Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[JosMin]

Soler cant homer tonight cause Smokies rained out, so others will hit 1 in his place for Tonight Prospects Homer Party

@TheCCO: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Jeimer Candelario, Cael Brockmeyer have hit HR in the #Cubs system tonight

So basically I'm trying to lay down to prepare for an early day at work tomorrow and I can't quell this carnal erection I have because THE FUCKING CUBS MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM IS AWESOME.

 

[Parade_Rain]

He is almost just like Barney with less glove.

Gotcha. Nothing going on then.

 

[beckdawg]

He is almost just like Barney with less glove.

Watkins has more bat though not starter bat but he's more well rounded.

 

[SilenceS]

Baez was playing second base again last night. Looks like he is going to get a good bit of time there now. 2 games in a row says something.

 

[SilenceS]

3rd game in a row that Baez will start at 2nd base. I think its safe to say they have begun the movement. Over .900 OPS since May 17.

 

[chibears55]

@IowaCubs: 3 solo HRs in top 2nd: Valaika, Whiteside, Watkins. 3-0 lead at Round Rock.

Cubs Prospects Home run Party getting contagious

 

[TL1961]

@IowaCubs: 3 solo HRs in top 2nd: Valaika, Whiteside, Watkins. 3-0 lead at Round Rock.

Cubs Prospects Home run Party getting contagious

On one hand, these people don't matter.

On the other, the more the merrier!

Valaika?
Whiteside?

Huh?

And Watkins....does he have a future?

 

[beckdawg]

Here's a stat if I ever saw one...

This is about Jen-Ho Tseng.

Incredibly, he has walked just 9 batters all year (1.13 walks per 9 IP) while striking out 64, That is nearly an 8-1 K to bB ratio.

I think he's going to skyrocket up top 100 lists. You could make the argument that he's had as good of a season as Edwards did last year. 8.43 k/9 1.19 bb/9 with a 2.50/2.88 ERA/FIP at 19 in A ball? Yes please.

 

[SilenceS]

Here's a stat if I ever saw one...

This is about Jen-Ho Tseng.


I think he's going to skyrocket up top 100 lists. You could make the argument that he's had as good of a season as Edwards did last year. 8.43 k/9 1.19 bb/9 with a 2.50/2.88 ERA/FIP at 19 in A ball? Yes please.

Sly rocket? I dont think so, he would have to be at a higher level. His skill set isnt monster. To sky rocket at that level the potential has to be there. He has good stuff but not TOR stuff that people talk about. This is more you have to see him over a stat line. I do like him though.

 

[beckdawg]

Sly rocket? I dont think so, he would have to be at a higher level. His skill set isnt monster. To sky rocket at that level the potential has to be there. He has good stuff but not TOR stuff that people talk about. This is more you have to see him over a stat line. I do like him though.

You're welcome to your opinion but I'd point to Edwards' seasons last year. He was 21 in A last year and went from no where to a top 50 prospect on some lists prior to the season. Edwards has been more successful with regard to k's at around 11 k/9 prior to AA but he's also walked around 3 per 9 with around a 2 ERA. If you compare that to 8.43 k/9 1.19 bb/9 and 2.50 ERA for a 19 year old.

And it's not like Tseng wasn't semi-well regarded. Had the IFA period been prior to the start of 2013 he might have been one of the top 5 IFA's but he struggled some at the start of 2013 and that pushed him down. Perhaps your vision of "skyrocketing" and mine are different. I'm just talking about around 50ish on top 100 lists not like.... top 10. As another example, Miguel Almonte was in that range on a number of lists for the Royals and in 2013 he put up 9.09 k/9 2.48 bb/9 with a 3.10/3.04 ERA/FIP as a 20 year old in A.

 

[dabynsky]

You're welcome to your opinion but I'd point to Edwards' seasons last year. He was 21 in A last year and went from no where to a top 50 prospect on some lists prior to the season. Edwards has been more successful with regard to k's at around 11 k/9 prior to AA but he's also walked around 3 per 9 with around a 2 ERA. If you compare that to 8.43 k/9 1.19 bb/9 and 2.50 ERA for a 19 year old.

And it's not like Tseng wasn't semi-well regarded. Had the IFA period been prior to the start of 2013 he might have been one of the top 5 IFA's but he struggled some at the start of 2013 and that pushed him down. Perhaps your vision of "skyrocketing" and mine are different. I'm just talking about around 50ish on top 100 lists not like.... top 10. As another example, Miguel Almonte was in that range on a number of lists for the Royals and in 2013 he put up 9.09 k/9 2.48 bb/9 with a 3.10/3.04 ERA/FIP as a 20 year old in A.

Yes but agree with SilenceS that his stuff doesn't wow like CJ Edwards did. Have to remember what Tseng was when he signed. He was a guy praised for his advanced approach and poise. So him dominating with good command and poise isn't exactly surprising at this level. Now don't misunderstand me Tseng is a very nice prospect and would be getting tons more attention if the Cubs didn't have all the elite prospects that they do. But his stuff is more MOR than TOR.

 

[beckdawg]

Yes but agree with SilenceS that his stuff doesn't wow like CJ Edwards did. Have to remember what Tseng was when he signed. He was a guy praised for his advanced approach and poise. So him dominating with good command and poise isn't exactly surprising at this level. Now don't misunderstand me Tseng is a very nice prospect and would be getting tons more attention if the Cubs didn't have all the elite prospects that they do. But his stuff is more MOR than TOR.

Again, people are welcome to their opinion but you're talking about a 19 year old where as Edwards was 2 years older. His stuff from what I've read(not pretending I'm a scout here) isn't even that bad. You're talking a fastball in the 90-94 range that he can put where ever the hell he wants to go along with an above average curve and he's also got a change up that many scouts feel is his best pitch. If you look at pitch f/x data of pitchers with similar offerings you see guys like the following

Cole Hammels - fastball with 91.0 mph average, with a 2.06 Val/C change up and an average curve and nothing else spectacular.
Kris Medlen - fastball with 89.7 mph average, with a 2.09 Val/C change up as his best offering. He's got an ok curve at 0.66 Val/C but it's not dominating
Jered Weaver - fastball with 89.1 mph average with two decent offerings in a curve and a change up at 1.30 and 1.28 Val/C respectively
James Shields - fastball with a 91.3 mph average with two decent offerings in a curve and a change up at 0.77 and 1.32 Val/C respectively
Anibal Sanchez - fastball with a 91.7 mph average with two decent offerings in a slider and a change up at 0.68 and 1.18 Val/C respectively
Cliff Lee - fastball with a 90.6 mph average with two ok offereings in a curve and a change up at 0.61 and 0.57 Val/C respectively. Lee's likely a good comparison because his control makes his fastball his best pitch at 1.20.

With the exception of Lee, none of those guys has been a top 10 starter but they've all been low end 1's/high end 2's. And at the end of the day you can have the greatest stuff ever but if you can't locate you it does you no good. Take Aaron Sanchez for example. He's supposedly got 3 plus to plus-plus offerings. he also walks a crap ton of batters. What did he do in A ball as a 20 year old? 9.66 k/9 5.08 bb/9 with 2.49/3.57 ERA/FIP.

If you look at the top 30 pitchers in bb/9 since 2010 with a minimum of 500 IP you're talking about the following players Cliff Lee, Carl Pavano, Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, Jordan Zimmermann, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Bronson Arroyo, Joe Blanton, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Chris Sale, David Price, Mike Leake, Madison Bumgarner, Phil Hughes, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Hudson, Stephen Strasburg, and Jake Peavy with Peavy having the lowest at 2.39. The worst players on that list are Leake, Blanton and Pavano. The rest all have roughly 10 WAR or higher which puts them at roughly a 2.25 or higher WAR/season.

The real question becomes just how much k potential is there. If he's above 7.5 k/9 in the majors he's going to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Of the players with 2.4 bb/9 or lower and 8 k/9 or higher you're talking about Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, James Shields, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Jake Peavy, Jered Weaver, and Dan Haren.

So call me crazy but I'm more than willing to buy into someone like Tseng than I am to buy into someone like Sanchez with his "amazing" stuff. Even if he's not much of a K pitcher you have guys like Fister who has been extremely productive the past 4.5 years at 16.4 WAR(3.64 WAR/season).

 

[CSF77]

PHOENIX -- Tsuyoshi Wada will start Wednesday, filling the second vacancy in the Cubs' rotation created by the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.

On Friday, Cubs manager Rick Renteria said Kyle Hendricks will start Tuesday in the first game of a three-game series against the Padres at Wrigley Field. Wada, who made his Major League debut on July 8 against the Reds, will go in the second game.

"We'll see where it goes from there," Renteria said.

Wada has come a long way since Spring Training, when the lefty posted an 8.38 ERA in four games, giving up nine runs over 9 2/3 innings. On Friday, Wada, 33, struck out 10 for the third time this season at Triple-A Iowa, and leads the Pacific Coast League with 120 strikeouts. He is fourth in ERA (2.77) and fifth with a 1.16 WHIP.

The left-hander picked up his 10th win Friday and joined Hendricks with double-digit wins this year.

In his Major League debut at Great American Ball Park, Wada gave up one unearned run on five hits over five innings.

"The reports and how he's been pitching, he's been working more down in the zone and more efficient with his pitches," Renteria said of Wada, adding that he has been able to "elevate when he needs to as opposed to elevating in a non-elevating situation."

The Cubs signed Wada as a free agent in January, but he didn't impress this spring.

"It was a struggle," Renteria said of the lefty's Cactus League games. "A lot of his pitches were elevated, his command was off. He'd get into trouble and had trouble getting out of it. It was good in the fifth inning of that one game in Cincinnati when he got into a jam and ended up getting out of it."

The Cubs acquired right-hander Dan Straily, who owned a 4.93 ERA in the Majors this year, from the Athletics in the July 4 deal, but he is not ready to join the big league team, Renteria said.

"Right now, the plan is to get Straily back on track," Renteria said. "I can't tell you how soon or how far down the road. We're just trying to get him back on track."

 

[SilenceS]

Russell with 2 3 run jacks today. Soler also 1 for 3 with a walk. He is just an OB machine since he has come back. I dont think they can hold him in AA much longer

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not so fast on Schwarber moving from catcher...

But it's his play behind the plate that has garnered some attention of late.

"The early returns have been a little surprising as to how positive it's been for him (behind the plate)," said one NL scout. "(It's) hard to know what to make of that, obviously it's gonna be dictated a little bit by what's the need of the team going forward. It still might not make a ton of sense going forward, but that bat as a catcher is an unworldly profile."

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/25941/cubs-could-face-big-decision-on-schwarber

 

[SilenceS]

Not so fast on Schwarber moving from catcher...



http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/25941/cubs-could-face-big-decision-on-schwarber

I just dont see it. His bat would be ready way before he would be ready at catcher and I dont think his body would let him play it for more than a couple of years.

 

[SilenceS]

Again, people are welcome to their opinion but you're talking about a 19 year old where as Edwards was 2 years older. His stuff from what I've read(not pretending I'm a scout here) isn't even that bad. You're talking a fastball in the 90-94 range that he can put where ever the hell he wants to go along with an above average curve and he's also got a change up that many scouts feel is his best pitch. If you look at pitch f/x data of pitchers with similar offerings you see guys like the following

Cole Hammels - fastball with 91.0 mph average, with a 2.06 Val/C change up and an average curve and nothing else spectacular.
Kris Medlen - fastball with 89.7 mph average, with a 2.09 Val/C change up as his best offering. He's got an ok curve at 0.66 Val/C but it's not dominating
Jered Weaver - fastball with 89.1 mph average with two decent offerings in a curve and a change up at 1.30 and 1.28 Val/C respectively
James Shields - fastball with a 91.3 mph average with two decent offerings in a curve and a change up at 0.77 and 1.32 Val/C respectively
Anibal Sanchez - fastball with a 91.7 mph average with two decent offerings in a slider and a change up at 0.68 and 1.18 Val/C respectively
Cliff Lee - fastball with a 90.6 mph average with two ok offereings in a curve and a change up at 0.61 and 0.57 Val/C respectively. Lee's likely a good comparison because his control makes his fastball his best pitch at 1.20.

With the exception of Lee, none of those guys has been a top 10 starter but they've all been low end 1's/high end 2's. And at the end of the day you can have the greatest stuff ever but if you can't locate you it does you no good. Take Aaron Sanchez for example. He's supposedly got 3 plus to plus-plus offerings. he also walks a crap ton of batters. What did he do in A ball as a 20 year old? 9.66 k/9 5.08 bb/9 with 2.49/3.57 ERA/FIP.

If you look at the top 30 pitchers in bb/9 since 2010 with a minimum of 500 IP you're talking about the following players Cliff Lee, Carl Pavano, Brandon McCarthy, Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Dan Haren, Roy Halladay, Jordan Zimmermann, Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, Bronson Arroyo, Joe Blanton, Hiroki Kuroda, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Rick Porcello, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Chris Sale, David Price, Mike Leake, Madison Bumgarner, Phil Hughes, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Hudson, Stephen Strasburg, and Jake Peavy with Peavy having the lowest at 2.39. The worst players on that list are Leake, Blanton and Pavano. The rest all have roughly 10 WAR or higher which puts them at roughly a 2.25 or higher WAR/season.

The real question becomes just how much k potential is there. If he's above 7.5 k/9 in the majors he's going to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Of the players with 2.4 bb/9 or lower and 8 k/9 or higher you're talking about Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, David Price, Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, James Shields, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Stephen Strasburg, Jake Peavy, Jered Weaver, and Dan Haren.

So call me crazy but I'm more than willing to buy into someone like Tseng than I am to buy into someone like Sanchez with his "amazing" stuff. Even if he's not much of a K pitcher you have guys like Fister who has been extremely productive the past 4.5 years at 16.4 WAR(3.64 WAR/season).

:X m

 

[chibears55]

I just dont see it. His bat would be ready way before he would be ready at catcher and I dont think his body would let him play it for more than a couple of years.

Dont see him being brought up til 2016 , earliest. So they have time to determine if he will be C or LF

 

[JZsportsfan]

I just dont see it. His bat would be ready way before he would be ready at catcher and I dont think his body would let him play it for more than a couple of years.

His value as a catcher would be so much higher, especially to the Cubs than his value as a RF or LF. If Bryant does get moved into the OF, you pretty much have Bryant and Soler taking up the 2 corner OF spots. Schwarber could be traded for pitching but if he could play catcher and then make a switch like Mauer did, that would probably best for the Cubs

 

[theberserkfury]

I think I asked about Baez's recent strikeout rate or something a few days ago... here's an article highlighting his improvements... hasn't been as bad as I think some of us were fearing...

"The blue line (K rate) has stayed in the low 30% range for most of the season, but the orange and grey lines (last 10 game K% and last 30 game K%, respectively) show that he has drastically cut his strikeout rate in recent weeks. In this past week, Baez only struck out twice (TWICE!) in 20 plate appearances. Small sample size caveats and all, but these improvements do correspond to changes he has said he's made in his swing, and are a sign that the overall improvements are not likely to be a fluke."

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-insi...-milb-baseball-javier-baez-turning-it-around/