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The other day, Dwight Howard sent the hearts of Bulls fans aflutter with comments that seemed to open the door for him to join his adidas comrade Derrick Rose in Chicago.
The Bulls have won more regular-season games than any other team since the beginning of last season. Their core is young and ascending. The chemistry on the court and in the locker room is impeccable -- the kind of environment coaches dream about. But the problem is that there is an awfully big hurdle perched in the sands of South Beach. Every transaction the Bulls make has to be a response to this question: Will this help us beat the Miami Heat?
The Howard-to-the-Bulls chatter certainly falls under the heading of "soft news," but nevertheless, the notion is interesting from a basketball perspective. Howard is the best center in the game, but Chicago is already a championship-level team. Do you dare mess with that?
Any trade Chicago might make for Howard would involve Joakim Noah going back to the Magic. Orlando would need a young center and Chicago would need to move Noah's dollars. There has been some confusion about whether Noah is subject to base year compensation, which would mean he could not be traded before March 1. According to the team, however, Noah is not a BYC player. That means he can be traded at any time.
Also, Orlando is going to want draft picks, expiring contracts, cost-controlled rotation players, cash and ready-made replacements for Howard. No team can fulfill all these needs; the Bulls can fulfill quite a few. In each of the subsequent scenarios, throw in Chicago's first-round picks in 2012 and '14, plus the valuable protected pick Charlotte owes the Bulls from the Tyrus Thomas trade, a selection that becomes unprotected in 2016, as well as $3 million in cash per the new CBA.
Lastly, the Bulls aren't going to break up a core that might already be good enough to win a title unless they get an ironclad assurance that Howard will sign long-term. So assume that Howard agrees to an extend-and-trade deal and isn't looking to maximize dollars. The win gains referenced in each scenario are set by our SCHOENE projection system.
1. The megadeal
Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Ryan Anderson for Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler, plus picks and cash
The salaries work on this deal even though it would put the Bulls over the luxury-tax line. The hang-up would be Anderson, who is far too good to be included as a throw-in on a trade for the second time in his career. However, the Bulls would be well-advised to insist on the sharp-shooting forward.
[+] EnlargeDwight Howard, Ryan Anderson
Debby Wong/US PresswireWith a Howard trade scenario, the Bulls could insist on power forward Ryan Anderson.
The Bulls would likely hold onto Turkoglu for the rest of this season, and perhaps try to flip him this summer. One of Chicago's long-term issues is that it has four players signed to multiyear deals that will pay eight figures per season. It's tough to manage a cap that way, and there are eventual extensions for Gibson (unless he's dealt) and Omer Asik to consider. Trading Turkoglu helps Orlando get rid of a player it won't need, especially after Howard is gone, but can't amnesty because it burned that privilege on Gilbert Arenas. Chicago wouldn't have that problem.
Our post-lockout projections set the Bulls' 82-game baseline at 58.7 wins. If this version of the trade had taken place before the season, the baseline would have been revised upward to 65.8 wins, up 7.1 games. That's enough to vault the Bulls over Miami and puts them in the Air Jordan class of Bulls squads. Orlando has chronically undervalued Anderson, but his play this season may have finally cast aside any reservations they may have had about him. His inclusion could be the deal-breaker.
The revamped Bulls would move from fifth to third in projected Offensive Rating and remain first in projected Defensive Rating. Actually, that is a factor to consider for Chicago. Howard may be the game's best defender, but it's the Bulls that feature the game's best team defense -- with or without him. In each proposed trade in this piece, Chicago remains at No. 1 in projected team defense. In any potential Chicago-Orlando deal, the Bulls have all the leverage. Chicago is a championship contender as is and would only be attempting to improve at the margins. Those marginal wins might be the difference between beating Miami or not, but even without them, the Bulls are close enough to the Heat to have around a 40-45 percent chance to emerge in a seven-game series. In other words, there is no reason for the Bulls to be timid in these negotiations. If they are going to move Noah, Gibson AND Deng, then Anderson has to be part of the return.
2. The Carlos Boozer version
Howard and Turkoglu for Noah, Boozer and Butler, plus picks and cash
The Bulls don't get Anderson in this version of the trade, but that's offset by not sending Deng to Orlando. That in itself makes this deal more realistic, because Orlando would have to pry Deng out of Tom Thibodeau's cold, dead hands anyway. The Bulls improve by 4.1 wins, putting them basically in a dead heat with Miami.
[+] EnlargeCarlos Boozer
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty ImagesIf the Magic think Carlos Boozer has gas left in the tank, his inclusion in a Howard deal works.
Chicago still jumps to third in projected Offensive Rating, with Howard's field goal percentage more than offsetting the loss of offensive rebounding that comes from dealing Noah and Boozer. From Orlando's standpoint, not only does it get its new center in Noah, but Boozer gives it an interior scorer that would otherwise be lacking. Orlando doesn't get much long-term cap relief in any of these deals, but in place of that, Chicago can offer usable rotation players.
In fact, Chicago can offer more legit talent than any of Howard's other suitors. The wild card here is that it's hard to say what Boozer's value is perceived to be around the league. This trade assumes that Smith sees Boozer as a bedrock kind of talent.
If Boozer really is that good, then it's just barely, and his days at that level are dwindling fast. In fact, because of Chicago's aforementioned cap issues and need to extend Gibson and Asik, there is a real possibility that Boozer will eventually be waived via the amnesty clause. This trade would allow the Bulls to side-step that messy situation -- if Smith values Boozer.
3. The 'simple' version
Howard for Noah, Taj Gibson, C.J. Watson picks and cash
Trades get so complicated in the NBA that sometimes you can overthink them. By just trading Noah and Gibson, the Bulls may be able to swing a deal. They wouldn't want to include Watson, but another player would have to go to Orlando to make the salaries work. The Bulls' bench depth will allow Thibodeau to get by just fine without Watson to run his second unit.
The 6.1 wins the Bulls gain on paper look great, but it's no slam dunk that the deal would work out so well. Any trade that involves both Noah and Gibson robs Thibodeau of much of his team's defensive versatility. He'd be left with Howard and Asik -- both true centers -- and Boozer as his only big men. There would be no backup for Boozer, so you're left shopping for the likes of Fabricio Oberto or perhaps a stretch 4 to fill out your rotation.
The key would be how Boozer and Howard fit together on the court. They tend to occupy different spaces on the floor. Howard can operate on the block or as the roll man after setting ball screens for Derrick Rose. However, if the matchups are right, Boozer can set the screen and pop out for his nice face-up jumper. Heck, Thibodeau could use them in double-screen sets, which not only gives Rose all kinds of options, but also clears the lane for his whirling-dervish finishes.
The Bulls have won more regular-season games than any other team since the beginning of last season. Their core is young and ascending. The chemistry on the court and in the locker room is impeccable -- the kind of environment coaches dream about. But the problem is that there is an awfully big hurdle perched in the sands of South Beach. Every transaction the Bulls make has to be a response to this question: Will this help us beat the Miami Heat?
The Howard-to-the-Bulls chatter certainly falls under the heading of "soft news," but nevertheless, the notion is interesting from a basketball perspective. Howard is the best center in the game, but Chicago is already a championship-level team. Do you dare mess with that?
Any trade Chicago might make for Howard would involve Joakim Noah going back to the Magic. Orlando would need a young center and Chicago would need to move Noah's dollars. There has been some confusion about whether Noah is subject to base year compensation, which would mean he could not be traded before March 1. According to the team, however, Noah is not a BYC player. That means he can be traded at any time.
Also, Orlando is going to want draft picks, expiring contracts, cost-controlled rotation players, cash and ready-made replacements for Howard. No team can fulfill all these needs; the Bulls can fulfill quite a few. In each of the subsequent scenarios, throw in Chicago's first-round picks in 2012 and '14, plus the valuable protected pick Charlotte owes the Bulls from the Tyrus Thomas trade, a selection that becomes unprotected in 2016, as well as $3 million in cash per the new CBA.
Lastly, the Bulls aren't going to break up a core that might already be good enough to win a title unless they get an ironclad assurance that Howard will sign long-term. So assume that Howard agrees to an extend-and-trade deal and isn't looking to maximize dollars. The win gains referenced in each scenario are set by our SCHOENE projection system.
1. The megadeal
Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Ryan Anderson for Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler, plus picks and cash
The salaries work on this deal even though it would put the Bulls over the luxury-tax line. The hang-up would be Anderson, who is far too good to be included as a throw-in on a trade for the second time in his career. However, the Bulls would be well-advised to insist on the sharp-shooting forward.
[+] EnlargeDwight Howard, Ryan Anderson
Debby Wong/US PresswireWith a Howard trade scenario, the Bulls could insist on power forward Ryan Anderson.
The Bulls would likely hold onto Turkoglu for the rest of this season, and perhaps try to flip him this summer. One of Chicago's long-term issues is that it has four players signed to multiyear deals that will pay eight figures per season. It's tough to manage a cap that way, and there are eventual extensions for Gibson (unless he's dealt) and Omer Asik to consider. Trading Turkoglu helps Orlando get rid of a player it won't need, especially after Howard is gone, but can't amnesty because it burned that privilege on Gilbert Arenas. Chicago wouldn't have that problem.
Our post-lockout projections set the Bulls' 82-game baseline at 58.7 wins. If this version of the trade had taken place before the season, the baseline would have been revised upward to 65.8 wins, up 7.1 games. That's enough to vault the Bulls over Miami and puts them in the Air Jordan class of Bulls squads. Orlando has chronically undervalued Anderson, but his play this season may have finally cast aside any reservations they may have had about him. His inclusion could be the deal-breaker.
The revamped Bulls would move from fifth to third in projected Offensive Rating and remain first in projected Defensive Rating. Actually, that is a factor to consider for Chicago. Howard may be the game's best defender, but it's the Bulls that feature the game's best team defense -- with or without him. In each proposed trade in this piece, Chicago remains at No. 1 in projected team defense. In any potential Chicago-Orlando deal, the Bulls have all the leverage. Chicago is a championship contender as is and would only be attempting to improve at the margins. Those marginal wins might be the difference between beating Miami or not, but even without them, the Bulls are close enough to the Heat to have around a 40-45 percent chance to emerge in a seven-game series. In other words, there is no reason for the Bulls to be timid in these negotiations. If they are going to move Noah, Gibson AND Deng, then Anderson has to be part of the return.
2. The Carlos Boozer version
Howard and Turkoglu for Noah, Boozer and Butler, plus picks and cash
The Bulls don't get Anderson in this version of the trade, but that's offset by not sending Deng to Orlando. That in itself makes this deal more realistic, because Orlando would have to pry Deng out of Tom Thibodeau's cold, dead hands anyway. The Bulls improve by 4.1 wins, putting them basically in a dead heat with Miami.
[+] EnlargeCarlos Boozer
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty ImagesIf the Magic think Carlos Boozer has gas left in the tank, his inclusion in a Howard deal works.
Chicago still jumps to third in projected Offensive Rating, with Howard's field goal percentage more than offsetting the loss of offensive rebounding that comes from dealing Noah and Boozer. From Orlando's standpoint, not only does it get its new center in Noah, but Boozer gives it an interior scorer that would otherwise be lacking. Orlando doesn't get much long-term cap relief in any of these deals, but in place of that, Chicago can offer usable rotation players.
In fact, Chicago can offer more legit talent than any of Howard's other suitors. The wild card here is that it's hard to say what Boozer's value is perceived to be around the league. This trade assumes that Smith sees Boozer as a bedrock kind of talent.
If Boozer really is that good, then it's just barely, and his days at that level are dwindling fast. In fact, because of Chicago's aforementioned cap issues and need to extend Gibson and Asik, there is a real possibility that Boozer will eventually be waived via the amnesty clause. This trade would allow the Bulls to side-step that messy situation -- if Smith values Boozer.
3. The 'simple' version
Howard for Noah, Taj Gibson, C.J. Watson picks and cash
Trades get so complicated in the NBA that sometimes you can overthink them. By just trading Noah and Gibson, the Bulls may be able to swing a deal. They wouldn't want to include Watson, but another player would have to go to Orlando to make the salaries work. The Bulls' bench depth will allow Thibodeau to get by just fine without Watson to run his second unit.
The 6.1 wins the Bulls gain on paper look great, but it's no slam dunk that the deal would work out so well. Any trade that involves both Noah and Gibson robs Thibodeau of much of his team's defensive versatility. He'd be left with Howard and Asik -- both true centers -- and Boozer as his only big men. There would be no backup for Boozer, so you're left shopping for the likes of Fabricio Oberto or perhaps a stretch 4 to fill out your rotation.
The key would be how Boozer and Howard fit together on the court. They tend to occupy different spaces on the floor. Howard can operate on the block or as the roll man after setting ball screens for Derrick Rose. However, if the matchups are right, Boozer can set the screen and pop out for his nice face-up jumper. Heck, Thibodeau could use them in double-screen sets, which not only gives Rose all kinds of options, but also clears the lane for his whirling-dervish finishes.
