Emma: Ranking the Bear's Best Options at QB

[remydat]

Put a team om his back? GTFO of here. The guy has 4 future NFL players around him at skill positions and a top 10 defense behind him.

He was the best player on the team but carried?

Did you bother to ask what I meant by that statement. He accounts for almost 70% of their yards and TDs. And in the bigger moments, he is the one that makes it happen.

Also Clemson's D is 15th in Yards at 314 ypg and 12th in points at 18.4. So they are not top 10. Against Bama, that D gave up 376 yards and 31 points so they did not perform as a top 10 D.

By contrast Watson faced, the #1 rated defense that gave up 11.8 points and 248 ypg. He accounted for 463 yards and 28 of the 35 points. He literally accounted for 90% of their offense in that game and almost doubled the yards and tripled the points that Bama's D usually gives up.

So yes he carried that team on his back. I don't think he's going to have to throw as much or run as much as he did in college.

 

[WindyCity]

Watson has a

1st round WR
3rd round TE
4th round WR
4th round RB

He beat a defense with

Top 5 DE
Top 10 ILB
2x 1st round OLB
2x 1st round CBs
3rd round DT
3rd round S

 

[remydat]

Thats the problem with a screwed up scale that is not 1:1 it makes it seem better then it is. (like I said) It creates an optical illusion

I'm assuming your talking about the 2 orange in your example closest to the 3% college side? Both of them are about 2.6-2.8% and even though they are closer to the 2% line on the pro side, because the scale is double it is also just under the 3% or about 2.6-2.8% Both are pretty much a wash..

yes thats true but the one that dropped didnt drop down into a acceptable area.. and dont forget that they all get worse year 2-3 so it still doesnt look good.

And another point is that this chart is ONLY for Qbs taken in the first round and logic would dictate that if a QB throws a lot of INT in college then they have a higher % off dropping out of the first. So looking at the first 2 rounds and comparing a bigger sample size of high int Qbs and what they do in the Pros would be a better comparison. But I have a feeling that wouldn’t fit to well in his drafting winston agenda.

Actually it shows that most Qbs INT rate goes up..

The trendline is negative so no it's not just an optical illusion.

What do you mean it didn't drop down to acceptable area? You have no idea what is acceptable because interceptions don't tell the whole story. a 3% interception rate with a 2/1 TD to interception ration is more than acceptable. So you are speaking out of your ass. There is no defined acceptable rate. The Int rate needs to be looked at in the context of the overall QB performance.

If you want to look at QBs beyond the first round then go do it. I presume it looked at QBs in the first round as they are more likely to start their first year. And frankly Prescott threw less interceptions in the NFL than he did in college as he only had 4. Again, this is why it's not a good predictor.

Finally, yes it shows most QBs INT rate goes up but it also shows that QBs with high interception rates in college don't increase they interception rates in the NFL. In fact, they have a 50% chance of lowering it. Again, you logic here is flawed because it should be self evident that the guys with the lower interception rates in college are the ones who are unable to sustain such low interception rates in the NFL. The guys with higher rates tend to remain steady or decline a bit which is fine provided their production offsets their interceptions.

You are acting like only QBs with low interception rates are successful in the NFL. This is just flawed logic. If you want to go do some research to prove your point then by all means do so but the current research doesn't support your point. That is all.

 

[remydat]

Watson has a

1st round WR
3rd round TE
4th round WR
4th round RB

He beat a defense with

Top 5 DE
Top 10 ILB
2x 1st round OLB
2x 1st round CBs
3rd round DT
3rd round S

He didn't have a first round WR last year and he still store up Bama and would have beat them if Clemson's supposedly top 10 D didn't give up 45 points.

He actually scored more against Bama last year without a 1st round WR than he did with one.

Last year he had a 7th round WR (Peake) instead of a 1st round WR. The rest of the guys are the same but I'll wait and see where these guys are drafted as people rise and fall all the time on draft day.

 

[PolarBear]

Lol, I was the one that broke down all his interceptions both years in this thread.

http://www.chicitysports.com/forum/showthread.php/85314-The-Book-on-Deshaun-Watson

Here is what I posted. Feel free to discuss.

1. I can't say it's a good decision. Yes, the WR has 1-on-1 coverage but it's not like he has a step on his man at all. You can't just throw a ball up everytime your WR has 1-on-1 coverage. Poorly placed ball as well.

2. Miscommunication. DB comes on the blitz, speeds up Watson decision making. I would say that Williams is the one to blame because if this is an option route, he ran the wrong one. That being said, he is double covered and the CB probably could have still made a play on the ball. If he scans the middle of the field, he has a guy running free, likely due to that DB coming on the blitz. I tend to think that if a DB is coming from on side, that's the direction I want to go in.

3. Watson's throwing motion starts as the WR cuts into his route. Looks like a cover two defense so the read is right but the execution is wrong. Doesn't lead his receiver and that's why the safety is able to make the play.

4. Miscommunication. Don't see how in the world that was meant to be a curl route. That ball was thrown way to far in that case. Who knows who is at fault here.

5. Decision is good, ball placement is horrible.

6. WR drop obviously.

7. In what world is this guy open? Watson just has this thing where if a guy is 1 vs 1 he is going to give them a chance no matter how good the coverage is. The only way he makes this play is if it's a back shoulder throw on the money. He just looks like he lofted it up there.

8. It's a weird coverage but you can't do that in the NFL. You say it's an athletic play in college. That's standard in the NFL. That's the CB by the way who picks him off underneath. Bad ball placement, not a great decision but a play could have been made.

9. Terrible throw. Look at where the ball is going, the WR actually has to come back to that ball to make a play on it. He is just trying to fit a ball where he simply cannot. He saw the coverage, that's why he didn't throw that ball to the sideline where that route would have ended up. That's a play where I think you just live to fight another day. Use your legs or throw it out of bounds.

10. Sees the CB, looks like he is coming on a CB blitz pre-snap. It's the right read to go in that direction but a terrible post snap read. He had alreayd made up his mind before the snap where he was going. DC's in the NFL will feast on that.

11. Bad decision. Simple as that. First off, it's a two deep safety look. You have two WR's running slant/post routes to the middle of the field by the looks of it. You choose to throw deep to the outside? Anyway, he isn't expecting anything by the CB who makes the play. If you are expecting the CB to play the slant, you wait until he makes a play on it.

12. Terrible throw.

13. Terrible decision. Not so clutch in this game. Just trying to do too much and trying to make a play when it clearly isn't there. It's 2nd and goal, throw it away and live to fight another day.

14. I actually think Leggett could have made a better play at this ball. Good decision. Pass isn't great though.

15. Tipped ball. No fault here really.

16. WR slips but ball is underthrown. He seems to struggle on these out routes. He doesn't get the ball towards the sideline.

17. Good play by Hooker. Dude can run.

All in all, I don't think you can say that he had an abnormal amount of INT's caused by lack support from the guys around him. Every QB probably has a similar number of interceptions on their record where it has been the fault of a WR.

I think he displays just as many bad decisions as he does bad ball placement. He makes up his mind pre-snap way too much so he falls for any type of disguise whether it be from a blitz or a disguised coverage. He seems to have troubles leading his receivers which is concerning. He also stares his guy down, doesn't seem to look off guys or scan the entire field.

Any QB can progress and get better. Watson's accuracy and decision making can improve but those two things might be the most important aspects of being a QB in the NFL.

 

[remydat]

Just to clarify, if you read my comments on those Ints, at no point did I blame his Ints on lack of support. I specifically say the bulk of those are accuracy/ball placement issues. I would be more concerned if I saw a lot of throwing in into double coverage or just terrible reads but I really didn't see a lot of that. I think a lot of those Ints are fixable with better technique and I think Watson is going to bust his ass to improve his technique and mechanics.

As for the throwing to a guy in one on one, that's generally a part of Clemson's offense. Watson throws a lot of back shoulder passes many of which he completes and in a couple of these instances he simply doesn't execute the play well but I wouldn't necessarily call those bad decisions. A lot of this depends on down and distance. In any event that is something I think gets cleaned up quite easily in the NFL but I would say if there is no safety help and you are throwing to a 6-3 AJ or 6-4 Meredith in single coverage and the down and distance is favorable then by all means take your shot. I don't want a guy like Hoyer who is just going to take the safe pass. He just needs to learn to balance that with moving the chains.

 

[run and shoot]

1. I can't say it's a good decision. Yes, the WR has 1-on-1 coverage but it's not like he has a step on his man at all. You can't just throw a ball up everytime your WR has 1-on-1 coverage. Poorly placed ball as well.

2. Miscommunication. DB comes on the blitz, speeds up Watson decision making. I would say that Williams is the one to blame because if this is an option route, he ran the wrong one. That being said, he is double covered and the CB probably could have still made a play on the ball. If he scans the middle of the field, he has a guy running free, likely due to that DB coming on the blitz. I tend to think that if a DB is coming from on side, that's the direction I want to go in.

3. Watson's throwing motion starts as the WR cuts into his route. Looks like a cover two defense so the read is right but the execution is wrong. Doesn't lead his receiver and that's why the safety is able to make the play.

4. Miscommunication. Don't see how in the world that was meant to be a curl route. That ball was thrown way to far in that case. Who knows who is at fault here.

5. Decision is good, ball placement is horrible.

6. WR drop obviously.

7. In what world is this guy open? Watson just has this thing where if a guy is 1 vs 1 he is going to give them a chance no matter how good the coverage is. The only way he makes this play is if it's a back shoulder throw on the money. He just looks like he lofted it up there.

8. It's a weird coverage but you can't do that in the NFL. You say it's an athletic play in college. That's standard in the NFL. That's the CB by the way who picks him off underneath. Bad ball placement, not a great decision but a play could have been made.

9. Terrible throw. Look at where the ball is going, the WR actually has to come back to that ball to make a play on it. He is just trying to fit a ball where he simply cannot. He saw the coverage, that's why he didn't throw that ball to the sideline where that route would have ended up. That's a play where I think you just live to fight another day. Use your legs or throw it out of bounds.

10. Sees the CB, looks like he is coming on a CB blitz pre-snap. It's the right read to go in that direction but a terrible post snap read. He had alreayd made up his mind before the snap where he was going. DC's in the NFL will feast on that.

11. Bad decision. Simple as that. First off, it's a two deep safety look. You have two WR's running slant/post routes to the middle of the field by the looks of it. You choose to throw deep to the outside? Anyway, he isn't expecting anything by the CB who makes the play. If you are expecting the CB to play the slant, you wait until he makes a play on it.

12. Terrible throw.

13. Terrible decision. Not so clutch in this game. Just trying to do too much and trying to make a play when it clearly isn't there. It's 2nd and goal, throw it away and live to fight another day.

14. I actually think Leggett could have made a better play at this ball. Good decision. Pass isn't great though.

15. Tipped ball. No fault here really.

16. WR slips but ball is underthrown. He seems to struggle on these out routes. He doesn't get the ball towards the sideline.

17. Good play by Hooker. Dude can run.

All in all, I don't think you can say that he had an abnormal amount of INT's caused by lack support from the guys around him. Every QB probably has a similar number of interceptions on their record where it has been the fault of a WR.

I think he displays just as many bad decisions as he does bad ball placement. He makes up his mind pre-snap way too much so he falls for any type of disguise whether it be from a blitz or a disguised coverage. He seems to have troubles leading his receivers which is concerning. He also stares his guy down, doesn't seem to look off guys or scan the entire field.

Any QB can progress and get better. Watson's accuracy and decision making can improve but those two things might be the most important aspects of being a QB in the NFL.

Can u analyze Watson's accuracy and decision with regard to his 41 TD passes.

 

[Adipost]

1. Watson.....This guy is a winner, leader, clutch player in big games ( see NC vs 'bama) and a smart Qb. If he's there at 3, ya take him and build around him.

2. Kizer.......tough situation at N.D. Only18picks in 660attps.

3. Taylor.....low turnovers, smart with protecting da football (94.2 rating as the Bills’ starter, 37 touchdowns to just 12 interceptions.....without any real "O" talent)

4. Mahomes......did real well with limited resources ( there's a article about this)

5. Hoyer....keep him as a vet bridge

6. Shaw.....let him compete. ( I like this guys mobility and play-making ability. Lets groom him and 1 day, dangle him in front of teams the way N.E. and G.B. do)

--------

the others

Cousins.....choked vs. the Giants in his last game. Failed to give Wash. their first back-to-back playoff berths since Joe Gibbs’ final season
Garoppolo.....no to a backup with 1 1/2 games and a injury. Other N.E. backups with more exp. have been avg.
Trubisky........lost to teams he shouda' beat in college and didn't look impressive in his bowl game ( I wanted to see more from a guy with 1 season of exp. , who suppose to be "1st round qb")

So you rank Shaw ahead of Cousins/Garoppolo/Trubisky?

 

[dbldrew]

Finally, yes it shows most QBs INT rate goes up but it also shows that QBs with high interception rates in college don't increase they interception rates in the NFL. In fact, they have a 50% chance of lowering it.

The problem is you just arbitrarily picked the 3% line that only has 4 Qbs

If we look at Watson his 579 att and 17 int puts him UNDER the 3% line. Which puts him in the 75% chance of not improving his INT in the pros.

And if he managed to throw 1 less INT that increases the pool to compare even more and he would be a bout 80% chance of not improving and 16 INT is still a lot of INT..

I'm sorry but the data shows that history has shown that guys like Watson will throw a lot of INT in the pros.

You are acting like only QBs with low interception rates are successful in the NFL. This is just flawed logic. If you want to go do some research to prove your point then by all means do so but the current research doesn't support your point. That is all.

depends on what you definition of successful is.. a guy like cutler that is good enough to start? Or a QB that you can build a championship team around?

 

[remydat]

Lol Watson's interception percent is 2.9% so no I didn't arbitrarily pick that line. Are we pretending 2.9% isn't basically 3%?

I listed the guys with the top 10 interceptions. I would say 7 out of 10 of them are successful QBs. If you disagree then go look at the list and tell me which ones you don't think are successful.

 

[dbldrew]

Lol Watson's interception percent is 2.9% so no I didn't arbitrarily pick that line. Are we pretending 2.9% isn't basically 3%?

I listed the guys with the top 10 interceptions. I would say 7 out of 10 of them are successful QBs. If you disagree then go look at the list and tell me which ones you don't think are successful.

You picked only 4 Qbs as your cut off which is a small sample size and not accurate. Moving the line back to include guys like watson increases the number of Qbs with similar INT% and gives a larger pool of Qbs to analyze data.

Sample size matters, purposefully using a small sample size to make your point is not at all accurate.

For example the 3 players with the highest passer rating last year was..
Doug Baldwin
Marqise Lee
Willie Sneed
they all had a 158.3 Passer rating..

So I guess that they are 3 of the best QB? Or do you think that there 1 pass is way to small of a sample size?

 

[remydat]

I didn't pick 4 QBS. I picked the INT rate that most resembles Watson and it happened to only have 4 QBs.

And trying to compare a player with 1 pass with 4 QBs with full season data is stupid.

I agree it's a small sample size which is why you can't claim to know how he will do in the NFL. You have no proof for your assertion.

Again what the data shows is that the trendline is negative. Feel free to do some more research but it is what it is.

 

[dbldrew]

Again what the data shows is that the trendline is negative. Feel free to do some more research but it is what it is.

Again it shows the opposite not sure how 90% of Qbs not decreasing there INT in the pros is hard for you to understand

 

[remydat]

Because you 90% is inflated. Here was the modified graph you provided.

There are 13 QBs with college rates at or below 2%. Only 1 of them maintained or had a lower rate than in college. It's the guy represented by the light orange circle whose rate was about 1.5% in college and between 1 and 1.5% in the NFL. That's only 8%. So the conclusion here is that low interception rates in college are typically not sustainable in the NFL. It is also becomes clear that the light orange circles are guys with lower or roughly the same interception rates between college and the NFL.

If you look at the guys that are above 2% but below 2.5%, there are 10 guys. Of the 10, 3 of them (again represented by light orange circle) maintain or had lower rates so that's 30%.

If you look at guys with 2.5% of above, then it's 14 QBs and 5 of them (2 orange circles and you3 3 green circles) maintain or have lower rates. That's 36%.

And if you just look at the guys at 3% or higher, it's 2 out of 4 or 50%.

So the conclusion drawn here is that the higher your interception rate in college, the more likely you are to maintain or lower it in the NFL. Your 90% number is off. There are 9 out 37 QBs that maintain or lower their rate which means 76% did not. And again that 76% is not evenly distributed. It's 92% if your rate was 2% or less, 70% if if was between 2 and 2.5%, 64% if it was above 2.5% and 50% if it was above 3%. Watson is clearly in the 2.5% camp or above so there is no reason to include the numbers from the QBs that are 2% or less because his profile bears no resemblance to them and they overwhelming skew the numbers because that low interception rate is not sustainable in the NFL.

 

[remydat]

And just to complete the analysis, here are the other 2 graphs based on NEP which is a much better measure of overall performance than just NFL interceptions.

8 of 20 guys between 2% and 3% had a positive NEP.

The 3 year graph shows even more guys whose rates were between 2% and 3% who had NEP above 0 as it's 10 out of 20 guys. So interceptions don't tell the whole story.

Taken together the guys above 3% struggle to maintain good NEPs. However, the guys between 2 and 3% it's basically 50/50. So as I said at the start, interceptions are not a good predictor of NFL interceptions or production. Unless you are talking about the guys sitting clearly above 3% and even then that's debatable due to small sample size and the fact this was taken before Winston and pretty sure Winston has positive NEP despite an interception rate well beyond 3%. So he would make it one success story out of 5 if we added him to the graph.

 

[WindyCity]

Mark Schofield

Every time I think about Watson I come back to these numbers:
138 of 205 (67.3%), 1,615 yards, 16 TDs, 2 INTs.
His career 4th quarter stats.

Trubisky: 115 of 171 (67.2%) 13 TDs 5 INTs
Mahomes: 156 of 253 (61.6%) 16 TDs 8 INTs
Kizer: 97 of 169 (57.3%) 10 TDs 2 INTs

 

[dbldrew]

Because you 90% is inflated. Here was the modified graph you provided.

There are 13 QBs with college rates at or below 2%. Only 1 of them maintained or had a lower rate than in college. It's the guy represented by the light orange circle whose rate was about 1.5% in college and between 1 and 1.5% in the NFL. That's only 8%. So the conclusion here is that low interception rates in college are typically not sustainable in the NFL. It is also becomes clear that the light orange circles are guys with lower or roughly the same interception rates between college and the NFL.

If you look at the guys that are above 2% but below 2.5%, there are 10 guys. Of the 10, 3 of them (again represented by light orange circle) maintain or had lower rates so that's 30%.

If you look at guys with 2.5% of above, then it's 14 QBs and 5 of them (2 orange circles and you3 3 green circles) maintain or have lower rates. That's 36%.

And if you just look at the guys at 3% or higher, it's 2 out of 4 or 50%.

So the conclusion drawn here is that the higher your interception rate in college, the more likely you are to maintain or lower it in the NFL. Your 90% number is off. There are 9 out 37 QBs that maintain or lower their rate which means 76% did not. And again that 76% is not evenly distributed. It's 92% if your rate was 2% or less, 70% if if was between 2 and 2.5%, 64% if it was above 2.5% and 50% if it was above 3%. Watson is clearly in the 2.5% camp or above so there is no reason to include the numbers from the QBs that are 2% or less because his profile bears no resemblance to them and they overwhelming skew the numbers because that low interception rate is not sustainable in the NFL.

The premise that if you throw a lot of INT in college you will also throw a lot in the pros, means you cant use the orange data points in your argument because he hasn’t improved his INT.. they are still high.. the fact that you are using that to show improvement is absurd.

You cherry picking a few data points to try to make an argument that a High INT QB is somehow desirable is also absurd.

Here is the facts.. 90% of QBs do not improve there INT% year one.. and it gets WORSE for a 3 year average.

But go ahead and cherry pick stats to make your case for drafting a QB and I will just counter with cherry picking stats for trading for one of the 3 WR who have a perfect Qbr..

 

[remydat]

Except I never used them to show improvement. I said college interceptions are not a good predictor of NFL interceptions or production. That statement says nothing about improvement.

And 50% of QBa with 2-3% college interception rates ended up with positive NEP after 3 years in the NFL so not sure how that's worse.

Nor am I suggesting a guy with a lot of interceptions is desirable. I'm suggesting a guy with 41 TDS, a fuck ton of passing and rushing yards, and 2 NC appearances is desirable. A guy who is clutch as fuck as Windy's stats with his 16 TDs and 2 interceptions in the 4th quarter is desirable.

His interceptions while a concern don't bother me because the stats suggest that interceptions alone are not a good measure of his NFL potential. You seem confused by this point as if you are unaware of the fact his other stats matter.

 

[run and shoot]

So you rank Shaw ahead of Cousins/Garoppolo/Trubisky?

No......I'm just taking in to account all things considered i.e. $$ etc. whats best for the Bears. When u get a chance compare the college careers of Shaw vs. Trubisky come back and tell what u think.

 

[PolarBear]

No......I'm just taking in to account all things considered i.e. $$ etc. whats best for the Bears. When u get a chance compare the college careers of Shaw vs. Trubisky come back and tell what u think.

Please, please, please tell me you aren't going to make an argument for Connor Shaw over Mitch Trubisky...