Hawks vs Sabres 6:00

[LordKOTL]

Thanks for the numbers Lord. With that amount of SA the goalie has to be mvp each game.
That is not a formula for a playoff team.

Yeah, when you look at a position where, based on those averages, the average starter is seeing almost 2000 shots per year (assuming a 60-game schedule), the numbers start to become statistical. You can pretty much safely bet that a seasoned goalie (of which Crawford and Lehner are) their given play should be fairly close to their career SV%. So, if they see the average amount of shots per night--on a typical good night they should let in 2, on a typical bad night 3 (not coutning the outliers where they stone the opposition or are shelled). This is pretty much the situation for all Starter-average (about .915) and better goalies.

With the amount of shots the 'hawks have been letting past in the past 3 or so years, the expected GA rises almost a goal per game--which doesn't seem like much but it either puts the onus on the goalie, or the offense.

If the onus is on the goalie, it means they have to play better than career average--which for both Crawford and Lehner is around .918%. At 37 SA that's a RCH over 3 GA. To have 2GA it means it's a .945. Keep in mind the 2 best goaltending-years ever were Tim Thomas and Dominik Hašek, with .938 and .937, respectively.

Thus, the onus has to be on the Team O to score 4+ goals per game. We have the talent to do so, but if they get cold were screwed.

I think the only answer is to tighten up the team D to get the shots down...

Another thing to consider is this: do you remember last year when the Hawks looked decent and it coincided with Kane absolutely tearing it up offensively (as he's doing now)? I hope I'm wrong, but this feels similar now; I'm almost waiting for the team to dry up offensively (just like they did last year) if Kane can't carry the load. That isn't to downplay the recent contributions of the 2nd line as a whole in particular, but Kane is the straw that stirs the drink on this team -- if he has a cold streak and the offense as a whole dries up, it will get ugly, considering where this team stands defensively.

I kinda alluded to this--if the O is scoring we overall look good.

But to be fair, Kane was not the only one tearing it up...Debrincat helped .

 

[LordKOTL]

do we have an idea of "how bad" 37.1 is?

1. Are we talking wake up in a Cambodian opium house somewhere in the underbelly of Vegas after a blackout night and try to play the Golden Knights bad? (how many shots did Vegas average on home ice per game in their inaugural season?)

2. Are we talking post Gretsky Edmonton bad?

Is 37.1 historically bad or a bad team defense near the bottom of league?

Taking into account around the league increase with pace of play and 3vs3 overtimes...maybe even historically bad doesn't quite mean what it seems.

So is JC a puppet coach now? Does he have a role? Gameday line tactician, matchup analyst? This is kinda like a young player situation, who isn't good enough to get playing time in NHL but the press box stunts their growth.

Can you send JC back to Rockford to season up a few more years? lol.

If this fails Stan needs to finally take the axe. No more protection. The decision to keep a coach and not let them coach would not pass the smell test if their is a train wreck.

Its a unique situation though with a veteran team and then some green players that probably do take to his coaching. But to tell the young kids to throw everything out you taught them is ....

no words. Maybe our best shot is to stick with continuity, let the vets run the Q way on offense and tweak the defense under JC's supervision. ???

I'm just gonna back off about it but its a very weird situation. Its a weird team too, so that might fit. This is the last gasp of the dynasty. I have a feeling a new coach, maybe new GM...next time we make a major change this thing is going to get blowed the **** up to the extreme.

You had me curious...so I looked it up.

The last team to average *more* than 37.1 SA/GP was the 1975 Caps (38.3). The next one below us so far this season was the 85 Penguins at 37 even. Both were dead last. So yeah...we're talking historically bad.

 

[Granada]

Kane having a cold streak is low on my list of worries. He might be the American GOAT. His passing will always stir the drink if he is on the ice. He could play to 45 if he wants as he takes minimal damage and speed is not his game.

The issue is Kane is not enough. One of the other lines needs to produce consistently.

Have they tried Saad-Toews-Kubalik yet?

Saad-Toews-Kubalik
Cat-Strome-Kane
Shaw-Dach-Kampf
Jewels-Carp-Smith


Nylander just feels like fools gold to me. I can't put my finger on it but he seems hesitant to carry the puck, and while he likes to harrass on the forecheck and gets a fair number of steals he lets alot of people get behind him.

I'm cool with him on the third or fourth line but I haven't seen him click enough with Toews or a work ethic to warrant those kind of minutes. Gotta get Toews going, give him Saad and Kubalik and no excuses.

Kane is a great player of course and future hall of famer, but even great players have cold streaks. It happened last year with him and I'm not blaming him -- he can't do it on his own. I just hope that, if this year pans out like last year and he does have a bit of a dry spell, I hope others can pick up the slack.

I actually like Dach on the 4th line; his confidence is only growing there. I'm not saying he should be there permanently, but that line is working with him there, so I'd leave it alone.

I can't even remember if Kubalik was with Toews with all the line combos this year; he may have been, and if so, it was a very short stint. I'd be fine with trying him there again.

 

[Granada]

I kinda alluded to this--if the O is scoring we overall look good.

But to be fair, Kane was not the only one tearing it up...Debrincat helped .

Right, compliments of Kane.

 

[LordKOTL]

Right, compliments of Kane.

We may end up disagreeing on this, but there is something to actually finishing the play when set up and beating the goaltender.

I'm not disagreeing that Kane has been the O-driver since at least 2016 if not since 2008. But 40G is 40G. If Kane didn't have Debrincat finishing his setups that might have been even more games lost.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Kane is a great player of course and future hall of famer, but even great players have cold streaks. It happened last year with him and I'm not blaming him -- he can't do it on his own. I just hope that, if this year pans out like last year and he does have a bit of a dry spell, I hope others can pick up the slack.

I actually like Dach on the 4th line; his confidence is only growing there. I'm not saying he should be there permanently, but that line is working with him there, so I'd leave it alone.

I can't even remember if Kubalik was with Toews with all the line combos this year; he may have been, and if so, it was a very short stint. I'd be fine with trying him there again.

right right. I've been on a bit of a bender mixed with gambling frenzy, passing out high on the rush, weed, and boozed up every night for 3 weeks...getting ragged now and missed the last two games. I did well if I stand down now and clean myself up. I got lucky as these are not good conditions for success in any endeavor.

Thanks for catching me up.

Yeah...Dach probably is best on the 4th line to keep minutes down and play to his frames strengths until his all-around game develops a bit more and body hardens. . Cat-Strome-Kane all need each other, so I think we are close to solidifying line matchups. Its clicking for the moment so leave it all where it is.

 

[Granada]

We may end up disagreeing on this, but there is something to actually finishing the play when set up and beating the goaltender.

I'm not disagreeing that Kane has been the O-driver since at least 2016 if not since 2008. But 40G is 40G. If Kane didn't have Debrincat finishing his setups that might have been even more games lost.

Yes, finishing is important. I'm not saying Debrincat is a bad player; he has finishing ability. But like I said, Kane is the straw that stirs the drink. You asked what if Kane didn't Debrincat; the better question (at least to me) would be, what if Debrincat didn't have Kane?

 

[Granada]

right right. I've been on a bit of a bender mixed with gambling frenzy, passing out high on the rush, weed, and boozed up every night for 3 weeks...getting ragged now and missed the last two games. I did well if I stand down now and clean myself up. I got lucky as these are not good conditions for success in any endeavor.

Thanks for catching me up.

Yeah...Dach probably is best on the 4th line to keep minutes down and play to his frames strengths until his all-around game develops a bit more and body hardens. . Cat-Strome-Kane all need each other, so I think we are close to solidifying line matchups. Its clicking for the moment so leave it all where it is.

Yeah, I'm just glad Colliton finally put back Cat/Strome/Kane -- I was calling for this, even in the pre-season. That was arguably our best line once Schmaltz was moved for Strome last year; should have been kept together to begin the year, maybe we wouldn't have sputtered right out of the gate. Anyways, I hope Colliton just leaves that line alone because it's our best line -- they all have fantastic chemistry.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah, I'm just glad Colliton finally put back Cat/Strome/Kane -- I was calling for this, even in the pre-season. That was arguably our best line once Schmaltz was moved for Strome last year; should have been kept together to begin the year, maybe we wouldn't have sputtered right out of the gate. Anyways, I hope Colliton just leaves that line alone because it's our best line -- they all have fantastic chemistry.

yeah me too. It seemed the chemistry Cat-Kane showed at worlds was an easy segway to get there, but I assume JC was trying to help Toews and spread out the wealth of offense, but Cat-Strome just don't defend well enough and need to keep their front foot forward. Kane does that for them and we've found anything else opens up more team problems than its worth.

 

[Granada]

yeah me too. It seemed the chemistry Cat-Kane showed at worlds was an easy segway to get there, but I assume JC was trying to help Toews and spread out the wealth of offense, but Cat-Strome just don't defend well enough and need to keep their front foot forward. Kane does that for them and we've found anything else opens up more team problems than its worth.

Yeah and I get wanting to spread the wealth around and pairing a defensive forward with a more offensive line, but when a line like Cat/Strome/Kane is as offensively successful as that line -- as a coach, you just got to let them do their thing and not get cute with them. I'm personally fine with loading up the top 2 lines.

 

[Raskolnikov]

I love the versatility of Shaw/Calligula but they are best utilized giving the bottom 6 some scoring teeth when everyone is healthy.

I've enjoy Carpenters versatile contributions as well.

 

[LordKOTL]

Yes, finishing is important. I'm not saying Debrincat is a bad player; he has finishing ability. But like I said, Kane is the straw that stirs the drink. You asked what if Kane didn't Debrincat; the better question (at least to me) would be, what if Debrincat didn't have Kane?

I don't know if he'd hit 40 but I'm certain he'd be able to dent the twine.

And I wasn't alluding to "what if Kane didn't have Debrincat." I was alluding to "Where would the 'hawks have been if they didn't have those 40 tallies by Debincat?" How many of those feeds by Kane wouldn't have been finished? How many of those goals that didn't go in because Marcus Kruger was on the receiving end of the feed would have been the difference between winning and losing?" Rhetorical questions and hyperbole intended on the last one.

Or let me put it this way: If we didn't have Debrincat last year we would have been in bad shape in the O department. If we didn't have Kane we would be fucked. Proper fucked.

 

[Granada]

I don't know if he'd hit 40 but I'm certain he'd be able to dent the twine.

And I wasn't alluding to "what if Kane didn't have Debrincat." I was alluding to "Where would the 'hawks have been if they didn't have those 40 tallies by Debincat?" How many of those feeds by Kane wouldn't have been finished? How many of those goals that didn't go in because Marcus Kruger was on the receiving end of the feed would have been the difference between winning and losing?" Rhetorical questions and hyperbole intended on the last one.

Or let me put it this way: If we didn't have Debrincat last year we would have been in bad shape in the O department. If we didn't have Kane we would be fucked. Proper fucked.

That's fine, but that wasn't my point. My point was, Kane is what makes this offense go. Debrincat scored 40 goals -- that's great, and not everyone can do that (certainly, from a "finishing" standpoint) -- but again, Kane stirs the drink. Debrincat can't carry an offense like Kane can and has.

 

[Raskolnikov]

You had me curious...so I looked it up.

The last team to average *more* than 37.1 SA/GP was the 1975 Caps (38.3). The next one below us so far this season was the 85 Penguins at 37 even. Both were dead last. So yeah...we're talking historically bad.

Yeah...

jeez. I just kinda felt that intuitively watching JC's system and seeing 35 shots to 8 and stuff. Or like...zero shot periods. LOL!!!!

I saw a couple zero shot periods....and my intuition radar went off...lol, no shit. If I may self deprecate. I felt we might be watching something never seen before bad.

To rub it in exponentially, like holy shit...

A team roster talented enough and capable enough to switch systems and 3 games later paste the newly healthy and recently resurgent Predators team with Forsberg back, Duchene, and Johansson 7 to fucking 1....

Like...I'm just saying thats quite a jump up from being historically bad...worst piece of shit hockey ever witnessed in the NHL for several weeks bad...

(I'm sure plenty of seasons have seen worse months somewhere, it wasn't a full season at 37.5, and I think its been corrected too but we just played the golden knights, preditors, and hurricanes....so still saw the 30's, but it looked alot better.