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Bronek
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I didn't realise that. Certainly an eye opener.
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It's why I get wary of 1st round WRs. It would be hard to pass on the top 3 but I could see a trade down and taking a shot at one later. It's also why I wouldn't trade up for one early.
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Yeah second contracts aren’t a perfect “hit or miss” determiner but it’s definitely an eye opener to see the odds.
Bust
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actually looked respectable til the 2021 QB BUST Class came along and bottomed out the pct . . . Justin who?
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Right off the top of my head, Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, and TJ Hockensen would be considered misses based on their scenario.
msadows
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Montez Sweat too?
Not sure how this makes sense since plenty of star players get traded before their rookie deal expires.
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It’s definitely not perfect
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Correct. Bradley Chubb too.
This also doesn’t take into account that teams get into cap constraints and can’t re-sign some of their players. The Niners wanted to keep McGlinchey but couldn’t afford him.
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Amari Cooper, Haason Reddick, Leonard Floyd, and Brandin Cooks are others I can place in this category too.
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Floyd wasn’t traded
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We were talking about players that didn’t sign a second contract with their original teams that were drafted in the first round.
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Yes but Floyd was a bust for the Bears. What he did for the Rams is a moot point.
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He wasn’t and he’s had a damn good NFL career which includes winning a ring.
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He sucked for the Bears. Always showed potential but never quite got over the hump. Teams don’t draft players in the first round and consider it a victory if they play well elsewhere.
maxhatter
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I would guess that John Elway and Eli Manning also fall into the category as well
msadows
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I dont think he was a bust. Wasnt great and didnt live up to expectations but was a solid player
Toast88
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The hit rate is actually much higher than this.
It’s true that the draft is a crapshoot, but the talk of first round misses is overblown. You’re much more likely to hit on a first round pick than anywhere else in the draft, and if you hit (which you have a good chance of), you have cheap control of a good player for 5 years.
It’s true that the draft is a crapshoot, but the talk of first round misses is overblown. You’re much more likely to hit on a first round pick than anywhere else in the draft, and if you hit (which you have a good chance of), you have cheap control of a good player for 5 years.
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Elway was drafted prior to the timeframe they used to compile the numbers. Eli is a good call.
BearDown88
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This would be better if it was every other round but round 1. Actually there was a very good article about exactly that, that I wish I could find again.
I’m sure the numbers would be a lot different if you only did top 10 or top 15 picks. The hit rate for S, LB, G, RB would be way higher if it was just top 15 picks.
I’m sure the numbers would be a lot different if you only did top 10 or top 15 picks. The hit rate for S, LB, G, RB would be way higher if it was just top 15 picks.
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