Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

[SilenceS]

Bryant is actually K'ing at a higher rate then Baez now.

 

[CSF77]

Bryant is actually K'ing at a higher rate then Baez now.

July:
Bryant: .317/.388/.650 BB%: 11.6 SO%: 33.3%
Baez: .290/.343/.629 BB%: 8% SO%: 24.2%

It is a major improvement. It seems that Baez is enjoying the protection of having Bryant's bat behind him.

 

[CSF77]

In theory if you pack talent around talent they will feed off each other.

If you look at a potential June 2015 line up:
Alcantara
Castro
Rizzo
Baez
Bryant
Soler
Open
Castillo

Even if Bryant is striking out at a 30% clip it is lessened over all due to the over all production potential of the everyday line up.

Just looking at that line up you are talking about 2 guys that have surpassed 30 HR's in pro ball. (yes minors) and Rizzo who is on pace to pass 30.

Then potential of having Soler as another.

That is not even getting into Schwarber who has jumped 3 levels like Bryant did.
Bryant last year: 128 AB's 9 HR's
Schwarbrer: 127 AB's 9 HR's.

He looks like he will become a solid LH bat in the middle very soon. Not to mention 18 BB/25 SO's shoot that is like Bryant power with 1:1 BB:SO ratio.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Javier Baez finding a new home at a new position

A shortstop his entire career, Baez moved to the other side of the infield last week and made his regular season debut at second base.

That's where Baez was on Monday during Iowa's 5-4 loss to the New Orleans Zephyrs before 5,088 fans at Principal Park. And it's where he could be for most of the second half of the season.

"(He'll play there) the majority of the time," Iowa manager Marty Pevey said.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ago-cubs-iowa-cubs-baseball-america/12973251/

So who is still sticking with the notion that Baez will be moving to 3B for the Cubs?

 

[Captain Obvious]

So who is still sticking with the notion that Baez will be moving to 3B for the Cubs?

I'm thinking Castro moves to 3rd. They really seem to like Russell at SS. I don't understand why people said that he wouldn't stick, when all reports point to him being the superior SS of the 3.

 

[dabynsky]

And most guys in the 50 range of top 100 lists as pitchers are 2/3 pitchers. I fail to see the point you're making here. My point was that he could be a pitcher in the 50-75 range in a top 100. Pierce Johnson was #80 in mlb.com's rankings before the season and was viewed as a #3 starter. Edwards was viewed as a possibly a 2 and more likely a 3 if he stays in the rotation at around the 40's on various lists.

So, again I'm not sure what your disagreement is here. My original statement was that Tseng would skyrocket up lists which I later clarified meant around the 50 range in top 100 lists. Going from not even a top 5 IFA in 2013 in most people's mind to that range would be a pretty dramatic movement in a year.

I guess we will see. But Pierce Johnson had more upside at the time he was included in the list. He has settled into that middle of the rotation starter profile as his fastball velocity rests more in the same area as Tseng.

I would be pleasantly surprised if Tseng cracked Baseball America's top 100 list. BP I could see because he has been getting a lot love out of the BP crew, but I am guessing he is on the cusp and not solidly in the top 100 like you've been saying. And again it has to do with the upside. I get that you love command in pitchers, but guys with electric stuff are going to be prioritized on these lists until Tseng does what he is doing in the high minors at a young age.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Cubs number 1 farm system in baseball! WHOO!!!

 

[theberserkfury]

Cubs number 1 farm system in baseball! WHOO!!!

Source?

 

[Captain Obvious]

Source?

Keith Law, I believe.

 

[dabynsky]

Keith Law, I believe.

Law has them as the best right now. Not sure BA or BP does midseason farm reports but Parks has suggested that the Cubs would be number 1. We will see at the end of the year, but the impact level ceiling of the prospects in the high minors is going to be tough to beat.

 

[chibears55]

@ESPNChiCubs: Cubs jump to first in farm rankings es.pn/1o6mrAs

 

[SilenceS]

It's us and the twins and everyone else


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[beckdawg]

I guess we will see. But Pierce Johnson had more upside at the time he was included in the list. He has settled into that middle of the rotation starter profile as his fastball velocity rests more in the same area as Tseng.

I would be pleasantly surprised if Tseng cracked Baseball America's top 100 list. BP I could see because he has been getting a lot love out of the BP crew, but I am guessing he is on the cusp and not solidly in the top 100 like you've been saying. And again it has to do with the upside. I get that you love command in pitchers, but guys with electric stuff are going to be prioritized on these lists until Tseng does what he is doing in the high minors at a young age.

Well like I've said, opinions vary. Fundamentally it's difficult for me as someone who's more into stats than scouting to see a player like Tseng with a mid 8 k/9 and a sub 1.5 bb/9 and think that there's many pitching prospects that rate that much higher. I understand what you're saying about that but I just think the idea is kind of flawed. Again to bring up someone like Aaron Sanchez, you have to buy into the idea that something will change with him because he's not had a sub 3.50 ERA above AA and even his K's have been in the 7 range with pretty horrendous walk rates.

Control in general is notoriously underrated which is interesting because it's also way more reliable. Even someone who has 100 mph fastball can easily lose ticks on that and suddenly isn't the same pitcher and that's before you consider the fact that many guys with that sort of stuff have high walk rates that they hopefully "figure out." You honestly need to look no farther than a guy like Arreita to see what I mean. In Baltimore he was a guy with great stuff who never figured out how to pitch with the control to let him sustain. Obviously this year he seems to have it figure out and is an entirely different pitcher. But how often do those type of players actually figure it out vs not? I'd wager a lot of the problem with top 100 lists and pitchers is the fact that there's still this reliance on top end vs consistency and that leads to a lot of the bust potential you talk about with pitching added in with injury concerns for any pitcher of course. Interestingly enough the cubs also took a chance on Hendricks as a big piece of the Dempster trade as a big time control pitcher. Given with the way they have drafted it appears they are more concerned with consistency than top end. You could make the argument about Arrieta and possibly others with more stuff and less control but generally guys like Arrieta and Strop have been lessor trade pieces. Even Vizcaino who was a lessor trade piece had very good control.

Ultimately, ratings service places may take the same approach you're pointing out but if they do I think it's a mistake. And ultimately what he's doing at 19 in A shouldn't be underestimated because he is young for that level. Underwood is the only other pitcher in kane below 20 and with the way Tseng is dominating at Kane it wouldn't be a surprise to see him promoted before the end of the season. And if he gets to A+ you're talking about a league with these players at 20 or younger, Tyler Glasnow(20), Jose Berrios(20), Jake Thompson(20), Trent Szkutnik(20), Chase Edwards(20), Miguel Sulbaran(20), Luis Severino(20), and Brady Lail(20). So, being ready for A+ at 19 would be saying something. Berrios was rated #70 by mlb.com prior to the season. Severino was unrated prior to the season but has seen his stock rise really quickly this year to the point where he made midseason lists. Glasnow was #22 prior to the season. Tompson at a 50 grade was likely fringe top 100. The rest other than Sulbaran and Lail have really mediocre numbers at any level.

So, like I have said, I can see that point of view that he may not have the most top end stuff ever but he's getting players out with a fairly significant age advantage over him. Most of the Kane hitters for example are 21-23. That could mean that as he ages and gets more experience he will be even better. Hendricks is perhaps a good measuring stick for Tseng. We'll see over the second half how things go for Hendricks. If he does well Tseng likely will be as good if not better because he's thus far proven to be better at a younger age. As an example, Hendricks had 7.71 k/9 1.03 bb/9 with a 2.82/2.95 ERA/FIP in A+ as a 22 year old.

 

[dabynsky]

Well like I've said, opinions vary. Fundamentally it's difficult for me as someone who's more into stats than scouting to see a player like Tseng with a mid 8 k/9 and a sub 1.5 bb/9 and think that there's many pitching prospects that rate that much higher. I understand what you're saying about that but I just think the idea is kind of flawed. Again to bring up someone like Aaron Sanchez, you have to buy into the idea that something will change with him because he's not had a sub 3.50 ERA above AA and even his K's have been in the 7 range with pretty horrendous walk rates.

I understand the approach you take I just don't agree with it completely either. I think statistics below AA are virtually meaningless. They do not inform us beyond the scouting of the player. Once players hit that level then I start to pay a bit more attention. Now that is my personal feelings on the subject but many people have expressed ideas that follow the logic that stats become more meaningful as you reach MLB.

Should also point out that what I was arguing was the odds that he ends up on a list, particularly Baseball America that is notoriously scout heavy in terms of approach, and not my personal feelings about Tseng.

 

[SilenceS]

Midseason top five farm systems
July, 22, 2014

By Keith Law | ESPN.com



1. Chicago Cubs

I know Cubs fans have heard this before, but just wait 'til next year, because this club is going to get good in a hurry, at least on the run-scoring side of the ledger. The system already had the minors' best collection of high-end bats, and it added several more over the past seven weeks, including the fourth-best prospect in the minors in shortstop Addison Russell, who came over with promising left fielder Billy McKinney in the Jeff Samardzija trade.

The Cubs also added catcher/left fielder Kyle Schwarber with the fourth overall pick in this year's draft. It's a pick I think was an overdraft in part due to doubts he will stick at either position, but he has raked so far in limited at-bats, mostly against younger competition. They used the savings on Schwarber's bonus to grab several high-upside high school arms later in the draft, including right-hander Dylan Cease, whose elbow ligament injury might require Tommy John surgery but who was seen as a top-15 pick talent before his injury. Cease has a fastball that can touch 100 mph and at times a plus breaking ball. The Cubs also have some promising hitters on their AZL club (rookie league) from their Latin American spending spree in 2013, including bonus babies Gleyber Torres (from Venezuela) and Eloy Jimenez (from the Dominican Republic), both just 17 years old.

These infusions have helped balance out a few disappointments in the system of players I ranked highly coming out of last year. Albert Almora has been a disappointment (.306 OBP in high Class A), continuing his record of awful walk rates in pro ball to date. C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson, their top two arms coming into the year, both have missed substantial time with injuries; Edwards is still on the shelf, and Johnson hasn't been effective at Double-A when healthy. Jeimer Candelario, whose only tool was his bat, hasn't hit at two levels and is about to be buried by the wave of infield prospects ahead of him. Scott Frazier, their sixth-round pick last year, appears to have the yips, with 12 walks and four hit batsmen in 22 batters faced.

Most of the successful arms in the system this year have been pitchers at low-Class A Kane County, particularly undersized Taiwanese right-hander Tseng Jen-Ho and 2012 draftee Paul Blackburn, which means the Cubs probably won't get the starting pitching help they need from their system in the next year or two. Fortunately for them and their fans, they have the bats to trade to acquire pitching from outside the organization.

This has to be the most loaded the Cubs' farm has been in at least 30 years.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Keith Law, I believe.

Yep, I just seen it on ESPN as an insider. I don't have that so...

 

[beckdawg]

I understand the approach you take I just don't agree with it completely either. I think statistics below AA are virtually meaningless. They do not inform us beyond the scouting of the player. Once players hit that level then I start to pay a bit more attention. Now that is my personal feelings on the subject but many people have expressed ideas that follow the logic that stats become more meaningful as you reach MLB.

Should also point out that what I was arguing was the odds that he ends up on a list, particularly Baseball America that is notoriously scout heavy in terms of approach, and not my personal feelings about Tseng.

I get where you're coming from. I wouldn't say stats always matter. To me they are more age related. If you're putting up the kind of numbers Tseng had as a 22 in A then yeah it's kind of meaningless because you're expected to out perform players younger than you. And when we're talking about stats I tend to believe in K/9 and BB/9 more than ERA. So, to see Tseng at good numbers there at a young ages matters to me. Whether or not it does for others I can't say because that's their opinion. Also, ultimately stats get you promoted. If you have a 5+ ERA at level you're unlikely to be promoted.

 

[CSF77]

CHICAGO -- The Cubs have decided to play Arismendy Alcantara at second and center, so the next question is, when do the other top prospects get to the big leagues?

Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer has been asked that a lot.

"I'm not going to sit here and answer that," Hoyer said Tuesday. "There's a lot of baseball left to be played. There may be more guys who come up at some point the rest of the year. It's important to focus on what's out here now.

"It's fun to look at the box scores at [Triple-A] Iowa and [Double-A] Tennessee, but I don't think anytime you switch a guy's position, or a guy has a big night, people shouldn't be clamoring for a promotion."

Javier Baez, the Cubs' top-ranked prospect on MLB.com's list, has started at second base in four of his last five games at Triple-A Iowa. Hoyer said the decision to move Baez from shortstop to second had nothing to do with Tuesday's decision to designate veteran Darwin Barney for assignment.

"We want to increase [Baez's] versatility," Hoyer said. "We thought it was the right thing to do to put him there."

The Cubs had hoped to have Baez playing second before the All-Star break, but decided to wait, as the infielder struggled at the plate.

There also has been talk internally of moving Kris Bryant, the team's first-round Draft pick last year, to the outfield, but Hoyer said they want him to stay at third base.

 

[dabynsky]

Soler to AAA. Almora to AA. Woohoo!

 

[SilenceS]

Soler to AAA. Almora to AA. Woohoo!

About time with Soler. Almora just needs to walk.