Cubs to Sign Eloy Jimenez

[KBisBack!]

A little reality into the world of international FA spending. This article is a couple years old now, but it lists the players who received the top 20 biggest international FA bonuses of all time. Well All Time up till early 2011.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html


Most of the players are or got stuck in the low minors or were total busts.

A few were mediocre major league players like Pena, Tsao and Kim.

A couple are still legitimate prospects in Sano and Sanchez.

ONE become an legitimate great, Hall of Fame player in Miguel Cabrera.

Odds appear to be even lower than the top 100 prospect lottery tickets.*



* = 100% baseball related content

 

[waldo7239117]

Watch Cubs trade Garza just for INT cap

How pissed would fans be then???

They won't, don't worrt. The Cubs manly traded Feldman for INT money, but did get to RP arms who have a lot of potential.

 

[dabynsky]

A little reality into the world of international FA spending. This article is a couple years old now, but it lists the players who received the top 20 biggest international FA bonuses of all time. Well All Time up till early 2011.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html


Most of the players are or got stuck in the low minors or were total busts.

A few were mediocre major league players like Pena, Tsao and Kim.

A couple are still legitimate prospects in Sano and Sanchez.

ONE become an legitimate great, Hall of Fame player in Miguel Cabrera.

Odds appear to be even lower than the top 100 prospect lottery tickets.*



* = 100% baseball related content

And this would be a fascinating discussion to have because there has been a clear shift in philosophy in attacking international amateur signings the past two years in going after the big bonus babies as opposed to spreading out bonuses over lots of players. Why have they made this shift? I have a few theories as to why this has happened, but this is different than what the Cubs have done except for the past three seasons and what Theo Epstein did in Boston during virtually his entire run in Boston.

 

[KBisBack!]

Why have they made this shift?.

I would say because of the new rules limiting amateur spending.

 

[dabynsky]

I would say because of the new rules limiting amateur spending.

But why would they spend the limited amount on the highest bonuses when that limits the number of prospects you can sign? I mean you are correct that the biggest bonuses have a checkered history at best. Plenty of solid to great players were signed for under 100K and under 50K. So why would they focus on just acquiring a few big bonus types?

 

[KBisBack!]

So why would they focus on just acquiring a few big bonus types?

There would be far too much research to do, but my guess would be that even with the checkered history and low odds of even the highest bonus signings making an impact at the major league level, I would say that the low dollar, under 100k and under 50k signings have an even lower success rate. Everyone remembers the few players paid low bonuses that made a splash. Few remember the thousands that no one ended up hearing about at the major league level.

Quality over quantity??

 

[dabynsky]

There would be far too much research to do, but my guess would be that even with the checkered history and low odds of even the highest bonus signings making an impact at the major league level, I would say that the low dollar, under 100k and under 50k signings have an even lower success rate. Everyone remembers the few players paid low bonuses that made a splash. Few remember the thousands that no one ended up hearing about at the major league level.

Quality over quantity??

Perhaps, I would be interested to see if there was any research about success rates based on relative bonus given. Because I have seen quite a few places where people have stated that quantity over quality approach is best in Latin America.

I do find this approach dovetails with the draft that was heavily focused on college players as well. Focus on getting a few guys with probably the highest ceilings in Latin America and in the draft going after mostly guys that should be able to move quickly through the system.

 

[KBisBack!]

Perhaps, I would be interested to see if there was any research about success rates based on relative bonus given. Because I have seen quite a few places where people have stated that quantity over quality approach is best in Latin America.

I do find this approach dovetails with the draft that was heavily focused on college players as well. Focus on getting a few guys with probably the highest ceilings in Latin America and in the draft going after mostly guys that should be able to move quickly through the system.

Well my opinion is that the draft is going to be different going forward than it was in the past. I think already in the second season of the new format you have seen a shift in draft philosophy. I think going forward, in the first ten rounds you will see a couple players drafted with high ceilings by each team. The rest of the first ten rounds will be used to draft college seniors that can be signed for very little and do not take up the cap room. I've stated that strategy even before this years draft in response to what the Cubs could have done last year. Then starting again after round 10 teams will start to take fliers on high upside players that you might be able to sign using a smaller portion of your cap space as you might be able to entice players to skip college or their senior years for hundreds of thousands of dollars instead of millions if they were drafted in the early rounds or end up wasting cap space being unable to sign the player.

 

[dabynsky]

Well my opinion is that the draft is going to be different going forward than it was in the past. I think already in the second season of the new format you have seen a shift in draft philosophy. I think going forward, in the first ten rounds you will see a couple players drafted with high ceilings by each team. The rest of the first ten rounds will be used to draft college seniors that can be signed for very little and do not take up the cap room. I've stated that strategy even before this years draft in response to what the Cubs could have done last year. Then starting again after round 10 teams will start to take fliers on high upside players that you might be able to sign using a smaller portion of your cap space as you might be able to entice players to skip college or their senior years for hundreds of thousands of dollars instead of millions if they were drafted in the early rounds or end up wasting cap space being unable to sign the player.

Oh there is no doubt that the draft is going to be different from prior to the new CBA to now, but last year the Cubs took a bunch of high school players early on with high ceilings like you suggested. This draft though a number of players were college players that you would be hard to argue were the highest ceilings (Rob Zastryzny prime example of this). That isn't to say that the guys they took don't have upside, but they bypassed a bunch of high schooler's with a higher peak. Instead they took guys that should be able to move quicker through the system, if they make it.

 

[KBisBack!]

but last year the Cubs took a bunch of high school players early on with high ceilings like you suggested.

But had to pass on the best player in the draft in order to do so.

Instead they took guys that should be able to move quicker through the system, if they make it.

And tried to save cap space in the meantime, leaving money to over-slot players after the 10th round.

It is pretty similar to the strategy I said the Cubs should have applied last year in taking Appel instead of Almora that people lined up to say how stupid it was.

Unfortunately that seems to be causing an issue with signing the #2 overall pick, but that is a different thread so I will stop right there.

 

[chibears55]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/...for-the-cubs-international-spending-approach/

 

[Parade_Rain]

Interesting concept, if that's true. I hope I'm still alive when all this "talent" they are acquiring makes it to MLB.

 

[chibears55]

Interesting concept, if that's true. I hope I'm still alive when all this "talent" they are acquiring makes it to MLB.

even though we would like to see better acquisitions made for the major league club, cant really complain about them doing their best in improving the future with the international signings and armature drafts. have to think if the previous regimes from owners on down, paid a little more attention in that area they may be a bit better off today.

 

[Parade_Rain]

even though we would like to see better acquisitions made for the major league club, cant really complain about them doing their best in improving the future with the international signings and armature drafts. have to think if the previous regimes from owners on down, paid a little more attention in that area they may be a bit better off today.

Agreed. There were a lot of issues I had with the previous ownership and management team but it's just a bit aggravating waiting for the talent convention to show up at Wrigley. Even then there is no guarantee that there is a winner. Looking at who the Red Sox had before Epstein and after he left I have no reason to believe his methods are above scrutiny. At least there seems to be a more coherent plan throughout the organization.

 

[Flacco4Prez]

A little reality into the world of international FA spending. This article is a couple years old now, but it lists the players who received the top 20 biggest international FA bonuses of all time. Well All Time up till early 2011.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html


Most of the players are or got stuck in the low minors or were total busts.

A few were mediocre major league players like Pena, Tsao and Kim.

A couple are still legitimate prospects in Sano and Sanchez.

ONE become an legitimate great, Hall of Fame player in Miguel Cabrera.

Odds appear to be even lower than the top 100 prospect lottery tickets.*



* = 100% baseball related content

The odds are going to be worse than a top 100 prospect. Top 100 prospects are generally out of high school or college and in the 18-23 age group give or take a year. These international players are about 16. Some of them wouldn't even be able to drive a car to their games. There is a much higher chance that a 16 year old flames out than a 20 year old. At least the top 100 prospects have proven themselves in their respectable leagues. These international guys haven't even played a game in the States.

 

[KBisBack!]

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/...for-the-cubs-international-spending-approach/

I am just so thankful that the Cubs have a front office that is smart enough to figure out the difficult logic behind, if you like players this year and don't like any of the players next year, sign as many as you can this year and don't worry about penalties for next year since you already know you probably won't be signing any of them anyway.

Hopefully the will keep this little secret to themselves so that none of the other teams will catch onto it.

As for the trading international money for prospects next year. Isn't that already what Houston did THIS year??

And as you can see, the price in bonus money is step. Houston gave up their second and third spots for a mid level at best prospect who is struggling at AA.

Nothing in that article to get excited about at all.

 

[SilenceS]

Agreed. There were a lot of issues I had with the previous ownership and management team but it's just a bit aggravating waiting for the talent convention to show up at Wrigley. Even then there is no guarantee that there is a winner. Looking at who the Red Sox had before Epstein and after he left I have no reason to believe his methods are above scrutiny. At least there seems to be a more coherent plan throughout the organization.

Eh, different times then. Hendry had half the front office and was not allowed to spend much money in the draft. Hence, the Hayden Simpson type picks. The Cubs were usually like bottom 5 in spending in the draft. That isn't a management problem. That's an ownership problem. They wanted all their money to go to the big league club to make them winners so the sale would be better. It is also why a lot of contracts were back loaded. Theo has never done what he is doing right now. He has never rebuilt a franchise. He walked into a cushy position in Boston and made some questionable moves. All Gm's do, but that's why I get tired of hearing Theo is doing it right. With the CBA, no one knows if what he is doing is right. You are hoping he is doing right, but until these prospects make it. Its just a whole lot of speculation.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Eh, different times then. Hendry had half the front office and was not allowed to spend much money in the draft. Hence, the Hayden Simpson type picks. The Cubs were usually like bottom 5 in spending in the draft. That isn't a management problem. That's an ownership problem. They wanted all their money to go to the big league club to make them winners so the sale would be better. It is also why a lot of contracts were back loaded.

No kidding. That's why I included the words "previous ownership" and management team" in my post. The ownership was in it for the sell and the management signed the likes of Bradley.

Theo has never done what he is doing right now. He has never rebuilt a franchise. He walked into a cushy position in Boston and made some questionable moves. All Gm's do, but that's why I get tired of hearing Theo is doing it right. With the CBA, no one knows if what he is doing is right. You are hoping he is doing right, but until these prospects make it. Its just a whole lot of speculation.

For whatever reason your post comes off as being argumentative to mine. Perhaps I'm reading it wrong. I suggested that I have no reason to believe his methods are above scrutiny for the very reason that he hasn't built a team from the ground up.

 

[patg006]

Cubs rumored to have signed young Taiwanese SP Jenho Tseng. Good fastball, plus curve and slider. Needs work on change. 18 years old. Figure he's got time.

I'm curious; Shohei Otani, an 18 year old Japanese kid who can throw 100 mph fastball; but hes not on the international list. He signed with Nippon Ham Fighters; how soon is he eligible to be signed? Does he have to play x(dont know exact amount, 6?) years in Japan like Darvish?

 

[dabynsky]

Cubs rumored to have signed young Taiwanese SP Jenho Tseng. Good fastball, plus curve and slider. Needs work on change. 18 years old. Figure he's got time.

I'm curious; Shohei Otani, an 18 year old Japanese kid who can throw 100 mph fastball; but hes not on the international list. He signed with Nippon Ham Fighters; how soon is he eligible to be signed? Does he have to play x(dont know exact amount, 6?) years in Japan like Darvish?

Japan works differently than the rest because NPB and MLB have an agreement which basically means that MLB won't go poach Japnese kids from the NPB. Otani would have been subject to the same rules as other international amateur last year or this year, but he decided to sign with Nippon Ham as you mentioned after facing tremendous social pressure to stay in Japan. He doesn't have to play a set number of years to be posted as far as I know, but I believe it is 9 years before players reaching free agency in NPB and thus free to sign with any team he wishes. However, given the control the team has it probably will be five or six years before he is posted. Interestingly the team he was drafted and signed with is a team that has a policy to grant player's request for posting so perhaps he will make it over sooner than later.

I like going after Jenho Tseng a lot. I believe he pitched a little in the WBC this past year, but I prefer going after older arms in IFA that depend a little less on how they grow between 16-20 to determine what they will be. I also kind of like the Cubs don't give a **** attitude about the budget MLB assigned. Not sure if the strategy is right when that means they will be severely handcuffed next year, but it is interesting.