FREE AGENT Signings

[TC in Mississippi]

With two guys in Schwarber and Bryant one if whom might have to move to LF I really don't want to see a full time guy signed for the position. That would basically force you to deal an infielder, not out if strength but necessity. Now if Baez doesn't improve fine, Castro probably moves to second in 2016, Russell at SS and Bryant sticks at third but if Baez pans out? Same thing with Schwarber. Say the kid knocks the cover off again in the minors but his catching doesn't impress, another log jam. Now one if these "problems" are probably inevitable but why position block with the likes of a Melky Cabrerra when there are a lot of right handed platoon options to pair with Coghlan?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Why are you worried about Schwarber? He isn't going to sniff Wrigley this season. A LF free agent isn't going to impact Schwarber one way or the other. When/if he is ready, they will trade the FA.

 

[beckdawg]

With two guys in Schwarber and Bryant one if whom might have to move to LF I really don't want to see a full time guy signed for the position. That would basically force you to deal an infielder, not out if strength but necessity. Now if Baez doesn't improve fine, Castro probably moves to second in 2016, Russell at SS and Bryant sticks at third but if Baez pans out? Same thing with Schwarber. Say the kid knocks the cover off again in the minors but his catching doesn't impress, another log jam. Now one if these "problems" are probably inevitable but why position block with the likes of a Melky Cabrerra when there are a lot of right handed platoon options to pair with Coghlan?

I don't think you "sign" a full time guy. However, the previously mentioned Bourn makes a lot of sense in trade as giving you the same sort of thing you would be getting with a signing on a shorter term. I've also heard rumblings again of the dodgers wanting to move at least one of Kemp/Crawford/Either. Both the Indians and the Dodgers would make sense for bad contract swaps for Jackson. The dodgers have Kershaw, Greinke, Ryu, and Haren under contract for 2015. They lost Beckett to retirement, Roberto Hernandez to FA, Kevin Correia to FA, and might lose Chad Billingsley to FA($14 mil team option/$3 mil buyout). Jackson is by no means "good" but he's a reliable innings eater that has peripherals that suggest he should have been better the past 2 years.

As a hypothetical example, would Jackson for Carl Crawford + $20 mil be that bad for either side? From the dodgers perspective, they turn Crawford into a position they are likely going to have to address to some extent and open a place for Peterson. They would also save about $20 mil in contract difference. The cubs would be getting rid of Jackson and would basically have Crawford for 3 years $42.25(~$14 mil per). Perhaps you could argue that's a bit pricey but it's short term and Crawford's been worth 2.9 fWAR(469 PAs) and 2.5 fWAR(370 PAs) the past two seasons. Given the 3 years, Bryant's probably still at 3B in 3 years though going farther might not be. Soler is probably your RF. Almora is probably 2 years away best case and more probably 3. Alcantara is going to need some playing time but he's versatile enough to play more of a utility role if they so chose. Schwarber is probably on a similar time frame as Almora.

Crawford is also unlikely to entirely fall off a cliff. If you take Ichiro as a recent corollary, he put up 6.0 fWAR, 4.4 fWAR, and 5.1 fWAR between 33-35. Crawford has more injury concerns but if you hypothetically say 3, 2.5, and 2 fWARs over those seasons you probably get your money out of him and could even potentially deal him to a cash strapped team like say the Royals or Pitt in 2017 if you ate a little bit of his money.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Why are you worried about Schwarber? He isn't going to sniff Wrigley this season. A LF free agent isn't going to impact Schwarber one way or the other. When/if he is ready, they will trade the FA.

I think if they sign Martin and Schwarber is hitting lights out he could be in left by September, certainly to start 2016. Yes, it would blow their false argument of two full years in the minors as their reason for keeping Bryant down, but I don't think they care. Everyone knew that was bullshit anyway and it was about maximizing years. Schwarber is not represented by Scott Boras. If he's hitting and the catcher idea is over with the signing of Martjn he comes up. Plus it's not all about Schwarber either , most scouts outside the Cubs organization don't think Bryant is a third baseman. Now he could also play right as well as left but you have Soler there. I just don't see why you fill a position where you have an acceptable answer with Coghlan and a platoon player until your final decision gets there.

We seem to be all coming at this from two different viewpoints; one how to you assemble the best team to compete in 2015 or 2015 is a learning and observation year where winning would be nice but not required. I'm on the latter.

 

[Parade_Rain]

I think if they sign Martin and Schwarber is hitting lights out he could be in left by September, certainly to start 2016. Yes, it would blow their false argument of two full years in the minors as their reason for keeping Bryant down, but I don't think they care. Everyone knew that was bullshit anyway and it was about maximizing years. Schwarber is not represented by Scott Boras. If he's hitting and the catcher idea is over with the signing of Martjn he comes up. Plus it's not all about Schwarber either , most scouts outside the Cubs organization don't think Bryant is a third baseman. Now he could also play right as well as left but you have Soler there. I just don't see why you fill a position where you have an acceptable answer with Coghlan and a platoon player until your final decision gets there.

We seem to be all coming at this from two different viewpoints; one how to you assemble the best team to compete in 2015 or 2015 is a learning and observation year where winning would be nice but not required. I'm on the latter.

If Schwarber was going to be called up in September 2015, the Cubs FO would have called up Bryant this September. It didn't happen. It isn't their MO. Schwarber will be in Wrigley at the earliest 1 month into the 2016 season just as Bryant won't be there at the start of 2015, imho. We agree. They should just find a 4th "platoon" OF to go with Cog and spell Alcantara.

 

[SilenceS]

Im reading that the Cubs are really going to give the oppurtunity for Bryant to break camp with the club. It seems that people in the know think he will start as our opening day 3rd baseman. It was quite interesting to read strong thoughts on it.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Im reading that the Cubs are really going to give the oppurtunity for Bryant to break camp with the club. It seems that people in the know think he will start as our opening day 3rd baseman. It was quite interesting to read strong thoughts on it.

That would be new. I wonder if it depends on who they get in FA and if they think the team actually could make a playoff run in 2015?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If Schwarber was going to be called up in September 2015, the Cubs FO would have called up Bryant this September. It didn't happen. It isn't their MO. Schwarber will be in Wrigley at the earliest 1 month into the 2016 season just as Bryant won't be there at the start of 2015, imho. We agree. They should just find a 4th "platoon" OF to go with Cog and spell Alcantara.

Again, as I said, the Bryant thing seems to be a charade because his agent is Scott Boras. While calling Schwarber up early will expose that charade I don't think they'll give a damn if they're in a pennant race. If he's legit, which we all hope, Bryant is only going to be a cub for his years of control and then become a free agent because that's the Boras way. Maximizing his years is the smart move and frankly I would have been pissed if they had done any different in a year with nothing on the line. Even still I suspect if they had been in a race he would have been called up. Schwarber, if he succeeds, is likely to be offered the kind of long term deal that Soler, Castro and Rizzo have but with Bryant Boras does not let his guys take those deals. Completely different situations IMO. Even still I think it's a long shot that Shwarber comes up this year, I just wouldn't bet against it especially if Martin is behind the plate.

 

[SilenceS]

Again, as I said, the Bryant thing seems to be a charade because his agent is Scott Boras. While calling Schwarber up early will expose that charade I don't think they'll give a damn if they're in a pennant race. If he's legit, which we all hope, Bryant is only going to be a cub for his years of control and then become a free agent because that's the Boras way. Maximizing his years is the smart move and frankly I would have been pissed if they had done any different in a year with nothing on the line. Even still I suspect if they had been in a race he would have been called up. Schwarber, if he succeeds, is likely to be offered the kind of long term deal that Soler, Castro and Rizzo have but with Bryant Boras does not let his guys take those deals. Completely different situations IMO. Even still I think it's a long shot that Shwarber comes up this year, I just wouldn't bet against it especially if Martin is behind the plate.

Scwarber comes up this year. It means his bat is real and the Cubs gave up on him catching. He is much farther away with he catching then a season. He never called games in college and has mechanic issues.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Im reading that the Cubs are really going to give the oppurtunity for Bryant to break camp with the club. It seems that people in the know think he will start as our opening day 3rd baseman. It was quite interesting to read strong thoughts on it.

I hadn't seen that but I think it would not make a lot of sense and piss me off. Why would you sacrifice a year of team control for three weeks? Who's reporting that?

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Scwarber comes up this year. It means his bat is real and the Cubs gave up on him catching. He is much farther away with he catching then a season. He never called games in college and has mechanic issues.

Exactly. The only chance there is that he comes up is if they sign Martin. He did catch some in college though, he just split his time between 1B, C, LF and DH. Again I'm on record as saying he's not a catcher but if he is bonus.

 

[chibears55]

Im reading that the Cubs are really going to give the oppurtunity for Bryant to break camp with the club. It seems that people in the know think he will start as our opening day 3rd baseman. It was quite interesting to read strong thoughts on it.

I said that when they got maddon..

My thinking was, now with maddon the playoff push starts in 2015. . So, if their going to bring in players to help them get there they might as well play all their main guys from day 1..

Of the 20+ games bryant misses, he could be the difference in a couple games they lose and might cost them at the end..
as the 2nd WC team, division winner, or even home advantage.

 

[SilenceS]

I hadn't seen that but I think it would not make a lot of sense and piss me off. Why would you sacrifice a year of team control for three weeks? Who's reporting that?

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Does Bryant have any real shot to make the Cubs out of Spring Training, or will they hold him back due to financial considerations regardless of how he looks? Thanks for the chat !

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, I believe he has a good shot. I don’t believe the Cubs will hold him back because of financial considerations. I truly believe they felt he needed a full minor league season—he was in college in 2013—and that having as many young players as they did with the big league club, there was no urgency to add another to the mix.

 

[brett05]

Again, as I said, the Bryant thing seems to be a charade because his agent is Scott Boras. While calling Schwarber up early will expose that charade I don't think they'll give a damn if they're in a pennant race. If he's legit, which we all hope, Bryant is only going to be a cub for his years of control and then become a free agent because that's the Boras way. Maximizing his years is the smart move and frankly I would have been pissed if they had done any different in a year with nothing on the line. Even still I suspect if they had been in a race he would have been called up. Schwarber, if he succeeds, is likely to be offered the kind of long term deal that Soler, Castro and Rizzo have but with Bryant Boras does not let his guys take those deals. Completely different situations IMO. Even still I think it's a long shot that Shwarber comes up this year, I just wouldn't bet against it especially if Martin is behind the plate.

That's a myth you keep posting. As shown here again, the players that really are stars don't make it many times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Does Bryant have any real shot to make the Cubs out of Spring Training, or will they hold him back due to financial considerations regardless of how he looks? Thanks for the chat !

Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, I believe he has a good shot. I don’t believe the Cubs will hold him back because of financial considerations. I truly believe they felt he needed a full minor league season—he was in college in 2013—and that having as many young players as they did with the big league club, there was no urgency to add another to the mix.

See I don't believe that so I can't imagine he'll be up to start the season. To me that would border on malfeasance. That would be losing a year of control for 20 games in a season that, while they would like to compete, is realistically a stepping stone year to their competition window. That makes no sense for a guy will almost certainly not be playing for your team after his years of team control. I really believe Theo and Jed are smarter than that.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That's a myth you keep posting. As shown here again, the players that really are stars don't make it many times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras

I've read it and you're right to a point. A percentage of those guys do sign and then many of those replace Boras soon after. As a business though is that what you want to count on or would you look at it that the majority of Boras' guys go that route? Personally if it's my business I choose the latter as a general principal.

 

[brett05]

I've read it and you're right to a point. A percentage of those guys do sign and then many of those replace Boras soon after. As a business though is that what you want to count on or would you look at it that the majority of Boras' guys go that route? Personally if it's my business I choose the latter as a general principal.

If I think my guys is going to be great a majority of the guys seem to tell Boras what to do other way around. Who cares what they do agent wise after they sign a long term deal. If they dump Boras all the better.

If I am an owner my goal is to win. The team has said the goal is the playoffs for 2015. He starts with the club on day #1. If I lied about that then I wait.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

If I think my guys is going to be great a majority of the guys seem to tell Boras what to do other way around. Who cares what they do agent wise after they sign a long term deal. If they dump Boras all the better.

If I am an owner my goal is to win. The team has said the goal is the playoffs for 2015. He starts with the club on day #1. If I lied about that then I wait.

Fair enough. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but Theo and Jed have been very careful to say the goal ia to compete and make a run at the playoffs. Every other time they talk about what the long term goals are they say the goal is to contend for a World Series every single year. The fact that they have not said contend in conjunction with 2015 and quickly walked back from Joe Maddon's World Series talk makes me think that they consider 2015 another step to the goal and that they are not quite ready to achieve those goals outright. I think they're in some uncharted waters because they are a bit ahead of their own timetable, got their ideal manager at least a year early and are already awash in unreasonable fan expectations which is why I think they're talking like politicians here and trying very hard to temper expectations. If they honestly don't think this is the team they want to really contend for a World Series then you hold off on Bryant for twenty games.

I think these guys are very transparent in what they're doing. When they say nothing about something being rumored or backhandedly dismiss it, that thing usually happens. Maddon is a case in point. Looks to me that Russell Martin is another. There's no denial that they're interested but they deflect all teh questions anyway. Again in hindsight they pretty spell it all out if you parse their words and read between the lines.

 

[brett05]

Fair enough. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but Theo and Jed have been very careful to say the goal ia to compete and make a run at the playoffs. Every other time they talk about what the long term goals are they say the goal is to contend for a World Series every single year. The fact that they have not said contend in conjunction with 2015 and quickly walked back from Joe Maddon's World Series talk makes me think that they consider 2015 another step to the goal and that they are not quite ready to achieve those goals outright. I think they're in some uncharted waters because they are a bit ahead of their own timetable, got their ideal manager at least a year early and are already awash in unreasonable fan expectations which is why I think they're talking like politicians here and trying very hard to temper expectations. If they honestly don't think this is the team they want to really contend for a World Series then you hold off on Bryant for twenty games.

I think these guys are very transparent in what they're doing. When they say nothing about something being rumored or backhandedly dismiss it, that thing usually happens. Maddon is a case in point. Looks to me that Russell Martin is another. There's no denial that they're interested but they deflect all teh questions anyway. Again in hindsight they pretty spell it all out if you parse their words and read between the lines.

When has Theo backed off? Conferences I've listened to of Theo said not only playoffs but World Series as long as we are in the playoffs. He's gone the other way from the interviews I've listened to on them. That's why I said he's either a liar or he means it all depending on where Bryant starts off.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

When has Theo backed off? Conferences I've listened to of Theo said not only playoffs but World Series as long as we are in the playoffs. He's gone the other way from the interviews I've listened to on them. That's why I said he's either a liar or he means it all depending on where Bryant starts off.

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but Jed has said "temper expectations" in a number of interviews, Theo has said when asked directly about playoffs that they "hope to be a buyer at the deadline" and other non committal language. The most striking example was at the Maddon press conference when they both said the verbal pretzel equivalent of "whoa, slow down there Tex" but then praised Maddon for having that kind of ambition. Also they're very careful to say "compete" as opposed to "contend". Listen, I could be dead wrong. As a fan I don't think they're ready and I kind of hope the FO doesn't think so either so that could be coloring my opinion. I don't think so but it could be. When this thing is a GO I want it to be real not fools gold.