I understand your point but JJ's contract still hits the cap, so it won't get teams paying the LT under. So I can see the benefit of not actually paying the player, but most of the teams trading the stars are over the LT by more than 5 million, espically with the cap going down this year.
First, the fact that a team is over the tax, so they want to get under it via the cap is true, however, saving them 5 million dollars via JJ is still 5 million. They'd rather trade fo cap space so that 5 million becomes 10 million, but they'd sure as hell rather have it be 5 million than 0 million. It still ups our offer considerably, and we have no good prospects to include, so making it a cash deal is about our best hope.
As a side note:
JJ + a pick for David West saves the Hornets enough to get them under the tax and basically acts as a cap space deal.
The Raptors aren't near the tax.
The Jazz are not near the tax (Milsap/Boozer)
The Suns are over the tax, and we couldn't save them enough money to get them under.
The Heat are right at the tax, but we could take on more salary than we send to make sure they stay under (though they're not going to move Wade)
So yes, cap space would be better, but the insured contract is still key, and only one of those teams (the suns) can we not get below the tax.
And when you get to the trade deadline, you are only talking about 2 million dollars. I don't think its going to be the deal breaker because team like okc and memphis have no shot at one of these guys going there, Detroit is dicey and Portland has said they aren't interested in trading LA. Detroit IMO is our biggest competition and I don't think anyone really wants to go there. So, it doesn't mean much and we might be able to salary dump Tim Thomas instead of JJ in my scenario.
It may not be a deal breaker, but what else are you really trading? You have to get some kind of value in your offer, and if you can save them cash and throw them cash that might be the best you can do.
You're probably right that you have to make the deal on draft day if you're going to make it when the draft picks will have maximum value.