Hit Rate on 1st Round Picks

[gallagher]

Yeah, as others have pointed out, this really shows how expensive it can be to resign a DE or WR, and also points to the idea that it is lucrative to trade those players and let another team resign them. Interesting info though. I definitely think that you should be investing first round picks with an eye for how they will fit on your team for eight years.

Personally, I would try to measure a hit rate by looking to the number of pro bowls and other awards in the first 8 years. It is still arbitrary, but we can talk about what outlines a "miss" in the first round.

 

[DanielCCSBears]

It's why I get wary of 1st round WRs. It would be hard to pass on the top 3 but I could see a trade down and taking a shot at one later. It's also why I wouldn't trade up for one early.

Off the top of my head I think the hit rate of receivers has gotten better lately. The early 2000s was awful for the most part to the point that I think for two drafts hardly any WRs went in round one. Now it's snapped back the other way in dramatic fashion.

 

[msadows]

Off the top of my head I think the hit rate of receivers has gotten better lately. The early 2000s was awful for the most part to the point that I think for two drafts hardly any WRs went in round one. Now it's snapped back the other way in dramatic fashion.

Its cause DB's can no longer play defense. WR is much easier to play than it was 10-15 years ago.

 

[Bust]

Its cause DB's can no longer play defense.

 

[Bearly]

Off the top of my head I think the hit rate of receivers has gotten better lately. The early 2000s was awful for the most part to the point that I think for two drafts hardly any WRs went in round one. Now it's snapped back the other way in dramatic fashion.

It has but and anyone we draft will hopefully benefit from a new QB but they also tend to flake and it's been a shortish trend. That said. the position has elevated with the current college game. Means that misses should be fewer but it also means the position is deeper. It's a position where they can do very little on their own and a QB can elevate or devalue a WR.

 

[DefNextYear]

Safety seems too low. I think that’s also a function of being good, but in ways not good enough to hand a big contract or not. I think the methodology would need to exclude whether or not they’re on the same team. A big extension means he wasn’t a bust… just that he left. Changing teams sucks for the team that drafted you, but doesn’t necessarily equate to being a bust. It just means someone else probably valued you more than your original team.

Anyway, here’s another method:

Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?

Are you better off drafting one position over another? Based strictly on precedents and trends, we set out to discover which positions have traditionally produced the most ...

syndication.bleacherreport.com

 

[bamainatlanta]

I dont think he was a bust. Wasnt great and didnt live up to expectations but was a solid player

But why wasn’t he re-signed? They had the money; but let him walk. He wasn’t a cap casualty as they signed Quinn

 

[Bearly]

Its cause DB's can no longer play defense. WR is much easier to play than it was 10-15 years ago.

Agreed but it's been more emphasized in the college game as well. Drafts have become deeper at WR.

 

[Bust]

Its cause DB's can no longer play defense. WR is much easier to play than it was 10-15 years ago.

this was a pro bowl game, hahhaa. pull this off with todays rules? kicked out of game, suspended, fines and shamed on social media, lol

 

[dabears70]

Yes but Floyd was a bust for the Bears. What he did for the Rams is a moot point.

I wouldn't call him a bust for us and more like he was still a 1st round talent but maybe a bit of a overdraft for us. He should have gone mid to late 1st round.

 

[number51]

A big extension means he wasn’t a bust… just that he left.

WTF??? No, a big extension means he did NOT leave.

Put the bong down.

 

[msadows]

I wouldn't call him a bust for us and more like he was still a 1st round talent but maybe a bit of a overdraft for us. He should have gone mid to late 1st round.

IDK, look at that draft. He prob went where he should have. DE was also particularly thin. Lot of busts in that 7-20 range as usual. Still think floyd was the "right" pick since you know the bears were never taking bong hits tunsil

 

[bamainatlanta]

I wouldn't call him a bust for us and more like he was still a 1st round talent but maybe a bit of an overdraft for us. He should have gone mid to late 1st round.

He was an off the ball linebacker, should have went in later rounds

 

[playthrough2001]

He was an off the ball linebacker, should have went in later rounds

Everyone knows the Giants were set to take him. He was going in the first round and top ten even if the Bears did not select him.

Report: Giants in play for Leonard Floyd

The New York Giants are reportedly in play for edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who was released by the Chicago Bears on Tuesday.

giantswire.usatoday.com

 

[bamainatlanta]

Everyone knows the Giants were set to take him. He was going in the first round and top ten even if the Bears did not select him.

Report: Giants in play for Leonard Floyd

The New York Giants are reportedly in play for edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who was released by the Chicago Bears on Tuesday.

giantswire.usatoday.com

That’s great. Means nothing though. He was brought on to rush the passer and he failed to rush the passer. Hence why he was allowed to walk with no compensation. Just another Pace turd. Common theme with Pace.

 

[dabears70]

IDK, look at that draft. He prob went where he should have. DE was also particularly thin. Lot of busts in that 7-20 range as usual. Still think floyd was the "right" pick since you know the bears were never taking bong hits tunsil

It was a weak ass draft. I also remember him giving off plenty of vibes of him not really wanting to be in Chicago which could of been the reason we didn't quite get the production out of him that he gave for the Rams and everywhere else he played but he definitely wasn't a bust for us.

 

[dabears70]

He was an off the ball linebacker, should have went in later rounds

I disagree

 

[Bears_804]

Elway was drafted prior to the timeframe they used to compile the numbers. Eli is a good call.

Drew Brees would be included. Believe he was drafted in 2001 and left 2005 from Chargers to Saints. Also, if you include Eli I suppose you have to include Rivers?

 

[playthrough2001]

Drew Brees would be included. Believe he was drafted in 2001 and left 2005 from Chargers to Saints. Also, if you include Eli I suppose you have to include Rivers?

Brees was selected in the 2nd round.

Rivers is another good call.

 

[Bears_804]

Brees was selected in the 2nd round.

Rivers is another good call.

Dang. Didn't know he was a 2nd rounder. Assuming things based on his performance.