DSR: FO's Trestman Effect

[Xplosive]

Football Outsiders "Drive Success Rate" is one of the few stats that I love because when you look at it, the improvement of the Bears under Marc Trestman so far is undeniable. DSR "measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Take-a-knee drives at the end of a half are discarded." and it is a clear indicator of a dominant offense or defense.

So far the NFL Offensive DSR Average = .675 and the Bears are far above average ranked #8 at .719.
Compare that with 2012 Season Average of .687 when the Bears were far below average ranked #26 at .652
Of course this is only after week two of the season but for 2012 the top ten teams were:

1. NE = .787
2. DEN = .748
3. NO = .733
4. WAS = .727
5. ATL = .725
6. NYG = .723
7. SEA = .723
8. GB = .722
9. IND = .717
10. CAR = .716


I think the stat shows that Marc Trestman's Bears 2013 team is totally destroying Lovie Smith's 2012 team offensively. Defense is another story however...


So far the NFL Defensive DSR Average = .675 and the Bears are below average ranked #22 at .712
Compare the 2012 Season Average of .687 when the Bears were way above average ranked #2 at .633
Again its only been 2 weeks but the top 10 Defensive DSR for 2012 were:

1. ARI = .625
2. CHI = .633
3. HOU = .645
4. DEN = .648
5. PIT = .652
6. SF = .659
7. NYJ = .661
8. CIN = .662
9. BAL = .671
10. ATL = .671



I find it hard to believe the Bears defense will remain below average for the entire season and if they do I will be on the fire Mel Tucker wagon.
Any team that is average or above in BOTH Offensive and Defensive DSR has a 89% winning percentage and after analysis I see the Bears offense remaining above average and the Defense being no worse than average.


Championship....:fap:

 

[Nail Polish]

Tucker is already suspect IMO, but lets wait and see what shakes out during the rest of the season

 

[buckaroo2311]

Jon Hoke was left over from the Lovie era and has probably been valuable to Mel Tucker as far as what Lovie used to do in certain situations. I don't think Mel Tucker has done a bad job as much as the D-line hasn't generated the same pressure. Makes you think how good Marinelli was. The good thing is we are still generating takeaways at a really good rate. Hopefully the D-line picks it up, then we will be something really special I think.

 

[Nail Polish]

Jon Hoke was left over from the Lovie era and has probably been valuable to Mel Tucker as far as what Lovie used to do in certain situations. I don't think Mel Tucker has done a bad job as much as the D-line hasn't generated the same pressure. Makes you think how good Marinelli was. The good thing is we are still generating takeaways at a really good rate. Hopefully the D-line picks it up, then we will be something really special I think.

I know the D line has been asleep, but I've seen our LBers missing tackles also.

 

[buckaroo2311]

I know the D line has been asleep, but I've seen our LBers missing tackles also.

James Anderson has been really good, especially in coverage. I think DJ Williams should settle in after missing most of TC. There is no LB that can track a TE/WR for as long as it takes us to pressure the QB. So hopefully it works out and the D-line gets going.

 

[casinnova]

Even with peppers sitting most of the game, the dline got pressure on ponder, but he scrambled a lot and juked our crappy linebackers. I'm tired of hearing about the dline , they are not the problem at all.

 

[iueyedoc]

Jon Hoke was left over from the Lovie era and has probably been valuable to Mel Tucker as far as what Lovie used to do in certain situations. I don't think Mel Tucker has done a bad job as much as the D-line hasn't generated the same pressure. Makes you think how good Marinelli was. The good thing is we are still generating takeaways at a really good rate. Hopefully the D-line picks it up, then we will be something really special I think.

This.

The D line has been shockingly bad so far. And 18% of the entire teams cap is dedicated to 2 D-lineman with zero sacks, zero pressures and 5 total tackles to this point. I expect both to pick up the pace considerably, and that would improve the defensive DSR. I don't think that is on Tucker, as these guys didn't suddenly forget how to play their position. That said, it is his job to get these guys doing what they are capable of.

 

[Xplosive]

In 2012 Jacksonville's Defensive DSR was 29th at .718 which means that 71.8% of the time a team had a first down against Jacksonville's defense, they either scored a TD or made another first down...

I'm not saying the sky is falling yet but I will be following this closely because no way can the defense go from #2 above average for the whole 2012 season to way below average a year later.

 

[AHSIllini32]

In 2012 Jacksonville's Defensive DSR was 29th at .718 which means that 71.8% of the time a team had a first down against Jacksonville's defense, they either scored a TD or made another first down...

I'm not saying the sky is falling yet but I will be following this closely because no way can the defense go from #2 above average for the whole 2012 season to way below average a year later.

I think we've had this discussion before but how bad was jacksonville's roster in 2012?

 

[buckaroo2311]

I think we've had this discussion before but how bad was jacksonville's roster in 2012?

Yeah there is no way they are close to us in talent.

 

[Bearly]

A agree with all that but just wanted to say that last years D had one of those special years and played above their heads. They still aren't breaking too often this year and like you said, it's too early to know where they're at. Looks like both sides should still see improvement.

 

[Xplosive]

I think we've had this discussion before but how bad was jacksonville's roster in 2012?

Thats the reason I will be watching because there is no reason we should have a .712 which is real close to Jacksonville's .718 at the moment.

 

[Scoot26]

The D-Line is the cause of our defensive woes. The basics of the Cover 2 defense is get pressure from the front four and everything else falls together. Fail to get pressure and teams will pass all day all over you. Our corners and safeties were never designed to be great at coverage. They look better when there is pressure on the QB who then has to panic throw often times.

 

[Nail Polish]

Briggs is no where near as effective as he was next to old, slow Urlacher!

 

[broughtupbears]

Briggs is fat

 

[Bearfanfromnewjersey]

Maybe you should train him

 

[BearFanJohn]

Tucker is already suspect IMO, but lets wait and see what shakes out during the rest of the season

I think that is a bit early. The d-line isn't getting any push and Peppers has been awful. You may very well be right at the end season though I hope you aren't.

 

[DC]

Come on now, Briggs is playing well.

 

[xer0h0ur]

Apart from the missed tackles yea Briggs ain't doing bad.

 

[MikeDitkaPolishSausage]

I dont think any Bears fans needed stats to know that this offense is greatly improving under Marc Trestman.......Another reason stats like this are overrated and are not necessary.