Cubs Interested In Carlos Pena

[DewsSox79]

BA is never important. He has the same 130 point differential there. He gets his BA up this year, which WILL happen, because a .222 BABIP is not sustainable, and he is back at the .350 OBP range or better. What is wrong with a .350 OBP out of a 1B, who is going to slug around .500 in Wrigley? That's a .850 OPS out of a stop gap 1B. I'll take that.

It is when the last two years you are at .227 and .196.

 

[Captain Obvious]

It is when the last two years you are at .227 and .196.

Why? I am simply going to ask why it matters that he has a low BA. I don't see what is wrong with a .227, when you have a 130 point differential with your OBP. Is there something wrong with a .356 OBP?

I understand that last year was not good, but it isn't because of a .196 BA, it's because with the 130 point differential, he's only at .325 OBP. However, like I have said 12,000 times, that will not be the same next year, as a .222 BABIP is unsustainable and thus, he will have a higher BA, which equals a higher OBP.

 

[Capt. Serious]

he will be overpaid for what he is. I see no value in him whatsoever. The sox dont need another SO machine with a shitty BA and OBP that may hit an occasional Homerun.

Do you actually believe teams will give big money to a guy who hit below .200 this past season?

 

[DewsSox79]

Why? I am simply going to ask why it matters that he has a low BA. I don't see what is wrong with a .227, when you have a 130 point differential with your OBP. Is there something wrong with a .356 OBP?

I understand that last year was not good, but it isn't because of a .196 BA, it's because with the 130 point differential, he's only at .325 OBP. However, like I have said 12,000 times, that will not be the same next year, as a .222 BABIP is unsustainable and thus, he will have a higher BA, which equals a higher OBP.

you cannot state that his BA will be greater than .196

if he is batting .227 with a .356obp i have a problem with that...yes.

 

[Captain Obvious]

you cannot state that his BA will be greater than .196

if he is batting .227 with a .356obp i have a problem with that...yes.

Can I ask why you have a problem with that?

Yes, I can state that his BA will be greater than .196. He had a .222 BABIP last year. That is just not sustainable. It is too low for him to stay like that. His career average is .279. He is flat out under performing his true talent level.

 

[DewsSox79]

Can I ask why you have a problem with that?

Yes, I can state that his BA will be greater than .196. He had a .222 BABIP last year. That is just not sustainable. It is too low for him to stay like that. His career average is .279. He is flat out under performing his true talent level.

Please tell me the winning lottery numbers for Tuesdays big game. anyway.......

His OBP is not high enough to justify his salary. Carlos Pena is not getting on base enough for me, real simple, if you arent going to hit the ball, than dont SO and please take a few more bases. yay! .356 OBP! yippie!

 

[Captain Obvious]

Please tell me the winning lottery numbers for Tuesdays big game. anyway.......

His OBP is not high enough to justify his salary. Carlos Pena is not getting on base enough for me, real simple, if you arent going to hit the ball, than dont SO and please take a few more bases. yay! .356 OBP! yippie!

So I guess Justin Upton, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn aren't worth 8 million either.

Read the article, Dewey. It's not that hard. K's don't mean SHIT!!!! THEY DONT MEAN SHIT.

A few more bases? He was in the top 75 of total bases and top 20 in walks in 09. Why are you being so hard headed? It is easy to see this.

 

[Lefty]

4.5 MM is what 1 win is worth right now. Where you don't agree with it or not, it is fact.

4.5 MM is what teams are paying per win, that's not what a win is worth, there's a pretty big difference there. And because of that difference, what teams as a whole are paying per win doesn't mean shit, because since that 4.5 MM figure was divined only by looking at free agents, we can be sure that almost each and every one of them is overpaid, or at the very least over valued. This is what's called the "winner's curse" in common value auctions, with MLB Free Agency being a rather nice analogue.

Regardless, he is out of the AL East, he will see an increase in production.

Here you go again with this divisional approach to changing environments, and it hasn't gotten any less stupid. Look, I know that you think because teams play an unbalanced schedule with regards to intra-divisional and intra-league games, it is wise to approach environment changes not on a league-to-league basis, but on a division-to-division one. But look, there's a reason why people aren't doing this on a grandiose scale: it's overstating the situation, by like, a lot, because who is to say that the games a team plays against a really good divisional opponent would not be played or at least equaled by a different series or set of series against opponents throughout the rest of the league? Regardless of division, teams will play roughly the equivalent of their respective league averages throughout the season, because while the schedule may be unbalanced as far as divisional play goes, there are still a ton of games played.

And even if some tiny shred of a reliable (this last bit is highly unlikely, but I'll toss you this bone just to show how incredibly asinine your overall point is) difference were to be found with regards to "toughness" of competition played against, there is absolutely no reason to believe that said difference would be any greater (if it is at all) than the change in opponent ability seen when changing leagues. And, for the fourth time this month: the AL and NL have gotten extremely close to one another as far as ability goes, with almost no difference arising in the 2010 season.

Oh yeah, and Carlos Pena is going to be now four years removed from what was by far the best season of his career, has been trending downward ever since, and that one fantastic season also occurred at age 29, right around his peak. He's a big, lumbering, power-hitting first baseman, and those don't tend to age all that well, so while we can reasonably expect his BABIP to increase next season, and perhaps his other statistics in lock-step, it's an awful lot to hope for another well-above-average season from him, and his career averages (which are helped out immensely by those two seasons that came completely out of nowhere) are probably the best one can reasonably hope for. Oh yeah, and for the record, his 162-game WAR average is 1.9, or to put it differently, decidedly not worth 9 MM a year by your own asinine judging system.

 

[The Bandit]

i would go for him or berkman. who else is there? Dunn? haha yeah ok keep dreamin. we need a fill in Pena is perfect.

 

[DewsSox79]

4.5 MM is what teams are paying per win, that's not what a win is worth, there's a pretty big difference there. And because of that difference, what teams as a whole are paying per win doesn't mean shit, because since that 4.5 MM figure was divined only by looking at free agents, we can be sure that almost each and every one of them is overpaid, or at the very least over valued. This is what's called the "winner's curse" in common value auctions, with MLB Free Agency being a rather nice analogue.



Here you go again with this divisional approach to changing environments, and it hasn't gotten any less stupid. Look, I know that you think because teams play an unbalanced schedule with regards to intra-divisional and intra-league games, it is wise to approach environment changes not on a league-to-league basis, but on a division-to-division one. But look, there's a reason why people aren't doing this on a grandiose scale: it's overstating the situation, by like, a lot, because who is to say that the games a team plays against a really good divisional opponent would not be played or at least equaled by a different series or set of series against opponents throughout the rest of the league? Regardless of division, teams will play roughly the equivalent of their respective league averages throughout the season, because while the schedule may be unbalanced as far as divisional play goes, there are still a ton of games played.

And even if some tiny shred of a reliable (this last bit is highly unlikely, but I'll toss you this bone just to show how incredibly asinine your overall point is) difference were to be found with regards to "toughness" of competition played against, there is absolutely no reason to believe that said difference would be any greater (if it is at all) than the change in opponent ability seen when changing leagues. And, for the fourth time this month: the AL and NL have gotten extremely close to one another as far as ability goes, with almost no difference arising in the 2010 season.

Oh yeah, and Carlos Pena is going to be now four years removed from what was by far the best season of his career, has been trending downward ever since, and that one fantastic season also occurred at age 29, right around his peak. He's a big, lumbering, power-hitting first baseman, and those don't tend to age all that well, so while we can reasonably expect his BABIP to increase next season, and perhaps his other statistics in lock-step, it's an awful lot to hope for another well-above-average season from him, and his career averages (which are helped out immensely by those two seasons that came completely out of nowhere) are probably the best one can reasonably hope for. Oh yeah, and for the record, his 162-game WAR average is 1.9, or to put it differently, decidedly not worth 9 MM a year by your own asinine judging system.

well said!

 

[DewsSox79]

and on a side note...no new news...only links right now have the nats as a big suitor

 

[Jntg4]

Go to the shit Cubs or the slightly shittier Nationals? Hmm...?

 

[Captain Obvious]

4.5 MM is what teams are paying per win, that's not what a win is worth, there's a pretty big difference there. And because of that difference, what teams as a whole are paying per win doesn't mean shit, because since that 4.5 MM figure was divined only by looking at free agents, we can be sure that almost each and every one of them is overpaid, or at the very least over valued. This is what's called the "winner's curse" in common value auctions, with MLB Free Agency being a rather nice analogue.



Here you go again with this divisional approach to changing environments, and it hasn't gotten any less stupid. Look, I know that you think because teams play an unbalanced schedule with regards to intra-divisional and intra-league games, it is wise to approach environment changes not on a league-to-league basis, but on a division-to-division one. But look, there's a reason why people aren't doing this on a grandiose scale: it's overstating the situation, by like, a lot, because who is to say that the games a team plays against a really good divisional opponent would not be played or at least equaled by a different series or set of series against opponents throughout the rest of the league? Regardless of division, teams will play roughly the equivalent of their respective league averages throughout the season, because while the schedule may be unbalanced as far as divisional play goes, there are still a ton of games played.

And even if some tiny shred of a reliable (this last bit is highly unlikely, but I'll toss you this bone just to show how incredibly asinine your overall point is) difference were to be found with regards to "toughness" of competition played against, there is absolutely no reason to believe that said difference would be any greater (if it is at all) than the change in opponent ability seen when changing leagues. And, for the fourth time this month: the AL and NL have gotten extremely close to one another as far as ability goes, with almost no difference arising in the 2010 season.

Oh yeah, and Carlos Pena is going to be now four years removed from what was by far the best season of his career, has been trending downward ever since, and that one fantastic season also occurred at age 29, right around his peak. He's a big, lumbering, power-hitting first baseman, and those don't tend to age all that well, so while we can reasonably expect his BABIP to increase next season, and perhaps his other statistics in lock-step, it's an awful lot to hope for another well-above-average season from him, and his career averages (which are helped out immensely by those two seasons that came completely out of nowhere) are probably the best one can reasonably hope for. Oh yeah, and for the record, his 162-game WAR average is 1.9, or to put it differently, decidedly not worth 9 MM a year by your own asinine judging system.

No, a win is worth 4.5 MM. Actually, the value of a win went down this year to 4 MM, I had not checked into that. Cliff Lee, for example was worth $28.3 MM, while he had a 7.1 WAR. That comes out at like 3.95ish. He made $8 MM, so he was getting paid a little over 1 MM per win.

To the bolded part, that is not true. In the AL East had the highest winning percentage of any division in either league.

My judging system is the one used by Fangraphs. Nice try.

 

[Lefty]

No, a win is worth 4.5 MM. Actually, the value of a win went down this year to 4 MM, I had not checked into that. Cliff Lee, for example was worth $28.3 MM, while he had a 7.1 WAR. That comes out at like 3.95ish. He made $8 MM, so he was getting paid a little over 1 MM per win.

To the bolded part, that is not true. In the AL East had the highest winning percentage of any division in either league.

My judging system is the one used by Fangraphs. Nice try.

Oh. My. God.

1) Altering the numbers does not change the fact that this system of "dollar worth" you use does not actually mean that each win is worth X amount of dollars. Let me try this again: those numbers are representative of what that kind of production would garner in salary based on the weighted average of salary per WAR of free agents. Now, because of that (they are only looking at free agents) we can be sure that those figures are more than a bit dubious, because almost every free agent (at least the ones worth their weight in salt) is overpaid, or at the very least overvalued. That's called the Winner's Curse. This does not mean that if you want Y amount of WAR you are going to have to pay X amount of dollars, and it certainly doesn't mean that X is a reasonable number given the player's services. It's very clear that you do not understand this yet, but try again.

2) So what the AL East had high winning percentages? Who cares? That does nothing to show that a player on a team in the AL East faces markedly better talent throughout the course of a season than a player in some other division, even though that last bit is exactly what you are arguing. Christ.

3) Yeah, I know it's the FanGraphs system, that doesn't make it infallible or applicable in every/any case you choose.