Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

TC in Mississippi · Nov 21, 2017

beckdawg said:
Yeah the cards got a slap on the wrist comparatively. This punishment and what boston got was pretty fair

I don't think this was fair at all.

beckdawg · Nov 21, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
I don't think this was fair at all.

Why not? If you're saying the cards wasn't fair then sure I agree. But Boston losing all the players they lost for bundling seemed fair to me. This effectively is what boston did on a larger scale. If there's anything over punitive it would be the punishment until 2023 or whatever but they fucked with 2015 and 16 and were planning to do the same thing in 2018. Gotta put your foot down somewhere.

TC in Mississippi · Nov 21, 2017

beckdawg said:
Why not? If you're saying the cards wasn't fair then sure I agree. But Boston losing all the players they lost for bundling seemed fair to me. This effectively is what boston did on a larger scale. If there's anything over punitive it would be the punishment until 2023 or whatever but they fucked with 2015 and 16 and were planning to do the same thing in 2018. Gotta put your foot down somewhere.

They came down hard on Atlanta because everyone in the league is doing this and they can't punish them all. That's not fair on it's face. issue stern warnings, take away a couple of players but this is overkill and all because cleaning up the international signin process Manfred's pet project.

beckdawg · Nov 21, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
They came down hard on Atlanta because everyone in the league is doing this and they can't punish them all. That's not fair on it's face. issue stern warnings, take away a couple of players but this is overkill and all because cleaning up the international signin process Manfred's pet project.

The assumption is that everyone is doing it. Proving that is a separate issue. And what you're suggesting is essentially what they did to Boston and Atlanta still tried doing package deals after the fact. If you don't come down hard teams were going to keep challenging the system because clearly they didn't see what happened to Boston as enough of a deterrent.

And frankly I'd be rather surprised if the cubs were doing this. Are other teams? Maybe but like I said you gotta prove it. I'm not entirely sure this will be limited to Atlanta either. I haven't heard much talk recently but when the initial word broke about MLB looking into Atlanta there was mention that other teams would be looked at. Maybe nothing comes from that and they just sweep it under the rug but clearly Atlanta was the least careful when toeing the line between right and wrong.

Diehardfan · Nov 21, 2017

TC in Mississippi said:
They came down hard on Atlanta because everyone in the league is doing this and they can't punish them all. That's not fair on it's face. issue stern warnings, take away a couple of players but this is overkill and all because cleaning up the international signin process Manfred's pet project.

I was thinking the same thing. Anyone who thinks only Boston and Atlanta are doing this is pretty naive. They've nailed one in each league now with intimidation clearly in mind for the rest of MLB. Not fair, but when breaking the rules one would be foolish to expect a fair shake when they get caught.

beckdawg · Nov 21, 2017

Diehardfan said:
I was thinking the same thing. Anyone who thinks only Boston and Atlanta are doing this is pretty naive. They've nailed one in each league now with intimidation clearly in mind for the rest of MLB. Not fair, but when breaking the rules one would be foolish to expect a fair shake when they get caught.

Is this really coming down that hard though? I mean look you lose 12 players then sure it's going to look like a big deal. But they were all signed in 2016 as far as I can tell. That punishment is exactly the same thing that happened to Boston which people didn't seem to care about. They were already on the 2 year $300k only ban for 17-18 for over spending the limit a la the cubs. in 19-20 they can only sign for $10k or less. Boston when they got in trouble were completely barred from signing players for a year. So that is a little worse maybe. I mean they can still sign people where as boston couldn't but it's obviously 2 years vs 1. And from 2020-21 they lose half of their IFA pool. I think the fact that the scale of players involved in this is double what Boston had is the reason they have 2 years at basically nothing to boston's 1 and also the 2 additional years of half their pool. They're also losing a 3rd round pick for improper extra benefits to a previous draft pick.

So my question is if that's not "fair" then what is? Clearly what they did was worse than what boston did. So losing the 12 players and 1 year ban on signing is a must. And then you have to do something more to them than that because the larger scope of what they did. Is effectively 1 extra year of no signings and 2 additional years at half your pool too much? I don't think so.

Ultimately the "everyone is doing it" excuse doesn't absolve you. They did something that is against the rules and got punished. Should MLB investigate more teams? Probably but you have to have a valid reason to start an investigation otherwise you're having MLB doing witch hunts on teams and do you really want that?

beckdawg · Nov 21, 2017

Also I knew i wasn't just making this up in my head. MLB is also investigating 15 teams

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...estigated-in-connection-with-early-ifa-deals/

beckdawg · Nov 21, 2017

So because i'm a crazy person into prospects I looked into the prospects the Braves lost as other than Maitan i don't really know much about them. Maitan by the way was considered a generational talent a la Miggy Cabrera when he was signed. Results so far haven't been spectacular with him but that's the kind of talent scouts viewed him as and he was already a top 50 prospect for most people.

These come from tomahawktake.com's midseason rankings

8. Kevin Maitan, IF, GCL Braves

Considered one of the most impressive 16 year-old international prospects since a Miguel – whether it’d be Sano or Cabrera, depending on your take, Maitan is a legit plus future power and plus future contact. Scouts have said one or both tools could even grade as double plus in the future. Defensively, Maitan won’t be a shortstop long-term, as he’s already filled out to roughly 6’4″-ish and 215ish “cut” pounds based on videos and pictures I’ve seen from extended spring and scouting reports I’ve read/heard as well. Maitan does have high-level skills in the infield with a legit plus arm and smooth actions in the infield that will play to a plus defensive level at third, essentially giving Maitan to have four legit plus tools, which is why you see him ranked so highly. A switch-hitter, Maitan has two distinct swings, but they’re both oriented well for each side of the plate, and he has very good pitch and zone recognition for a teen. It will be very exciting to see how he develops, and there is every reason to think that he could be as high as #1 on this list if he shows out this season in his pro debut.

22. Yunior Severino, IF, GCL Braves

Of the non-Maitan 2016 IFA signees, Soto may have the best chance of sticking at short with his elite glove. Pena may have the best pure hitting projection, with a projectable bat. However, Severino may be the best overall package of the trio. Severino has incredibly quick wrists from both sides of the plate, a good frame, and the type of barrel to ball feel that is advanced at his age. He does have a lot of bat movement as the bat enters the zone, which leads to inconsistency in the ability of quality contact he is able to generate. Severino opened the year already with the DSL, before earning the bump to the GCL. He didn’t hit for a great average with DSL, but he showed an excellent eye, going for a slash line of .189/.348/.297 with a pair of doubles and a triple, posting an 8/6 BB/K over 46 plate appearances. Severino played second base with the DSL club, and it’s widely considered that he will move from shortstop, where he was signed, so that move was a good sight to see. Severino still struggles with his comfort around the second base bag, and there are some who think his eventual home could end up being a corner outfield spot.

31. Yenci Pena, IF, DSL Braves

The middle infielders of the 2016 Atlanta Braves international free agent signee class really are divided into two groups – those who are Kevin Maitan and those who are not. Of that latter group, each seemed to have a thing he stood most in comparison to the rest. We examined Livan Soto already, who was the best glove among the non-Maitan MI’s. Pena was the best pure bat among the group. He may not project for double-plus power or contact, but one could project Pena for plus ratings in both, and he still had the speed to his game to be above average there as well. Defensively is more of a question as Pena has struggled and is already 6’2″ and growing still as one of the youngest signees in the class. He’s got enough arm to play at third possibly, but the team is playing him at short currently in the DSL to allow his bat to transition to pro ball more easily. The results have been brutal defensively, but he has been gaining in confidence at the plate, which has been a positive.

42. Livan Soto, IF, GCL Braves

Of the four “shortstops” that the Atlanta Braves signed for seven figures in the most recent IFA period, Soto is the one that is a sure shortstop of the group. He’s got excellent instincts at short along with smooth movements and soft hands. He has a plus arm as well, though he can get a bit rushed in his throws. Soto has a very high baseball IQ, which has allowed his bat to play up enough at this point, though his frame is exceptionally lean at 5’11” and 160 pounds. He has room to grow and develop more power, but his natural speed is only above average, with him using his baseball smarts to play up that speed on the base paths. Soto has not played this spring yet, starting at GCL, alongside two of the other three guys signed with him. It is notable that both Yunior Severino and Yenci Pena have played some in the Dominican Summer League, and only Pena played shortstop, which is interesting as he has always been considered the most certain to move off of shortstop going forward, so the team got a look at Pena’s bat and Severino’s ability to handle another defensive position in the DSL.

48. Juan Carlos Negret, OF, DSL Braves

The Braves have had mixed results in Cuba, having missed out on signing Hector Olivera and then finding him to be a poor choice of a signing when they did trade for him eventually (though trading away Olivera brought in Matt Kemp, so there is a silver lining). The Braves have seen two offseason Cuban signees have a ton of success in 2017, and Negret is the lowest leel of the two. Negret just turned 18 on June 19th, and his listed size of 6’1″ and 190 pounds could be a bit generous, but he’s already shown very well in his first experience with the Braves. The Braves sent Negret to the Dominican Summer League this season, and he’s hit very well, going .358/.507/.604 with 8 doubles, a triple, a home run, and 6 stolen bases, showing very good plate discipline with a 10/14 BB/K ratio over his 14 games. However, Negret did not play with the DSL since June 20th, and some I’ve talked with who scout the DSL have said that he’s really out of place in the league right now, so perhaps the Braves could already be considering a move with Negret.

From scout.com at the time of his signing

ABRAHAN GUTIERREZ – C – Venezuela – AGE: 16 – DOB: 10/31/1999 – B:R – T:R – 6-1, 200
$3.5 m
Ranked 18th by MLB.com – Ranked 15th by Baseball America
COMMENT: Last year he was being called “another Mike Piazza.” Gutierrez’s status has dimmed a bit, but the Braves still believe he could become an elite prospect. His fielding gets the best grades as of now, with a strong arm and good mechanics behind the plate. But the feeling is he can become an offensive player – maybe not to the level of Piazza, but perhaps better than Christian Bethancourt.

Only others who appear to warrant any discussion were Juan Contreras(BA: 41st), Yefri del Rosario(BA: 26th). Atlanta had a pretty deep farm system so even guys in the 40 range are probably top 30-ish in a normal farm system and they're losing 5 guys that fit that. Should be interesting to see how this plays out because part of the issue with signing guys at 16 is you're not really sure how good they are. The older they get the more confident you become. And with a lot of teams having used their IFA money already or now about to on Ohtani these guys may wait til july when pools restock. If they do the cubs then are no longer limited.

beckdawg · Nov 21, 2017

One more interesting aspect of all this braves stuff.

The players will have restrictions on their free agency. They will be eligible to sign with another club for another signing bonus beginning on Dec. 5 up until Jan. 15. After Jan. 15, the player is still allowed to sign but cannot receive an additional signing bonus. Only the amount of the signing bonus beyond $200,000 will count toward a team’s signing bonus pool. Players are allowed to re-sign with the Braves, but if they choose to do so, they must wait until May 1 to sign with them and can’t receive an additional signing bonus.

A club that signs one of the players has the option of counting that player’s bonus against either its current 2017-18 international bonus pool or against its pool for the 2018-19 signing period, which opens next year on July 2. A club can’t combine bonus pool money from both pools to sign an individual player, however. While clubs can trade for additional bonus pool money for this year, they technically can’t do so yet for the 2018-19 signing period, since teams have to wait until July 2 next year to make trades for 2018-19 pool space.

^ Makes this very interesting for the cubs because presumably if they are allowed to count toward next year's budget the restriction of $300k should also be gone.

TL1961 · Nov 21, 2017

CSF77 said:
Not sure if the Cubs have the trade weight for that.

Archer and Colome would solve the TOR and closer. But the weight they carry is around 6 WAR.

A return would be something like:

Russell: super 2
Happ: full 6 years control
Schwarber: 5 years control
Alzolay: AA

That would be just to start talking.

Now the impact would be Baez at SS. A Def. downgrade. Bat a push. 2B depth down to Zobrist. No LF.

So in general to net a TOR and a closer you Swiss cheese the diamond.

I highly doubt Theo does this. The point of trading is to save on payroll but trading out controllable talent forces payroll into replacements as that talent is not MLR.

So this is why this is not likely at all.

Honestly they should just pony up for Reed and Yu. Then go internal for the 5 and the pen.

If you look at their depth they have Montgomery and Butler as the 4/5. Pen is Edwards/Strop/Wilson/Rondon/Maples/Rob Z/Grimm

Signing Yu pushes Montgomery to the pen and Rob Z out.

Signing Reed pushes Grimm out.

That leaves Rondon and he can be replaced by
Matt Carasiti.

This leaves the team intact at semi reasonable cost.

This post is so far off base, Lester could pick it off.

CSF77 · Nov 21, 2017

TL1961 said:
This post is so far off base, Lester could pick it off.

It was a respond to Chi’s trade to the Rays. To nab those 3 you have to center a trade with a core player. Cubs will never trade Bryant, Rizzo or Contreras but Russell is the largest trade chip they have. He has put up a 3+ WAR season in 2016 and is a top 5 def SS. Seeing how that is prime real-estate it pushes the needle.

That said trading for Archer costs talent off of the 25 due to a lack of farm talent. That is in reality a push or net loss of talent. The only way to improve is via FA.

beckdawg · Nov 22, 2017

I still don't see tampa trading Archer. They would basically have to go into full sell mode in which case who knows what happens. But if they are still trying to compete which given their statements seems to be the case I think they are going to move Colome. He's a good closer but the emphasis on that is good. We're not talking Chapman levels here even if you want to view his 2016 numbers as the "real" him. You're talking about a guy with a career a career 7.99 k/9 albeit about half of the time coming from starts which tend to lower your k rate comparable to relieving. I think he's ideally a ace set up guy on a playoff team with someone like Davis/Chapman/Jansen/Miller behind him but if you don't have that guy he's not terrible in the role.

Frankly that's sort of why I think he makes sense for the cubs. With the Rays you can likely find a guy for $2-3 million to give you 80-90% of the 2.3 wins he put up the past 2 years. Just as an example here Brian Duensing put up 0.7 wins last year for $2 mil. Now a logical question might be why would the cubs not go that route if it's "poor" value? My answer to that is a couple of reasons. First you're talking about a championship caliber team with the cubs. Marginal increases in wins near the top end are harder to find. What I mean by that is that to take a bottom 5 team to 80 wins isn't really that hard. If you make smart moves you're only really talking about 35 wins vs replacement level players for 25 guys. What's difficult is separating yourself from a 90 win team to a 100 win team. In the regular season, that 0.4 or whatever difference between someone like Colome and someone like Duensing probably doesn't matter. But in the playoffs a difference in talent there can mean the difference between advancing and going home. And in Tampa's case that slim margin is SUPER expensive to pay for. $3-4 million doesn't sound like a lot of money in baseball terms but it represents about 5% of Tampa's opening day payroll in 2017.

I also think that it makes a lot of sense for both the cubs and tampa for a couple of other reasons. First, it gives the cubs something that they sorely lack which is bullpen certainty for the next 3 years. Right now after 2018 you're looking at Strop having a 2019 option, Wilson will be a FA, Edwards will be arb 1, Monty will be arb 1, I assume they DFA Grimm this offseason and from there you're talking about Eddie Butler, Matt Carasiti, Luke Farrell, Maples, Cory Mazzoni, Alec Mills, Randy Rosario, Tseng, Underwood, and Zastryzny as the only other arms on the 40 man and none of them have really proven much in the majors.

The second reason I think it makes a lot of senes is because it sets you up perfectly to approach Davis. Assuming you make the trade early this offseason you can approach Davis with the idea that if prices go way too high you have Colome in your back pocket. On the other hand, if Davis' price remains reasonable you can still sign him and use Colome to set him up and suddenly your bullpen looks a lot stronger with those two adding to Edwards and Monty. Strop would arguably be your 5th best arm and he was almost as good as Colome the past 2 years(1.8 fWAR).

And the last reason I think it makes sense is the Rays and Cubs have the piece each other need. The rays are never going to be a team that can totally tear it down like Houston/Cubs did because they don't make enough money year to year to survive that sort of attendance crash. So what they really need is good players who can make the team competitive now. And if there's one thing the cubs have in spades it's guys like that. Whether you're talking about someone like Bote who was just added to the 40 man or Caratini or Zagunis or a whole slew of other position players, the cubs have quality MLB ready bats. Tampa has pitching in spades. What they need besides near ready players is bats.

chibears55 · Nov 22, 2017

Twins are interested in Justin Wilson

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...e-a-run-at-acquiring-justin-wilson-from-cubs/

Be interesting to see what the Twins are willing to offer up for him

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beckdawg · Nov 22, 2017

chibears55 said:
Twins are interested in Justin Wilson

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...e-a-run-at-acquiring-justin-wilson-from-cubs/

Be interesting to see what the Twins are willing to offer up for him

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This i don't get(idea not chibears comment). Like cool if minny wants wilson badly but for what? Presumably if they are going after wilson they are trying to compete so Santana would be a firm no. I'd love to get a shot at Jose Berrios but he seems like a "**** you NO." Kyle Gibson had a 5 ERA last year and that's basically his career ERA too. Phil Hughes looks like a disaster contract for them. Adalberto Mejia had a 4.50 era. So clearly it's not going to be a guy off the starting pitching staff at the MLB level which is the cubs clearest need other than ya know a closer. In terms of minor league pitching, Stephen Gonsalves would be very interesting and is in AAA but he's also a top 75 prospect which seems a bit rich for Wilson though maybe not. I suppose Candeario was back half of the top 100 and paredes was a interesting young guy. Tyler Jay is in A+. Felix Jorge is in AAA but he doesn't really seem like enough. He's young and all but there's like no upside there. He's at best a #5 starter.

Only guy that some what makes sense to me would be Fernando Romero. He's in AA(likely starts in AAA) so he's a little farther back than you'd want. He's a big time ground ball guy regularly posting over 50% rates which is something theo and company really like in starters and his BB/K rates are pretty good. Not amazing but pretty good. So, I can kinda see that being a realistic offer but are the cubs really going to bite on a guy who's at best half a year away from the majors and probably a full year?

chibears55 · Nov 22, 2017

beckdawg said:
This i don't get(idea not chibears comment). Like cool if minny wants wilson badly but for what? Presumably if they are going after wilson they are trying to compete so Santana would be a firm no. I'd love to get a shot at Jose Berrios but he seems like a "**** you NO." Kyle Gibson had a 5 ERA last year and that's basically his career ERA too. Phil Hughes looks like a disaster contract for them. Adalberto Mejia had a 4.50 era. So clearly it's not going to be a guy off the starting pitching staff at the MLB level which is the cubs clearest need other than ya know a closer. In terms of minor league pitching, Stephen Gonsalves would be very interesting and is in AAA but he's also a top 75 prospect which seems a bit rich for Wilson though maybe not. I suppose Candeario was back half of the top 100 and paredes was a interesting young guy. Tyler Jay is in A+. Felix Jorge is in AAA but he doesn't really seem like enough. He's young and all but there's like no upside there. He's at best a #5 starter.

Only guy that some what makes sense to me would be Fernando Romero. He's in AA(likely starts in AAA) so he's a little farther back than you'd want. He's a big time ground ball guy regularly posting over 50% rates which is something theo and company really like in starters and his BB/K rates are pretty good. Not amazing but pretty good. So, I can kinda see that being a realistic offer but are the cubs really going to bite on a guy who's at best half a year away from the majors and probably a full year?

My thinking is if cubs are willing to trade Wilson and Twins want him bad enough...
Id raid their farm system and try and grab a couple low end prospects...

Guys in this group..

20) Tyler Jay, LHP, Grade C+/B-:*Age 23, limited to 11.2 innings by shoulder impingement, posted 3.09 ERA with 19/4 K/BB in those innings between rehab work and Double-A; plus fastball and plus slider when healthy and he throws strikes but questions about durability have been long-standing; he could be really good if his arm doesn’t fall off. ETA late 2018 if healthy

OTHER GRADE C+:*Luis Arreaz, INF; Luke Bard, RHP; Charlie Barnes, LHP;*Nick Burdi, RHP;*John Curtiss, RHP;*Zack Granite, OF;*Felix Jorge, RHP; Landon Leach, RHP; Jose Miranda, INF; Ben Rortvedt, C;*Randy Rosario, LHP,*Aaron Slegers, RHP;*Kohl Stewart, RHP; Tyler Watson, LHP; Lachlan Wells, LHP; Tyler Wells, RHP

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beckdawg · Nov 22, 2017

chibears55 said:
My thinking is if cubs are willing to trade Wilson and Twins want him bad enough...
Id raid their farm system and try and grab a couple low end prospects...

Guys in this group..

20) Tyler Jay, LHP, Grade C+/B-:*Age 23, limited to 11.2 innings by shoulder impingement, posted 3.09 ERA with 19/4 K/BB in those innings between rehab work and Double-A; plus fastball and plus slider when healthy and he throws strikes but questions about durability have been long-standing; he could be really good if his arm doesn’t fall off. ETA late 2018 if healthy

OTHER GRADE C+:*Luis Arreaz, INF; Luke Bard, RHP; Charlie Barnes, LHP;*Nick Burdi, RHP;*John Curtiss, RHP;*Zack Granite, OF;*Felix Jorge, RHP; Landon Leach, RHP; Jose Miranda, INF; Ben Rortvedt, C;*Randy Rosario, LHP,*Aaron Slegers, RHP;*Kohl Stewart, RHP; Tyler Watson, LHP; Lachlan Wells, LHP; Tyler Wells, RHP

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Problem with Jay(besides being a fair distance away) is that they moved him back to a reliever. And to be fair here it's not like that was an unknown prior to him being drafted. At UIUC that's what he was... their closer. There's no one who really stands out in the others in that list.

chibears55 · Nov 22, 2017

beckdawg said:
Problem with Jay(besides being a fair distance away) is that they moved him back to a reliever. And to be fair here it's not like that was an unknown prior to him being drafted. At UIUC that's what he was... their closer. There's no one who really stands out in the others in that list.

No , but how much do you expect to get for Wilson

Guess it just depends on if cubs feel he will improve and help the pen in 2018...
My guess is theyll hold him unless Twins make a crazy offer, which i doubt

Im thinking he'll be better

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beckdawg · Nov 22, 2017

chibears55 said:
No , but how much do you expect to get for Wilson

Guess it just depends on if cubs feel he will improve and help the pen in 2018...
My guess is theyll hold him unless Twins make a crazy offer, which i doubt

Im thinking he'll be better

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It's not really about what I expect the cubs to get for him because it doesn't make much sense for a playoff caliber team to trade away a bullpen arm unless they are overwhelmed. So to give an actual answer to that question whomever they get has to be worth at least as much as Candelario was(back end top 100 prospect) and maybe a touch more given where Paredes is likely to be soon given how he's played. I doubt it comes down to a 1 for 1 trade even if it does happen but for the sake of simplicity I'd probably say if the cubs aren't getting a top 75 prospect then what's the point? Whether they can get that or not isn't really the point. There's only 2 reason to trade Wilson. The first is if you think he's just not what you bought at midseason. But does half a season *really* change that opinion? And more importantly if the twins are trying to buy the guy does that not make you think you were right in the first place and his bad performance was just luck or whatever you want to blame it on?

The second reason you'd trade Wilson is if a team just way over pays you. The cubs can replace him with money though that's not ideal. Twins probably can't avoid him using money so obviously that's part of the thought process in trading. So sure if Minny wants Wilson so bad they give you a very interesting piece make the deal. I'm not sure Minny would do that but again they appear to be the one targeting Wilson not the other way around with the cubs selling him.