Cubs trade value Rankings:

[brett05]

And since when did The cubs become cash strapped? Someone is mismanaging them if they are

 

[dabynsky]

His offense has nothing to do with what position he will play

I was specifically referring to defense. Look at Furcals first season in the big leagues very similar to what Castro is doing now. He also always had a strong arm and was known for being occasionaly erractic yet he is still a big league SS. The Cubs have no plans to move him from SS and there is no reason too.

​

 

[dabynsky]

And since when did The cubs become cash strapped? Someone is mismanaging them if they are

You really don't see how a player putting up the numbers Castro is before even hitting arbitration doesn't increase his value to the Cubs or any other team? Just because they have some money to spe3nd doesn't mean it isn't to their advantage to get near all-star level production from a guy making close to league minimum.

 

[dabynsky]

I don't blame you for falling in love with potential. Based on your logic Beckham was a top 5 player in the game value wise. I'd still rather gave Adrian Gonzalez

You might have a point if Gordon Beckham was a career at .307. Beckham has never put a season together that was as good as what Castro has done this year and the past year. This is what is unique about Castro and why his value should be very high. Is that there is potential for improvement (defensively and offensively), he is dirt cheap, and he is producing right now. Amongst all SS he is 2nd in batting average, 6th in OBP, and 5th in SLG. That isn't potential. That is production from a 21 year old.

 

[brett05]

That is weak SS numbers. And quite awful defender at a position that is judged 80% on defense

You'll see. Castro won't be a future SS. Of the best SS the game has ever seen can be moved, a Castro can and will be moved.

 

[brett05]

I never said price doesn't matter. Just doesn't matter as much as you believe

 

[dabynsky]

That is weak SS numbers. And quite awful defender at a position that is judged 80% on defense

You'll see. Castro won't be a future SS. Of the best SS the game has ever seen can be moved, a Castro can and will be moved.

It would be nice to have an actual discussion about this but I've given statistics and examples to support my case. The evidence I've gotten back is your vast baseball knoweldge and vast knoweldge of your friends. I guess we will get to see who is right in the end.

 

[brett05]

Oh I can totally be wrong. But odds are I am not. Most prospects fizzle

 

[dabynsky]

Oh I can totally be wrong. But odds are I am not. Most prospects fizzle

You are right most prospects don't reach their potential, but if I have to bet on a prospect reaching his potential I think a 21 year old that is having a better season after a very strong rookie season is the one I am going to put my money on.

 

[Jntg4]

Oh I can totally be wrong. But odds are I am not. Most prospects fizzle

He's not a prospect though... he's a second-year player batting .315...

 

[poodski]

Poodski, I don't get it

It seems that you believe potential and ability to control a player outranks actual production

I've asked Cub fans which happen to be knowledgable baseball fans and they said they might not put Castro in the top 100 and listed several SS they would rather have

I don't blame you for falling in love with potential. Based on your logic Beckham was a top 5 player in the game value wise. I'd still rather gave Adrian Gonzalez

Well Beckham was never ranked as high as Castro as a prospect (Beckham topped out at 20, Castro at 16), nor did he ever do anything in the majors. So I am not sure how they are really comparable, but when you thought Beckham was going to be the tits, you would have traded him for one year of A-Gon? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Also FG ranked Beckham as an honerable mention back in 2009 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2009-mlb-trade-value-recap/

 

[poodski]

I never said price doesn't matter. Just doesn't matter as much as you believe

When you are talking value from a trade it absolutely means as much as I believe.

Two similar players one making 100 million over the next 5 years and one making 10 million over the next 5 years are going to bring back COMPLETELY different packages.

If these are 4 win players you won't get much for the first one but a ton for the second one.

 

[brett05]

So your definition of value is who would bring back the most in a trade? I just want to be sure before I comment.

Also I apologize if I am flaming, I do not mean to at all. It's really not my style. Aggressive yes, flaming, hopefully never.

 

[poodski]

So your definition of value is who would bring back the most in a trade? I just want to be sure before I comment.

Correct. That's the point of this article/discussion.

Also I apologize if I am flaming, I do not mean to at all. It's really not my style. Aggressive yes, flaming, hopefully never.

You are fine. You are being civil, and not calling people morons or idiots like some White Sox posters.

 

[dabynsky]

So your definition of value is who would bring back the most in a trade? I just want to be sure before I comment.

Also I apologize if I am flaming, I do not mean to at all. It's really not my style. Aggressive yes, flaming, hopefully never.

There has to be a joke in there... :tongue:

 

[brett05]

Without looking at rosters, I am going to try and come up with guys that would garner more in a trade then Starlin Castro:

(Please pardon my spellings)
NYY – Cano, CC, ARod
BOS – Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Beckett, Lester, Pedroia, Youkliss
TOR – Bautista, Drabek
BAL – Weitters
TB – Longoria, Price, Hellickson
CHI – (not going to comment to avoid bias)
DET – Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Cabrera
MIN – Mauer, Liriano
CLE – Santana
KC – Moustaskas, Soria
LAA – Weaver
SEA – Hernandez, possible Ichiro
OAK – Gio, (gosh I can’t believe I can’t name their other studs on the staff. *sigh*)
TEX – Perez, Kinsler, (the closer…uhmm…seriously)
LAD – Kemp, Krenshaw
COL – Tulo, Ubaldo, Gonzales (it’s like a trend with this last name)
SD – Hudson, Bell
SF – Cain, Lincecum, Wilson
PIT – McCutchen
HOU – Rodriguez
CIN – Votto, Chapman
MILW – Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, Grienke
STL – Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright
CHI – Marmol, Garza
NYM – Reyes, Wright
PHI – Howard, Lee, Hammels, Oswalt, (dang it…former TOR pitcher…Cy Young ….dang it)
FLA – Hanley, Johnson
ATL – Heyward, Lowe, Hudson (another SP blank)
WAS – Strasburg

All of these guys would require more than just Castro in a trade.

I think the value of a young, light hitting, poorly fielding SS isn’t as valuable as you have made him out to be. He might have the most upside from where he is now and that would possible put him in the top 10-15 guys, but I feel all the guys listed above would go for more than Castro straight up.

 

[Jntg4]

Without looking at rosters, I am going to try and come up with guys that would garner more in a trade then Starlin Castro:

(Please pardon my spellings)
NYY – Cano, CC, ARod
BOS – Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Beckett, Lester, Pedroia, Youkliss
TOR – Bautista, Drabek
BAL – Weitters
TB – Longoria, Price, Hellickson
CHI – (not going to comment to avoid bias)
DET – Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Cabrera
MIN – Mauer, Liriano
CLE – Santana
KC – Moustaskas, Soria
LAA – Weaver
SEA – Hernandez, possible Ichiro
OAK – Gio, (gosh I can’t believe I can’t name their other studs on the staff. *sigh*)
TEX – Perez, Kinsler, (the closer…uhmm…seriously)
LAD – Kemp, Krenshaw
COL – Tulo, Ubaldo, Gonzales (it’s like a trend with this last name)
SD – Hudson, Bell
SF – Cain, Lincecum, Wilson
PIT – McCutchen
HOU – Rodriguez
CIN – Votto, Chapman
MILW – Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, Grienke
STL – Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright
CHI – Marmol, Garza
NYM – Reyes, Wright
PHI – Howard, Lee, Hammels, Oswalt, (dang it…former TOR pitcher…Cy Young ….dang it)
FLA – Hanley, Johnson
ATL – Heyward, Lowe, Hudson (another SP blank)
WAS – Strasburg

All of these guys would require more than just Castro in a trade.

I think the value of a young, light hitting, poorly fielding SS isn’t as valuable as you have made him out to be. He might have the most upside from where he is now and that would possible put him in the top 10-15 guys, but I feel all the guys listed above would go for more than Castro straight up.

I think there is a point you might be missing somewhere... because I don't know if that's what he meant...

 

[dabynsky]

That is weak SS numbers. And quite awful defender at a position that is judged 80% on defense

You'll see. Castro won't be a future SS. Of the best SS the game has ever seen can be moved, a Castro can and will be moved.

Yet you consistently put Hanley Ramirez into the conversation as a SS that is better than Castro even though his defense is worse. His range is terrible and he makes a ton of errors. In fact his fielding percentage is lower than Castro's right now despite the fact that he doesn't even get to all the balls that Castro does. If fielding is 80% of the value of a SS than Ramirez isn't better than Castro.

Without looking at rosters, I am going to try and come up with guys that would garner more in a trade then Starlin Castro:

(Please pardon my spellings)
NYY – Cano, CC, ARod
BOS – Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Beckett, Lester, Pedroia, Youkliss
TOR – Bautista, Drabek
BAL – Weitters
TB – Longoria, Price, Hellickson
CHI – (not going to comment to avoid bias)
DET – Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Cabrera
MIN – Mauer, Liriano
CLE – Santana
KC – Moustaskas, Soria
LAA – Weaver
SEA – Hernandez, possible Ichiro
OAK – Gio, (gosh I can’t believe I can’t name their other studs on the staff. *sigh*)
TEX – Perez, Kinsler, (the closer…uhmm…seriously)
LAD – Kemp, Krenshaw
COL – Tulo, Ubaldo, Gonzales (it’s like a trend with this last name)
SD – Hudson, Bell
SF – Cain, Lincecum, Wilson
PIT – McCutchen
HOU – Rodriguez
CIN – Votto, Chapman
MILW – Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, Grienke
STL – Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright
CHI – Marmol, Garza
NYM – Reyes, Wright
PHI – Howard, Lee, Hammels, Oswalt, (dang it…former TOR pitcher…Cy Young ….dang it)
FLA – Hanley, Johnson
ATL – Heyward, Lowe, Hudson (another SP blank)
WAS – Strasburg

All of these guys would require more than just Castro in a trade.

I think the value of a young, light hitting, poorly fielding SS isn’t as valuable as you have made him out to be. He might have the most upside from where he is now and that would possible put him in the top 10-15 guys, but I feel all the guys listed above would go for more than Castro straight up.

I would love to spend the time to break down more of this list, but unforunately I am in the middle of making lunch. I do want to point how inconsistent your position has been throughout this discussion. You have been hammering the point that most prospects fail and that production trumps potential, and yet you have a guy that has thrown 68 IP and is just now throwing for the first since having TJS. If production trumps potential than the Nationals ought to be jumping at the chance to trade a guy with less than 70 innings thrown and coming off an injury for a guy that has .307 in over 200 games.

 

[poodski]

Since you took the time to do this I will break it down.

Without looking at rosters, I am going to try and come up with guys that would garner more in a trade then Starlin Castro:

(Please pardon my spellings)

NYY – Cano, CC, ARod

No way to these three. Cano is a possibility, but his contract gets real big real fast, and it only goes through 2013. I would not trade him for Cano.

CC can opt out after this year and makes about a bajillion dollars so no. And A-Rod is the second worst contract in baseball. Not a chance would he bring as much back infact he probably has the second least trade value of anyone in baseball.

BOS – Gonzalez, Ellsbury, Beckett, Lester, Pedroia, Youkliss

A-Gon just signed a huge contract that he is barely worth so no way. Youk is only under team control for another two years. Beckett makes too much and wasn't good at all last year. Easily a pass on those three.

Lester is a definite. Ellsbury is a maybe too injury prone for me. Pedroia probably as well.

TOR – Bautista, Drabek

Bautista is an interesting one. Depends on how good you think he is. If he is as good as this year or last year I probably would, if not then well you just got hosed Tommy.

Drabek has done nothing in the majors at all. In fact has been quite terrible.

BAL – Weitters

Maybe but is just now showing he can play and already has more service time than Castro.

TB – Longoria, Price, Hellickson

Probably yes to all three. Longoria has the most value of anyone in baseball IMO.

DET – Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Cabrera

Cabrera and Verlander are each making at least 20 million a year going forward. Castro is making 400K. Are these two really 50 times better than Castro?

Porcello has proved to be nothing but an average pitcher. Castro is better than him straight up not even including time left on team control.

Scherzer is a maybe, but he only has 3 years left apposed to Castros 5.

MIN – Mauer, Liriano

Not a chance on either. Liriano is awful now and only one year left. Mauer is now injury prone and makes a buttload. Easy pass.

CLE – Santana

Without looking too closely I agree.

KC – Moustaskas, Soria

Moose probably. Soria not a chance. Hosmer I would trade him for though.

LAA – Weaver

Nope one year left.

SEA – Hernandez, possible Ichiro

Felix I would think hard about. Really hard.

Ichiro no way, other than the money he might bring in merchandise, and my undying love for him.

I probably would for Ackley or Pineda though.

OAK – Gio, (gosh I can’t believe I can’t name their other studs on the staff. *sigh*)

Not a fan of Gio but I would for Cahill.

TEX – Perez, Kinsler, (the closer…uhmm…seriously)

Who is Perez? No to Kinsler and definitely no to Feliz (unless he could start) I am not trading a 21 year old SS for a closer.

LAD – Kemp, Krenshaw

Kemp no only one year left.

I probably would for Kershaw.

COL – Tulo, Ubaldo, Gonzales (it’s like a trend with this last name)

No to Tulo way to expensive and WAYY too long a contract. Ubaldo is a possibility due to his great contract. CarGo is way too pricey.

SD – Hudson, Bell

No to Bell because A) closer and B) FA in 3 months. Why would you trade a 5 years of a SS entering his prime for a closer for three months?

Hudson no thanks. 2 years left and old.

SF – Cain, Lincecum, Wilson

No, Yes, No. Contract too short, and a closer.

PIT – McCutchen

Yep. If Tabata can stay healthy add him here as well.

HOU – Rodriguez

Meh

CIN – Votto, Chapman

Yes and God no. he can't even throw a strike.

MILW – Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, Grienke

Braun probably. Though his contract is quite big and scary. I probably would for Weeks.

Fielder and Greinke/Marcum are FA in 3 months and 1 year 3 months so no.

STL – Pujols, Carpenter, Wainwright

Pujols has a broken arm and is a FA in 3 months so not a chance.

Wainwright is coming of TJS so I will pass.

Carpenter has one year left.

CHI – Marmol, Garza

See article.

NYM – Reyes, Wright

Reyes is a FA in 3 months. Wright hasn't been good for a while. Castro is better than Wright now probably.

PHI – Howard, Lee, Hammels, Oswalt, (dang it…former TOR pitcher…Cy Young ….dang it)

Howard is the least valuable player in baseball. It's the worst contract in all of baseball. I wouldn't trade Soriano for him.

Lee makes way too much. Hamels and Oswalt are FA after next year actually Oswalt can opt out at the end of this year.

Halladay I would take.

FLA – Hanley, Johnson

Definitely no to Hanley. Really struggled this year and makes a lot.

Johnson is a maybe, but he is gone after 2013.

Mike Stanton I would consider though.

ATL – Heyward, Lowe, Hudson (another SP blank)

Heyward probably. Lowe and Hudson no way. Too old make too much too short a contract.

Beachy I might, and Hanson I would.

WAS – Strasburg

That's a tough one. Without TJS in a heartbeat. Coming off of it... I just don't know.

I would trade for Harper though.

All of these guys would require more than just Castro in a trade.

I think the value of a young, light hitting, poorly fielding SS isn’t as valuable as you have made him out to be. He might have the most upside from where he is now and that would possible put him in the top 10-15 guys, but I feel all the guys listed above would go for more than Castro straight up.

Most of these players are better than Castro, but they would not take more to acquire than Castro. Team control and contract are really something you aren't looking hard enough at.

He isn't really light hitting either. He has the 6th highest wOBA of all SS this year, and his fielding.... well its just the errors that are the problem and Hanley and Furcal were this way as well. It will come around he has great range. He is already a 3.5-4 win player at the age of 21. Those types of players are much more valuable than a lot of players you have mentioned.

 

[brett05]

DET – Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Cabrera
Cabrera and Verlander are each making at least 20 million a year going forward. Castro is making 400K. Are these two really 50 times better than Castro?

It doesn’t matter how many times someone is paid more than someone else as much is if they play better. You have a team of 400K guys that play half as good as my guys getting paid $10 million each. You lose more than you will win and that is all that matters in value, right?

SD – Hudson, Bell
No to Bell because A) closer and B) FA in 3 months. Why would you trade a 5 years of a SS entering his prime for a closer for three months?

You under value a dominant closer. SS keep you in games, closers preserve or lose games. The best are super rare.
And just choose this one as an example. But let’s take Albert. The Cards call and say we want Castro and Jackson and you can have Pujols. After the near heart attack Jim Hendry has, he tells the Cards we need 48 hours to negotiate a long term deal with Albert. As long as Albert signs, the Cubs do the happy dance for a long, long time on this trade. They got their man and didn’t have to worry about free agency.

Most of these players are better than Castro, but they would not take more to acquire than Castro. Team control and contract are really something you aren't looking hard enough at.

He isn't really light hitting either. He has the 6th highest wOBA of all SS this year,

With the weakness of SS, it’s like being the tallest midget of sorts.

I think I see the issue. You are looking at value per dollars, not value in whose better or would be traded from whom for whom.
It’s totally ok that you love Castro. I love George Brett. Wouldn’t trade him away for anyone, but Mike Schmidt was miles better then George.

With maybe the exception being Tulo, Every 1st, and 2nd starting pitcher in baseball is more valuable then every SS in the game today.

If you take out your bias toward Castro, you would see the list makes sense. I took it from the viewpoint of a GM. And Without much argument, there isn’t a GM that would take Castro straight up for these players.