Cubs vs Reds IST thread

[Diehardfan]

With the exception of the 5th slot, which has been a disaster for most of the season, the other 4 starters and the bullpen held this team together for a quite awhile. They won a whole lot of low scoring and extra inning games before the lineup got it together. I won't argue that they are not short on starters...they clearly are, but given the way the Cubs scored runs early on, they are fortunate that the pitching held it together as long as they did.

 

[chibears55]

This gets into why they need a upgrade to the #3. 2nd half Hammel has looked like bottom of the rotation vs first half he looked like a 2.

This is going to be the biggest issue this year and going into next.

I believe they will end up trading vs spending on FA. They have to remove excess depth anyways.

I think they might go both route FA and trade to get pitchers. .

Haren definitely gone and i believe they will trade Hammel

I think they will sign a TOR starter and trade for another

Hendricks will compete in ST for the 5th rotation spot..

That my thought process going into the offseason for the rotation. ..

Arrieta
Lester
TOR FA
Trade
Hendricks /others

 

[CSF77]

What I would like to see:

Q offer to Fowler.

Then the question is move Baez to 3B or 2B. If they move him to 3B it opens up 2B for LaStella. This opens up him as a 2 hitter.

If Baez is a 2B then they could sign Jackson to a deal and use Soler in a trade.

I would love to see Theo get aggressive and trade for Sonny Grey. Use Hendricks, Soler and Castro. Bring back a young player back with Grey.

This would push Lester into the#3 starter and Hammel into the 4. At that point all they have to figure out is a #5.

Line up would be:
Fowler
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Jackson
Montero
Baez
Pitcher
Russell

Pretty much what we are seeing right now but they added a 1 or a 2. Honestly him and Arreta are the 2 hottest arms out there right now

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What I would like to see:

Q offer to Fowler.

Then the question is move Baez to 3B or 2B. If they move him to 3B it opens up 2B for LaStella. This opens up him as a 2 hitter.

If Baez is a 2B then they could sign Jackson to a deal and use Soler in a trade.

I would love to see Theo get aggressive and trade for Sonny Grey. Use Hendricks, Soler and Castro. Bring back a young player back with Grey.

This would push Lester into the#3 starter and Hammel into the 4. At that point all they have to figure out is a #5.

Line up would be:
Fowler
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Jackson
Montero
Baez
Pitcher
Russell

Pretty much what we are seeing right now but they added a 1 or a 2. Honestly him and Arreta are the 2 hottest arms out there right now

You've said some similar things a couple of times. I love going after Gray but I think Carlos Carrasco or Tyson Ross would be more likely. They also have to pursue one of the TOR starters. The rotations needs 2 pitchers. Also how do you figure that they keep Fowler? There seems to be very little chance of that.

 

[CSF77]

You've said some similar things a couple of times. I love going after Gray but I think Carlos Carrasco or Tyson Ross would be more likely. They also have to pursue one of the TOR starters. The rotations needs 2 pitchers. Also how do you figure that they keep Fowler? There seems to be very little chance of that.

I believe a team would have to offer him a 3 year deal for him to bother


If you are going to add a starter you need an upgrade to Hammel. Not so sure if Ross will be that good.

 

[PickSix]

What I would like to see:

Q offer to Fowler.

Then the question is move Baez to 3B or 2B. If they move him to 3B it opens up 2B for LaStella. This opens up him as a 2 hitter.

If Baez is a 2B then they could sign Jackson to a deal and use Soler in a trade.

I would love to see Theo get aggressive and trade for Sonny Grey. Use Hendricks, Soler and Castro. Bring back a young player back with Grey.

This would push Lester into the#3 starter and Hammel into the 4. At that point all they have to figure out is a #5.

Line up would be:
Fowler
Schwarber
Bryant
Rizzo
Jackson
Montero
Baez
Pitcher
Russell

Pretty much what we are seeing right now but they added a 1 or a 2. Honestly him and Arreta are the 2 hottest arms out there right now

This offense is night and day different without Soler. I'd keep him. The HR's will come.
I doubt anyone finds value in trading for Castro. If it takes throwing Baez into a package deal for a really good pitcher, go for it. I don't think he ever overcomes his strikeout issues. I'd survive with Castro / LaStella / Coghlan until Torres is ready.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

This offense is night and day different without Soler. I'd keep him. The HR's will come.
I doubt anyone finds value in trading for Castro. If it takes throwing Baez into a package deal for a really good pitcher, go for it. I don't think he ever overcomes his strikeout issues. I'd survive with Castro / LaStella / Coghlan until Torres is ready.

Castro gets you nothing in trade on his own. He has to be part of a package with money going back. I can't imagine they would keep him at this point. Assuming they are going to trade for a pitcher, and I am assuming that they will in addition to signing one, the question is which one of Soler or Baez do you trade? Make no mistake those are your key pieces for a deal. Soler has a higher floor but a lower ceiling, Baez has a lower floor but arguably a much higher ceiling. My gut tells me it will be Soler because the promise and temptation of Baez are just too great. As far as Baez not overcoming his strikeout issues he lowered his K rate in AAA from 30% in 2014 to 25% in 2015 unfortunately his walk rate dropped. In MLB you will need him to have a K rate no higher than 25% and the ability to raise his walk rate to somewhere around 12%. You would expect HR in the 30-40 range. I think those are achievable goals for him and as a hitter that would make him something akin to a Giancarlo Stanton lite. Stanton in his best year of 2014 put up 27% and 15% respectively with 37 HR. So again do you go safe and keep Soler who is likely a solid MLB player for year with average power and a possible injury risk or do you go for the guy who could be much, much better than that but could also bust out. This is why Theo Epstein makes the big (soon to be bigger) bucks. Depending on your trade partner Soler likely has higher value. I would not want to have to make that call.

 

[PickSix]

Castro gets you nothing in trade on his own. He has to be part of a package with money going back. I can't imagine they would keep him at this point. Assuming they are going to trade for a pitcher, and I am assuming that they will in addition to signing one, the question is which one of Soler or Baez do you trade? Make no mistake those are your key pieces for a deal. Soler has a higher floor but a lower ceiling, Baez has a lower floor but arguably a much higher ceiling. My gut tells me it will be Soler because the promise and temptation of Baez are just too great. As far as Baez not overcoming his strikeout issues he lowered his K rate in AAA from 30% in 2014 to 25% in 2015 unfortunately his walk rate dropped. In MLB you will need him to have a K rate no higher than 25% and the ability to raise his walk rate to somewhere around 12%. You would expect HR in the 30-40 range. I think those are achievable goals for him and as a hitter that would make him something akin to a Giancarlo Stanton lite. Stanton in his best year of 2014 put up 27% and 15% respectively with 37 HR. So again do you go safe and keep Soler who is likely a solid MLB player for year with average power and a possible injury risk or do you go for the guy who could be much, much better than that but could also bust out. This is why Theo Epstein makes the big (soon to be bigger) bucks. Depending on your trade partner Soler likely has higher value. I would not want to have to make that call.

That is good stuff. Thanks. Is there a third option of just keeping both? Or will one likely be out the door due to not having an owner with endless pockets like some clubs?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That is good stuff. Thanks. Is there a third option of just keeping both? Or will one likely be out the door due to not having an owner with endless pockets like some clubs?

Honestly I don't know. Maybe they they do sign two starters and wait for that younger guy sometime down the road. If a deal isn't there it isn't there. If you go land David Price maybe you take a look at Mat Latos as well. I know they need two starters and one needs to be a TOR and the other can't be a 4 or 5 type. It's going to be interesting.

 

[CSF77]

This offense is night and day different without Soler. I'd keep him. The HR's will come.
I doubt anyone finds value in trading for Castro. If it takes throwing Baez into a package deal for a really good pitcher, go for it. I don't think he ever overcomes his strikeout issues. I'd survive with Castro / LaStella / Coghlan until Torres is ready.

It is not about Soler. It has more to do with the league adjusting to Schwarber.

 

[CSF77]

You could argue that you lose nothing with Bryant in RF.

My main point in trading Soler and signing Jackson in RF is getting one less questionable player off of the team. His D is suspect injured a lot and most of his production is off of fastballs.

Baez is more flexible. That is a bottom line. He gives more options through out the year. Not to mention if a guy goes down it is simple as putting LaStella at 2B and Baez can cover it.

Soler can still put it together but I would only entertain it if it brought back a talent like Grey.

And yes Castro by himself holds negative WAR value. No one is taking that deal unless it is in a deal that brings a greater package

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It is not about Soler. It has more to do with the league adjusting to Schwarber.

I'd agree with that but Schwarber was really looking like he was adjusting well over the last several games. His number weren't great over the last 7 but they were improving. Losing him for any length of time is a problem.

 

[SilenceS]

Listened to Dombrowski talk when he became the GM of the Red Sox. He talked about perceived value of players. He said that metrics do play a part, but the eye test still holds a lot of water.

Castro in the month of August batted .296 and had 7 doubles. Thats the Castro we are use to. I have read numerous reports that Theo and Jed won't give Castro away. Its why he wasn't traded at the deadline because they still perceived him as good value. Im sure the Cubs will get a ton of offers in the off season but pegging who stays and who goes is a complete shot in the dark. The Cubs have a lot of interchangeable parts. You also don't want to go all in on Russell or Baez. The Cubs have a lot to figure out.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Listened to Dombrowski talk when he became the GM of the Red Sox. He talked about perceived value of players. He said that metrics do play a part, but the eye test still holds a lot of water.

Castro in the month of August batted .296 and had 7 doubles. Thats the Castro we are use to. I have read numerous reports that Theo and Jed won't give Castro away. Its why he wasn't traded at the deadline because they still perceived him as good value. Im sure the Cubs will get a ton of offers in the off season but pegging who stays and who goes is a complete shot in the dark. The Cubs have a lot of interchangeable parts. You also don't want to go all in on Russell or Baez. The Cubs have a lot to figure out.

I'm willing to say Russell is an every day MLBer. Baez? Still up in the air.

 

[CSF77]

I think Baez will figure it out. What he has shown in his ability to reinvent himself speaks volume.

What he needs is opertunity to play every day and time to adjust.

Basically the same chance that Soler, Bryant, Russell and Schwarber have been given.

It is the right thing to do

 

[willycat]

Listened to Dombrowski talk when he became the GM of the Red Sox. He talked about perceived value of players. He said that metrics do play a part, but the eye test still holds a lot of water.

Castro in the month of August batted .296 and had 7 doubles. Thats the Castro we are use to. I have read numerous reports that Theo and Jed won't give Castro away. Its why he wasn't traded at the deadline because they still perceived him as good value. Im sure the Cubs will get a ton of offers in the off season but pegging who stays and who goes is a complete shot in the dark. The Cubs have a lot of interchangeable parts. You also don't want to go all in on Russell or Baez. The Cubs have a lot to figure out.

Sorry but you do go "all in" on Russell. Right now I will take Soler over Baez but he has shown the ability to adjust so this September is very important for him. Castro is as good as gone but in order to get something for him you have offer a package of maybe Vogelbach and a young arm.

 

[chibears55]

I think Baez will figure it out. What he has shown in his ability to reinvent himself speaks volume.

What he needs is opertunity to play every day and time to adjust.

Basically the same chance that Soler, Bryant, Russell and Schwarber have been given.

It is the right thing to do

Difference between those guys and baez though is
They didn't struggle heavy in their first 100/200+ AB
to the tune of 96 Ks and a .166 AVG

I would of liked to of seen baez brought up when they benched Castro, just so we could see him get 100 or so AB and how /if he has adjusted ..

Think now he will be lucky to get 40 Ab in Sept and it might not be enough to tell..so far 0-4 1K


Im hoping he plays Saturday against the lefty. .

 

[CSF77]

Difference between those guys and baez though is
They didn't struggle heavy in their first 100/200+ AB
to the tune of 96 Ks and a .166 AVG

I would of liked to of seen baez brought up when they benched Castro, just so we could see him get 100 or so AB and how /if he has adjusted ..

Think now he will be lucky to get 40 Ab in Sept and it might not be enough to tell..so far 0-4 1K


Im hoping he plays Saturday against the lefty. .

I think the ball is in Baez's court. He is hitting 0 for right now. He has not given Maddon a reason to play him more. We saw performance can motivate him. Castro was playing better and got a chance to start at 2B. Baez is in the same boat.

If he continues just making outs his playing time will be limited. They are in a race right now.

 

[DanTown]

I think Schwarber's highest value position to this team is definitely at C. Much like Joe Mauer when he was younger, having his bat at the C spot is soooo much more valuable than having a decent OF who hits. Also, you have to remember that this team has such a plethora of bats that basically keeping a C like Montero at his dollar value isn't going to be great if it means you can't get in on the David Price/Zach Grienke's of the world.

I'd rather keep Fowler than Montero at similar dollar amounts. For me, I'd love to see a roster of

C
Schwarber, Ross
IF
Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, LaStella, Baez, Villanueva
OF
Soler, Fowler, Coghlan, D. Young

Then look to move Castro, Montero for money savings and just to open up the roster. You say you're worried about the OF depth but of course you have two guys (Schwarber and Bryant) who can play there as well as potentially Baez.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think Schwarber's highest value position to this team is definitely at C. Much like Joe Mauer when he was younger, having his bat at the C spot is soooo much more valuable than having a decent OF who hits. Also, you have to remember that this team has such a plethora of bats that basically keeping a C like Montero at his dollar value isn't going to be great if it means you can't get in on the David Price/Zach Grienke's of the world.

I'd rather keep Fowler than Montero at similar dollar amounts. For me, I'd love to see a roster of

C
Schwarber, Ross
IF
Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, LaStella, Baez, Villanueva
OF
Soler, Fowler, Coghlan, D. Young

Then look to move Castro, Montero for money savings and just to open up the roster. You say you're worried about the OF depth but of course you have two guys (Schwarber and Bryant) who can play there as well as potentially Baez.

You've watched Schwarber catch right? There is no way he's ready to be your starting catcher in 2016. There's also no way he's not in the lineup which means he plays LF next year with maybe a once a week appearance behind the plate. If you're looking for the future full time catcher I think you're looking for Willson Contreras who's slashed .328/.409/.475 for Tennessee this year. He'll get his shot in Iowa next year and if he continues those kind of numbers, and if his framing improves he's likely to be up in 2017 which is the last year of Montero's deal. Contreras is solid at blocking and has a strong arm. I think Schwarber will continue to get some coaching and the occasional play behind the plate for a couple of years but I would be shocked if he's ever a full time starting catcher in MLB. His bat is far too valuable to screw around.