Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

Well, Hoyer was plumbed for a few quotes yesterday, and the Cubs beat reporter came up with "Hoyer would not provide any updates on negotiations with any players but said conversations with agents have developed into 'a little bit of a staredown.'"

So, like everyone is speculating, it sounds like the Cubs are offering no more than four years to any of the available starters, and the agents are sitting on absolute insistences of 6+ year deals. And if the other clubs interested in these starters were offering more than four years, all else being equal, the pitchers would be signed already.

We are two and a half weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. This goes on much longer, the three to four top FA SPs are gonna end up sitting out some or all of ST, and maybe the season, as well. I can just see Boras claiming collusion, when all this is, is the clubs deciding they are not going to pre-pay someone $20 million or more per year for years they are almost definitely going to be either much poorer performers, or out of the game entirely. Certainly not worth $20 million or more.

I *hate* the idea of the big reward going to the first club that gives in and perpetuates a boneheaded business plan. That's like the guy who decides to cash in his IRA at age 64 so he can go blow it all in one glorious weekend in Vegas. Yeah, it lets you sit at the table with the big rollers for a short while, but you end up on the street, or eating cat food for dinner, in a few years...

You're assuming that a team caves. I think players are going to cave before the teams do because the players have no leverage especially in the pitching market. As we sit today you have Arrieta, Cobb, Darvish, Cashner, Brett Anderson, Jaime Garcia, Lackey(maybe), Lance Lynn, Jeremy Hellickson and Jason Vargas who are all legit rotation members who've not signed. You have other fringe guys like Cahill, Jesse Chavez, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, R.A. Dickey, Matt Garza, A.J. Griffin, Edwin Jackson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Anibal Sanchez, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, and Albert Suarez who are also FA.

Point here being that even if one team signs a guy it's not like you don't have choices. That's the entire reason teams are sitting back with no pressure. On the other hand once teams start getting into ST this is going to be pressure filled on the players. If you don't take a deal there might not be one until someone gets hurt during the season and even then you're probably not making what you would if you take what's on the table now.

 

[chibears55]

You're assuming that a team caves. I think players are going to cave before the teams do because the players have no leverage especially in the pitching market. As we sit today you have Arrieta, Cobb, Darvish, Cashner, Brett Anderson, Jaime Garcia, Lackey(maybe), Lance Lynn, Jeremy Hellickson and Jason Vargas who are all legit rotation members who've not signed. You have other fringe guys like Cahill, Jesse Chavez, Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, R.A. Dickey, Matt Garza, A.J. Griffin, Edwin Jackson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Anibal Sanchez, Hector Santiago, Chris Tillman, and Albert Suarez who are also FA.

Point here being that even if one team signs a guy it's not like you don't have choices. That's the entire reason teams are sitting back with no pressure. On the other hand once teams start getting into ST this is going to be pressure filled on the players. If you don't take a deal there might not be one until someone gets hurt during the season and even then you're probably not making what you would if you take what's on the table now.

Thing is, for cubs looking to add Darvish, if he signs elsewhere then their choice falls to giving Arrieta the years or signing a lesser starter in Cobb....

Most everyone else after him are just average or less starters that would just fill out a rotation if a team dont feel they can fill it from within...
I think that why there are so many pitchers still out there, teams are looking to go with their own kids over signing older, average at best pitchers to a multi millon dollar contract..

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[beckdawg]

Thing is, for cubs looking to add Darvish, if he signs elsewhere then their choice falls to giving Arrieta the years or signing a lesser starter in Cobb....

Most everyone else after him are just average or less starters that would just fill out a rotation if a team dont feel they can fill it from within...
I think that why there are so many pitchers still out there, teams are looking to go with their own kids over signing older, average at best pitchers to a multi millon dollar contract..

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While that's true, the thing is that requires some other team to say they have to have Davrish enough to over pay for him. And as we've already established there's not really any team that makes sense to do that. It's almost certainly a case where Darvish wants to go to the cubs and the only reason it hasn't happened is he wants more than they are offering. If that offer was out there he'd be signed already. So at this point it's pretty obviously just a staring contest to see who blinks first.

In order for the situation to change you'd almost certainly have to have a team offer 6-7 years at a pretty high AAV that doesn't appear out there.

 

[chibears55]

While that's true, the thing is that requires some other team to say they have to have Davrish enough to over pay for him. And as we've already established there's not really any team that makes sense to do that. It's almost certainly a case where Darvish wants to go to the cubs and the only reason it hasn't happened is he wants more than they are offering. If that offer was out there he'd be signed already. So at this point it's pretty obviously just a staring contest to see who blinks first.

In order for the situation to change you'd almost certainly have to have a team offer 6-7 years at a pretty high AAV that doesn't appear out there.

I get and hope the cubs do have the best offer on table and the delay is that Darvish is hoping a team comes in with a better offer...

Im just hoping that a team like Brewers or another dont just go and do that and offer the 5th or 6th year and the cubs dont counter and then have to move on to Arrieta who may stand still for 6 or 7 yrs forcing the cubs hands to bring him back or move to Cobb and what he looking for...

So, yes on one hand the teams have the advantage if everyone stands pat but it just takes 1 team to say fudge it and give in to Darvish and then all hell breaks loose...

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[beckdawg]

I get and hope the cubs do have the best offer on table and the delay is that Darvish is hoping a team comes in with a better offer

My read on the situation is they don't. If they did he would have already signed with them. My read is he wants to play for the cubs and someone probably Minny has more years and potentially more money on the table but he's trying to leverage that to get the cubs to increase their offer. But I mean if I'm seeing this I'm sure the cubs know this too. I think my read is likely accurate too given the cubs signed his personal catcher. That felt like an in essence "hey we're not going any more years but we can offer you other stuff to make the offer more enticing."

Overall though I just don't think there's much to worry about. If he were going to take Minny or whomever has a better offer he would have by now. Just seems like posturing.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

My read on the situation is they don't. If they did he would have already signed with them. My read is he wants to play for the cubs and someone probably Minny has more years and potentially more money on the table but he's trying to leverage that to get the cubs to increase their offer. But I mean if I'm seeing this I'm sure the cubs know this too. I think my read is likely accurate too given the cubs signed his personal catcher. That felt like an in essence "hey we're not going any more years but we can offer you other stuff to make the offer more enticing."

Overall though I just don't think there's much to worry about. If he were going to take Minny or whomever has a better offer he would have by now. Just seems like posturing.

Now it's being reported that it's down to Chicago and Minnesota and if the Twins don't raise their offer "substantially" over the Cubs offer in the next 48-72 hours he'll sign in Chicago. Sounds like one last effort to get what he wants financially but it sure sounds like he wants to play in Chicago.

 

[CSF77]

I don’t know about all that. Darvish just said he has been stalling to see if the Dodgers can move enough cash for him to sign. He wants to stay in LA.


In his latest Dodgers mailbag, Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times writes that Yu Darvish has “made it clear” that he’d like to return to the Dodgers, which is part of the reason that his market hasn’t moved forward. Darvish, according to McCullough, has been waiting to see if the Dodgers will be able to shed any money; McCullough notes that they’ve explored dealing from positions of depth by gauging interest in well-compensated veterans such as Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe and Hyun-Jin Ryu, though clearly nothing much has come of those endeavors to date. The fact that he’s waited this long suggests some degree of mutual interest, though the Cubs, Twins and Brewers have been most prominently linked to Darvish in recent weeks.

 

[Omeletpants]

Do we really want a guy that doesnt want to be here?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I don’t know about all that. Darvish just said he has been stalling to see if the Dodgers can move enough cash for him to sign. He wants to stay in LA.


In his latest Dodgers mailbag, Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times writes that Yu Darvish has “made it clear” that he’d like to return to the Dodgers, which is part of the reason that his market hasn’t moved forward. Darvish, according to McCullough, has been waiting to see if the Dodgers will be able to shed any money; McCullough notes that they’ve explored dealing from positions of depth by gauging interest in well-compensated veterans such as Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe and Hyun-Jin Ryu, though clearly nothing much has come of those endeavors to date. The fact that he’s waited this long suggests some degree of mutual interest, though the Cubs, Twins and Brewers have been most prominently linked to Darvish in recent weeks.

I just saw that too. That’s in direct contradiction to Heyman’s report this morning where my earlier post came from which tells me nobody knows shit.

 

[beckdawg]

I don’t know about all that. Darvish just said he has been stalling to see if the Dodgers can move enough cash for him to sign. He wants to stay in LA.

Darvish didn't say shit. A reporter said shit. However, the LA front office has already said it's unlikely they would be in play because of money issue. Also, this to me feels like another "hey notice me" play for the only teams who appear to seriously be in it(minny cubs).

 

[chibears55]

I just saw that too. That’s in direct contradiction to Heyman’s report this morning where my earlier post came from which tells me nobody knows shit.

I wouldnt take Heyman words for anything... he said last week his "sources" told him Darvish would decide by last Friday.....

I dont trust any writers, reporters etc..
They all guess and say they have these sources and most of time their wrong..
It all a guessing game , hoping to be first to report it...

Still trying to figure out why they make a big deal of being first...
do they win a cookie ?

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[CubsFaninMN]

That beat reporter in LA sounds like he is trying to tell the Dodgers how to make room to get Darvish and pushing at it by inventing the "he really wants to come back here" meme, so he can try and make it happen.

I understand that people following a team can sometimes get too invested, and start trying to spin things in such a way as to make the players and teams take the actions *they* think are best. Fortunately, reporters usually have little influence over how players and clubs make these kinds of decisions.

TBH, this sounds a lot like that Texas-based trainer, who was trying to invent the "he really wants to come back and play for the Rangers, all we have to do is figure out how to make the Rangers give an acceptable offer" meme.

In each case, I doubt what they are saying has any relationship to what's actually happening. The one comment I believe is reflecting the truth was Hoyer's, who said it is devolving in "a bit of a staring contest" between the clubs and the agents...

 

[beckdawg]

That beat reporter in LA sounds like he is trying to tell the Dodgers how to make room to get Darvish and pushing at it by inventing the "he really wants to come back here" meme, so he can try and make it happen.

I understand that people following a team can sometimes get too invested, and start trying to spin things in such a way as to make the players and teams take the actions *they* think are best. Fortunately, reporters usually have little influence over how players and clubs make these kinds of decisions.

TBH, this sounds a lot like that Texas-based trainer, who was trying to invent the "he really wants to come back and play for the Rangers, all we have to do is figure out how to make the Rangers give an acceptable offer" meme.

In each case, I doubt what they are saying has any relationship to what's actually happening. The one comment I believe is reflecting the truth was Hoyer's, who said it is devolving in "a bit of a staring contest" between the clubs and the agents...

Tend to agree with you. The fact of the matter is if teams want a player they don't do the shit that teams like texas, LA and NY have done. You make your offer. Minny from the outset has been clear he was their guy. And while I was under the assumption they might not have the finances to do it they never made that claim. So they clearly strike me as a legit team. The 3 teams I mentioned don't seem serious because you don't start making offseason decisions in january. You make them in October/Early Nov and plan your offseason accordingly. In the case of NYY/LAD they made their plans to get under the luxury tax. Texas made their plan to sign Minor.

As I said earlier, I think Heyman's sources are more or less accurate. It strikes me as a case of him wanting the the cubs but not at their current offer and Minny's offer isn't enough to change that. The fact we're now hearing more teams come into it just strikes me as another play to break the stalemate but the cubs have no pressure on them. They could literally go into the season with what they have. It isn't desirable to do that but they could. They could also still land cobb or arrieta. Ultimately if you're calling someone's bluff you better have the hand and i don't think Darvish does.

 

[anotheridiot]

well, it sure seems to me that some 15 other clubs can afford Darvish, could slide in and get him, but they might be far too concerned with that pitch tipping from the playoffs last year. Remember when Greg Maddux told his new team the Padres how Rich Hill was tipping pitches? It screwed him up for 5 years.

I tend to agree with most of the posts here, especially the "why should we want him if he does not really want to be here". I would prefer the cubs pulled the offer and give Jake that other year. The man is a fitness fanatic, should be no concern with his age and losing velocity might be what he needs to get his control back to where it was.

As far as the beat writer, well, I still think he is one step above our forum experts since he gets paid for a living, and I dont see much difference in the fact that some think they are the GM's and should be listened to.

Regardless, any of these teams fighting to get under this invisible tax line will pop right over it in June to get their missing piece, so it makes little sense to fight so hard to get under now.

 

[beckdawg]

Regardless, any of these teams fighting to get under this invisible tax line will pop right over it in June to get their missing piece, so it makes little sense to fight so hard to get under now.

Disagree. The rules aren't the same anymore. The rules for signing a FA now when you're over luxury tax are super putative. If teams didn't care the yankees would have signed Darvish or LA would have. Teams aren't going over it willy nilly. More than likely for either of those 2 teams to go over they would have to facilitate additional moves.

 

[beckdawg]

Jon Heyman previously said Brian Duensing took less money to come back to the Cubs, and it turns out, relatively speaking, it was a *ton* less: the A’s reportedly offered Duensing $10 million over two years,

^pretty interesting.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That beat reporter in LA sounds like he is trying to tell the Dodgers how to make room to get Darvish and pushing at it by inventing the "he really wants to come back here" meme, so he can try and make it happen.

I understand that people following a team can sometimes get too invested, and start trying to spin things in such a way as to make the players and teams take the actions *they* think are best. Fortunately, reporters usually have little influence over how players and clubs make these kinds of decisions.

TBH, this sounds a lot like that Texas-based trainer, who was trying to invent the "he really wants to come back and play for the Rangers, all we have to do is figure out how to make the Rangers give an acceptable offer" meme.

In each case, I doubt what they are saying has any relationship to what's actually happening. The one comment I believe is reflecting the truth was Hoyer's, who said it is devolving in "a bit of a staring contest" between the clubs and the agents...

So if information is to be believed, and I don't know that it is, Minnesota has a deal on the table for 5 years at not enough money but the Cubs offer is only 4 years. I could see a compromise where the Cubs give the 5th year but with a vesting option but offer Darvish an opt out after year 2 or 3 in return. Or they could say call our bluff and see if he signs in Minnesota. I have no idea at this point and doubt anyone else does either.

 

[beckdawg]

So if information is to be believed, and I don't know that it is, Minnesota has a deal on the table for 5 years at not enough money but the Cubs offer is only 4 years. I could see a compromise where the Cubs give the 5th year but with a vesting option but offer Darvish an opt out after year 2 or 3 in return. Or they could say call our bluff and see if he signs in Minnesota. I have no idea at this point and doubt anyone else does either.

I don't think the cubs front office is really going to move off their position right now. We're 24 days until the first spring training games start. I've said it a lot already but if Darvish is going to call the cubs bluff he'd better be holding a hand and I don't think he's got one. You don't hold out this long with whatever Minny's offer may be if it's acceptable to you assuming we're all right about the lay of things. If he were going to take that offer you don't keep waiting as long as he has. You wait maybe a week and then accept it if you can't do better. And assuming that's the case one of two things happens. He either finds some way to get Minny to up their offer which again why would they or he eventually caves and takes the cubs offer. It seems to me the whole reason nothing has happened is he's hoping the landscape changes with some sort of trade with NYY or LAD but it's damn near feb. That ship seems to have sailed.

I suppose you could make the argument that if you do sign him in this way he's not going to come in happy so maybe you find some sort of olive branch to make good with him but I sorta feel like that's what Gimenez was. I don't think you change your financial picture at this point to placate him. If the cubs are going 4 years on him there's probably a good reason for that.

 

[Omeletpants]

I don't think the cubs front office is really going to move off their position right now. We're 24 days until the first spring training games start. I've said it a lot already but if Darvish is going to call the cubs bluff he'd better be holding a hand and I don't think he's got one. You don't hold out this long with whatever Minny's offer may be if it's acceptable to you assuming we're all right about the lay of things. If he were going to take that offer you don't keep waiting as long as he has. You wait maybe a week and then accept it if you can't do better. And assuming that's the case one of two things happens. He either finds some way to get Minny to up their offer which again why would they or he eventually caves and takes the cubs offer. It seems to me the whole reason nothing has happened is he's hoping the landscape changes with some sort of trade with NYY or LAD but it's damn near feb. That ship seems to have sailed.

I suppose you could make the argument that if you do sign him in this way he's not going to come in happy so maybe you find some sort of olive branch to make good with him but I sorta feel like that's what Gimenez was. I don't think you change your financial picture at this point to placate him. If the cubs are going 4 years on him there's probably a good reason for that.

Agreed. If Minn was such a great opportunity he would have taken it by now. He has no connection to the team or city and they really arent a threat to contend. If Boras pushes him to Minn he will be asking for a trade in the future

 

[CubsFaninMN]

This all also makes you wonder whether or not Arrieta will either take a 4-year (at most) deal or hold out. And whether Boras will urge him to hold out.

As of right now, the only club even being discussed as interested in Arrieta is Milwaukee, and that only if they can get a "Spring Training is starting!" panicked-player discount, in either annual cost or years of contract. And if Arrieta (or Darvish, for that matter) were going to sign a deal that is less than the 5- to 6-year deals their agents are looking for, why haven't they signed one yet?

What I have read is that Boras will not even discuss the possibility of allowing Arrieta to sign any deal that is less than six guaranteed years, and that *no* club has shown any interest in signing him on that basis. I'm guessing Milwaukee would be willing to go four years, and the Twins might even pop for five years but for less per year than Boras will accept. Seeing as the Cub's lack of interest in bringing Jake back has always been quoted as the six-year thing, which Theo and Jed seem to have told Jake "if that comes down to four years, we're happy to talk, otherwise, good luck with whoever is willing to give you that deal" kind of thing, they may put a four-year offer on the table for him, if Darvish doesn't pan out or insists on holding out for the deal he wants.

Any way this goes, I don't see it working out for anyone very well. The players may well get a lot less than they have been asking for, and thus will be disgruntled from the get-go, and the teams may start out with a touch of hostility towards the guys who have refused to consider what the clubs considered reasonable offers. Both the players and the clubs may feel diminished by the lack of spring training time that may occur, and the media will be ready to pounce on the signing shenanigans as harping points, should any of these high-priced players have anything except Hall of Fame seasons.

It's not in anyone's best interests, nor in the best interests of baseball as a whole. Which is why I have suggested the concept that, to be eligible for playing during all, or part, of the upcoming season, a free agent must be signed with a team no later than 2/1. Or maybe something less impactive, but in keeping with how the post-NWTD deals used to be done -- you can acquire a FA at any time, but if it's after 2/1 that player is ineligible to play in the post-season.

Players (and more specifically their agents) should not be given the power to freeze the FA market like Darvish has done, and at a certain point, when (perhaps an arbitration-eligible set of) offers have been on the table, the player has to either decide to sit out all, or a specific portion of, the upcoming season, or accepts one of the offers. Call it the Shit or Get Off the Pot rule...