DanTown
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Mar 31, 2009
- Posts:
- 2,446
- Liked Posts:
- 509
Also the entire FO is out of the country in the Dominican.
Also the entire FO is out of the country in the Dominican.
DanTown
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Mar 31, 2009
- Posts:
- 2,446
- Liked Posts:
- 509
After the Cole deal, they have to think that the best they'd get with Darvish is a WC spot and you're simply not going to spend that kind of money for a one game crapshoot just to make the playoffs.
CubsFaninMN
Active member
- Joined:
- Jan 8, 2018
- Posts:
- 581
- Liked Posts:
- 118
Yeah, but nothing about this off season is normal. Wouldn't surprise me to hear it released today that the league office has imposed a pitch clock, without thought to the timing of the HoF announcements.
anotheridiot
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Jul 15, 2016
- Posts:
- 5,935
- Liked Posts:
- 791
an injury to one or the other teams and they are back running for a wild card, if not the division
TC in Mississippi
CCS Staff
- Joined:
- Oct 22, 2014
- Posts:
- 5,305
- Liked Posts:
- 1,816
I don't agree. Houston could lose two players before they're out of a division hunt and both Seattle and Anaheim look significantly better to me and could sustain short term injuries. Plus the WC race in the AL is crowded. I'd say the loser of the AL East between Boston/NYY, Seattle, Anaheim, Minnesota and Toronto are all vying for the five spots and I don't think Texas is particularly close to any of them. Remember that even with their 95 win season in 2016 their Pythagorean record was only 82 wins and they've gotten worse. The Rangers are not a good club and have a lot of bad money in that $140 mil payroll.
CSF77
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 18,659
- Liked Posts:
- 2,843
- Location:
- San Diego
Sea/LAA are fringe also. They are notcomplete either. NYY/Bos you figure 1 is a lock. Minn is fringe also. Even adding Cobb makes then the #2 WC. Balt has holes as does Tor but either team has the same chance as the others.
Basically there are 6 teams fighting for 1 spot. And Yu makes Tex one of those vs fighting for the top WC. Astros are the best team in baseball right now. LAD are #2 atm but NYY maybe better right now. #4 I would give to Cle. #5 Bos #6 Nats. (They choke too much and it really is on the new manager. ) #7 Cubs #8-13 are those teams fighting for a spot. Add in a few NL teams fighting for the NL WC at that point.
So honestly right now the Cubs are the weakest Div leader in a weak division. Much of their wins will be feeding off of the Reds and the Pirates. Both of those team could break 100 losses.
So aiming for Yu makes perfect sense. He takes a WC quality team and pushes them up into the top 3 teams in baseball. I would say maybe #4 with NYY O and LAD’s having Shaw. But 1-5 SP they are up with Hou. With out a doubt and if we have some bounce back O they could end up 100 wins again very easily and make it another fun season.
So the impact is worth the investment.
TC in Mississippi
CCS Staff
- Joined:
- Oct 22, 2014
- Posts:
- 5,305
- Liked Posts:
- 1,816
The contenders are definitely up for debate, and I don't see the case for Texas at all, but hey they are all just opinions. As far as the NL I see the Dodgers taking a step back this year before becoming a juggernaut for 4-5 years in 2019 with walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo coming not to mention having some money to spend after dipping under the tax for 2018. I don't like their rotation after Kershaw, and I think none of Turner, Puig, Taylor or Hernandez will match or improve their 2017 numbers and Corey Seager could have chronic back problems. I think the Cubs, IF they sign Darvish, are the #2 team in the NL after Washington. I'm not sure I'm ready to compare them to the AL, I think those are comparison's for later on.
Completely off the contention track I really disagree with you on the Reds. I think they could go .500 with some things going right, probably more likely to win 75 though. they won 68 games in 2017 and even with the loss of Cozart I think they'll be better, especially once Nick Senzel comes up to play 3B with Suarez moving to 2B. I like their bullpen and their lineup and I like DeScalafini even if they'd have to catch lightning in a bottle for a couple of the other starters. Still makes them fourth in the Central but they're better than you think.
CSF77
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 18,659
- Liked Posts:
- 2,843
- Location:
- San Diego
On paper the Nats are the best in the NL. But they have not gotten past the first round.
CubsFaninMN
Active member
- Joined:
- Jan 8, 2018
- Posts:
- 581
- Liked Posts:
- 118
I'm operating off my phone (have been for the past two weeks) and have a hard time posting links, but Jon Paul Morosi has reported that Darvish will sign with someone by Friday. No inside info on which club, but that it will definitely happen by the end of the week. The story is running on the mlb.com website.
So, the situation ought to be a lot clearer in 48 hours... fingers and toes crossed...
Edit: back home from 2-week family visit, so I could do things like get my avatar in and also get the link for the story I was mentioning:
https://www.mlb.com/news/yu-darvish-could-sign-by-end-of-week/c-265236346
So, the situation ought to be a lot clearer in 48 hours... fingers and toes crossed...
Edit: back home from 2-week family visit, so I could do things like get my avatar in and also get the link for the story I was mentioning:
https://www.mlb.com/news/yu-darvish-could-sign-by-end-of-week/c-265236346
CSF77
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 18,659
- Liked Posts:
- 2,843
- Location:
- San Diego
Really nothing new here. He has to sign pretty soon with pitchers and catchers reporting very soon.
CubsFaninMN
Active member
- Joined:
- Jan 8, 2018
- Posts:
- 581
- Liked Posts:
- 118
Probably. But take away Harper, Scherzer and Strasberg, and replace them with league-average players, and I think they have a poorer team than if you do the same with the best two starters and best position player on any of the other top five or six teams.
That's a gut feeling, though, I haven't done the math on it. It would make an interesting little project for someone, though, and might even be an enlightening analytics tool. And it could explain why the Nats have problems in short series -- maybe it's easier to beat a team when you only have to work hard to overcome their top three players, and they have to work hard to overcome your top six...
CSF77
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 18,659
- Liked Posts:
- 2,843
- Location:
- San Diego
That is what happens when you have to pay Boras’ clients. If the extend Harper then it will just get worse.
Cubs will start to deal with these issues soon enough with Bryant and Russell.
As far as talent. Stras is over rated Harper also. They have had flashes but lack consistent years. Max is the best pitcher in baseball. That includes Kershaw. Cubs do not have a pitcher of that quality so they are better off being deeper.
O wise Cubs have one of the deepest line ups and the deepest bench. If Schwarber has a break out season then it could become plain scary. As it is they have 3 30 HR bats in the line up. Then 4 more that are locks for 20+.
Pen is deep also.
Pitching has been the issue in general and Theo has gone with a depth approach vs a max talent approach.
So we will see how these teams do inseason. One bad injury to the Nats could ruin a season. Cubs just means opertunity for another player to shine.
I like how Theo runs the show personally
TC in Mississippi
CCS Staff
- Joined:
- Oct 22, 2014
- Posts:
- 5,305
- Liked Posts:
- 1,816
My only issue with Theo has been the top end pitching. We've had some with Arrieta in 2015 and Lester in 2016, that has been dominant but you can't count on those type of guys year after year like you can with Scherzer and frankly I think Strasburg has turned a corner. I have come around to the overall approach, I think it gives you a better shot over the course of a long season, but if one or two of your guys doesn't step and dominate, then it means you have to hit well in the playoffs which is something I don't like to count on because great pitching almost always beats great hitting. You're going to have a game or two in a playoff series where some runs are scored but I like my team to be prepared to 3-2 and 2-1 games. Now you can point to the fact that the Nationals had a better pitching staff than the Cubs last year and the Cubs won the series but had that been a 7 game series do you think the outcome would have been the same? I'm not sure I do. There are any easy answers but all things being equal I would like to have an ace. Considering there are only a handful of those in the game at any one time, that's a tall order. Right now I'd say Scherzer, Kershaw, Strasburg, Kluber, Sale are the only ones although Verlander pitched like one in the playoffs. I think Syndergaard can be one if he stays healthy as could Carlos Carrasco and maybe one or two others. Again no easy answers.
CSF77
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 18,659
- Liked Posts:
- 2,843
- Location:
- San Diego
The Astros have 3 tier 2 pitchers at the top right now. I would concider their rotation top 2 right now. You could say all 3 are not top 5 in the league.
Nats have a drop off. They have a legit 1 and a legit 2. Rest are unpredictable year to year.
Cubs right now have honestly 2 #2 starters and a 4 and a 5. They are border line top 15 starters. Yu is in their category also.
That is why I say they are up with the Stroes. Neither have that dominate ace like Shaw or Max but it a 7 game not a 1 game series. Depth pays off more.
Nats have a drop off. They have a legit 1 and a legit 2. Rest are unpredictable year to year.
Cubs right now have honestly 2 #2 starters and a 4 and a 5. They are border line top 15 starters. Yu is in their category also.
That is why I say they are up with the Stroes. Neither have that dominate ace like Shaw or Max but it a 7 game not a 1 game series. Depth pays off more.
TC in Mississippi
CCS Staff
- Joined:
- Oct 22, 2014
- Posts:
- 5,305
- Liked Posts:
- 1,816
I think when it comes to the playoffs Verlander is unquestionably an ace. He's older and can't sustain in the regular season but come October he's legit. I think I rate Strasburg higher than you. I think he's a legit ace as well. If I were looking at the Nats rotation I would say they have two 1s, two 3's and 5. With Darvish the Cubs will have a 1/2 type in Darvish, a true 2 in Q, and hopefully 2 3's in Lester and Hendrick's although I'm not positive Lester isn't a 4 now. Chatwood is clearly a #5. In an NLCS against Washington they would be favored in probably every game, doesn't mean we couldn't win the series but they would have the perceived advantage.
beckdawg
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Oct 31, 2012
- Posts:
- 11,750
- Liked Posts:
- 3,741
Hard to do this when you don't develop your own. Syndergaard was sorta developed(part of the RA Dickey trade as a lower level prospect). Carrasco was a similar trade I think as part of the Cliff Lee package to philly. Scherzer was a huge contract. Strasburg was the #1 pick. Sale was a first round pick as was Kershaw. Cleveland got really lucky with kluber via trade.
Overall people knock the cubs a lot for not developing pitching but I think it's a bit overstated. You have to consider where the organization was when they took over pitching wise(there was nothing left in the minors worth talking about) and where they've devoted their resources. If we look at their system today there's no standout "guarantee" but they depth of pitching is so much better. AAA is a bit thin but you have guys like Butler, Mills, Tseng and Ryan Willams who are potential 4/5 types. AA is going to be REALLY good with probably Alzolay, Hatch, De La Cruz, Rucker...etc. The A+ staff from last year was fantastic. So much so that they may end up having several guys have to stay on A+ because they may not have enough room in the AA rotation. At A you're going to have Lange, Little, Albertos and guys like Keegan Thompson and Cory Abbott. And in rookie/a- you got Jeremiah Estrada.
So overall I think people underrate the job they've done. From top to bottom those staffs are all better than average and in some cases pretty good. I'd rather have that then stick all your cards on one or two guys. Certainly they need to add a few arms that can be those high end pitchers. But they've really got the depth back in shape. They can now afford to throw more picks at riskier arms with upside because they have that depth.
beckdawg
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Oct 31, 2012
- Posts:
- 11,750
- Liked Posts:
- 3,741
Also re: pitching, I'm curious if they may go heavier on pitching in the IFA class coming up. I have no idea who the top prospects for IFA even are right now(most places don't have that up yet) but historically pitching has been cheaper than hitting. You almost never get pitchers who make big buckets in IFA because of the risk. But in a system where you're limited on the max money you can spend, adding talent that way can be pretty interesting. For example, the best pitcher in this year's class was Eric Pardinho who got $1.4 mil. The best prospect overall got nearly 3x that at $3,825,000. The only other pitcher in mlb.com's top 30 was Damian Mendoza who got $1 mil.
The other interesting thing about signing pitching this way is you have more control over their development. I have 0 proof to back this up but it feels like more US pitchers are the ones having TJS. You could surmise that part of that is US kids play more and throw more innings at a younger age.
The other interesting thing about signing pitching this way is you have more control over their development. I have 0 proof to back this up but it feels like more US pitchers are the ones having TJS. You could surmise that part of that is US kids play more and throw more innings at a younger age.
CubsFaninMN
Active member
- Joined:
- Jan 8, 2018
- Posts:
- 581
- Liked Posts:
- 118
Well, Hoyer was plumbed for a few quotes yesterday, and the Cubs beat reporter came up with "Hoyer would not provide any updates on negotiations with any players but said conversations with agents have developed into 'a little bit of a staredown.'"
So, like everyone is speculating, it sounds like the Cubs are offering no more than four years to any of the available starters, and the agents are sitting on absolute insistences of 6+ year deals. And if the other clubs interested in these starters were offering more than four years, all else being equal, the pitchers would be signed already.
We are two and a half weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. This goes on much longer, the three to four top FA SPs are gonna end up sitting out some or all of ST, and maybe the season, as well. I can just see Boras claiming collusion, when all this is, is the clubs deciding they are not going to pre-pay someone $20 million or more per year for years they are almost definitely going to be either much poorer performers, or out of the game entirely. Certainly not worth $20 million or more.
I *hate* the idea of the big reward going to the first club that gives in and perpetuates a boneheaded business plan. That's like the guy who decides to cash in his IRA at age 64 so he can go blow it all in one glorious weekend in Vegas. Yeah, it lets you sit at the table with the big rollers for a short while, but you end up on the street, or eating cat food for dinner, in a few years...
So, like everyone is speculating, it sounds like the Cubs are offering no more than four years to any of the available starters, and the agents are sitting on absolute insistences of 6+ year deals. And if the other clubs interested in these starters were offering more than four years, all else being equal, the pitchers would be signed already.
We are two and a half weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training. This goes on much longer, the three to four top FA SPs are gonna end up sitting out some or all of ST, and maybe the season, as well. I can just see Boras claiming collusion, when all this is, is the clubs deciding they are not going to pre-pay someone $20 million or more per year for years they are almost definitely going to be either much poorer performers, or out of the game entirely. Certainly not worth $20 million or more.
I *hate* the idea of the big reward going to the first club that gives in and perpetuates a boneheaded business plan. That's like the guy who decides to cash in his IRA at age 64 so he can go blow it all in one glorious weekend in Vegas. Yeah, it lets you sit at the table with the big rollers for a short while, but you end up on the street, or eating cat food for dinner, in a few years...
- Joined:
- Apr 16, 2013
- Posts:
- 21,846
- Liked Posts:
- 9,041
We signed Darvish personal catcher. This smells like Ross and Lester. I know it doesnt mean a lock, but we are favorites to land him.
chibears55
Well-known member
- Joined:
- Apr 18, 2013
- Posts:
- 13,554
- Liked Posts:
- 1,915