DeShaun Watson - Crunching the Numbers

[remydat]

Now, without Watson, we still obviously have to do all those things anyway... So this could be worth it knowing you have a top 10 QB. Possibly top 5 but I wouldn't go that far. If I was told that Watson would hold up for the next decade, this would be an easy trade.

As to whether he is top 5 or top 10. Watson had the 5th best passer rating under pressure (so makes OL better), 4th best when kept clean, 2nd best with play action, 3rd best without play action, 7th best when throwing under 2.5 seconds, 2nd best over 2.5 seconds, and 5th best throwing deep.

So you are talking about a QB that is virtually top 5 in every fucking category. You will never get another chance to get a QB like this again. People whined about not playing to 4M's strengths. 4M was 15th in the NFL with 104.8 rating on play action. Watson was 2nd with 131.2. When kept clean 4M had a rating of 95.6. Watson's was 121.

So Watson is vastly superior to 4M in the areas he is supposedly good at and then destroys 4M in the areas 4M struggles. 4M's passing rating throwing deep is 29.1. Watson's is 116.1. Think about what going from 29.1 to 116.1 means to a guy like Mooney given how Watson consistently found Hopkins and Fuller deep?

 

[remydat]

watson can bitch and complain but the bottom line is he is under contract, unless he is committed to sitting out the season to get traded, houston has the leverage and I dont see watson giving up his millions to force his way out.

Yeah you are just repeating what the other guy side. At the end of the day, I think Houston caves if Watson forces the issue. You don't. Only time will tell who is right. And forcing the issue doesn't mean sitting out the season. No franchise wants their star QB undermining the organization especially not a guy from the Bellichek tree.

 

[Enasic]

Not quite. Watson would be your first round pick so you are rebuilding without your 2022 first round pick so hardly a major issue. And I don't think the D needs to be rebuilt. Watson and the 2018 D is more like Super Bowl winners. Watson with this current D without Pagano and excited as fuck to have a real offense is serious Super Bowl contender.

Mooney probably becomes an 1k yard WR with Watson's deep ball so if you keep ARob you looking at potentially an O with 2 1k yard WRs and a 1k yard RB as Watson takes massive amounts of pressure off of the Bears run game.

I'm in on Watson and I think you're right about MoonMan and Monty, but I'm with another poster - I don't want Nagy anywhere near Watson.

 

[Spitta Andretti]

Not really necessary. They need a backup and he only counts 6.67 million. Having said that, his fully guaranteed contract is all salary so they can easily trade him to free up cap space provided they can find a taker.

If Foles counts for only 6.5 million, then why would they waste any more on trying to resign Mitch? I'd rather put that towards A. Rob

 

[Chicago4Life]

Yeah you are just repeating what the other guy side. At the end of the day, I think Houston caves if Watson forces the issue. You don't. Only time will tell who is right. And forcing the issue doesn't mean sitting out the season. No franchise wants their star QB undermining the organization especially not a guy from the Bellichek tree.

Houston would be foolish to cave so quickly especially when you have a generational type of talent in watson. How would watson force the issue other than formally requesting a trade? he could sit out ota's and camps and from the there the next step would be sitting out games.

Why especially not from the Belichick tree? Has there been another personnel guy from the patriots whos been the GM thats been in a similar situation?

 

[DC]

I am probably in the minority here, but I believe we can build around Monty, Mooney and KMET. So, give Houston our next two 1st rounders and draft nothing but offensive line and defense. Find FA WR's that can step in and produce for Watson right away.

Get it done. Be bold.

 

[jtreal3]

What's really sad is, He already should have been our QB

But yeah...what ever it takes!

 

[remydat]

If Foles counts for only 6.5 million, then why would they waste any more on trying to resign Mitch? I'd rather put that towards A. Rob

No idea. Bears fans like wasting money on mediocrity.

 

[remydat]

Houston would be foolish to cave so quickly especially when you have a generational type of talent in watson. How would watson force the issue other than formally requesting a trade? he could sit out ota's and camps and from the there the next step would be sitting out games.

Why especially not from the Belichick tree? Has there been another personnel guy from the patriots whos been the GM thats been in a similar situation?

By making a lot of noise in the media. Again he is a franchise QB not some lesser player.

Because Bellichek disciples dont really like guys publicly undermining the team. Pack of the reason McDaniels traded us Cutler in the first place.

It is just not a good look for your franchise QB to be lobbying against you.

 

[Chicago4Life]

By making a lot of noise in the media. Again he is a franchise QB not some lesser player.

Because Bellichek disciples dont really like guys publicly undermining the team. Pack of the reason McDaniels traded us Cutler in the first place.

It is just not a good look for your franchise QB to be lobbying against you.

i dont find him making noise in the media will be significant, when I say significant I'm talking about antonio brown levels of noise in the media. My memory could be off but I remember Mcdaniels not deeming cutler a fit and tried to trade him without even talking to him and letting him find out via social media, after that he was undermining the team. The other difference here is that while mcdaniels had crazy level of power with Denver, with the texans I dont see NC being given the kind of power to just trade their franchise star without Mcnair's blessing.

 

[sevvy]

I'd be fine with 2 1sts + a player for Watson. But if the Bears made this trade, we'd need to really build around him. Make the OL a strength, and give him legit weapons. If that means our defense suffers because of it, so fucking be it. Welcome to the 21st century NFL.

 

[Diehardfan]

I think the big question is does Watson want to play through a full rebuild? Two years of getting his ass handed to him every week. He looked pretty pissed to me on the sidelines during the Bear game. I'm thinking that might play into this. They have no defense, they are thin at WR and RB plus they are being forced to cut vets because of cap issues. He just might be willing to force things a bit. The trouble is.....I don't think two firsts and a player will get it done.

 

[remydat]

I'm in on Watson and I think you're right about MoonMan and Monty, but I'm with another poster - I don't want Nagy anywhere near Watson.

Well I would prefer Nagy is fired but dont think he has any bearing on going after Watson.

 

[ThatGuyRyan]

watson can bitch and complain but the bottom line is he is under contract, unless he is committed to sitting out the season to get traded, houston has the leverage and I dont see watson giving up his millions to force his way out.

It’s not just Watson. He was speaking on behalf of the team, as their leader and ownership completely undermined that. Houston has a real mess in their hands.

 

[vabearsfan15]

I'll entertain the Watson talk, but if Watson has any say in a trade destination, I'm sure Chicago is near the bottom.

The reason he is largely frustrated with Houston is because of the disrespect he feels from management. So if that's the case why would he want to come here?.He has openly stated in the past that he felt it was disrespectful the Bears never even met with him or showed any sort of interest in the pred draft process. Even going as far as to insinuate our management may be racist.

But in the end, he probably has none to little say. But we would have to bend over backwards to amend the wrongs of the past.

 

[Enasic]

Well I would prefer Nagy is fired but dont think he has any bearing on going after Watson.

Yeah, I agree...unfortunately.

 

[ruprecht]

Interesting to contemplate. Thanks for crunching the numbers @remydat, that is what I was curious about

 

[didshereallysaythat]

As to whether he is top 5 or top 10. Watson had the 5th best passer rating under pressure (so makes OL better), 4th best when kept clean, 2nd best with play action, 3rd best without play action, 7th best when throwing under 2.5 seconds, 2nd best over 2.5 seconds, and 5th best throwing deep.

So you are talking about a QB that is virtually top 5 in every fucking category. You will never get another chance to get a QB like this again. People whined about not playing to 4M's strengths. 4M was 15th in the NFL with 104.8 rating on play action. Watson was 2nd with 131.2. When kept clean 4M had a rating of 95.6. Watson's was 121.

So Watson is vastly superior to 4M in the areas he is supposedly good at and then destroys 4M in the areas 4M struggles. 4M's passing rating throwing deep is 29.1. Watson's is 116.1. Think about what going from 29.1 to 116.1 means to a guy like Mooney given how Watson consistently found Hopkins and Fuller deep?

You sold me a bit. He definitely would astronomically make the Bears better. I might not be as high on the defense without Pagano as you, but atleast we have a legit chance with Watson.

Did you hear the Texans press conference when they brought in the new GM? It was a shit show. McNair was comparing Caserio to building a wall LMAO. Both of them refused to say they would not trade Watson when asked multiple times. Just said the run of the mill crap you would probably hear a new GM say about Trubisky.

 

[Bust]

what a waste of time

they arent trading him
and if they did, we dont have enough to give them nor the cap space

i'd rather have a discussion about trading for Mahomes.....winning once or twice in KC is probably boring for him and the org...they should trade him.....what would we give up to get him?

Proof he's coming

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1347354135734198273

 

[EDPeezy]

The Bears can’t afford Watson because of the Foles contract.