Danny Salazar

[schizm032003]

Bundy may still turn it around but the injury history and the fact that he's on a major league contract and must be kept on the 40 man makes him a tough target. Plus what your suggesting offering for him is umm generous for a guy who's really shown nothing.

I suggested that simply because of how highly he was thought of just two seasons back, and the fact that if he can get healthy, the guy can be scary good. I in no way think we'll go this route, cause I just dont see Theo taking a shot on the kid with the injury question hanging over his head. I also wouldn't mind seeing a trade with cleveland for Trevor Bauer. I don't know what it would take to get him from the indians but I'd imagine the asking price has got to be considerably less than they have been asking for to get Salazar or Carrasco. But in reality I like Bauer more than I do the other two for a few reasons. One is that the kid has a ton of upside, the kid has the pitches to have a very nice career as a top flight starting pitcher. Secondly I like him cause while he has said talent, he hadn't quite made a positive impression in the majors until last year. I think that this guy is on the cusp of a big time breakout. I do look at him and see some of what we saw in Arrieta when we first traded for him. A very talented and young, cost controlled starting pitcher, that had shown some flashes, but wasn't very consistant. Lastly I want him because I think Bosio can bring this guy along, and help him reach his full potential. I really believe the guy will be a beast and I'd love for him to reach that potential with our Cubs. The kid has top of the rotation type stuff. Plus he's still young, and doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm. Last year he began to show some of his talent and started to become a little more consistant. Like I said I don't know what it would take to get him from Cleveland, but the asking price likely isn't as much as Salazar's or Carrasco's. If we can piece together a reasonable deal that makes sense, I'd love to see us get it done.

I've seen rumors of us talking to Tampas well, and if we do add a young cost controlled starting pitcher thru trade, this is likely the team we'd trade with. I've seen rumors we was looking at Cobb, Odorizzi, or Moore. All three are nice young pitchers, but all have at least some sort of question mark. None that I think couldn't be fixed once we got whomever it is, but still questions none the less. Odorizzi I really like, but I don't see him as a fit for us. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, so I just don't see him as a fit in Wrigley. Moore is coming back from injury, but I do like that he's left handed, and is a pretty good strike out type. He would balance out the rotation by giving us another left hander so Lester wouldn't be the only lefty in the rotation. Plus I can see Lester really helping mentor this kid and helping him reach his full potential with the cubs. Cobb is another young guy coming back from injury, in fact I don't even know if he'd be ready until well after the season actually began. He piles up the strikeouts, he's got good stuff, he just needs a little more consistancy. I'd be happy with Moore or Cobb, but I don't kow what the asking price would be, being as they are coming back from injury that should depress the price tag on them. Plus we can get them to add McGee to the deal, and maybe Jenniings for CF, so they certainly are an attractive team to deal with. I also like Drew Smyly, he's a lefty as well, has pitched really well when healthy, but for some reason I wanna say that he's had arm issues before last year when he was with detroit.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

To me the need isn't for another pitcher, it's for a young cost controlled pitcher who has a strong chance at becoming a TOR. In that I think you were spot on with Bundy, I just think with the MLB contract and injury history he wouldn't be a target for a contending team if for no other reason that with the 40 man requirement you wouldn't have a spot for him while he develops.. Most of the other guys you mentioned have likely ceilings as MOR guys. In contrast the guys that the Cubs have seemed to have targeted, and failed to acquire, this off season have been guys like Salazar, Carrasco and Miller, all guys who could project to be TOR starters in the next couple of years. The Miller trade though through the market out of whack and the Cubs assets, primarily in Soler and Baez, to lead a trade haven't accrued enough value to close a deal for one of those guys in this market. It does a appear a correction will come in that market and at that point maybe Soler has a higher value and they'll be able to strike a deal. For now I think they're standing pat.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Soler isn't going anywhere unless they can get a big kahuna. I doubt that happens until the trade deadline, and by that point I suspect Soler will have shown to be one of the best bats in the lineup.

 

[brett05]

Soler isn't going anywhere unless they can get a big kahuna. I doubt that happens until the trade deadline, and by that point I suspect Soler will have shown to be one of the best bats in the lineup.

Or if he hasn't, he'll just be a piece if the team wants to land a TOR at the deadline. I lean toward Soler proving he is a SuperStar myself.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Soler isn't going anywhere unless they can get a big kahuna. I doubt that happens until the trade deadline, and by that point I suspect Soler will have shown to be one of the best bats in the lineup.

I completely agree. They're not going to overpay in prospects when Soler should be a good top of a deal player. The season is going to answer a lot of questions and I also think the market set by the Miller trade is heading for a correction. A lot of FO folks across baseball are pissed off at that deal.

 

[DanTown]

Cleveland believes they're close to contending but it will be hard to convince them to give up on either Carrasco or Salazar because they're so cost controlled. I think the Cubs maybe look at adding an arm via trade that isn't controlled a ton (i.e a Tyson Ross) or they'll look for a #2/#3 starter via trade on a team that wants to blow it up. The name that will make the most sense to that is probably Sonny Gray.

But here's a name that maybe the Cubs get aggressive on: Jon Gray. It's funny to think now that just a little over two years ago, people were saying the Cubs should take Gray over Bryant but Gray has kind of stagnated in his development and he's not quite the same guy but if the Cubs were to offer the Rockies a large offering of young prospects and the Rockies decide to reset, not the worst kind of trade for the Cubs to make.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Cleveland believes they're close to contending but it will be hard to convince them to give up on either Carrasco or Salazar because they're so cost controlled. I think the Cubs maybe look at adding an arm via trade that isn't controlled a ton (i.e a Tyson Ross) or they'll look for a #2/#3 starter via trade on a team that wants to blow it up. The name that will make the most sense to that is probably Sonny Gray.

But here's a name that maybe the Cubs get aggressive on: Jon Gray. It's funny to think now that just a little over two years ago, people were saying the Cubs should take Gray over Bryant but Gray has kind of stagnated in his development and he's not quite the same guy but if the Cubs were to offer the Rockies a large offering of young prospects and the Rockies decide to reset, not the worst kind of trade for the Cubs to make.

I like the Jon Gray thought as it doesn't look like his stuff will play in Denver at all and he's already been dangled by the Rockies. My only question is if he's any good. Scouts seemed to be very mixed on that now.

Sonny Gray is the guy I think the FO wants. If Oakland struggles I think he'll be made available the question is cost. If the cost is based on the Miller trade it ain't happening. If there's a correction like I mentioned then maybe.

 

[brett05]

I like the Jon Gray thought as it doesn't look like his stuff will play in Denver at all and he's already been dangled by the Rockies. My only question is if he's any good. Scouts seemed to be very mixed on that now.

Sonny Gray is the guy I think the FO wants. If Oakland struggles I think he'll be made available the question is cost. If the cost is based on the Miller trade it ain't happening. If there's a correction like I mentioned then maybe.

The problem might be that the correction has been made and it was up to the Miller trade that is the corrected norm.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The problem might be that the correction has been made and it was up to the Miller trade that is the corrected norm.

That is certainly possible but there will be some happy execs if Miller gets off to a slow start. If the Miller haul is the new norm teams will just have to adjust.

 

[Parade_Rain]

That is certainly possible but there will be some happy execs if Miller gets off to a slow start. If the Miller haul is the new norm teams will just have to adjust.

There aren't many Herschel Walker trades in the NFL. I think Atlanta fleeced the Dbags, who are in a win now mode all of a sudden, and the market will correct itself.

 

[beckdawg]

I like the Jon Gray thought as it doesn't look like his stuff will play in Denver at all and he's already been dangled by the Rockies. My only question is if he's any good. Scouts seemed to be very mixed on that now.

Source? I hadn't read this and obviously believe you but I'd like a bit more context.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Source? I hadn't read this and obviously believe you but I'd like a bit more context.

I'd have to find it. I heard more than one baseball media member talk about around the trade deadline and since it was a bit of a shock it caught my attention. It could have been smoke so I'm not going to stand hard behind it and the point could be moot since his late season call up (although not very good). I will take a look though.

 

[beckdawg]

That is certainly possible but there will be some happy execs if Miller gets off to a slow start. If the Miller haul is the new norm teams will just have to adjust.

There's no way that it realistically can be the new norm. How many teams even have top 15 prospects? And then you add in a top 75 and whatever you equate Inciarte and there's just not that kind of talent in everyone's farm system. This strikes me as the James Shield trade where a team was fairly desperate to compete now and paid a huge premium to do so. And I even was one of the few at the time suggesting the Shields trade wasn't *as bad* as it was being made out to be. With that being said, the price of pitching didn't go absolutely nuts after that. Price was traded for fairly minor prospects comparatively. Shark/Hammel netted a some what similar value to the Miller trade but that was A) the deadline and B) two pitchers who'd had great seasons to that point. Nathan Eovaldi was 24 and was part of a deal for Prado and Dave Phelps. Wade Miley was dealt for Webster and De La Rosa. Latos was dealt for basically DeSclafani. Porcello was basically dealt for Cespedes.

Think you get the idea here. My only real take away here is that the Dbacks probably saw this as selling high on Inciarte which honestly is probably fair. Plus, they probably weren't really bargain shopping here as fast as the deal happened which tells me they REALLY like Miller probably more than most. And if that's how they view Miller and that's the price they had to pay then that's their choice. Ultimately, if Inciarte falls back some and Miller becomes more of a top 15 pitcher then it's probably a some what fair deal.

But as this pertains to trades going forward, I don't think you're going to find teams so infatuated with most players. And the other thing is supply and demand here. How many good young starters are "on the market" in one form or another? Think you can say Fernandez, Carrassco, Salazar, Teheran, Ross, plus 3-4 TB pitchers. How many MLB ready good young hitters are available? And more to the point, of young hitters and young pitchers, who's more risky due to injury? That's why ultimately I think the price on pitching as it pertains to the cubs is going to be less than some expect because if you need a young 25+ HR hitter with 4-5 years of control, who are you going to go to? Maybe Atlanta considers trading Freeman but he's already getting paid. Maybe TB talks on Kevin Kiermaier but doesn't seem likely and a huge majority of his value is in defense(around 3.4 fWAR). After that who is there? And then you start talking top 15-25 prospects and guys like Seager are only going to be dealt for Fernandez types. And many of the top 25 bats aren't even at AA yet. So, supply is very low for bats.

 

[beckdawg]

I'd have to find it. I heard more than one baseball media member talk about around the trade deadline and since it was a bit of a shock it caught my attention. It could have been smoke so I'm not going to stand hard behind it and the point could be moot since his late season call up (although not very good). I will take a look though.

Don't worry about it too much. I just hadn't heard that and Gray would make sense for the cubs so I was a tad curious. The main reason I was questioning it though is Colorado doesn't have much pitching even after dealing Tulow. Maybe they grab some more with a Cargo trade but after Gray and I guess Hoffman it's pretty bare.

 

[Diehardfan]

There aren't many Herschel Walker trades in the NFL. I think Atlanta fleeced the Dbags, who are in a win now mode all of a sudden, and the market will correct itself.

Good reference with the Walker deal. Both trades were clusterfucks and I don't think the Atl-Dbags trade will set any more precedent than Dallas-Minn trade did.

 

[DanTown]

There's no way that it realistically can be the new norm. How many teams even have top 15 prospects? And then you add in a top 75 and whatever you equate Inciarte and there's just not that kind of talent in everyone's farm system. This strikes me as the James Shield trade where a team was fairly desperate to compete now and paid a huge premium to do so. And I even was one of the few at the time suggesting the Shields trade wasn't *as bad* as it was being made out to be. With that being said, the price of pitching didn't go absolutely nuts after that. Price was traded for fairly minor prospects comparatively. Shark/Hammel netted a some what similar value to the Miller trade but that was A) the deadline and B) two pitchers who'd had great seasons to that point. Nathan Eovaldi was 24 and was part of a deal for Prado and Dave Phelps. Wade Miley was dealt for Webster and De La Rosa. Latos was dealt for basically DeSclafani. Porcello was basically dealt for Cespedes.

Think you get the idea here. My only real take away here is that the Dbacks probably saw this as selling high on Inciarte which honestly is probably fair. Plus, they probably weren't really bargain shopping here as fast as the deal happened which tells me they REALLY like Miller probably more than most. And if that's how they view Miller and that's the price they had to pay then that's their choice. Ultimately, if Inciarte falls back some and Miller becomes more of a top 15 pitcher then it's probably a some what fair deal.

But as this pertains to trades going forward, I don't think you're going to find teams so infatuated with most players. And the other thing is supply and demand here. How many good young starters are "on the market" in one form or another? Think you can say Fernandez, Carrassco, Salazar, Teheran, Ross, plus 3-4 TB pitchers. How many MLB ready good young hitters are available? And more to the point, of young hitters and young pitchers, who's more risky due to injury? That's why ultimately I think the price on pitching as it pertains to the cubs is going to be less than some expect because if you need a young 25+ HR hitter with 4-5 years of control, who are you going to go to? Maybe Atlanta considers trading Freeman but he's already getting paid. Maybe TB talks on Kevin Kiermaier but doesn't seem likely and a huge majority of his value is in defense(around 3.4 fWAR). After that who is there? And then you start talking top 15-25 prospects and guys like Seager are only going to be dealt for Fernandez types. And many of the top 25 bats aren't even at AA yet. So, supply is very low for bats.

Eh, hindsight doesn't make a trade better or worse. They paid a lot to get Shelby Miller. If they were going to trade all those guys, are we saying Shelby Miller is the best pitcher they'd get? Seems unlikely.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Eh, hindsight doesn't make a trade better or worse. They paid a lot to get Shelby Miller. If they were going to trade all those guys, are we saying Shelby Miller is the best pitcher they'd get? Seems unlikely.

At the time maybe, but more likely they fell in love with Shelby Miller. There are people that think he hasn't come close to his potential yet and he is only 25 coming off his best season. My point is unless you think he's Cy effing Young you don't pay that much in prospects for a pitcher, especially one with obvious question marks. Maybe this wasn't a market setter but it did screech the controllable pitching trade market to a screeching halt. Atlanta wanted a similar haul for Teheran and Cleveland felt that Carrasco and Salazar were worth the same kind of deal. As I said I expect a correction this summer, I kind of like the Herschel Walker analogy, but Brett could be right and this is the new normal. Time will tell.

 

[beckdawg]

Eh, hindsight doesn't make a trade better or worse. They paid a lot to get Shelby Miller. If they were going to trade all those guys, are we saying Shelby Miller is the best pitcher they'd get? Seems unlikely.

Well that's just the thing. Maybe you and I don't think Shelby Miller is great but perhaps their scouts do. For instance, let's say AZ views Miller the 1b to Jose Fernandez as the 1a plan for this offseason. Reports are they talked to Miami but Miami basically wanted them to dismantle their team. Given the choice I'm sure they probably would prefer Fernandez for the same price but that obviously didn't get things done. Now, if you'd given up the package they gave up for Miller to acquire Fernandez instead most people would have been more "meh" about it as it's probably fair return. As such, if AZ views Miller as that level of pitcher or very close to it, they could probably rightly argue it's worth it.

Ultimately, the problem is AZ payed the price that they seemingly think Miller is worth rather than the perceived price most other people think he's worth. It's not hard to argue against the trade. However, there's something to be said for going out and getting what you want. It's easy to say they could have got <x> for that instead but Miller is the only young pitcher traded thus far. As for how this plays out going forward, I think AZ was just in a case where for whatever reason they pushed all in and decided to go for it. Whether or not that was "the right" move is debatable. Most would probably argue no but that isn't always a decision that is rationally made. For example see the 2008 era cubs. And even if it's kind of a bad idea on how to run a franchise, the Marlins have done the compete now and turn into trash later way of playing which can lead to titles. It's obviously a dicey gamble they are taking but if they are wrong they sell off, go back to being terrible for a few years and collect competitive balance money/picks.

 

[beckdawg]

Maybe this wasn't a market setter but it did screech the controllable pitching trade market to a screeching halt.

I'm not sure this does. Perhaps in the short term but in honesty, the market was already back logged by so much pitching being on the market. I mean Leake just signed today and you still have Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Mark Buehrle, Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister, Cliff Lee, Josh Johnson, Chad Billingsley and others out there. Any other year that's a REALLY healthy 2nd tier of FA starters. This year that's 3rd or 4th tier and they are still unsigned. In all honesty, I expected this to be how the off season played out because there's relatively few reasons for a team to sit down and say we absolutely must over pay Cleveland/Atlanta/Tampa for a starter right now. AZ might be a special case because it appears they blew their load on Grienke and still needed pitching help so trading for a cost control option was their only out.

Additionally, the OF market was a bit delayed apparently by the cubs with Zobrist/Heyward. That's starting to free up a bit but a team like Cleveland still might be able to find the OF help they are looking for there rather than trading. Once some of these higher profile FA start coming off the board I think trade talks might be a bit more realistic. I think we might start hearing more legit rumors in mid-january.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure this does. Perhaps in the short term but in honesty, the market was already back logged by so much pitching being on the market. I mean Leake just signed today and you still have Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Scott Kazmir, Mark Buehrle, Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister, Cliff Lee, Josh Johnson, Chad Billingsley and others out there. Any other year that's a REALLY healthy 2nd tier of FA starters. This year that's 3rd or 4th tier and they are still unsigned. In all honesty, I expected this to be how the off season played out because there's relatively few reasons for a team to sit down and say we absolutely must over pay Cleveland/Atlanta/Tampa for a starter right now. AZ might be a special case because it appears they blew their load on Grienke and still needed pitching help so trading for a cost control option was their only out.

Additionally, the OF market was a bit delayed apparently by the cubs with Zobrist/Heyward. That's starting to free up a bit but a team like Cleveland still might be able to find the OF help they are looking for there rather than trading. Once some of these higher profile FA start coming off the board I think trade talks might be a bit more realistic. I think we might start hearing more legit rumors in mid-january.

They are just looking for a D first OF right now. So they are committed to the current OF situation. I doubt they want to make a major investment here as A-Jax would be ideal to strengthen the late inning D. So that means they want to make a low investment here.

Center Fielders
Dexter Fowler (30)
Guillermo Heredia (25)
Austin Jackson (29)
Denard Span (32)
Drew Stubbs (31)


IDK seems like they would be better off using Szczur as a 4th OF IMO if they are just looking at a late inning gloveman.


Now on the pitching front that leaves Baez as the centerpiece for any trade after Theo pretty much said they are moving forward with Soler but kept mum on Baez. Add to it there was speculation they were close to a trade with Javy right before his injury. Then them going after a UI type as the add in from NYY... It really feels like if they are going to deal it would be centered around Baez and Hendricks.

Seeing how Alexi Amarista is the opening day SS. Shoot I would still look at Ross for Hendricks and Baez.