Demp not going anywhere

[nwfisch]

Wouldn't it be 60% on the DL with Garza Wells and Cashner?

 

[poodski]

I think what made him less confident was the fact that even if the Cubs were healthy, the Cubs would be battling for 4th place instead of 5th.
This Cubs team wasn't supposed to contend this year anyways, so I'm not really sure why the Cubs signed Pena to a $10M deal.

Meh if the Cubs were 500 they would be 4 games out of first.

I agree on Pena.

I'm less confident because we clearly have no pitching depth at all. We need that because we are going to have starting pitchers on the DL every year.

Well this is why some people were saying to have Cashner in the minors so we had someone in the instance someone got hurt.

 

[Jntg4]

Meh if the Cubs were 500 they would be 4 games out of first.

I agree on Pena.



Well this is why some people were saying to have Cashner in the minors so we had someone in the instance someone got hurt.

Let's not start about Silva again... I don't want to get back into that. Should have kept Gorzelanny though.

 

[Rice Cube]

Should've kept Gorz, yup. And probably should've kept our farm intact instead of blowing it up for Garza. But no use crying over spilled milk...

 

[poodski]

Let's not start about Silva again... I don't want to get back into that. Should have kept Gorzelanny though.

I am not trying to start a whole new discussion but the fact is we HAD depth and sent it all away.

Most teams don't have 7 MLB ready starting pitchers. It's just the way it is.

 

[dabynsky]

The Garza deal really isn't going to haunt us too much I think. Archer has been pretty bad so far this year, and while he certainly could find it at some point I am not sure we lost a ton there. The SS Hak-ju Lee (spelling?) is going to be the real loss in the trade because he was supposedly even better than Castro defensively, and he is hitting pretty well in the minors. That said I don't see how the Garza deal made this team any worse if not better because Garza has actually been the best pitcher we've had this year.

 

[poodski]

Should've kept Gorz, yup. And probably should've kept our farm intact instead of blowing it up for Garza. But no use crying over spilled milk...

At the beginning of the year I would have completely agree, but if Garza can pitch like this (I am assuming that BABIP is not going to stay at .340) I am perfectly okay with it.

Especially since I believe TINSTAAPP (and Archer is struggling mightily) I will miss Lee though.... and of course Super Sam Fuld.

 

[Rice Cube]

The Garza deal really isn't going to haunt us too much I think. Archer has been pretty bad so far this year, and while he certainly could find it at some point I am not sure we lost a ton there. The SS Hak-ju Lee (spelling?) is going to be the real loss in the trade because he was supposedly even better than Castro defensively, and he is hitting pretty well in the minors. That said I don't see how the Garza deal made this team any worse if not better because Garza has actually been the best pitcher we've had this year.

Mostly it was the loss of all those cost controlled years. Plus Garza is going to just keep getting more expensive through arbitration.

 

[dabynsky]

Mostly it was the loss of all those cost controlled years. Plus Garza is going to just keep getting more expensive through arbitration.

I understand the value of cost controlled years, but we really don't have impact arms in our system anymore. This isn't the early 2000s when we had guy after guy that could come in and be a front of the rotation guy. Most of the arms we have are middle of the rotation at best. Garza isn't elite, but he was a solid gamble that he could take a step forward towards being elite. Hasn't worked out so far, but I think the deal made sense for this team.

 

[poodski]

I understand the value of cost controlled years, but we really don't have impact arms in our system anymore. This isn't the early 2000s when we had guy after guy that could come in and be a front of the rotation guy. Most of the arms we have are middle of the rotation at best. Garza isn't elite, but he was a solid gamble that he could take a step forward towards being elite. Hasn't worked out so far, but I think the deal made sense for this team.

I think McNutt could possibly be a front rotation guy.

Not banking on it, but I think he has that capability.

 

[Rice Cube]

I understand the value of cost controlled years, but we really don't have impact arms in our system anymore. This isn't the early 2000s when we had guy after guy that could come in and be a front of the rotation guy. Most of the arms we have are middle of the rotation at best. Garza isn't elite, but he was a solid gamble that he could take a step forward towards being elite. Hasn't worked out so far, but I think the deal made sense for this team.

I simply don't like the idea of selling the farm for marginal wins, which is basically what happened here. Garza is a 4-win pitcher at best (WAR, not pitcher-wins) and selling the farm to get from 79 to 81 wins still won't get you to the playoffs. The Cubs were basically hoping that Pena wouldn't suck, that no one would get hurt, and that old guys would bounce back. I think of this past offseason as taking multiple shots in the dark and in that context, tradng for Garza and then trading Gorzelanny away basically netted you an extra win and costs more money in terms of salary and in the lost cost control...it still doesn't make sense to me. I like Garza and I think if the club were in contention, they should try to snag him at the trade deadline, but this offseason trade just made me retch.

 

[dabynsky]

I simply don't like the idea of selling the farm for marginal wins, which is basically what happened here. Garza is a 4-win pitcher at best (WAR, not pitcher-wins) and selling the farm to get from 79 to 81 wins still won't get you to the playoffs. The Cubs were basically hoping that Pena wouldn't suck, that no one would get hurt, and that old guys would bounce back. I think of this past offseason as taking multiple shots in the dark and in that context, tradng for Garza and then trading Gorzelanny away basically netted you an extra win and costs more money in terms of salary and in the lost cost control...it still doesn't make sense to me. I like Garza and I think if the club were in contention, they should try to snag him at the trade deadline, but this offseason trade just made me retch.

You do realize that this Garza is 22nd in baseball for WAR? I agree that this year was patchwork chance at competing, but I don't see any of the moves they made this year affect their chances down the road. We lost one guy that had a chance to be an impact player at a position we already have a guy that is likely to be an impact player. Archer may or may not turn into a big league starter, but we got a guy that is still young enough to compete for several seasons down the road and is under team control for a couple years.

 

[Rice Cube]

You do realize that this Garza is 22nd in baseball for WAR? I agree that this year was patchwork chance at competing, but I don't see any of the moves they made this year affect their chances down the road. We lost one guy that had a chance to be an impact player at a position we already have a guy that is likely to be an impact player. Archer may or may not turn into a big league starter, but we got a guy that is still young enough to compete for several seasons down the road and is under team control for a couple years.

Yeah, his WAR is boosted by his really good FIP so far. I'm not looking at the trade based on what he has done so far as a Cub, but rather from the standpoint of what each would be projected to do at the time of the trade. I feel like by the time the Cubs are competitive again, Garza will become another $15MM a year pitcher about whom the fans will be complaining is overpaid anyway

 

[dabynsky]

I guess that is where the crux of the debate lies. How long before the Cubs can become competitive again? If you believe some of the doom and gloom then it is going to be three to four years. I think that by making moves like Garza you can get this team competitive much sooner and possibly as early as next season.

 

[poodski]

You do realize that this Garza is 22nd in baseball for WAR? I agree that this year was patchwork chance at competing, but I don't see any of the moves they made this year affect their chances down the road. We lost one guy that had a chance to be an impact player at a position we already have a guy that is likely to be an impact player. Archer may or may not turn into a big league starter, but we got a guy that is still young enough to compete for several seasons down the road and is under team control for a couple years.

Yeah, but even if he pitches the exact same for the rest of the year and using ZiPS to project him to finish with 183.7 innings that only makes him a 5.2 WAR guy. That's probably a career year for him.

Gorzy and Silva would have IMO been at least average or given us a 2.0 WAR. So basically we traded everything for three wins, and the Cubs (at least not the 2011 Cubs) are not withing three wins of doing anything significant.

That's why I agree it was an unneeded move. Though like I said if he can actually pitch like this I might change my stance on how I feel about the trade. I more expect a 2.5-3.5 win guy, not a 5+.

 

[dabynsky]

Yeah, but even if he pitches the exact same for the rest of the year and using ZiPS to project him to finish with 183.7 innings that only makes him a 5.2 WAR guy. That's probably a career year for him.

Gorzy and Silva would have IMO been at least average or given us a 2.0 WAR. So basically we traded everything for three wins, and the Cubs (at least not the 2011 Cubs) are not withing three wins of doing anything significant.

That's why I agree it was an unneeded move. Though like I said if he can actually pitch like this I might change my stance on how I feel about the trade. I more expect a 2.5-3.5 win guy, not a 5+.

Okay but we all agree that this team is better after making this trade. We control him for the next couple of years and we have nothing in the system that is likely to be as good as him. I don't get that idea that just because we don't have a strong chance to compete this year that we don't go out and make our team better.

BTW, 5.2 would be a career year for him, and make him a well above average starter. Not the "ace" you probably think of but a guy that is better than a lot of other teams number 1.

 

[poodski]

Okay but we all agree that this team is better after making this trade. We control him for the next couple of years and we have nothing in the system that is likely to be as good as him. I don't get that idea that just because we don't have a strong chance to compete this year that we don't go out and make our team better.

I can agree with that.

Except I think higher of McNutt than what you seem to.

 

[dabynsky]

I can agree with that.

Except I think higher of McNutt than what you seem to.

I think McNutt is a perfectly viable candidate to be an effective major league starter. I just haven't seen anything from scouting or his numbers that shout front of the rotation, ace type starter. Garza maybe a bit fringy for that category but an argument could be made for him.

 

[Jntg4]

I'm still not all that high on McNutt... must be knowing that he was our second best pitcher or something, IDK. I mean, he doesn't excite me for some reason.

As for how long until we compete, I see it this way:
2011: :facepalm:
2012: BJax starting CF Opening Day, players develop
2013: About .500
2014: In the race all year
2015: World Series, because Back to the Future says so

 

[EnjoyYourTiger]

I guess that is where the crux of the debate lies. How long before the Cubs can become competitive again? If you believe some of the doom and gloom then it is going to be three to four years. I think that by making moves like Garza you can get this team competitive much sooner and possibly as early as next season.

There are too many holes to fill to get this team to contend by next year. Cubs have the worst middle relief that I've ever seen, we'll need a 1B, 3B, and RF (assuming Kosuke is traded).

That's a pretty extensive list, and with between Fonzie, Kosuke (assuming he's not traded), and Z's contracts, and then arbitration of Soto, Baker, and a couple others I think, there's still a lot of money tied up. While we can probably assess a couple holes, like getting Prince and some middle relief, then having LeMahieu play 3B and see how Vitters or Colvin are doing come next year to play either CF or RF, respectively.

Honestly, I don't think it will be much before 2014 before the Cubs actually start contending. And that's assuming Ricketts cleans house on Hendry and I'd even think about moving Rudy and bringing some one in that can teach the young guys some plate discipline and patience.

Also, do we hang onto Johnson, Byrd, Wood, Hill, etc.?