Demp not going anywhere

[Jntg4]

There are too many holes to fill to get this team to contend by next year. Cubs have the worst middle relief that I've ever seen, we'll need a 1B, 3B, and RF (assuming Kosuke is traded).

That's a pretty extensive list, and with between Fonzie, Kosuke (assuming he's not traded), and Z's contracts, and then arbitration of Soto, Baker, and a couple others I think, there's still a lot of money tied up. While we can probably assess a couple holes, like getting Prince and some middle relief, then having LeMahieu play 3B and see how Vitters or Colvin are doing come next year to play either CF or RF, respectively.

Honestly, I don't think it will be much before 2014 before the Cubs actually start contending. And that's assuming Ricketts cleans house on Hendry and I'd even think about moving Rudy and bringing some one in that can teach the young guys some plate discipline and patience.

Also, do we hang onto Johnson, Byrd, Wood, Hill, etc.?

Fuku's contract is up after this season.

 

[dabynsky]

There are too many holes to fill to get this team to contend by next year. Cubs have the worst middle relief that I've ever seen, we'll need a 1B, 3B, and RF (assuming Kosuke is traded).

That's a pretty extensive list, and with between Fonzie, Kosuke (assuming he's not traded), and Z's contracts, and then arbitration of Soto, Baker, and a couple others I think, there's still a lot of money tied up. While we can probably assess a couple holes, like getting Prince and some middle relief, then having LeMahieu play 3B and see how Vitters or Colvin are doing come next year to play either CF or RF, respectively.

Honestly, I don't think it will be much before 2014 before the Cubs actually start contending. And that's assuming Ricketts cleans house on Hendry and I'd even think about moving Rudy and bringing some one in that can teach the young guys some plate discipline and patience.

Also, do we hang onto Johnson, Byrd, Wood, Hill, etc.?

You did a probably good job of answering how we could fill those holes yourself. Prince Fielder makes a huge difference in a ballclub. Prince Fielder right now is a top 10 WAR guy. The difference between having him and a slightly above average guy like Pena is more than just a few wins. I don't see a bad offense next season with a huge improvement like Fielder in the lineup even with bringing Ramirez back for a season or two. I would think that one way the Cubs could save cash would be to let Kouske go and fill his "spot" with Jackson or Colvin. Get another small upgrade somewhere in the lineup (Kelly Johnson at 2B over Darwin Barney for example) and this is actual a well above average to good offense next year.

I really don't have issues with the Cubs bullpen. The Cubs have a real nice backend of the bullpen with Marmol, Wood and Marshall. Shark has actually figured something out here because he is on a roll out of the pen. That gives you 4 good relievers. Angel Guzman is actually throwing again and has some positive results in Peoria so far this year. Real long shot that he comes back, but that could give you 5 strong arms. I am sorry but 4 to 5 arms you can count on is a great bullpen. Teams 10-12 pitchers on the staff generally suck. The reason it has been so apparent on the Cubs is the holes in the starting staff have exposed those 10-12 (or after injuries really pitchers 16-18in the system). If the Cubs get better starting pitching next year somehow (addition of better SPs through trade or free agency, better health of the starting pitchers, etc.), that goes deeper into games than the bullpen will be fine.

I don't see how it is impossible for the Cubs to be competitive next year with a few realistic upgrades.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Its gonna take quite a bit more than a few realistic upgrades unfortunately..

There's lots of major issues that we have to contend with.. most of them bluntly fundamental. Which may or may not be able to be fixed with coaching.. Some of its just bad players.

 

[dabynsky]

Its gonna take quite a bit more than a few realistic upgrades unfortunately..

There's lots of major issues that we have to contend with.. most of them bluntly fundamental. Which may or may not be able to be fixed with coaching.. Some of its just bad players.

What are the major issues that you see? They make a lot of errors on defense which is a problem. That said how many guys on this team are below average defensively right now. I see two guys on this team that are bad on defense maybe three depending on how you want to count.

The offense I've given a fairly realistic way that the Cubs could have an above average offense next year. You don't think a team with these eight regular starters (1B Fielder, 2B Kelly Johnson, SS Starlin Castro, 3B Ramirez, LF Soriano, CF Jackson, RF Byrd) couldn't be a well above average offense.

The thing that has sunk this team has been its starting pitching. If Dempster pitches like he has outside of April, and Garza continues to improve this actually a decent rotation. Another year gives guys like McNutt a chance to develop into some actual depth in the system.

Look no one is going to say that the Cubs are a lock to contend next year, but I think it is equally wrong to say that they have no chance to contend.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

What are the major issues that you see? They make a lot of errors on defense which is a problem. That said how many guys on this team are below average defensively right now. I see two guys on this team that are bad on defense maybe three depending on how you want to count.

The offense I've given a fairly realistic way that the Cubs could have an above average offense next year. You don't think a team with these eight regular starters (1B Fielder, 2B Kelly Johnson, SS Starlin Castro, 3B Ramirez, LF Soriano, CF Jackson, RF Byrd) couldn't be a well above average offense.

The thing that has sunk this team has been its starting pitching. If Dempster pitches like he has outside of April, and Garza continues to improve this actually a decent rotation. Another year gives guys like McNutt a chance to develop into some actual depth in the system.

Look no one is going to say that the Cubs are a lock to contend next year, but I think it is equally wrong to say that they have no chance to contend.

Right now errors, incorrect pitching (bad pitch placement), basically no patience at the plate..

Those are massive problems with due to the players.

The other major issues are due directly to Quade..

Shitty lineup and pitcher management have cost us at least 5 games probably more.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Not saying we wont contend.. Just pointing out our bad issues at the moment.

 

[Rice Cube]

Look no one is going to say that the Cubs are a lock to contend next year, but I think it is equally wrong to say that they have no chance to contend.

It's not impossible, but in order to contend a lot of things have to go right. We won't know until the projections come out, and for the call-ups like Brett Jackson, we really won't know until they play and amass about 200 plate appearances or so. You've already alluded to the pitching issues. But the point is that the core of the team is aging and will more likely suck worse than to rebound to their near-peak performance levels. To contend, you pretty much have to hope that every starter plays out of their minds. That's possible, but how much would you bank on that actually happening? How many teams outside of the Yankees, Red Sox, and maybe the Phillies can afford to gamble like that?

 

[dabynsky]

It's not impossible, but in order to contend a lot of things have to go right. We won't know until the projections come out, and for the call-ups like Brett Jackson, we really won't know until they play and amass about 200 plate appearances or so. You've already alluded to the pitching issues. But the point is that the core of the team is aging and will more likely suck worse than to rebound to their near-peak performance levels. To contend, you pretty much have to hope that every starter plays out of their minds. That's possible, but how much would you bank on that actually happening? How many teams outside of the Yankees, Red Sox, and maybe the Phillies can afford to gamble like that?

I disagree with your assessment. If guys play just as good as they are right now adding in Fielder for Pena and Johnson for Barney makes this offense significantly better. It adds another hitter that works the count. Jackson is a gamble, and in all honesty I wouldn't mind Fukudome on a short term cheaper deal. The reason I included was to be realistic about the finances because adding two guys like that will cost some serious money.

I don't know what you want me to say about the pitching. Yes Dempster is getting up there in age, and it is certainly possible that he could be done next year. However, he has pitched much closer to the levels we have expected him since May 1st, and it is quite possible that he will continue for at least one more year. Garza also had a shaky start, but has turned in some excellent outings since then. I see a fairly average to possibly above average staff depending on what we can get of Cashner and or McNutt next year.

And for the last part is really answered on two fronts. First off the question I was addressing was whether it was possible for the Cubs to contend next year. I think I answered the question, and the statement about gambling wasn't the issue. Second of all, what is the gamble that I am taking by signing those two guys depending on the contract. Fielder takes the spot that is a weakness in the system and fills it with best in baseball type production. It isn't like Fielder is blocking someone that can provide anything close to his level of production that will be much cheaper. Johnson was an example, and we do have a number of young players that can play 2B that will be or are ready at the position (Barney, Dewitt, LaMahieu). That said none of those three really project to be impact players, and the best of the bunch can also play 3rd (which from what I've heard is his better defensive position). So this goes back to what I've repeatedly been arguing for is making moves that make sense for both now and the future.

 

[poodski]

What are the major issues that you see? They make a lot of errors on defense which is a problem. That said how many guys on this team are below average defensively right now. I see two guys on this team that are bad on defense maybe three depending on how you want to count.

Only issue I would say is we have the highest BABIP for pitchers in the majors. That points to it being more than just a two person problem.

Or a sign that our pitching has been extremely unlucky.

 

[nwfisch]

:gtfo:

 

[dabynsky]

:gtfo:

Way to advance the discourse in this thread...

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Way to advance the discourse in this thread...

lol it was for a spammer that I deleted actually..

noting on you guys.

 

[dabynsky]

lol it was for a spammer that I deleted actually..

noting on you guys.

Then I apologize for being snarky there.

 

[cubsneedmiracle]

Then I apologize for being snarky there.

No problem dude!!

 

[AceCubbie]

Only issue I would say is we have the highest BABIP for pitchers in the majors. That points to it being more than just a two person problem.

Or a sign that our pitching has been extremely unlucky.

Probably a combination of bad luck (for the Z's, Dempster's and Garza's) and a whole lot of meatballs (for the Russell's and Davis's).

 

[poodski]

Probably a combination of bad luck (for the Z's, Dempster's and Garza's) and a whole lot of meatballs (for the Russell's and Davis's).

Russell's BABIP isn't bad....but thats because most of the balls that fly off the bat end up leaving the yard.

 

[dabynsky]

Probably a combination of bad luck (for the Z's, Dempster's and Garza's) and a whole lot of meatballs (for the Russell's and Davis's).

I think you hit it on the head with that one Ace. The Cubs do have a very high BABIP, but they also have a high LD% at 21% (using the rule of thumb that means they should have a BABIp around .330 and it is actually lower right now at .321). Guys like Marcus Mateo (33%), Jeff Stevens (26%), Chris Carpenter (30%), Rodrigo Lopez (24%), Casey Coleman (25%) drive that number up. Most of the Cubs pitchers are within 2% of that 21% average or lower. The only regular pitcher significantly above that is Randy Wells at 27%.

 

[dabynsky]

Russell's BABIP isn't bad....but thats because most of the balls that fly off the bat end up leaving the yard.

Russell also has one of the lowest LD% on the team which I was shocked to see. His LD% is only 14%. The problem is that when guys do square it up it goes a long way as you alluded to.

 

[poodski]

I think you hit it on the head with that one Ace. The Cubs do have a very high BABIP, but they also have a high LD% at 21% (using the rule of thumb that means they should have a BABIp around .330 and it is actually lower right now at .321). Guys like Marcus Mateo (33%), Jeff Stevens (26%), Chris Carpenter (30%), Rodrigo Lopez (24%), Casey Coleman (25%) drive that number up. Most of the Cubs pitchers are within 2% of that 21% average or lower. The only regular pitcher significantly above that is Randy Wells at 27%.

Where you getting that LD%? FG has them only at 19.5% (which is still high).

 

[dabynsky]

Where you getting that LD%? FG has them only at 19.5% (which is still high).

Baseball-reference has him at 15%. His BABIP there is listed at .315 though. Fangraphs has him at 14.3% this year and 19.6% last year.

Or did you mean as a team?