Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[beckdawg]

Yes Vitters would be a upgrade to the current hitters but the true lacking is a LH hitting upgrade to Schierholtz. I do not see a answer in the system outside of moving Rizzo to LF and Vogelbach at 1B to be honest. But that solution is 2 years out.

I think you're taking my comment and applying it too long term. Additionally, while agree you eventually need more lefties, you're only seeing lefties around 25% of the time and at the moment they need someone who can hit in general. I'm not sure about Vitters vs LH pitching as fangraphs doesn't have minor league splits. Perhaps he hits lefties decent enough which makes it some what less of an issue. But overall, I'm looking at Vitters more in the time frame until Almora starts seeing time unless he starts hitting at the MLB level. If he does, then you probably have a decision to make with him and Lake potentially moving someone or having one be the 4th OF.

Also, we've had the long debates on Castro to 2B before so I'm not going to get into it too much but the fact that Alcantara is a switch hitter plays into my reasoning for that. Admittedly, I'm extremely high on Alcantara and I honestly think he may end up being the better pro player than Soler and Almora. I just think Alcantara may end up being too good to trade and trying to force him into the line up as an OF seems really wonky. That's most of my reasoning behind Castro to 2B because that's frankly the only way I see it working with him.

That being said, I really do hope they start considering trading for players. The sexy thing is guys like Cargo but if there's one thing the cardinals have long done it has been dealing for guys who are undervalued for some reason be it having down years or teams selling off for salary relief. And given that the cubs have the extra money they didn't end up using on Tanaka, eating some salary to pick up some players at the trade deadline could be pretty interesting.

 

[CSF77]

I think you're taking my comment and applying it too long term. Additionally, while agree you eventually need more lefties, you're only seeing lefties around 25% of the time and at the moment they need someone who can hit in general. I'm not sure about Vitters vs LH pitching as fangraphs doesn't have minor league splits. Perhaps he hits lefties decent enough which makes it some what less of an issue. But overall, I'm looking at Vitters more in the time frame until Almora starts seeing time unless he starts hitting at the MLB level. If he does, then you probably have a decision to make with him and Lake potentially moving someone or having one be the 4th OF.

Also, we've had the long debates on Castro to 2B before so I'm not going to get into it too much but the fact that Alcantara is a switch hitter plays into my reasoning for that. Admittedly, I'm extremely high on Alcantara and I honestly think he may end up being the better pro player than Soler and Almora. I just think Alcantara may end up being too good to trade and trying to force him into the line up as an OF seems really wonky. That's most of my reasoning behind Castro to 2B because that's frankly the only way I see it working with him.

That being said, I really do hope they start considering trading for players. The sexy thing is guys like Cargo but if there's one thing the cardinals have long done it has been dealing for guys who are undervalued for some reason be it having down years or teams selling off for salary relief. And given that the cubs have the extra money they didn't end up using on Tanaka, eating some salary to pick up some players at the trade deadline could be pretty interesting.

To let you know I was not a fan of the Almora signing. They should have nabbed Appel when he fell into their laps.

That said: Here is the problem. They need to get away from the whole LH/RH match up mentality in general. That mentality means they are too cheap to pay for quality and just plug and play.

 

[CSF77]

A temp solution:

1: Bonifacio 2B
2: Castro SS
3: Rizzo 1B
4: Lake CF
5: Schierholtz/Ruggiano RF
6: Vitters LF
7: Olt/Valbuena 3B
8: Castillo C

Barney make a UI
Kalish and Sweeney need to get canned.

On back fill after Vitters. don't matter much. I would use Ruggiano or Olt to DH. It would almost make sense to keep Rosscup in the pen as the bull pen has been blowing

 

[beckdawg]

To let you know I was not a fan of the Almora signing. They should have nabbed Appel when he fell into their laps.

That said: Here is the problem. They need to get away from the whole LH/RH match up mentality in general. That mentality means they are too cheap to pay for quality and just plug and play.

I can't say I entirely agree about the LH/RH match up. However, they are having to do it too many places. You can feasibly get away with it at one position potentially two if you go one infield one outfield but they are doing it to some extent in LF, RF, CF, 2B and 3B. If you look at the production they got out of 3B last year, that shows the power of platoons. However, in their current situation you're not going to have enough good match ups to make all that subbing work in my opinion.

 

[beckdawg]

A temp solution:

1: Bonifacio 2B
2: Castro SS
3: Rizzo 1B
4: Lake CF
5: Schierholtz/Ruggiano RF
6: Vitters LF
7: Olt/Valbuena 3B
8: Castillo C

Barney make a UI
Kalish and Sweeney need to get canned.

On back fill after Vitters. don't matter much. I would use Ruggiano or Olt to DH. It would almost make sense to keep Rosscup in the pen as the bull pen has been blowing

I'd be some what fine with that sort of look for the meanwhile.

 

[CSF77]

That being said, I really do hope they start considering trading for players. The sexy thing is guys like Cargo but if there's one thing the cardinals have long done it has been dealing for guys who are undervalued for some reason be it having down years or teams selling off for salary relief. And given that the cubs have the extra money they didn't end up using on Tanaka, eating some salary to pick up some players at the trade deadline could be pretty interesting.

I can't see them becoming buyers until they are playing at a .500 clip with homegrown.

The team needs a S/P first. Then a LH power hitter.

Looking at the top power hitter on the farm:
Baez/Bryant/Soler. All RH

Vogelbach limited due to his D.

This is why I felt it made sense to go after Granderson.

Cargo yes he would be worth trading for and I would pay heavy for him.

 

[beckdawg]

I can't see them becoming buyers until they are playing at a .500 clip with homegrown.

The team needs a S/P first. Then a power hitting LH power hitter.

Looking at the top power hitter on the farm:
Baez/Bryant/Soler. All RH

Vogelbach limited due to his D.

This is why I felt it made sense to go after Granderson.

Cargo yes he would be worth trading for and I would pay heavy for him.

I doubt they go after Cargo types before they get to the clip you mention. However, if they can catch a team selling off a semi young player on a down year that could rebound or a cash strapped team selling low on a guy making money I think they would consider it. Those type of trades are probably more complimentary players than cores but you never know. A good example is someone like Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy. If they can add more players like Bonifacio for relatively cheap prices like the Edmonds trade it could go a long way for them.

 

[CSF77]

I can't say I entirely agree about the LH/RH match up. However, they are having to do it too many places. You can feasibly get away with it at one position potentially two if you go one infield one outfield but they are doing it to some extent in LF, RF, CF, 2B and 3B. If you look at the production they got out of 3B last year, that shows the power of platoons. However, in their current situation you're not going to have enough good match ups to make all that subbing work in my opinion.

Olt/Valbuena is a poor mans solution to 3B. Vs spending on a better solution. Now this one reason is why I'm rooting for Bryant to keep at 3B. no platoon as he is a complete hitter and you do not want to take the bat out of his hands.

Olt lacks in making contact. Yes he may BB at a 14% clip but he will SO at a 25% clip as well.

Look at him right now: 22 K's in 62 AB's in his career(35%). 9 for 29 this year(31%). 25% is a strong guess for his future and that is too much swing and miss for my taste.

 

[CSF77]

I doubt they go after Cargo types before they get to the clip you mention. However, if they can catch a team selling off a semi young player on a down year that could rebound or a cash strapped team selling low on a guy making money I think they would consider it. Those type of trades are probably more complimentary players than cores but you never know. A good example is someone like Jim Edmonds for Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy. If they can add more players like Bonifacio for relatively cheap prices like the Edmonds trade it could go a long way for them.

I can see it. Say they finish this year and sell off Shark, Bonifacio, Schierholtz and Hammel. They back fill the rotation with Hendricks and have to rent a SP again while Edwards is at AAA in 2015.

Baez and Castro become the SS/2B next year. Bryant maybe at 3B. Not sure here....maybe if he gets hot this year.

So say a best case:
Bryant 3B
Baez 2B
Castro SS
Rizzo 1B

LF:
CF:
RF:

That is where you are at. If they used Almora and Soler to get Cargo. It would take Johnson also I believe.
(Alcantara also to push it)

Carlos Gonzalez cf
7 years/$80M (2011-17)

7 years/$80M (2011-17)
signed extension with Colorado 1//11/11
$3M signing bonus
11:$1M, 12:$5M, 13:$7.5M, 14:$10.5M, 15:$16M, 16:$17M, 17:$20M
award bonuses: $25,000 each for Gold
Glove, All-Star selection. $50,000 for Silver Slugger. $75,000 for LCS
MVP. $0.1M each for MVP, WS MVP
$1M assignment bonus if traded

It makes sense for the Rocks. He scales up from 10.5 mil to 16 mil that year and if they can get 4 for 1 with 3 in the top 100 it could be done.

After that the OF shapes up as Vitters in LF, Cargo in CF and Lake converted into a RF. Where his big arm pays off more.

 

[beckdawg]

Olt/Valbuena is a poor mans solution to 3B. Vs spending on a better solution. Now this one reason is why I'm rooting for Bryant to keep at 3B. no platoon as he is a complete hitter and you do not want to take the bat out of his hands.

Olt lacks in making contact. Yes he may BB at a 14% clip but he will SO at a 25% clip as well.

Look at him right now: 22 K's in 62 AB's in his career(35%). 9 for 29 this year(31%). 25% is a strong guess for his future and that is too much swing and miss for my taste.

I'm not holding out a ton of hope for Olt but there's some reason to hope he can be an average level player. I said this some where else but he's currently hitting .207/.258/.448. He's some where around 10% lower than his career walk rates at the moment and has a .222 BABIP. A .250 BABIP would be extremely low. 10% in walks over a full season is around 40 points in OB. So if you add that .30 points on average/OBP and 40 points on OBP you're looking at something like .237/.328/.450ish. That's Adam Dunn light type numbers or perhaps Mark Reynolds is a better comparison. Either way, he's maybe not a first division regular but assuming that's where he's at you're talking a guy who's going to hang around the league as a starter.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not holding out a ton of hope for Olt but there's some reason to hope he can be an average level player. I said this some where else but he's currently hitting .207/.258/.448. He's some where around 10% lower than his career walk rates at the moment and has a .222 BABIP. A .250 BABIP would be extremely low. 10% in walks over a full season is around 40 points in OB. So if you add that .30 points on average/OBP and 40 points on OBP you're looking at something like .237/.328/.450ish. That's Adam Dunn light type numbers or perhaps Mark Reynolds is a better comparison. Either way, he's maybe not a first division regular but assuming that's where he's at you're talking a guy who's going to hang around the league as a starter.

Kuz IMO. Journeyman type. If he was able to put up 10% BB and a 20% SO rate while putting up a .350 OBA and a .460+ SLG you keep him around. Even though Bryant has a higher ceiling.

Seeing how Vitters is at a 10% BB rate and has always had more contact than Olt I've flipped my judgement on them.

 

[beckdawg]

Kuz IMO. Journeyman type. If he was able to put up 10% BB and a 20% SO rate while putting up a .350 OBA and a .460+ SLG you keep him around. Even though Bryant has a higher ceiling.

Seeing how Vitters is at a 10% BB rate and has always had more contact than Olt I've flipped my judgement on them.

Yeah I think Mark Reynolds is pretty fair too as he's bounced around to 3 teams over 9 years. Reynolds also has a 11.6%/32.4% career walk/k rate which fits with Olt's type. I doubt he's a long term piece for the cubs but they definitely could use him for his cheap pre-FA years especially while they are still building their team talent level up.

 

[CSF77]

Yeah I think Mark Reynolds is pretty fair too as he's bounced around to 3 teams over 9 years. Reynolds also has a 11.6%/32.4% career walk/k rate which fits with Olt's type. I doubt he's a long term piece for the cubs but they definitely could use him for his cheap pre-FA years especially while they are still building their team talent level up.

It depends on Bryant. If he is able to play 3B and forces a promotion this year then I'm am thinking on selling Olt off.

 

[CSF77]

Bryant: 10 for 35. .286/.629 SLG 8 BB well over 10% BB rate. 3 HR's. If he keeps this pace through Apr I would push him up in May to Iowa and promote Vitters at that point. Cut Kalish as he has little investment into. Then I would run that line up until the trade deadline. Piece off Olt and Bonifacio then promote Bryant and Baez. Let them play every day with that line up.

As far as pitching goes.

Starting Pitchers

Brett Anderson (27) - $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Josh Beckett (35)
Chad Billingsley (30) - $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout
Joe Blanton (34) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
A.J. Burnett (38) - mutual option
Chris Capuano (36)
Bruce Chen (38) - $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Wei-Yin Chen (29) - $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout
Kevin Correia (34)
Johnny Cueto (29) - $10MM club option with an $800K buyout
Jorge De La Rosa (34)
Ryan Dempster (38)
Gavin Floyd (32)
Yovani Gallardo (29) - $13MM club option with a $600K buyout
Jason Hammel (32)
J.A. Happ (32) - $6.7MM club option
Aaron Harang (37)
Dan Haren (34) - $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014
Roberto Hernandez (34)
Luke Hochevar (31)
Hisashi Iwakuma (34) - $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Johnson (31)
Kyle Kendrick (30)
Jon Lester (31)*******************
Colby Lewis (35)
Francisco Liriano (31)**************
Paul Maholm (33)
Justin Masterson (30)**************
Brandon McCarthy (31)
Brandon Morrow (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jeff Niemann (32)
Ross Ohlendorf (32)
Felipe Paulino (31) - $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Jake Peavy (34)
Wandy Rodriguez (36)
Ervin Santana (32)
Joe Saunders (34)
Max Scherzer (30)
James Shields (33)***************
Carlos Villanueva (31)
Ryan Vogelsong (37)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Jerome Williams (33)


That is who is on the board next year. To be honest if they extend Hammel and Shark it wouldn't be a bad option.

 

[Boobaby1]

Johnny Cueto has my vote, and I would see what it would take to get him. He is a TOR pitcher and would look good in a Cubs uniform.

The Reds probably won't sign all of their pitchers. Bailey is in, but Latos, Cueto, and Leake's contracts are coming due quickly, and a lot of money is already tied up in Votto, Phillips, Bruce, and Bailey. Something has to give.

 

[beckdawg]

Johnny Cueto has my vote, and I would see what it would take to get him. He is a TOR pitcher and would look good in a Cubs uniform.

The Reds probably won't sign all of their pitchers. Bailey is in, but Latos, Cueto, and Leake's contracts are coming due quickly, and a lot of money is already tied up in Votto, Phillips, Bruce, and Bailey. Something has to give.

Masterson from CLE is another possibility as they seem to be far off in contract talks. It could honestly be a pretty busy trade deadline pitching wise. Shields with the royals currently being 6-7, the indians being 7-7, reds being 6-9, cubs with Shark being 4-10, possibly the phillies moving cliff lee at 6-8,

 

[CSF77]

Francisco Liriano (31)

I would offer him a 5 year deal. He is making 6 mil this year and this would be his big payday offer. 8 mil 2015, 12 mil 2016, 16 mil 2017, (player option)18 mil 2018, (Mutual option)20 mil 2019 74 mil add 1 mil signing bonus for 75 mil offer sheet.

That puts the rotation at Liriano, Wood, Jackson, Arrieta and Hendricks (hopefully) I would put Arrieta in between Liriano and Wood to split them up.

Masterson is going to be the 1a Shields will be 1 #1 target. Lir will fall under Lester.

I wouldn't hold my breath on any club option guy at all.

So I can see Shields going to the Yanks. Just the way they operate. Lester resigned by Bo-sox. Masterson becomes the big fish due to his age. He should be interesting. I could see Seat. playing big boy here as they are investing heavy now.

Lir is a guy I can see come over.

 

[CSF77]

Another reason is we have not seen Jake Arrieta to this point. He is a wild card IMO. He has top of the rotation stuff and looked pretty solid at the end of the year.

His numbers in rehab: 1/1 0.73 ERA, 0.81 WHIP 9 SO in 12.1 IP after 3 starts. He might be ready after 1 more time.


Pen Arodys Vizcaino should be there next year. Daytona: 2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP. 3 SO in 4 IP. He should be ready next year.

If Rondon continues to develop and Rosscup keeps looking impressive that should be supported by the farm.

 

[beckdawg]

Masterson is going to be the 1a Shields will be 1 #1 target. Lir will fall under Lester.

I've said this before but it would be rather interesting if they dealt Shark and then used some of the players they got back to land someone like Masterson who from what I've seen wants less than Shark does to re-sign long term. If the two players end up a wash prospect wise but they can nail down a deal with Masterson at the price they want it sort of solves the problem. Interesting side note as well, the Theo regime in boston drafted Masterson. He was part of a trade to get Victor Martinez. I'm not saying that means anything in of itself but clearly Masterson is a type of pitcher this front office likes.

 

[theberserkfury]

Is Masterson someone else who isn't considered to have reached his peak/potential?