Getting Soriano out of town...(another idea for a swap of bad contracts)

[poodski]

Not to change the topic in the middle of the thread, though I think we have sufficiently explored the pros and cons of this deal (Soriano likely to be better, Zito a little less money), but I am really concerned about Cashner being pushed too hard next year. They are being real cautious with him now, but if he comes back strong next season. And if he pitches like he did that first game and this team is even remotely competitive Quade, or whoever is the manager, will ride Cashner to try to get into the playoffs. The rate of injury and the effectiveness in the years following young pitchers throwing more than 50 IP is pretty staggering (btw that was part of the reason why I thought Wells would regress last season).

Verducci effect isn't it?

Yeah I think thats right. I am a big proponenct in what the verducci approach says but I would change it to pitches rather than innings. I mean innings doesn't really say much in how much a pitcher pitched. Relatively speaking.

I can understand that for Wells, and it could be a big reason why he is having trouble this season. I just really hope he is still injured or not 100% healthy. Losing him ala Rich Hill would be pretty devastating to this team.

 

[dabynsky]

Verducci effect isn't it?

Yeah I think thats right. I am a big proponenct in what the verducci approach says but I would change it to pitches rather than innings. I mean innings doesn't really say much in how much a pitcher pitched. Relatively speaking.

I can understand that for Wells, and it could be a big reason why he is having trouble this season. I just really hope he is still injured or not 100% healthy. Losing him ala Rich Hill would be pretty devastating to this team.

Yes I am referring to the Verducci effect though I read a real early article about where Verducci was looking at relievers being turned into SPs, this was around Julian Tavarez's time with the Cubs. I think the Verducci effect is more used to talk about young pitchers with dramatically increased workloads.

Wells was a concern to me because he went from 124 IP in 2008 to 191 IP in 2009. That was a huge workload increase all at once for a guy that had only thrown around a 100 IP for most of his career (131 in 2006 and 124 in 2008). Some of last season had to be a bit of regression to mean but I think that the workload increase for a relatively young guy was a factor.

 

[poodski]

Yes I am referring to the Verducci effect though I read a real early article about where Verducci was looking at relievers being turned into SPs, this was around Julian Tavarez's time with the Cubs. I think the Verducci effect is more used to talk about young pitchers with dramatically increased workloads.

Wells was a concern to me because he went from 124 IP in 2008 to 191 IP in 2009. That was a huge workload increase all at once for a guy that had only thrown around a 100 IP for most of his career (131 in 2006 and 124 in 2008). Some of last season had to be a bit of regression to mean but I think that the workload increase for a relatively young guy was a factor.

I can dig that. His true talent is probably somewhere between 2009 and 2010.

Losing him would be brutal as we still have three years of cheap control left on him, and he is a very good middle to back end of the rotation guy.

 

[daddies3angels]

the vesting option scares me with zito. 200 IP shouldnt be to hard for him to come by.

 

[dabynsky]

the vesting option scares me with zito. 200 IP shouldnt be to hard for him to come by.

Don't know why since he hasn't thrown over 200 IP since 2006...

 

[daddies3angels]

Don't know why since he hasn't thrown over 200 IP since 2006...

Cause Cubs luck he would get to exactly 200 IP so option does pick up. Players seem to be healther on contract years.

 

[poodski]

Cause Cubs luck he would get to exactly 200 IP so option does pick up. Players seem to be healther on contract years.

Cubs could still pull him after 5 each game near the end. Or just skip him in the roto.

The team has WAY more control over his innings pitched than he does.

 

[daddies3angels]

Cubs could still pull him after 5 each game near the end. Or just skip him in the roto.

The team has WAY more control over his innings pitched than he does.

You dont think there would be some problems if cubs started pulling him when he pitching well or started skipping him when has good numbers? all these are if' but pitchers still have controll of how many innings they go...hard to pull a guy who goes 5 ip 1 run