DeShaun Watson - Crunching the Numbers

[remydat]

Ok so been a lot of talk about Watson so took a look at his contract and the implications to Houston and Chicago if he was traded. First let's look at the cap situations.

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

The above assumes a salary cap of 176 million and the effective cap space assumes signing your rookie class and filling out a 51 man roster as in the offseason only the top 51 contracts count. Thus, the Bears are currently 10.7m above the 2021 cap and the Texans are 17.8 million above. So right off the bat, we have some cap issues to deal with.

Next let's look at his contract.

Deshaun Watson Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Deshaun Watson contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

This is great news for the Bears as in 2021, Watson would only cost them 10.5 million in a trade because the signing bonus of 5.4 million would be charged to the Texans. That would put the Bears at about 21.2 million over the cap with no other moves. However, the bad news is if the Texans trade Watson, his signing bonus accelerates so he would add 5.7 million to the cap. Currently he counts 15.9 million against the cap and trading him would result in 21.6 million in dead cap (5.4 million x 4 years remaining). That would take Houston to 23.5 million over the cap. Going forward the Watson would cost the Bears 37m, 32m, 32m.

In short, the Texans would actually have to cut and restructure guys to make a trade work unless the cap is closer 195 million. In addition, they are unlikely to want to take on more salary or high priced vets so probably would be looking for draft picks rather than a combo of picks and players. In my next post. I will look at how the Texans and Bears can make this happen.

 

[remydat]

Ok as for how to make this work. Remember that trading Watson means Houston would be 23.5 million over the cap assuming a 51 man roster with any open slots filled by the draft and minimum salary guys. Realistically let's say Houston wants about 15 million in cap space so they can at least get a couple of guys in FA. So need 38.5 million in space.

Cutting Watt and Cooks are no brainers. At 17.5 and 12 million in cap saved, that is 29.5 million saved. Really from there the Texans have a lot of avenues to create space as any combination of these guys can get them past the hump.

Roby - 8.2 million saved
David J - 7 million saved
Martin - 6.2 million saved
McKinney - 7 million saved
Duke J - 5 million saved

In short, they can create a fuck ton of cap space if they desire to rebuilt given the disaster that was BOB. However, that also means they can easily retool under Watson if they wanted too by cutting some of these vets. In short, they have flexibility to go in a number of directions and can trade or keep Watson quite easily.

 

[remydat]

As for the Bears they would be 21.2 million in the hole and lets project then wanting about 15 million in cap space to be able to go out and sign ARob or an elite OL. So need about 37 million in cap space. Graham, Massie and Skrine are no brainers in this scenario so looking at 20 million saved. So that about gets you what you need for Watson.

Where it get's tricky is there are only really 3 other guys that you can restructure, trade, or cut to get the money for ARob or an elite OL and that would be Fuller, Massie, and Leno. If I have Watson, I am probably trying to win now and with the draft capital used to get him, I probably need to keep Leno around as an adequate LT. I also don't want to completely gut the D so I end up restructuring Fuller and Massie kicking the can down the road where in future years I have more cap flexibility.

So basically that would keep the D largely in tact and allow us to sign ARob or an elite OL to appease Watson. In this scenario I probably keep ARob as a safety blanket for Watson as Watson is accustomed to dealing with pressure so can likely survive with Leno. Assuming I lose my first round pick this year and next, I use my 2nd and 3rd round picks to draft OL/WR/DL depending on BPA.

In short, I am in the cap of doing what it takes to get Watson if this story has legs.

 

[PrideisBears]

Do i want Watson? Yes. Do i want to give up more picks on a team Nagy might potentially still coach? No

 

[remydat]

Do i want Watson? Yes. Do i want to give up more picks on a team Nagy might potentially still coach? No

Eh, the reality is Watson is largely already a finished product and excelled under a worse coach in BOB. So I give zero fucks about Nagy in this scenario. If he is available, you absolutely have to fucking do this. Bears are a Super Bowl contender with Watson IMO as he not only helps the O but he would completely re-energize the D IMO especially if we keep Fuller and Hicks.

 

[bamainatlanta]

Can they take Pagano too?

 

[tgmxd]

As for the Bears they would be 21.2 million in the hole and lets project then wanting about 15 million in cap space to be able to go out and sign ARob or an elite OL. So need about 37 million in cap space. Graham, Massie and Skrine are no brainers in this scenario so looking at 20 million saved. So that about gets you what you need for Watson.

Where it get's tricky is there are only really 3 other guys that you can restructure, trade, or cut to get the money for ARob or an elite OL and that would be Fuller, Massie, and Leno. If I have Watson, I am probably trying to win now and with the draft capital used to get him, I probably need to keep Leno around as an adequate LT. I also don't want to completely gut the D so I end up restructuring Fuller and Massie kicking the can down the road where in future years I have more cap flexibility.

So basically that would keep the D largely in tact and allow us to sign ARob or an elite OL to appease Watson. In this scenario I probably keep ARob as a safety blanket for Watson as Watson is accustomed to dealing with pressure so can likely survive with Leno. Assuming I lose my first round pick this year and next, I use my 2nd and 3rd round picks to draft OL/WR/DL depending on BPA.

In short, I am in the cap of doing what it takes to get Watson if this story has legs.

Could they d something with Foles? There were rumors from Denver before they might want him as a backup. I have no idea how that stuff works with the salary cap

 

[PrideisBears]

Eh, the reality is Watson is largely already a finished product and excelled under a worse coach in BOB. So I give zero fucks about Nagy in this scenario. If he is available, you absolutely have to fucking do this. Bears are a Super Bowl contender with Watson IMO as he not only helps the O but he would completely re-energize the D IMO especially if we keep Fuller and Hicks.

I believe you are underestimating just how bad Nagy is and Pagano at that matter. Would we be playoff contenders? Yes imo but Nagy has me skeptical. I might have missed it in the op but what would you give up for Watson?

 

[PickSix]

Leno is an adequate LT? Tell me more.

 

[BearDownChicagoBears]

Ok as for how to make this work. Remember that trading Watson means Houston would be 23.5 million over the cap assuming a 51 man roster with any open slots filled by the draft and minimum salary guys. Realistically let's say Houston wants about 15 million in cap space so they can at least get a couple of guys in FA. So need 38.5 million in space.

Cutting Watt and Cooks are no brainers. At 17.5 and 12 million in cap saved, that is 29.5 million saved. Really from there the Texans have a lot of avenues to create space as any combination of these guys can get them past the hump.

Roby - 8.2 million saved
David J - 7 million saved
Martin - 6.2 million saved
McKinney - 7 million saved
Duke J - 5 million saved

In short, they can create a fuck ton of cap space if they desire to rebuilt given the disaster that was BOB. However, that also means they can easily retool under Watson if they wanted too by cutting some of these vets. In short, they have flexibility to go in a number of directions and can trade or keep Watson quite easily.

This is a brilliant post and I agree 99%. If I were the Texans I would trade Watson and load up on a truckload of Draft Picks. I would cut most all of those vets (Watt, Roby, Johnson, Martin, McKinney, etc.) and save myself over 50 million in cap space. I would then draft like crazy and pick up some fresh faces to help out via free agency (which right now is not an option for the Texans). I would not allow a QB, or any other player, to hold my team hostage. If Cooks wants to return to Houston like he stated last week then he would have that option. Cooks just had an 1,100 yard receiving season and deserves to come back if he wishes. I'm sure with the departures to come though that he would be more open to being traded if Watson and Fuller are both not returning in 2021.

If I were NC and I had 2-3 years to fix a mess like Houston has right now I would definitely play 'Moneyball' and roll the dice. High profile free agents aren't coming to Houston in the next few years.

 

[Spitta Andretti]

Leno is an adequate LT? Tell me more.

He's doing fine right now

 

[didshereallysaythat]

I would be excited as fuck to get Watson. At the same time though, I have no confidence in the Bears being a significant playoff contender with him in the next several years. If this was the 2018 defense, then we might win the Super Bowl. But the defense is drastically worse and their are a lot of holes on the offense that Watson would have to carry with help from Monty. We would realistically have to rebuild the defense and offensive line without 1st round picks for 2 years to be that type of contender.

Now, without Watson, we still obviously have to do all those things anyway... So this could be worth it knowing you have a top 10 QB. Possibly top 5 but I wouldn't go that far. If I was told that Watson would hold up for the next decade, this would be an easy trade.

 

[remydat]

Could they d something with Foles? There were rumors from Denver before they might want him as a backup. I have no idea how that stuff works with the salary cap

Not really necessary. They need a backup and he only counts 6.67 million. Having said that, his fully guaranteed contract is all salary so they can easily trade him to free up cap space provided they can find a taker.

 

[mecha]

Leno is an adequate LT? Tell me more.

offensive line isn't the glaring weakness anymore. it was like addition by subtraction, they got the formula correct after injuries/plague matters. LOL I think it's 50/50 QB/scheme at this juncture holding them back. the MO the entire time of the Nagy years is if it's working, stop doing it. Pagano's doing essentially the same thing on the other side, sabotaging player's careers.

 

[greg23]

what a waste of time

they arent trading him
and if they did, we dont have enough to give them nor the cap space

i'd rather have a discussion about trading for Mahomes.....winning once or twice in KC is probably boring for him and the org...they should trade him.....what would we give up to get him?

 

[remydat]

I believe you are underestimating just how bad Nagy is and Pagano at that matter. Would we be playoff contenders? Yes imo but Nagy has me skeptical. I might have missed it in the op but what would you give up for Watson?

I believe you are underestimating just how bad 4M is as a QB. Few coaches can work with a QB who is so severely limited that they can only function in play action on rollouts. Watson essentially opens up the whole playbook. I would have thought the Green Bay made this obvious as eventually the Packers shut down a lot of the roll outs and bootleg shit hence why that big 4th and 1 failed. You can't basically be that predictable on O and expect good teams not to adjust.

As for Pagano, I am counting on him being fired. Finally as for what I would give up I selected the poll option of more than 2 firsts if that is what it takes. I am thinking start with 2 firsts and work from there. 2 firsts and a 3rd with the hope that Watson gets pissy and kills some of the Texan's leverage.

 

[remydat]

I would be excited as fuck to get Watson. At the same time though, I have no confidence in the Bears being a significant playoff contender with him in the next several years. If this was the 2018 defense, then we might win the Super Bowl. But the defense is drastically worse and their are a lot of holes on the offense that Watson would have to carry with help from Monty. We would realistically have to rebuild the defense and offensive line without 1st round picks for 2 years to be that type of contender.

Now, without Watson, we still obviously have to do all those things anyway... So this could be worth it knowing you have a top 10 QB. Possibly top 5 but I wouldn't go that far. If I was told that Watson would hold up for the next decade, this would be an easy trade.

Not quite. Watson would be your first round pick so you are rebuilding without your 2022 first round pick so hardly a major issue. And I don't think the D needs to be rebuilt. Watson and the 2018 D is more like Super Bowl winners. Watson with this current D without Pagano and excited as fuck to have a real offense is serious Super Bowl contender.

Mooney probably becomes an 1k yard WR with Watson's deep ball so if you keep ARob you looking at potentially an O with 2 1k yard WRs and a 1k yard RB as Watson takes massive amounts of pressure off of the Bears run game.

 

[PrimeTime]

Houston holds all the cards and I don't see them trading Watson anytime soon. In the new agreement, the owners wanted something to discourage holdouts. In the past, a team could enforce the standard fine for each day the player holds out but then discard the fine once the player comes back or they agree to a new contract. After the new agreement was signed, players will be fined $30,000 a day for not showing up to practice or camp and after 5 days of absence the team no longer has the option to rescind the fine. If a veteran player under contract (not a rookie deal) holds out for more than 5 days, he does not get paid for that weeks game and will have to pay the $30,000 a day fine before he is reinstated. This makes it almost impossible for a player to sit out a whole year.

 

[remydat]

Houston holds all the cards and I don't see them trading Watson anytime soon. In the new agreement, the owners wanted something to discourage holdouts. In the past, a team could enforce the standard fine for each day the player holds out but then discard the fine once the player comes back or they agree to a new contract. After the new agreement was signed, players will be fined $30,000 a day for not showing up to practice or camp and after 5 days of absence the team no longer has the option to rescind the fine. If a veteran player under contract (not a rookie deal) holds out for more than 5 days, he does not get paid for that weeks game and will have to pay the $30,000 a day fine before he is reinstated. This makes it almost impossible for a player to sit out a whole year.

Don't think it would get to that. The fact having your franchise QB hold out is bad for business and at this point most of the fans wouldn't even blame Watson given how much BOB fucked things up. I wouldn't expect him to hold out the whole season. I would just expect him to hold out enough to force the issue. Having said that, yes Houston does have a lot of leverage but a disgruntled franchise QB pretty much sinks the entire franchise.

 

[Chicago4Life]

I believe you are underestimating just how bad 4M is as a QB. Few coaches can work with a QB who is so severely limited that they can only function in play action on rollouts. Watson essentially opens up the whole playbook. I would have thought the Green Bay made this obvious as eventually the Packers shut down a lot of the roll outs and bootleg shit hence why that big 4th and 1 failed. You can't basically be that predictable on O and expect good teams not to adjust.

As for Pagano, I am counting on him being fired. Finally as for what I would give up I selected the poll option of more than 2 firsts if that is what it takes. I am thinking start with 2 firsts and work from there. 2 firsts and a 3rd with the hope that Watson gets pissy and kills some of the Texan's leverage.

watson can bitch and complain but the bottom line is he is under contract, unless he is committed to sitting out the season to get traded, houston has the leverage and I dont see watson giving up his millions to force his way out.