Cub's Prospect Watch And Development Discussion Thread

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SilenceS

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He has made some really nice plays in CF. His future isnt at second for the Cubs. I dont know what the issue is.
 

brett05

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Evaluate your toddler as a walker, taking the day he took his first steps through Day #20.

Think the "average" would reflect his Day 20 ability?
True but its better than 18mo old still taking no steps right?
 

chibears55

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Does anyone watching him think he shows signs of being a poor defensive CF? I think he has looked plenty capable - as much or more so as many others playing CF currently. I know the data is supposed to tell us what we don't see with the naked eye. But grading him on the first few weeks? Sorry, I'm not buying it.

Only questionable thing I see on him defensively in CF is his arm, teams will definitely take the extra base on him or try to score from third on a short/medium fly ball..
 

beckdawg

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Well then I suppose it is meaningful that his UZR is now a positive 2.2 and his UZR/150 is 32.6 at CF which is just a shade below 2B defense. Or it could be that numbers like this take a long time to stabilize and don't tell us anything about the player's defensive abilities at a position just like an 0-4 day tells us very little about a hitter's ability.

Perhaps my intentions weren't clear. I'd been up all night and at the end of it so I might not have been as clear as I could have. First of all, my intention wasn't drawing conclusions going forward. You'll notice I made no comment about Alcantara's future in CF just that he had been what I expected. I did make a conclusion about him potentially being one of the better defensive 2B. However, that was a combination of factors not just UZR/150.

As for the meaningfulness issue, the data has meaning. It means in those games that's what he's been which again was my point. In other words, what I was trying to get at was thus far this is what he's been rather than this is what he's going to be.
 

Parade_Rain

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He has made some really nice plays in CF. His future isnt at second for the Cubs. I dont know what the issue is.

The issue is that some people need justification to move Baez from 2B.
 

beckdawg

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The issue is that some people need justification to move Baez from 2B.

Why's pointing out Alcantara has played well at 2B have to be a slight toward Baez?... You know what nevermind. I can see this line of discussion is going no where. I'll drop the subject.
 

Parade_Rain

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Why's pointing out Alcantara has played well at 2B have to be a slight toward Baez?... You know what nevermind. I can see this line of discussion is going no where. I'll drop the subject.
"Some people" is plural. If I was specifically singling you out, I would have used "beckdawg" instead. As the comment immediately prior to yours suggests, there are quite a few people who made wrong predictions and need to feel justified.
 

CSF77

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CHICAGO -- Though Travis Wood bought a child-size Radio Flyer wagon to help utility man Chris Valaika carry all of his gloves, Valaika may need a wheelbarrow, as he's decided to add catching to his defensive repertoire.

When Valaika was promoted from Triple-A Iowa last week, Cubs coaches asked if he'd ever caught. Valaika has played first, second, third and short, and also some outfield, and takes four gloves to the field with him to prepare.

"The next day I told [coach Mike Borzello], 'If [catching] is something you want me to do, I want to work on it,'" Valaika said on Monday. "If it's something I can help with, or be the emergency guy -- for me personally, it's another feather in my cap. And [Borzello] is one of the best guys to learn from."

The Cubs had named Darwin Barney as their unofficial emergency catcher, and manager Rick Renteria has said that if pressed, he would use Luis Valbuena.

But Valaika was in the bullpen on Monday, working with Borzello.

"I'm into it," Valaika said. "It can give me a chance to stick around, be another resource. I can go out there and catch between innings so [John Baker] and [Welington Castillo] don't have to."

What about the wagon?

"Now I can put some catcher's gear in there," he said. "We're loading it up."
 

CSF77

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Another one?

Patience promises to be a virtue for Baez


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TB@CHC: Baez ties it up with an RBI single
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CHICAGO -- The Cubs are hoping that Javier Baez finds a happy medium at the plate.

In his half-dozen big league games, Baez has struck out 12 times in 29 at-bats, but what's encouraging is that he's shown more patience at the plate.

The Cardinals' Matt Carpenter leads the National League in pitches per plate appearance, with 4.36, and the Cubs' Luis Valbuena is third, with 4.17. So far, Baez is averaging 4.24.

"It's a process," manager Rick Renteria said on Monday of Baez, who was promoted last Tuesday from Triple-A Iowa. "A young man with the kind of explosive bat he has, if he puts the barrel on the baseball, he's going to do some damage."

In his first at-bat against the Rays on Saturday, Baez took six straight pitches and was called out on strikes. Renteria said that Baez most likely was looking for the right pitch to hit, and just happened to take six in a row.

"When you're talking about a young man's development, you're talking about finding a happy medium," Renteria said. "He's doing some searching, too. He's getting into the box -- 'Maybe I can pull back, get a little better pitch to hit.' That's all part of the process, too."


Back to Alcantara:

lcantara working through growing pains


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TB@CHC: Alcantara lays out to rob Loney of a hit
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CHICAGO -- Javier Baez isn't the only Cubs rookie still adjusting to the big leagues. Arismendy Alcantara is going through some growing pains, too.

Alcantara went 9-for-23 in his first five games but entered Monday's series opener against the Brewers with seven hits in his last 39 at-bats.

"He's learning how big league pitchers are adjusting to him," manager Rick Renteria said. "I think they're attacking him in different ways. He's got the skill set to adjust.

"I'm not going to panic for him. He steps into the box feeling he's going to have good at-bats, which is what we want him to have. If his at-bats are solid, he'll have more positive results than not. He's learning. He doesn't seem to be overwhelmed. It's not like he's down.

"He goes in there every single time and tries to work a good at-bat and get on base or drive in a run and do what he can to help the club."

Alcantara already has a four-hit game under his belt, having gone 4-for-5 against the Reds on July 10 in his second big league game.
 

CSF77

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He wasn't an asset then either

At best Olt is a toss in in a deal. He is in the same boat as Vogelbach.

That said I'm expecting Olt, Soler, Szczur, Watkins, Beeler, Parker, Rosscup, Rusin, Straily, Vizcaino called in Sept. Arms are more important to keep the IP down for the main group. I'm expecting Szczur and Watkins looked into as role players on the bench next year. If they can hit major league pitching. I can't see them paying Valbuena his salory to back up Baez and Bryant next year. Not seeing that.

Olt at best to see if his work in AAA translates to the majors. If so I expect him involed with a trade this offseason. If not at best he sits on 1B worst cut.

I don't expect Vitters or Jackson promoted. I expect them to be cut off the 40 man and given the option to become minor league F/A.

There should be some house keeping happening this off-season.
 

CSF77

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What's funny?...few years back Szczur was a top 5 Cubs prospect. Now he is not on the top 20. They have come a far way.
 

chibears55

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At best Olt is a toss in in a deal. He is in the same boat as Vogelbach.

That said I'm expecting Olt, Soler, Szczur, Watkins, Beeler, Parker, Rosscup, Rusin, Straily, Vizcaino called in Sept. Arms are more important to keep the IP down for the main group. I'm expecting Szczur and Watkins looked into as role players on the bench next year. If they can hit major league pitching. I can't see them paying Valbuena his salory to back up Baez and Bryant next year. Not seeing that.

Olt at best to see if his work in AAA translates to the majors. If so I expect him involed with a trade this offseason. If not at best he sits on 1B worst cut.

I don't expect Vitters or Jackson promoted. I expect them to be cut off the 40 man and given the option to become minor league F/A.

There should be some house keeping happening this off-season.
If they dont plan on bringing bryant up til may, I wouldn't be surprise ( if he not traded ) if they start the season with olt at 3B.
Nothing to lose by giving him some early ABs and a chance to stay on the major league roster
 

beckdawg

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And where were Jackson and Vitters on that list too?

What I find a bit more interesting is that under the current regime we're seeing fewer high profile players struggle on their way up the chain at least with the higher profile guys. I don't have any real concrete evidence to support this but it seems like there doing a better job developmentally than the past regime. It could just be a matter of drafting higher/better players. I'm not sure.
 

CSF77

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What I find a bit more interesting is that under the current regime we're seeing fewer high profile players struggle on their way up the chain at least with the higher profile guys. I don't have any real concrete evidence to support this but it seems like there doing a better job developmentally than the past regime. It could just be a matter of drafting higher/better players. I'm not sure.

Think before it was on development. The players brought up were more high talent low baseball IQ types. Guys like Castro and Lake who have run out under 8% BB rates. That is something that Theo has stressed sense getting over is BB%. Even Baez and Alcantara had to improve it as they were from the previous management team.

What Hendry did well was draft pitchers later round that were hard buys. But he drafted easy signs in the first rounds. If you look at his draft history:

2000: Lou Montanez
2001: Mark Prior
2002: Bobby Brownlie, Luke Hagerty, Chadd Blasko, Matthew Clanton
2003: Ryan Harvey
2004: no first round pick
2005: Mark Pawelek
2006: Tyler Colvin
2007: Josh Vitters, Josh Donaldson (Traded wrong guy to the A's)
2008: Andrew Cashner. Ryan Flaherty (Let go via rule V by current admin (dumb))
2009: Brett Jackson
2010: Hayden Simpson (Bust of the year)
2011: Javier Baez

The best pick up I believe will be Josh Donaldson. Drafted as a catcher and converted to 3B by Beene.. reason why he is probable the best at this.
Cashner 2nd best pick up.
Baez I'm not sure how much input Hendry had in that draft. He was already fired and was just there to oversee it. We will see but he could end up a super star so it make the only first round pick from that era that had impact on this team.

I would give him a D for now. They had bad scouting, development and evaluating skills. That many busts in 2002 then the major f-up how 2007 ended up. 2008 was on this admin and Cashner is still injure prone. VS Rizzo he plays every day and puts up a OBA close to .400. Cubs won that trade.
 

beckdawg

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Not to rehash the Alcantara thing but I thought this was funny reading bleacher nation

The Cubs have been pleased with Arismendy Alcantara’s defense in center field so far (ESPN), and I’d have to say that’s probably especially true given how little experience he has out there. My eyes tell me he’s been covering quite a bit of ground, has a good glove out there, and gets a pretty good read off the bat. His arm has been spotty, which is something you’d expect for a converted infielder, though I wonder if there’s also a strength issue that might take some offseason conditioning. It’s extremely early – just 12 games in center field – but, so far, UZR/150 thinks Alcantara is an elite center fielder, with a projected 32.6 runs saved above average in center (that would translate to more than 3 wins(!) over a season from Alcantara’s glove, alone). Again: crazy small sample, but that 32.6 would be the best defensive center fielder in baseball, and second best defensive player overall in baseball. At second base, he was at 33.9. In other words, he’s been unbelievable defensively so far.

Looks like I'm not the only one using unreliable data.
 

TL1961

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I just defended AA and said give him time, and don't evaluate him negatively by taking into account games played as he learns a new position and draw the conclusion that is as good as he gets.

But in the other end, any stat that determines he is the best defensive player isn't worth a damn. That's the problem with some stats and whoever is calculating this stuff.

He misplayed a ball last night going to the wall (not an error, but missed a ball others could have caught). He made a terrible throw home. It doesn't make me think he can't become really good in CF. He covered a lot of ground getting to that ball, and he has little to no experience with the Wrigley brick wall at this point.

But what rating system on what planet determines he is at the very top defensively right now? Insane.

Maybe at some point. He has speed and has made some really good plays. But right now? No.
 
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