Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[CSF77]

They even found a way to tie Jonathan Lucroy to the cubs on MLB trade rumors this morning so there are even battier ideas out there.

They were tossing out teams with a opening. Most likely he goes to the Nats who need a better catcher.

 

[CSF77]

No reason to boil over here...

I just dont think he'll last, especially if they dont land Darvish..

Just my opinion [emoji16]


As far as Ross goes, Ross had a whole lot more connection going on..
Not just with Lester but also the front office...

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Ross Honestly did a great job as a Cub. Most of what he did was off of the field but he wasn’t a void when on either. You could say they missed his presence last year. The first half really reflects it.

But the job belongs to Contreras now. I do not want a personal catcher thing going on. Let Wilson run the staff and have a back up to give him a day off when needed. The fact they signed Gim just shows that they are going forward with Wilson and the personal catcher is a thing of the past.


Keeping Cartiani on the 25 forces playing time issues. It would be a mistake to bring him up just to see 100 AB’s. That role should be for a guy that is a vet and really is not learning anything.

The whole Darvish thing has been over played IMO. From what it looks like they are pushing up Alzolay’s time line anyways. He comes great but the eggs are not all in that basket.

 

[beckdawg]

I do not want a personal catcher thing going on.

What does it matter? If a pitchers feels more comfortable with a particular catcher and his performance increases because of that why wouldn't you consider it? That's not to say it's the only consideration but in a given year you get 32 starts give or take if fully healthy. Even if you have one guy start just with one pitcher it's not like Contreras is going to play 140-150 games. I imagine he'll get 120-130 tops.

 

[anotheridiot]

I was actually surprised when they took Ross off that last game, they turned Lester over to Contrares. I definitely expected him to want another personal catcher. But I dont think either of the replacements we had were even close to having the arm of Contrares. I think they threw out a high rate of baserunners, but not with a pitcher that refused to throw to the bases.

We cannot rule out the importance TheoJed put on the personal catcher though, look at how quick they got rid of montero when he threw jake under the bus

 

[CSF77]

What does it matter? If a pitchers feels more comfortable with a particular catcher and his performance increases because of that why wouldn't you consider it? That's not to say it's the only consideration but in a given year you get 32 starts give or take if fully healthy. Even if you have one guy start just with one pitcher it's not like Contreras is going to play 140-150 games. I imagine he'll get 120-130 tops.

Yadi avg in the 130’s for the most part and he is a Comp for him. Highest was 2016 at 147. Anything below 130 was injury related.

A catcher really shouldn’t be a pitchers caddy. He is there to help win games. If it was a language issue and it helped with communication then I would get a “one” year deal but Darvish speaks English and has worked with many American. catchers.

Even Gim said he signed because he wants to play for Maddon and Maddon had him talk to Jed. Gim said he wanted to earn the job in spring. He was on the Indians in 2016 and told Joe that he wanted to play for him then. So this has been a ongoing dialogue. Someone jumped on the connection and it has been blown out of proportion.

It comes down to Theo giving in to Yu. If he does then sure Gim and him matching up some games makes sense but there is a good chance Yu connects with Wilson also and they hit it off.

At the end of the day you want the guy in there that gives you the best chance at winning today. If Gim makes Yu a better starter then he does. If both catchers are neutral then the bat plays more.

 

[beckdawg]

Yadi avg in the 130’s for the most part and he is a Comp for him. Highest was 2016 at 147. Anything below 130 was injury related.

A catcher really shouldn’t be a pitchers caddy. He is there to help win games. If it was a language issue and it helped with communication then I would get a “one” year deal but Darvish speaks English and has worked with many American. catchers.

Even Gim said he signed because he wants to play for Maddon and Maddon had him talk to Jed. Gim said he wanted to earn the job in spring. He was on the Indians in 2016 and told Joe that he wanted to play for him then. So this has been a ongoing dialogue. Someone jumped on the connection and it has been blown out of proportion.

It comes down to Theo giving in to Yu. If he does then sure Gim and him matching up some games makes sense but there is a good chance Yu connects with Wilson also and they hit it off.

At the end of the day you want the guy in there that gives you the best chance at winning today. If Gim makes Yu a better starter then he does. If both catchers are neutral then the bat plays more.

And who's to say yadi playing that much was the "right" move? I mean look i said I could easily see Contreras playing 120-130 games. But There's really no reason for him to play more than that and if you absolutely had to do so you could play him in LF. Joe has done it before.

 

[beckdawg]

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with speedy OF Peter Bourjos.

Good defender for CF. Not much of a bat.

 

[chibears55]

Mark Gonzales

@MDGonzales

Cubs agree to terms on a minor league deal with speedy OF Peter Bourjos.

Good defender for CF. Not much of a bat.

Cubs going to have a pretty good team in Iowa with all the minor league signing theyve had

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[beckdawg]

Patrick Mooney
@PJ_Mooney
Source: Peter Bourjos has agreed to a minor-league deal with the #Cubs, as @MDGonzales reported. Bourjos will make $1.45 million if he makes the team as an extra outfielder.

And such

 

[beckdawg]

So something occurred to me about the Smyly signing. IMO there's a fairly good chance they effectively are buying a second round draft pick. There's reason to believe that if Smyly rehabs and returns to form that you could easily drop a QO on him. It'll probably be around $18 mil($17.4 mil this year). That's really not that much even for a decent back half of the rotation starter. For example, Chatwood is making around $13 mil AAV and Lackey the year prior as a #4 was making $16 mil. So, the risk of him accepting it seems minimal.

That's the other interesting thing about Darvish too. If his contract ends up being effectively a 2 year $45 mil deal because of the opt out they again will get another 2nd round pick. And thanks to Davis/Arrieta leaving they will have 2 second round picks as bonus for this forth coming draft. In a 4 year span they will have some what gamed the system by getting Fowler cheaply and netting a 1st round pick, then potentially getting 4 second round picks for Arrieta, Davis, Darvish and Smyly. I suppose they theoretically could also get one for Heyward but I strongly doubt he opts out.

It's kind of an interesting way to build contracts. You some what entice guys like Darvish to opt out by paying the more upfront and protect yourself on the back end while also potentially netting draft pick compensation.

 

[CSF77]

So something occurred to me about the Smyly signing. IMO there's a fairly good chance they effectively are buying a second round draft pick. There's reason to believe that if Smyly rehabs and returns to form that you could easily drop a QO on him. It'll probably be around $18 mil($17.4 mil this year). That's really not that much even for a decent back half of the rotation starter. For example, Chatwood is making around $13 mil AAV and Lackey the year prior as a #4 was making $16 mil. So, the risk of him accepting it seems minimal.

That's the other interesting thing about Darvish too. If his contract ends up being effectively a 2 year $45 mil deal because of the opt out they again will get another 2nd round pick. And thanks to Davis/Arrieta leaving they will have 2 second round picks as bonus for this forth coming draft. In a 4 year span they will have some what gamed the system by getting Fowler cheaply and netting a 1st round pick, then potentially getting 4 second round picks for Arrieta, Davis, Darvish and Smyly. I suppose they theoretically could also get one for Heyward but I strongly doubt he opts out.

It's kind of an interesting way to build contracts. You some what entice guys like Darvish to opt out by paying the more upfront and protect yourself on the back end while also potentially netting draft pick compensation.

That maybe true but it seems a expensive way to add more depth to a farm. A 2nd round pick is most likely not going to be a impact player. At that point you normally have quality college players vs the eliete guys. The highest projection players would be the HS players but they come with higher risk.

It kinda seems over the top honestly. Sure you take advantage of gaining picks when you can but going into it with the goal of a extra pick is a reach honestly. I really doubt that they signed Smyly with that intention. I see it as building depth. He may or may not come back as the same guy. He when down after looking his best as a pitcher so he has some intriguing upside when he returns and honestly may make the back end of the rotation a interesting situation in 2018 but I see it is a depth move vs a means to a end to gain draft picks.

Anyways they have not gotten one for Jake yet. Honestly I’m not sure if there is a ending date where they can be awarded one. Because Jake may end up not signed until that window passes at this point.

 

[anotheridiot]

Good defender for CF. Not much of a bat.

well, at least they wont have to pick one up in september again. Its not usually that this type of pinch runner defensive replacement is on the 25 man roster, its usually my first though of who could have been that last guy.

 

[beckdawg]

That maybe true but it seems a expensive way to add more depth to a farm. A 2nd round pick is most likely not going to be a impact player. At that point you normally have quality college players vs the eliete guys. The highest projection players would be the HS players but they come with higher risk.

It kinda seems over the top honestly. Sure you take advantage of gaining picks when you can but going into it with the goal of a extra pick is a reach honestly. I really doubt that they signed Smyly with that intention. I see it as building depth. He may or may not come back as the same guy. He when down after looking his best as a pitcher so he has some intriguing upside when he returns and honestly may make the back end of the rotation a interesting situation in 2018 but I see it is a depth move vs a means to a end to gain draft picks.

Anyways they have not gotten one for Jake yet. Honestly I’m not sure if there is a ending date where they can be awarded one. Because Jake may end up not signed until that window passes at this point.

First off the draft isn't about picks it's about slot money. The biggest issue a good team faces isn't exactly that they pick low. You have hurt players who fall all the time and guys with strong commits to college. The problem is you can't even take a chance on those players if you don't have the money to entice them to sign. The Schwarber draft was a good example of this. Because they saved money on him they got Cease, Sands and Steele in the middle of the first 10 rounds. Last year because they had money from Fowler they were able to get Estrada in the 5th IIRC. Second round slot money isn't a crazy amount but you're talking more than $750k. That may not seem like an earth shattering amount but keep in mind Estrada signed for $1 mil last year which was basically $750k over his slot.

As for Jake, the ending date is literally the draft. If he hasn't signed by then you don't get one but he's going to sign before June. And as for them signing Smyly for depth... I mean sure that may be a primary reason but I wouldn't put it past this front office to think the way I've suggested. They were the ones who came up with the concept of trading for soon to be FA in boston back when they had competitive balance A/B rules that eventually lead to the QO rule set.

Anyways, if I came off as suggesting that was the only reason they signed Smyly that wasn't my intention. What I meant was it was a clever offshoot of something they likely wanted to do anyways in adding depth. And people shouldn't scoff at the picks you get for FA's. They aren't a HUGE deal anymore like they used to be but what you have to realize is how tightly MLB is squeezing good teams. It is not REALLY hard to continually be a good team with the current rules. This is why we're seeing so many teams effectively tank. So finding anyway to game the system if you're a good team who wants to stay good is important. Sure HS prospects are volatile but having them is clearly better than not having anything.

 

[CSF77]

First off the draft isn't about picks it's about slot money. The biggest issue a good team faces isn't exactly that they pick low. You have hurt players who fall all the time and guys with strong commits to college. The problem is you can't even take a chance on those players if you don't have the money to entice them to sign. The Schwarber draft was a good example of this. Because they saved money on him they got Cease, Sands and Steele in the middle of the first 10 rounds. Last year because they had money from Fowler they were able to get Estrada in the 5th IIRC. Second round slot money isn't a crazy amount but you're talking more than $750k. That may not seem like an earth shattering amount but keep in mind Estrada signed for $1 mil last year which was basically $750k over his slot.

As for Jake, the ending date is literally the draft. If he hasn't signed by then you don't get one but he's going to sign before June. And as for them signing Smyly for depth... I mean sure that may be a primary reason but I wouldn't put it past this front office to think the way I've suggested. They were the ones who came up with the concept of trading for soon to be FA in boston back when they had competitive balance A/B rules that eventually lead to the QO rule set.

Anyways, if I came off as suggesting that was the only reason they signed Smyly that wasn't my intention. What I meant was it was a clever offshoot of something they likely wanted to do anyways in adding depth. And people shouldn't scoff at the picks you get for FA's. They aren't a HUGE deal anymore like they used to be but what you have to realize is how tightly MLB is squeezing good teams. It is not REALLY hard to continually be a good team with the current rules. This is why we're seeing so many teams effectively tank. So finding anyway to game the system if you're a good team who wants to stay good is important. Sure HS prospects are volatile but having them is clearly better than not having anything.

Slot cash helps if you have a top 10 pick or have a plan of attack to nab college commitments by buying them out over priced.

Imo the true talent is in the international field and that should be the plan of attack. Gaining resourse there makes more sense as that return has historically been better in general. The draft in general the rule is fail and the exception is success.

 

[beckdawg]

Slot cash helps if you have a top 10 pick or have a plan of attack to nab college commitments by buying them out over priced.

It helps regardless. You might not be able to go after the absolute best guys who are hard commits but there's plenty of guys who if you have extra money to spend are worth the gamble. Cubs top 30 comes out tomorrow so this is a bit dated but the 2017 list on mlb.com finished with Steele(5th round picks $1 mil bonus) at #10, D.J. Wilson(4th round pick $1.3 mil) at #12, Estrada(6th round pick $1 mil) at #19 and Bryan Hudson(3rd round $1.1 mil) at #27. All of those players are roughly $750k or so over their slot and you'd have inferior prospects in the cubs system without that additional money. And obviously that's to say nothing of Cease who thus far was their best gamble. And of course you have Sands who thus far just hasn't panned out.

Are you going to build a franchise around any of those guys? Of course not but they add significant system depth. The fact of the matter is after the start of the third round you're rarely getting more than a league average player at best unless you pay them significantly more. For example, Hatch is probably best case a #3/4 starter. He's ok but you're not going to sustainably build much with guys at his level. However, with additional slot money even as little as $750k you can turn 4th/5th/6th round picks into talent level of 2nd/3rd round picks. And when you're talking about a purely average draft having maybe 3-4 guys out of the top 10 rounds who feasibly could reach the majors adding additional guys to that is a big deal.

Imo the true talent is in the international field and that should be the plan of attack. Gaining resourse there makes more sense as that return has historically been better in general. The draft in general the rule is fail and the exception is success.

This isn't really accurate either. Historically IFA has been far more of a gamble. Don't believe me? Look at the top 30 IFA's on mlb.com from 2014. Anderson Espinoza is the only great name. 2013 looks better because the cubs pulled out Torres and Eloy and the Sox got devers but that's an atypical year. The best of 2012 top guys is probably Richard Urena. Now sure you'll have under rated guys like Castro who sign for nothing and pop up but those are far harder to find.

Also you can't "gain resources" in IFA anymore. Everyone starts with the same pools. While true you can acquire more via trade you have to have other teams part with that and even then there's a limit. That's not to say IFA isn't a way to bring in talent but it's far less reliable than you're making it out to be.

 

[CSF77]

It helps regardless. You might not be able to go after the absolute best guys who are hard commits but there's plenty of guys who if you have extra money to spend are worth the gamble. Cubs top 30 comes out tomorrow so this is a bit dated but the 2017 list on mlb.com finished with Steele(5th round picks $1 mil bonus) at #10, D.J. Wilson(4th round pick $1.3 mil) at #12, Estrada(6th round pick $1 mil) at #19 and Bryan Hudson(3rd round $1.1 mil) at #27. All of those players are roughly $750k or so over their slot and you'd have inferior prospects in the cubs system without that additional money. And obviously that's to say nothing of Cease who thus far was their best gamble. And of course you have Sands who thus far just hasn't panned out.

Are you going to build a franchise around any of those guys? Of course not but they add significant system depth. The fact of the matter is after the start of the third round you're rarely getting more than a league average player at best unless you pay them significantly more. For example, Hatch is probably best case a #3/4 starter. He's ok but you're not going to sustainably build much with guys at his level. However, with additional slot money even as little as $750k you can turn 4th/5th/6th round picks into talent level of 2nd/3rd round picks. And when you're talking about a purely average draft having maybe 3-4 guys out of the top 10 rounds who feasibly could reach the majors adding additional guys to that is a big deal.



This isn't really accurate either. Historically IFA has been far more of a gamble. Don't believe me? Look at the top 30 IFA's on mlb.com from 2014. Anderson Espinoza is the only great name. 2013 looks better because the cubs pulled out Torres and Eloy and the Sox got devers but that's an atypical year. The best of 2012 top guys is probably Richard Urena. Now sure you'll have under rated guys like Castro who sign for nothing and pop up but those are far harder to find.

Also you can't "gain resources" in IFA anymore. Everyone starts with the same pools. While true you can acquire more via trade you have to have other teams part with that and even then there's a limit. That's not to say IFA isn't a way to bring in talent but it's far less reliable than you're making it out to be.

IDK about that. On the Cubs: Contreras/Candelero/Alzolay/De LaRosa/ Albertos.

Even before then Castro, Junior Lake etc.

There is still plenty of talent coming out of Latin America. Baseball means a way out of poverty for them so it means more. Vs the college degree fall back plan types in America.

 

[beckdawg]

IDK about that. On the Cubs: Contreras/Candelero/Alzolay/De LaRosa/ Albertos.

Even before then Castro, Junior Lake etc.

There is still plenty of talent coming out of Latin America. Baseball means a way out of poverty for them so it means more. Vs the college degree fall back plan types in America.

You realize how many players the cubs sign every year you never even hear of right? Of the players you listed the only one who was even marginally well regarded was Albertos. The rest were really cheap signings that out performed expectations. But there's literally dozens of players like this signed every year who you will never hear from. And when I say that I mean every player save for Albertos on that list was literally such a no name that they wouldn't even warrant listing in the top 30 IFAs in any given year they signed.

The point here being is literally none of those players were top prospects who got big bonuses. So sure teams will pull talent like that out of the international market but that's far more crap shoot than even drafting if that's what you're counting on. To illustrate my point, this was just the signings the cubs had from this past period where they had limited flexibility to spend

From cubs reporter

PITCHERS: 15
Willy Cabrera (age 17)
* Alejandro Carrillo (age 17)
Luis Devers (age 17)
Moises Diaz (age 16) - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017
Manuel Espinoza (age 17)
Kelvin Feliz (age 17)
Francisco Fermin (age 19) - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017
* Miguel Garcia (age 16)
* Johan Lopez (age 19) - SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018
Raidel Orta (age 21) - SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018
Luis Ramos (age 19) - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017
Jorge Remon (age 16)
* Luis Rodriguez (age 18)
Florencio Serrano (age 17)
* Saul Vazquez (age 17)

CATCHERS: 3
Alexander Guerra (age 20)
Miguel Fabrizio (age 17)
Brayan Mancilla (age 18) - SIGNED DECEMBER 2017

INFIELDERS: 6
# Reivaj Garcia (age 16)
Nestor Heredia (age 16)
Widimer Joaquin (age 17)
Fabian Pertuz (age 17)
Luis Verdugo (age 17)
* Orlando Zapata (age 18)

OUTFIELDERS: 9
# Josue Fernandez (age 17) - SIGNED FEBRUARY 2018
Kelvin Hidalgo (age 16)
* Kevin Miranda (age 18)
Kevin Moreno (age 17)
Carlos Morfa (age 16)
* Alexander Ovalles (age 17)
* Brailin Pena (age 16)
Jonathan Rodriguez (age 17)
* Marco Valenzuela (age 17)

 

[Omeletpants]

Every single player they signed is latin. The team will need translators for the few white players on the team

 

[beckdawg]

So, just to hammer home the point, here's what people you listed signed for

Candleario(2010) - $500k - this was more than I thought. MLB.com doesn't have top 30 rankings that far back but he may have been on the tail end of the list with that much.
De La Cruz(2012) - $85k
Albertos - $1.5 mil
Contreras - Can't even find a dollar amount listed he was that nondescript.
Alzolay - ditto
Castro - $45k

 

[Hammer]

Every single player they signed is latin. The team will need translators for the few white players on the team

You can say that for the whole USA southwest... tu no hablas espanol?