Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[brett05]

Why? In the middle of a rebuild you want 22 year old players. That would have been anti-productive to the rebuild.

Because it was his peak value. Not having Castro the last 2.5 seasons wouldn't have made them any worse and very well would have them closer to competing

 

[chibears55]

The Cubs had no problem trading 29 YO best catcher Geo Soto in 2012.

Lol.. yea because he was really going far hitting .218 .228 and .198 3 of last 4 yrs with them

 

[chibears55]

Because it was his peak value. Not having Castro the last 2.5 seasons wouldn't have made them any worse and very well would have them closer to competing

Lmao... sox shouldve traded sales then last yr at deadline when he was at peak value, they couldn't be any worse

 

[Captain Obvious]

Because it was his peak value. Not having Castro the last 2.5 seasons wouldn't have made them any worse and very well would have them closer to competing

This is absolutely absurd. Castro is clearly having a better year this year than any other year in his career. I'm pretty sure Castro being one of the top SSs in nearly every offensive category make them closer to competing.

The Cubs had no reason to trade him. They didn't have any SSs in the system that they were blocking. And even now, Baez doesn't project as a SS.

 

[nwfisch]

Lol.. yea because he was really going far hitting .218 .228 and .198 3 of last 4 yrs with them

Forgot to make that green =)

 

[chibears55]

Forgot to make that green =)

As in the weed he was also smoking at the time ; )))

 

[chibears55]

In case you were wondering about him..

@TheCCO: Dillon Maples RT @TheCCO_Minors 2011 14th round pick @dsmaples making his first start of the season for the AZL #Cubs tonight

 

[Captain Obvious]

In case you were wondering about him..

@TheCCO: Dillon Maples RT @TheCCO_Minors 2011 14th round pick @dsmaples making his first start of the season for the AZL #Cubs tonight

He went 2 IP, 2H, 2K. I bet they pitch him 2 or 3 more times there then send him to KC.

 

[beckdawg]

Someone asked about this previously.... but here's Maples

Great to see Dillon Maples back on the mound again. He pitched 2 scoreless innings, striking out 2 and, most importantly for Maples, not walking a batter.

 

[brett05]

Lmao... sox shouldve traded sales then last yr at deadline when he was at peak value, they couldn't be any worse

 

[brett05]

This is absolutely absurd. Castro is clearly having a better year this year than any other year in his career. I'm pretty sure Castro being one of the top SSs in nearly every offensive category make them closer to competing.

The Cubs had no reason to trade him. They didn't have any SSs in the system that they were blocking. And even now, Baez doesn't project as a SS.

In the land of the blind the one eyed man...nvm

 

[beckdawg]

Can I ask a semi-relevant question? Is Ian Desmond a tradeable player? Desmond hit .280/.331/.453 last year with 6.6%/22.1% bb/k rate a .341 wOBA and 20 homers 21 SBs and 4.4 UZR/150. Thus far that's been the peak of his career WAR wise and he is a career .269/.314/.431 hitter.

I'm guessing at least a few of you would say yes at the right price. The reason I ask is to remove the home-tinted glasses here. Castro's projected season this year is .288/.334/.470 with 5.7%/17.6% bb/k rate, a .350 wOBA and 21 homers, 2 SBs and a -9.4 UZR/150 and is a career .283/.323/.412 hitter. In any objective conversation the 2013 Ian Desmond is better than this current Castro because he has more speed, plays better defense and is as good of a hitter. The only thing Castro has going for him is he is 24 compared to Desmond who was 27. However, are those additional years really going to make Castro a better player and if so how?

Desmond was called up at 23 and had 1849 PAs before last year. Castro was called up at 20 and had 2617 PAs prior to this season. So, there's no more of the young kid jitters. By now they are worked out. Castro isn't going to start stealing more bases. In fact the opposite has happened. He's stopped. While that doesn't really matter I'm just saying he's not adding value there. Castro appears to have already added the power that often comes with age. So, I don't think that's another area he can improve. I mean he's not seriously going to hit more than 25+ HRs right? He really hasn't shown any measurable improvement defensively. His -9.4 UZR/150 is the worst of his career and specifically the range portion of it has decreased from a positive to a negative. That sort of goes in line with the steals aspect. So, tangibly the only other area that leaves is his average and walk rate. At .288 it seems really unlikely he'll measurably improve his average. I mean he might have a few .300 years down the line but we're not going to see a jump to .320+. And as far as his walk rate, it's identical to his rookie season.

In other words, this is what Castro is for better or worse. As for the question at hand about trading him, if you're going to entertain the idea of trading Shark why wouldn't you at least listen on Castro? Shark arguably does have room to grow and he's been as good if not better as a pitcher which is again, arguably harder to fill. And in the case of Castro, you potentially have a better hitting replacement near ready in Baez where as Shark you're hoping to replace him with the trade returns. This isn't to say you either A) have to trade him a la Shark situation where you're at a contract impasse or B) that you even should or C) even if you do trade him that it has to be today or even this off season. Maybe you are a better team with him. However, what if someone comes and offers you the Hershel Walker trade of baseball? You seriously going to turn down someone being franchise changing stupid for someone who's not even the best player at his position let alone the best player in the league?

Additionally, while Castro is clearly one of the better SS in the league that doesn't necessarily mean he's the best SS for the cubs. For example, some what ironically Theo when with the Red Sox traded Nomar. I don't think anyone can objectively say prior to the trade that Orlando Cabrera was a better SS than Nomar. Nomar was coming off of 7 seasons with the following WAR 6.4, 7.3, 6.3, 7.6, 0.3, 4.8, and 5.7. You're essentially talking MVP caliber player for the beginning of that. Cabrera had a 3.1 WAR season and a 4.4 season prior. However, by that point in his career Nomar was no longer a very good defensive player. Additionally, Cabrera gave the red sox a top of the order hitter with speed rather than a middle of the order hitter that Nomar had been. Remember that team already had Papi and Manny for the heart of the order. However, other than Damon they didn't have much if any speed. With Varitek and Millar they had more than enough power to offset the loss of losing Nomar. And maybe not entirely because of it but they did win the world series that year.

Now how does this pertain to the cubs? If you assume Baez and Bryant are the goods you're going to have 3 great heart of the line up hitters with Rizzo. Alcantara in theory provides you with 20 or so HRs. You also are talking about Schwarber as a possibility, Soler and Almora may have above average power as well. In a some what freaky coincidence what the cubs have almost none of is speed. Almoara isn't going to steal a ton of bases. Alcantara might. Baez can but he'll likely grow more power and lose that speed similar to the way Soriano and A-Rod did. So, I ask the question if that happens then do the cubs really need a 6, 7 or 8 hitter who hits 20 HRs and plays below average defense? Keep in mind that there are currently questions about Baez, Bryant and Alcantara's defensive positions and ultimately effectiveness. And outside of Almora there aren't a ton of guys in the system known for playing amazing defense. So again I ask a question. Would the cubs actually be better off with an Ozzie Guillen type(elite defense meh bat decent speed) who could be plugged into the #1 or #2 holes? An elite defender would mask some of the issues you may have in the infield with Baez/Bryant/Alcantara. It seems like they are going to have a crap ton of offense with or without Castro. Additionally, you presumably would get an elite talent back as part of the trade likely a pitcher.

Ultimately, it's about acquiring the best team not the best players. If that's with Castro, I'm fine with keeping him. However, I think the argument I just made illustrates at least one compelling argument where they are a better team despite getting rid of him.

 

[CSF77]

Castro looks so good because the talent around him is so bad.

His OBA is .334. His SLG is .470. Sure good when you put it up against other SS but pretty much not game changing stats. It is still making an out 2/3's of the time.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Castro looks so good because the talent around him is so bad.

So, IOW, he's a SS, but you don't want to compare him to other SS.

 

[SilenceS]

Every argument is about players who havent performed at the major league level. Castro has a real good shot to make his 3rd all star game. Lets trade him because we have prospects in the minors. To move Castro would be dumb and it doesnt look like the Cubs are entertaining any of it. The ones who entertain the trade are the ones who constantly under appreciate him. He is the 2nd/3rd best hitting SS in the league right now. He is 24 before his peak power years. He is setting career highs across the board and that includes walks. He isnt even in the prime age of a baseball player. but **** it, lets trade him.

Oh, and Nomar was traded because the Red Sox ownership and him hated each other. He basically didnt want to play for them anymore and had a mysterious injury. This is Peter Gammons on the Nomar trade.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1855557

 

[dabears253313]

Every argument is about players who havent performed at the major league level. Castro has a real good shot to make his 3rd all star game. Lets trade him because we have prospects in the minors. To move Castro would be dumb and it doesnt look like the Cubs are entertaining any of it. The ones who entertain the trade are the ones who constantly under appreciate him. He is the 2nd/3rd best hitting SS in the league right now. He is 24 before his peak power years. He is setting career highs across the board and that includes walks. He isnt even in the prime age of a baseball player. but **** it, lets trade him.

Oh, and Nomar was traded because the Red Sox ownership and him hated each other. He basically didnt want to play for them anymore and had a mysterious injury. This is Peter Gammons on the Nomar trade.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1855557

Prospects aren't guaranteed to work out either. I like Javier Baez and I think he will be a good player, but there is not guarantee. People whine and complain about Starlin Castro's fielding when Baez is doing worse in AAA. I think Baez made 40 something errors in 2013 and he strikes out a lot.

Castro came up at age 20 and was an all star by 21. He's still young and has the MLB experience. He's among the league leaders for extra base hits for shortstops, might even be up there for all of the NL or MLB.

 

[beckdawg]

Oh, and Nomar was traded because the Red Sox ownership and him hated each other. He basically didnt want to play for them anymore and had a mysterious injury.

Either way the comments I made are still relevant. Nomar was a bad defender at that point in his career. They did add a better defensive shortstop with better speed. They were 56-46(.549) at the trade deadline. They finished 98-64(.605) which means they finished the season 42-18(.700) after the trade. Whether it was an intended consequence or not really doesn't matter.

 

[brett05]

Can I ask a semi-relevant question? Is Ian Desmond a tradeable player? Desmond hit .280/.331/.453 last year with 6.6%/22.1% bb/k rate a .341 wOBA and 20 homers 21 SBs and 4.4 UZR/150. Thus far that's been the peak of his career WAR wise and he is a career .269/.314/.431 hitter.

I'm guessing at least a few of you would say yes at the right price. The reason I ask is to remove the home-tinted glasses here. Castro's projected season this year is .288/.334/.470 with 5.7%/17.6% bb/k rate, a .350 wOBA and 21 homers, 2 SBs and a -9.4 UZR/150 and is a career .283/.323/.412 hitter. In any objective conversation the 2013 Ian Desmond is better than this current Castro because he has more speed, plays better defense and is as good of a hitter. The only thing Castro has going for him is he is 24 compared to Desmond who was 27. However, are those additional years really going to make Castro a better player and if so how?

Desmond was called up at 23 and had 1849 PAs before last year. Castro was called up at 20 and had 2617 PAs prior to this season. So, there's no more of the young kid jitters. By now they are worked out. Castro isn't going to start stealing more bases. In fact the opposite has happened. He's stopped. While that doesn't really matter I'm just saying he's not adding value there. Castro appears to have already added the power that often comes with age. So, I don't think that's another area he can improve. I mean he's not seriously going to hit more than 25+ HRs right? He really hasn't shown any measurable improvement defensively. His -9.4 UZR/150 is the worst of his career and specifically the range portion of it has decreased from a positive to a negative. That sort of goes in line with the steals aspect. So, tangibly the only other area that leaves is his average and walk rate. At .288 it seems really unlikely he'll measurably improve his average. I mean he might have a few .300 years down the line but we're not going to see a jump to .320+. And as far as his walk rate, it's identical to his rookie season.

In other words, this is what Castro is for better or worse. As for the question at hand about trading him, if you're going to entertain the idea of trading Shark why wouldn't you at least listen on Castro? Shark arguably does have room to grow and he's been as good if not better as a pitcher which is again, arguably harder to fill. And in the case of Castro, you potentially have a better hitting replacement near ready in Baez where as Shark you're hoping to replace him with the trade returns. This isn't to say you either A) have to trade him a la Shark situation where you're at a contract impasse or B) that you even should or C) even if you do trade him that it has to be today or even this off season. Maybe you are a better team with him. However, what if someone comes and offers you the Hershel Walker trade of baseball? You seriously going to turn down someone being franchise changing stupid for someone who's not even the best player at his position let alone the best player in the league?

Additionally, while Castro is clearly one of the better SS in the league that doesn't necessarily mean he's the best SS for the cubs. For example, some what ironically Theo when with the Red Sox traded Nomar. I don't think anyone can objectively say prior to the trade that Orlando Cabrera was a better SS than Nomar. Nomar was coming off of 7 seasons with the following WAR 6.4, 7.3, 6.3, 7.6, 0.3, 4.8, and 5.7. You're essentially talking MVP caliber player for the beginning of that. Cabrera had a 3.1 WAR season and a 4.4 season prior. However, by that point in his career Nomar was no longer a very good defensive player. Additionally, Cabrera gave the red sox a top of the order hitter with speed rather than a middle of the order hitter that Nomar had been. Remember that team already had Papi and Manny for the heart of the order. However, other than Damon they didn't have much if any speed. With Varitek and Millar they had more than enough power to offset the loss of losing Nomar. And maybe not entirely because of it but they did win the world series that year.

Now how does this pertain to the cubs? If you assume Baez and Bryant are the goods you're going to have 3 great heart of the line up hitters with Rizzo. Alcantara in theory provides you with 20 or so HRs. You also are talking about Schwarber as a possibility, Soler and Almora may have above average power as well. In a some what freaky coincidence what the cubs have almost none of is speed. Almoara isn't going to steal a ton of bases. Alcantara might. Baez can but he'll likely grow more power and lose that speed similar to the way Soriano and A-Rod did. So, I ask the question if that happens then do the cubs really need a 6, 7 or 8 hitter who hits 20 HRs and plays below average defense? Keep in mind that there are currently questions about Baez, Bryant and Alcantara's defensive positions and ultimately effectiveness. And outside of Almora there aren't a ton of guys in the system known for playing amazing defense. So again I ask a question. Would the cubs actually be better off with an Ozzie Guillen type(elite defense meh bat decent speed) who could be plugged into the #1 or #2 holes? An elite defender would mask some of the issues you may have in the infield with Baez/Bryant/Alcantara. It seems like they are going to have a crap ton of offense with or without Castro. Additionally, you presumably would get an elite talent back as part of the trade likely a pitcher.

Ultimately, it's about acquiring the best team not the best players. If that's with Castro, I'm fine with keeping him. However, I think the argument I just made illustrates at least one compelling argument where they are a better team despite getting rid of him.

Why are you not writing for the front page of CCS? I don't always agree with you but seriously you've been the best thing going on this site with this analysis for quite sometime. I've and I am sure others have enjoyed your writings tons. Seriously, you should check out writing for the site, not just threads.

 

[beckdawg]

People whine and complain about Starlin Castro's fielding when Baez is doing worse in AAA. I think Baez made 40 something errors in 2013

Except he's not. Baez has 78 errors in 1314 chances for a .941 fielding%. 31 of those errors occurred during a 73 game stretch in Daytona last year. His other 202 games he's had a total of 47 errors. If you exclude that obviously abnormal stint he has a career minor league fielding% of .949. Additionally, this year his fielding% is .964.

Castro on the other hand is a career major league fielding% of .962. And if we go back and look at Castro's minor league numbers we see that he had a .942 fielding% in the minors. Incidentally, he too had a weird stint in Daytona where he had 32 errors 90 games there. Not entirely sure what's going on in Daytona but for both it was far and away the largest error total either has had at any stint. Could be a shitty upkeep on the field or they could have a scorer who is exceedingly unfriendly to the players. The best individual stint Castro had at any level with more than 20 games was .955 and as such Baez's year this year is better.

So, at the very least they are equal defensively. And while I'll be the first to acknowledge that fielding% isn't a great metric it's frankly all we have for this sort of conversation because no one tracks advanced metrics in the minors to my knowledge. You an also make an argument that Baez will continue to improve similar to the way Castro did upon promotion to the majors where the upkeep on the fields is better and they get more experience.

That being said, I'd play Baez at 3B regardless unless they want to give him a few years at SS before he moves a la A-Rod and other hit first SS.

 

[beckdawg]

Why are you not writing for the front page of CCS? I don't always agree with you but seriously you've been the best thing going on this site with this analysis for quite sometime. I've and I am sure others have enjoyed your writings tons. Seriously, you should check out writing for the site, not just threads.

Eh... I don't know. Do people read anything there? I kinda of like more of a discussion rather than just writing things. While I clearly can write novels, it's usually triggered by something I see that leads me down a path of thought. I doubt I'd just decided to write something without having being prompted by some idea. With regard to the prospect thing I did, cubs den had just put out it's revised lists and I was curious where people were stats wise. So, I was likely going to look at the stuff myself anyways and by writing it down I sort of get some memory to some of these names. For example, it wasn't until I did the one before the season that Alcantara popped out to me as a potential star. I mean I knew he was good but until I dug into the stats I didn't realize how good. Similar with Schwarber this year.