Cubs offseason rumors/transactions

[beckdawg]

They did pick up Pit’s pitching fixer. I believe all he needs is raw talent to mold. Tseng IMO is already ML ready and really doesnt need to be in AAA. His problem is his talent cap. It is not as high. Butler is interesting in that aspect. I see him as a underperforming player that has not figured it out. Last year he kinda got to a place where he was able to win some games and get some experience at the major league level. Which is something to build off of.

At worst case he is a bridge to a more reliable starter in Tseng. But I wouldn’t lock the door on the 5 honestly by signing a guy for it. You have Tseng at AAA and Alzolay at AA. De La Rosa at A+ with Lange and Little at A+ and Albertos at A. There is a progression of talent upwelling where you want a #5 to be a proving ground. Which is the reason Hendricks is a ML starter.

The problem with butler is his underlying numbers are dangerously bad. Last year he had a 4.94 k/9 and a 4.61 bb/9 meaning he almost walked more people than he struck out. He's not had a k/9 over 7 since 2013. Now I'm not saying he's beyond hope but you're just not going to start many mlb games like that.

As for lugo vs tseng I don't really see it as a competition. You have to have depth. Mills is decent. Tseng is decent. I wouldn't rush Alzolay. He still needs a better change up. Give him most of next year at AAA to refine that rather than calling him up quickly and potentially messing him up long term. The thing with Lugo is he's unlikely to ever lose value. If you get him fairly cheap you can use him for a year or two as a bridge then trade him again when he starts to hit his arb years and you have someone better. He's likely always going to be a reliable guy as a 4/5.

And that's sort of the worst case outside him getting hurt. We've seen what pitchers with above average k rates and great command can do. That's Hendricks in a nutshell. Now I think Hendricks is the exception not the rule but if you look at guys like Lance Lynn(8.46/3.40), Jaime Garcia(7.28/2.78), Ervin Santana(7.19/2.79), Marco Estrada(8.14/2.80) and Jason Hammel(7.14/2.82) they have all been very useful pitchers. At 7.08/2.50 k/bb rate he's well within reason of being able to reach their level. And the other thing is if you're going to trade for someone like Archer in the future, the team dealing a player like that is going to want something back that some what replaces the part they lose. Obviously even if he turns into Lynn/Garcia he's not going to be the big piece but he might be a useful 2nd or 3rd piece.

I just look at it as an opportunity to buy in low on someone a team may not value that highly given they have better parts ahead of him and it could net you useful production in the short term with a potential to be a marginally interesting trade piece later. I wouldn't give up a ton to get him but I'd argue that something like Clifton plus maybe Paulino would be enough and I wouldn't really hate it.

 

[CSF77]

On Butler: only if he is fixable. If he is beyond repair then you look at Mills then Tseng etc. even giving Lackey a 1 year pass is a option.

Now to the more important issue: Sign a F/A or trade to replace Jake. Danny Salazar for either Happ or Schwarber. There are Ohio ties to both players that will go over with Cle. Add a arm like Clifton and honestly is doable.

 

[TL1961]

On Butler: only if he is fixable. If he is beyond repair then you look at Mills then Tseng etc. even giving Lackey a 1 year pass is a option.

Now to the more important issue: Sign a F/A or trade to replace Jake. Danny Salazar for either Happ or Schwarber. There are Ohio ties to both players that will go over with Cle. Add a arm like Clifton and honestly is doable.

Fans on message boards bring up the players' hometowns, home states, etc.

GM's don't - and shouldn't - ever care about that.

I am not more likely to go watch the Cubs if they draft a Chicago player, and I am not less likely to watch them if they don't. It is completely meaningless.

 

[beckdawg]

Fans on message boards bring up the players' hometowns, home states, etc.

GM's don't - and shouldn't - ever care about that.

I am not more likely to go watch the Cubs if they draft a Chicago player, and I am not less likely to watch them if they don't. It is completely meaningless.

I wouldn't say it's *completely* meaningless. See: stanton. But in general I do agree.

 

[CSF77]

Fans on message boards bring up the players' hometowns, home states, etc.

GM's don't - and shouldn't - ever care about that.

I am not more likely to go watch the Cubs if they draft a Chicago player, and I am not less likely to watch them if they don't. It is completely meaningless.

Depends on the market. Chi not really a issue. Ohio needs PR

 

[TL1961]

I wouldn't say it's *completely* meaningless. See: stanton. But in general I do agree.

Not meaningless to the player. Meaningless to a team acquiring players. I want Theo to acquire players who help the team win (as he has done, brilliantly). I don't want him to use a player's hometown as a reason to acquire him.

 

[CSF77]

Fans on message boards bring up the players' hometowns, home states, etc.

GM's don't - and shouldn't - ever care about that.

I am not more likely to go watch the Cubs if they draft a Chicago player, and I am not less likely to watch them if they don't. It is completely meaningless.

Not meaningless to the player. Meaningless to a team acquiring players. I want Theo to acquire players who help the team win (as he has done, brilliantly). I don't want him to use a player's hometown as a reason to acquire him.

Not all decisions are made for winning. Small markets have to think of box office draw and pay roll more than fielding a contender.

Depends on the market. Here in S.D. Home town don’t mean much as most come from abroad. But a small market in the central zones of the US? Most of those areas gravitate towards college sports and ex-players from their universities would have appeal. A city like Chicago would never factor a hometown player or manager. But a city like Cleveland? More so. Cincy yes. KC more likely. These smaller markets need an advantage.

 

[TL1961]

Not all decisions are made for winning. Small markets have to think of box office draw and pay roll more than fielding a contender.

Depends on the market. Here in S.D. Home town don’t mean much as most come from abroad. But a small market in the central zones of the US? Most of those areas gravitate towards college sports and ex-players from their universities would have appeal. A city like Chicago would never factor a hometown player or manager. But a city like Cleveland? More so. Cincy yes. KC more likely. These smaller markets need an advantage.

That is my whole point.
You're saying fans will buy more tickets to see a "hometown kid"?

Sure his family will buy some. But what impact on the box office do you honestly project by getting a hometown kid?

 

[CSF77]

that is my whole point.
You're saying fans will buy more tickets to see a "hometown kid"?

Sure his family will buy some. But what impact on the box office do you honestly project by getting a hometown kid?

p.r.

 

[CSF77]

Regardless they are not doing anything until Ohtani is resolved. My opinion stands that they have to go external to replace Jake. To replace John it is better to stay internal.

 

[chibears55]

Remember when i said we probably won't see much happening transactions wise til Ohtani and Stanton deals are done and you all
???? at me....

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[beckdawg]

Remember when i said we probably won't see much happening transactions wise til Ohtani and Stanton deals are done and you all
�������� at me....

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I don't remember anyone disagreeing with that. I do remember suggesting that Ohtani wasn't holding up the market because he'd have to sign before xmas. But it's entirely different suggesting that's holding up everything. Nothing is happening because the winter meetings start in 6 days. There's maybe 3 teams in on Stanton(STL SF and maybe LA). That's not holding up the other 26 teams. We now know there's 7 teams in on Ohtani. That's not holding up the other 23.

Now sure if you want to argue that a team like SF is held up by Stanton/Ohtani that's fine. But it's not like every team is effected here. Jason Heyward signed with the cubs on December 15, 2015 and two days prior to that at the winter meetings is when they traded Castro to afford Zobrist. David Price in 2015 signed December 4, 2015. In other words today. Albert Pujols signed December 8, 2011. Cueto signed December 16, 2015. Jayson Werth when he got his big deal signed December 5, 2010. James Shields signed February 11, 2015. Chapman signed December 15, 2016. Jacoby Ellsbury signed December 7, 2013. Masahiro Tanaka signed January 22, 2014. Hanley Ramirez signed November 25, 2014. Justin Upton signed January 20, 2016. Yoenis Cespedes signed November 30, 2016. Zack Greinke signed December 8, 2015. Robinson Cano signed December 12, 2013. C.C. Sabathia signed December 20, 2008.

That's a list that covers all the top 26 paid players in baseball as of oct 31st. And sure there's a few guys in Nov(Hanley and Cespedes) but by in large these signings tend to happen around the winter meetings. If you want to argue occasionally you'll see trades ahead of the meetings or lesser names sign ok but I don't think that's typically the norm. The norm is the big name FA's always hold up everyone below them and as I've literally just shown those almost always happen from like Dec 8th-the 20th.

 

[CSF77]

Ohtani is most likely affecting Darvish right now the most. Ideally both goto the same team. If that is the game plan Theo presents to get his services and Darvish has been involved then that would be a market staller in TOR.

It would stall Cobb as his preferred spot is Chi. Chi is after Ohtani hard right now and Cobb is on hold

It affects certain players for sure

 

[beckdawg]

Ohtani is most likely affecting Darvish right now the most. Ideally both goto the same team. If that is the game plan Theo presents to get his services and Darvish has been involved then that would be a market staller in TOR.

It would stall Cobb as his preferred spot is Chi. Chi is after Ohtani hard right now and Cobb is on hold

It affects certain players for sure

See I don't think it does because my point is those players wouldn't have signed by now anyways. If it's after the winter meetings and Darvish still hasn't signed then sure they held up the market but as I just pointed out there's a whole slew of guys who sign between the 5th and the 20th in years that Stanton/Ohtani did not exist on the open market.

 

[beckdawg]

And just so we're clear here, what is different(sorta) about this year is the lack of trades prior to the winter meetings. Jed and Theo famously had thanksgiving dinner with Schilling. The M's GM famously mades a trade every 5 minutes after the season. Now that doesn't always happen but it can. It's usually prior to the deadline for rule 5 draft guys for obvious reason. Teams are more willing to move guys they know they might lose. The problem this year is other than Stanton who's even out there? Odorizzi? Maybe Colome?

What makes this winter feel so dead is the hype from last year headed into the winter meetings was what the white sox were doing. But that was still a case of the hype more than when it took place because the Sale trade went down on December 6, 2016. The M's were largely what made the offseason more interesting last year by trading for Jean Segura November 23, 2016 well before the winter meetings.

 

[chibears55]

See I don't think it does because my point is those players wouldn't have signed by now anyways. If it's after the winter meetings and Darvish still hasn't signed then sure they held up the market but as I just pointed out there's a whole slew of guys who sign between the 5th and the 20th in years that Stanton/Ohtani did not exist on the open market.

Difference this year is Ohtani supposed to be extrodinary and he coming cheap...

So every team who was willing to pony up the 20 mil was waiting for his posting to try and woo him...

Teams would rather sign him over what it gonna cost for Arrieta Darvish Cobb

So yes he holding things up a bit til he picks a team..

Then the dominos will fall as far as pitching goes


As far as Stanton goes, ill agree he not holding deals up as much as Ohtani is with the SPs..

Especially since we've known it down to 2 teams, giants and cardinals unless a last minute surprise happens



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[beckdawg]

Difference this year is Ohtani supposed to be extrodinary and he coming cheap...

So every team who was willing to pony up the 20 mil was waiting for his posting to try and woo him...

Teams would rather sign him over what it gonna cost for Arrieta Darvish Cobb

So yes he holding things up a bit til he picks a team..

Then the dominos will fall as far as pitching goes


As far as Stanton goes, ill agree he not holding deals up as much as Ohtani is with the SPs..

Especially since we've known it down to 2 teams, giants and cardinals unless a last minute surprise happens



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You don't actually pay the money unless he agrees to sign with you. it's not like it's held until he signs. You pledge the money and if he agrees to sign with you then you have to give it up. I mean look I just don't believe he held anything up because at the worst he's costing a team $24 mil over 1 year. And I'm not even sure you have to pay that all in one lump sum. You might be able to pay it over multiple years to his Japnaese team. The money is literally no big deal.

If you want to argue Ohtani is holding up Texas' plans and/or Chicago Cubs then sure. I think you can make that argument. But of the 7 teams in the running they are the only teams who need 2 starters and can afford the type of money Arrieta/Darvish are going to get. I mean maybe you could argue SD but they are a bit weird place rebuild wise.

And the thing is for all we know Ohtani signs at or before the winter meetings. He's supposedly already met with SF. And given he only has another 18 or so days to decided that shit is gonna move quick. The only way he's holding things up is if it drags out Darvish/Arrieta past the winter meetings but I'd be surprised if that were to happen. My guess is his team will have set up meetings all this week and he'll decide within the first day or two of the winter meetings at which point any contingent offers teams have made who miss out on him will quickly go through.

 

[beckdawg]

The Rangers have struck a deal with lefty Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Minor will need to pass a physical before the contract is finalized.

Well that's one name off the cubs potential board.

Jon Morosi
✔
@jonmorosi
Source: #Rangers plan for Mike Minor to be a starter, as @Ken_Rosenthal and @Evan_P_Grant indicated, if Minor passes physical to complete multiyear agreement. @MLB @MLBNetwork
8:37 PM - Dec 4, 2017

This is also interesting because presumably it puts them down another starter. They previously signed Fister. With Cole Hamels already in tow and Martin Perez, they don't have a ton of room on their staff. Obviously there's room for Ohtani but it would seem to indicate it's just him or someone to replace him they are after if they don't land him.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well that's one name off the cubs potential board.



This is also interesting because presumably it puts them down another starter. They previously signed Fister. With Cole Hamels already in tow and Martin Perez, they don't have a ton of room on their staff. Obviously there's room for Ohtani but it would seem to indicate it's just him or someone to replace him they are after if they don't land him.

But there is something to say with a team making moves in case they do not win the sweepstakes instead of losing him and players you lost to other teams as well.

 

[CSF77]

Really like this under the radar move.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/cardinals-nearing-multi-year-deal-with-miles-mikolas.html