CSF77
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- Apr 16, 2013
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I think people misunderstand development. It's not a magic cure all. By that I mean you can't just hire the best coaching and turn a average player into a super star. There's basically 3 types of players. There's relatively clean players with few flaws. They are almost always 1st round picks and usually top 15. The second group is players with interesting tools but flaws that hold them back. Arrieta is a good example of this. They tend to be gone by the end of the 5th round. There the draft/development phase is about taking a player with a flaw but otherwise tools you like and fixing the flaw to turn him into the first group of players. The third group is basically average tool organizational filler types. Rarely you can pull some gems out of this group but they are almost always players who changed something and became different players. Justin Turner comes to mind.
If you look at teams who are particularly good at developing something it's not like they just have amazing coaches. It's often a case of knowing for the right type of player to look for. If you've read Big Data Baseball by Travis Sawchik he talks specifically about PIT and how they identified guys who they felt they could fix by adding a 2 seam fastball when the current thinking in vogue was 4 seam high velocity fastballs. If you look at the current cubs regime and what they've done with hitters they've found guys who had good power and good eyes and cared less about position. For example, there's obviously Schwarber but many weren't sure Bryant would stay at 3B. Happ was a weird prospect because he wasn't the prototypical bat for a corner OF and he wasn't thought of as a 2B at the time of the draft.
In terms of expected outcomes, the second and third groups are sort of mirrors. High tool guys are high risk/reward. The org filler types are generally useful but almost never amount to much. If they make the majors they are almost always going to be bench guys. There's a non-0 percent chance of these guys turning into your Hendricks/Matt Carpenter/Justin Turner types. However, theres like 1200 picks in a given draft and probably 900 of the picks fall into this category. In a given draft I can't imagine you're getting more than 5-10 of these type of players. The second group of players has a higher success rate but they are also guys who could be out of baseball in 2-3 years if they can't make any improvement to their flaws.
Regardless, the game here is always a numbers game. You don't develop your way around that. You want as many picks as possible and you want as much slot money. And teams want the slot money to turn org filler type picks into tool type picks.
Talent is talent. When you say a pitcher has talent is normally means the ability to throw the ball in the 90’s. Honing talent is getting that fastball over the plate. Next tier is putting the fastball into a weak zone for a hitter. Finally finding ways to create movement to that fastball so it doesn’t sit there to be hammered.
That is all about development. Talent is just potential.