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Soriano at first would be a bigger disaster than the BP oil spill
Getting Soriano out of town...(another idea for a swap of bad contracts)
- Thread starter dabynsky
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and the Cubs would lead the league in errors by even more
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Soriano ---> 1B is a backup plan if they don't sign Prince Fielder. If they can't sign Prince Fielder they don't stand a chance of contention. Even with Fielder there are so many holes to fill that it's not even funny.
Just about anybody can play first base. If you really want to move Soriano, best to find an AL team as stupid as the Angels and have him become a DH.
Just about anybody can play first base. If you really want to move Soriano, best to find an AL team as stupid as the Angels and have him become a DH.
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I am hoping that the Cubs can find their Angels to take Soriano off their hands. Unforunately I am not sure that will happen. I think there is a 90% chance that Soriano comes back next season because of mainly that Hendry has no incentive to rebuild this team. Hendry, despite what many of us think, isn't a dumb guy and I am sure realizes that he is now going to miss the playoffs the 3rd year in a row. The record is getting worse each year since getting swept out of the playoffs the second time in a row. He is on his third manager and his second owner. He and Crane Kenny are the next on the chopping block and know it. There is no incentive for him to move guys like Soriano in a creative deal like he did with Todd Hundley many years ago because he is not going to be the person to reap the benefits of his hard work.
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That's assuming Hendry is retained. A lot can happen between now and then. Absent a miraculous trade, you're not going to find the Cubs pay half his salary to play for another team, nor for them to flat out cut him and eat all that money. They have deep pockets (allegedly) but their economics are still finite.
I offer a different argument, and with the disclaimer that UZR is not the end-all of defensive metrics nor is it reliable year-to-year, but here:
Major League Leaderboards
Major League Leaderboards
Here's all the 1Bs in MLB and their fielding stats as well as their accumulated value thus far. Most of them are probably atrocious at fielding. Do you really think anyone cares that Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder are terrible fielders (no pun intended)? No, because they bash the shit out of baseballs. If Soriano doesn't have to limp around in LF and just has to catch balls thrown to him (and there's a difference between picking a ball in the dirt, which even Paul Konerko can do regularly, and picking a batted ball off a hop), I think he can concentrate on what he does best, which is to punish mistake pitches. He'll still strike out a ton and won't get on base very well, but the other guys strike out too. They simply walk and get on base better than Soriano. I think he can be serviceable for a year or two while they rebuild. Then when they're ready to contend they can release him. Just my opinion.
I offer a different argument, and with the disclaimer that UZR is not the end-all of defensive metrics nor is it reliable year-to-year, but here:
Major League Leaderboards
Major League Leaderboards
Here's all the 1Bs in MLB and their fielding stats as well as their accumulated value thus far. Most of them are probably atrocious at fielding. Do you really think anyone cares that Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder are terrible fielders (no pun intended)? No, because they bash the shit out of baseballs. If Soriano doesn't have to limp around in LF and just has to catch balls thrown to him (and there's a difference between picking a ball in the dirt, which even Paul Konerko can do regularly, and picking a batted ball off a hop), I think he can concentrate on what he does best, which is to punish mistake pitches. He'll still strike out a ton and won't get on base very well, but the other guys strike out too. They simply walk and get on base better than Soriano. I think he can be serviceable for a year or two while they rebuild. Then when they're ready to contend they can release him. Just my opinion.
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My favorite teams
Good move for the Cubs if it ever happened. Even if Zito is just as bad, at least he's only bad every 5 days instead of everyday.
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At least Soriano has proved he can be an asset to the team though. Yes over the last 2.4 seasons they are similar but that is using the only bad season Soriano has ever had (and it was terrible), and using the only two respectable years Zito has had since 2006. The BEST Zito is going to give you is average production. Soriano has given you above average production every year except 2009.
They were both signed the same year (2007) and since then Soriano has been worth 15.1 WAR and Zito only 7.4. Granted nearly half of Soriano's value came from 2007, but he has still been above average each year except 2009, and this year is on pace to be around 2.3 WAR this year and that's with 15 days on the DL. Probably closer to a 2.5 or so WAR. Zito is of course on pace for 0.
Trading them straight up only saves us 8 million dollars going forward as well.
IF the Giants were willing to kick in 10 or at the very least the 7 million dollar buyout I might consider it, but I don't see that happening. Not only that but Zito would get murdered in Wrigley.
I think someone mentioned the Angels. That's probably our best bet because they have the dumbest front office in all of baseball.
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My favorite teams
What about the Dodgers they have to have the worst front office in all of baseball 
I doubt the Angels would be the saviors for Soriano. They just took on Vernon Wells' mammoth contract. I'd like to see the Cubs propose this deal to the Giants and Angels, but I don't see it happening :crying:
I doubt the Angels would be the saviors for Soriano. They just took on Vernon Wells' mammoth contract. I'd like to see the Cubs propose this deal to the Giants and Angels, but I don't see it happening :crying:
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If you take out 2007 though the numbers are still a lot closer, and Soriano has been trending downwards even if you take out 2009 going from 7, 4, 3, 2.5 (slightly generous projecting but even granting that it isn't looking good). The deal only makes sense from the Cubs perspective if the Giants kick in the money to cover the buyout. I just have zero faith in the Cubs pitching, and as bad as Zito has been he still is probably an upgrade over half of what we are throwing out in that rotation right now.
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Yeah but the rotation right now isn't what we should really be concerned with.
Its the future. Do you really want to pay a pitcher 20 million when you have a rotation of:
Dempster
Garza
Zambrano
Wells
Cashner
McNutt
Does Zito make the 2011 staff better? Sure, but there is also a decent chance I make the rotation better than it currently is.
Personally Soriano is better than any other LF'er we have that would play LF next year. I don't think Zito is better than any of those pitchers.
But like you said if we are getting paid money then maybe its worth it just for the pure fact of saving a few bucks, but personally probably not.
As bad as Soriano has become he is still A) above average and B) better than what we have. I can't say the same thing about Zito.
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Cashner has yet to throw more than a 111 innings in a season. Even if he comes back healthy and dominant, the evidence is pretty clear what a jump to 180 innings does to a guy long term. McNutt has had two seperate injuries this season that have cost him time, and while it has been only two starts since coming back from the last one his June has been less than stellar (14.4 ERA). Beyond next year you are losing another two guys out of that rotation in Dempster and Zambrano.
The point here is that this a team that really lacks pitching depth, and this is a problem that goes beyond this year given the injury problems and/or suckiness of the closest pitching prospects this team has.
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How many pitchers do you want though? You can't really go and get Zito just to be ready for 2013 though (which would be his last year as well). I would imagine Dempster will be back after next year as well. I think he will retire a Cubs.
Plus:
Thats the list of 2013 FA pitchers. *'s have some sort of option for that year. There are tons of pitchers there cheaper and more effective than Zito... especially at around 20 million dollars. Hell we might be able to get that legitimate ace in Greinke or Weaver or Cain. That 2013 FA pool of pitchers actually looks quite nice.
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I too agree that we should be position ourselves for the 2013 FA class of pitchers. That said if Zito has a decent 2012, it wouldn't be hard for the Cubs to find a taker with only a season left on Zito's deal. Look this is a fantasy trade because I doubt either side really considers it. I just look at the rotation next year as a big problem, and we saw how the lack of depth at pitcher can destroy a season.
Also I see multiple prospects that are close to ready in the OF. I mean the crown jewel of our system right now is Brett Jackson, and we ought to see what we really have in Tyler Colvin. If it is anything close to his rookie year, then I am not sure that we lose that much in the OF offensively, and I know it will be better defensively.
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I got ya. I guess I just don't view it as much of a problem as you.
I mean we are still 28-28 when our starting 5 take the bump, and 4-20 when they don't. The offense has been better than expected despite Soriano, Soto, Barney, and Byrd spending time on the DL, and with no offense to speak of from our 1B the first month of the season.
The depth is an issue absolutely, but I don't particularly think many teams are 8 deep on the pitching staff. Something the Cubs have basically needed to be thus far.
Jackson better be in CF. So I don't really consider him an option for LF. Jackson very well might be better than Soriano now overall as a LF'er, but he should NOT be in LF for any reason other than we picked up Franklin Gutierrez or something.
Past him though I don't see any OF'ers that are impact bats. Colvin maybe, but do you really think he has a .250 IsoP? I don't and if he doesn't he isnt all that valuable. I mean we are probably looking at a 250/310 BA/OBP split so that SLG needs to be around 500 to make him valuable, and I don't know. It would be nice to see more from him. Maybe when Fukudome or Pena goes we can see. He obviously isnt a .116 wOBA guy, but his wOBAr for the season does only sit at .267 so its not like even taking luck out of the equation he still hasn't been crushing the ball.
He is doing fairly well in AAA though. I just don't trust Colvin yet, but I agree he is (if 2010 is him) Soriano from the left side with better defense.
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I think if you kept Byrd you could move Byrd to left with Colvin or right. Or you could flip Byrd and Colvin. There are some questions about Jackson sticking in center, and if he doesn't stick in center than he is going to play left because he doesn't have the arm for right. I guess I am throwing Vitters into the OF discussion because I have no faith he can stick at 3B, and I am hoping 1B will be filled with Fielder.
Also the Cubs didn't have to be 8 deep in SP. There was only one turn through the rotation that had 3 guys on the DL, and that is where a guy like Doug Davis or Casey Coleman can be brought up. Injuries have hurt the team and the combination of injuries to prospects made it difficult to replace the guys that went down. However the reason Rodrigo Lopez and Doug Davis are here is because the Cubs didn't have an option at the 6th SP after Casey Coleman should he didn't have a big league arm and James Russell proved that he a reliever.
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That's fair I suppose. Everything really hangs with Fielder coming here.
Fine we needed to be 7 deep. How many teams 7th starter is really better than Davis or Coleman?
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I accept that not many teams go 7 deep, but that doesn't change the fact that we are counting on the same guys with the same injury history next season. So just because most teams don't have 7 capable MLB starters, doesn't mean we shouldn't be counting on that.
Really even if Cashner comes back strong and stays healthy we shouldn't want him to throw anymore than 160 innings next year, personally I really want him to be in that 150 range. I don't know what to make of Randy Wells. I thought he would regress in 2010, and I thought he would rebound this year. I don't know what the deal is, not fully healthy perhaps? McNutt could be the answer but he has thrown all of 55 innings above high A ball with, let's call it, mixed results. I just don't think we can count on this current group plus a few minor league NRI guys like Braden Looper or Todd Wellemeyer last offseason.
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Yeah I am not convinced that Wells is healthy. Cashner I agree shouldn't go over 150 innings next year.
Regardless I just don't know that you are going to find what you are looking for that is happy to be that 6th starter. Honestly you just have to hope that you have no more than one guy on the DL at a time in the rotation or else you are giving up a loss every 5th day. You can sort of expect to have a 6th starter, but I think that's as far as you can hope for, and really that 6th starter isn't going to be a guy you want giving you more than 10 starts.
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Not to change the topic in the middle of the thread, though I think we have sufficiently explored the pros and cons of this deal (Soriano likely to be better, Zito a little less money), but I am really concerned about Cashner being pushed too hard next year. They are being real cautious with him now, but if he comes back strong next season. And if he pitches like he did that first game and this team is even remotely competitive Quade, or whoever is the manager, will ride Cashner to try to get into the playoffs. The rate of injury and ineffectiveness in the years following young pitchers throwing more than 50 IP is pretty staggering (btw that was part of the reason why I thought Wells would regress last season).