"Hitting Wins Championships" (Article)

[DewsSox79]

LOL definitely not. And the health card is the worst card in sports. Unless the other 29 or 31 teams in the league are 100% healthy it doesn't matter

The best players aren't injured on your team. If Sale and Abreu were on the DL for 3 months I'd understand where you are coming from

abreu-15 day dl
sale- 15 day dl
eaton- 15 day dl twice
beckham- DL
gillespie- 15 day dl
garcia- majority of season
lindstrom- majority of season
jones- entire season

to be where we are at with all those injuries is a miracle.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Excuses. From Sux fans. Unbelievable!

 

[SilenceS]

abreu-15 day dl
sale- 15 day dl
eaton- 15 day dl twice
beckham- DL
gillespie- 15 day dl
garcia- majority of season
lindstrom- majority of season
jones- entire season

to be where we are at with all those injuries is a miracle.

So, yall have fragile players? Shit, the Cubs may have won a championship if only Mark Prior and Kerry Wood didnt go down every year!

 

[chibears55]

We have some challenges no doubt

So lets break it down. ..

Abreu is set at first
Johnson is going to be the second sacker and leadoff/#2 guy
SS for now is by Alexei and for 2015/16 we have solid candidates in Garcia Semien Sanchez and Anderson
Conor is at 3b w Davidsn a possibility

Lf is a problem. Viciedo just isn't enough
Cf Eaton
Rf Avisail as a 25 hr 15 sb guy

C is a problem but Nieto might grow into it. We've been rumored to get Weiters on and off

Wilkins is our power guy that gets the first shot at dh imo

Sale Quintana are studs. Danks is a nice five possible 4. Two starters are need from our reclimation projects or Rienzo/Johnson/rodon

Bullpen needs work

No reason if reasonably healthy the White Sox don't win 81+ in 2015

Back to you honestly....
Why would you not like that?

I ask cause I dont know who in sox system.

so basically besides Abreu your banking on players from the system going forward to succeed right away in Johnson, Semien , Conor, Nieto, and Wilkins ?

How does Avisail Garcia project to be a 25 HR guy when he never hit more then 14 in minors.. he only had 45 in 2398 PA in minors and 9 HR in 348 PA in majors ?


The Rotation has a chance to be top notch with santana and Quintana.. key will be Rodon and if he pitches the way he projected too..

Bullpen is pretty much garbage.

So your banking on 81 wins mostly because of Sales and Quintana which is fine but like cubs fans are banking on their young studs to come up and succeed right away with Rizzo and Castro, your banking on young players to succeed right away with Abreu

 

[The Bandit]

abreu-15 day dl
sale- 15 day dl
eaton- 15 day dl twice
beckham- DL
gillespie- 15 day dl
garcia- majority of season
lindstrom- majority of season
jones- entire season

to be where we are at with all those injuries is a miracle.

All teams deal with injuries. Yours is no special case Dews and you know that. Especially Chris Sale, dudes on my fantasy team, and he has been money all year long outside of one stop on the DL.

 

[brett05]

Why would I look at other teams? I am specifically talking about the Cubs players and players in their system. You're dodging now.

U made the league wide statement....not I.

 

[brett05]

I ask cause I dont know who in sox system.

so basically besides Abreu your banking on players from the system going forward to succeed right away in Johnson, Semien , Conor, Nieto, and Wilkins ?

How does Avisail Garcia project to be a 25 HR guy when he never hit more then 14 in minors.. he only had 45 in 2398 PA in minors and 9 HR in 348 PA in majors ?


The Rotation has a chance to be top notch with santana and Quintana.. key will be Rodon and if he pitches the way he projected too..

Bullpen is pretty much garbage.

So your banking on 81 wins mostly because of Sales and Quintana which is fine but like cubs fans are banking on their young studs to come up and succeed right away with Rizzo and Castro, your banking on young players to succeed right away with Abreu

Conor is rolling now

It's what avi projects as...don't know what to tell you there...

I'm banking on not losing two closers and some health. If we get that we win 81 games today., if we patch and I do mean patch and not get suberb fa type players for the pen we are 81+ What we get out of the kids next year is gravy

 

[Bear Pride]

So, yall have fragile players? Shit, the Cubs may have won a championship if only Mark Prior and Kerry Wood didnt go down every year!

I was thinking the same thing. The Sox shouldn't have brought in players that can't stay healthy. Turrible job by the FO!

 

[JZsportsfan]

Conor is rolling now

It's what avi projects as...don't know what to tell you there...

I'm banking on not losing two closers and some health. If we get that we win 81 games today., if we patch and I do mean patch and not get suberb fa type players for the pen we are 81+ What we get out of the kids next year is gravy

Conor has a .360 BAIP that is completely unsustainable, sorry but he isn't as good as him AVG says he is

 

[beckdawg]

The Sox are -60 in run diff. The cubs are -44. Even if you factor in injuries they've had I struggle to suggest they get to even run differential which is typically where you talk about .500 teams are at. However, I don't think it's that crazy to suggest them as a 75-80 win team. And if you're going to give the Sox the benefit of the doubt for injuries you need to give the cubs slack because they have avoided bringing up top prospects which crushed their horrible offense early on.

Frankly, I don't see much difference in the two teams this year. You're talking about the Sox being 3 games up on the cubs. That's nothing. The cubs were 9-17 in April and 20-33 through may and currently sit 52-67. So, since june they are 32-34 and that includes a full month and almost a half without their two "best" pitchers.

 

[brett05]

Conor has a .360 BAIP that is completely unsustainable, sorry but he isn't as good as him AVG says he is

And yet he has sustained it all year long as people keep spouting that. Long term I believe he's a .280+ lifetime hitter. Super solid from any player really.

 

[brett05]

The Sox are -60 in run diff. The cubs are -44. Even if you factor in injuries they've had I struggle to suggest they get to even run differential which is typically where you talk about .500 teams are at. However, I don't think it's that crazy to suggest them as a 75-80 win team. And if you're going to give the Sox the benefit of the doubt for injuries you need to give the cubs slack because they have avoided bringing up top prospects which crushed their horrible offense early on.

Frankly, I don't see much difference in the two teams this year. You're talking about the Sox being 3 games up on the cubs. That's nothing. The cubs were 9-17 in April and 20-33 through may and currently sit 52-67. So, since june they are 32-34 and that includes a full month and almost a half without their two "best" pitchers.

They are up four games, but your point is made. The difference is the injuries. We lost our second best hitter for basically the entire season. Lost top two closers, had the Cy Young and MVP candidates on the DL. It all counts. negatively.

Keeping the specs down makes up for it? So you are saying the Cubs could have made a WC run but the management didn;t want to win? Isn't that what your opinion screams between the lines?

 

[brett05]

It does refute pitching wins, you just have to follow some links to previous articles.

http://grantland.com/features/mlb-detroit-tigers-oakland-as-rotations/

If you read in there it goes on to reference another two articles

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?type=2&articleid=18414#123838

The whole point in investing in bats is that it isn't as risky. If we invested in pitchers, that would be a big risk.

Still waiting for one link....do you need that defined for you???

I gave you one.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18414

Can you read?

Can you count cause I see more than one?

OK, I read the article. First some flaws:

- Data reflects a very small sample size (94-11)
- Uses only one pitcher

Secondly it said that the single pitcher based on their formula of an ace makes a big difference to get to the playoffs. Without the "ace" it's less likely to get to the playoffs. And they said if they dug into it deeper the percentage was probably even higher. Just imagine if they would have compared all of pitching?

I love you CO. Every time you post something to help your case out on this it backfires and helps my case out.

 

[beckdawg]

They are up four games, but your point is made. The difference is the injuries. We lost our second best hitter for basically the entire season. Lost top two closers, had the Cy Young and MVP candidates on the DL. It all counts. negatively.

Keeping the specs down makes up for it? So you are saying the Cubs could have made a WC run but the management didn;t want to win? Isn't that what your opinion screams between the lines?

I'm not going to get into a pointless debate about who "had it worse." Injuries are a part of the game. To suggest they are a better team if healthy ignores the fact that no team is ever full healthy. Regardless, the point I made stands. I don't see any chance that those injuries account for the -60 run differential the sox have. It would clearly be closer to even which is why I suggested a 75-80 win range is where they would have been. Would they have finished with a better record than the cubs if the cubs had some of their issues sorted? Maybe though it's hard to say. But frankly, neither team was making the playoffs regardless. KC and Detroit are significantly better teams than the Sox and one of the wild cards was coming out of the AL west anyways and maybe 2. The NL central is arguably the most competitive in baseball being the only division with 4 of the 5 teams being over .500 and the cubs being near that since June. I'm not going to say it's the *best* division as you could argue the AL West has the two best teams in baseball and a pretty decent Seattle. The cubs were never going to overtake those teams especially after a horrid start.

So, at this point it's like comparing two turds as to which is "best." Could the Sox have won 82ish games? Maybe but that's still not getting you a wildcard. Could the Cubs have finished over .500? Maybe but again not getting you a wildcard. To illustrate this point, both front offices knew this. The Sox sat at 39-44 to start July and did nothing at the deadline. The cubs obviously sold hard. There's nothing wrong with the season either team has had. If both teams win mid 70's in terms of games you're talking roughly a 10 game improvement for both.

 

[brett05]

I'm not going to get into a pointless debate about who "had it worse." Injuries are a part of the game. To suggest they are a better team if healthy ignores the fact that no team is ever full healthy. Regardless, the point I made stands. I don't see any chance that those injuries account for the -60 run differential the sox have. It would clearly be closer to even which is why I suggested a 75-80 win range is where they would have been. Would they have finished with a better record than the cubs if the cubs had some of their issues sorted? Maybe though it's hard to say. But frankly, neither team was making the playoffs regardless. KC and Detroit are significantly better teams than the Sox and one of the wild cards was coming out of the AL west anyways and maybe 2. The NL central is arguably the most competitive in baseball being the only division with 4 of the 5 teams being over .500 and the cubs being near that since June. I'm not going to say it's the *best* division as you could argue the AL West has the two best teams in baseball and a pretty decent Seattle. The cubs were never going to overtake those teams especially after a horrid start.

So, at this point it's like comparing two turds as to which is "best." Could the Sox have won 82ish games? Maybe but that's still not getting you a wildcard. Could the Cubs have finished over .500? Maybe but again not getting you a wildcard. To illustrate this point, both front offices knew this. The Sox sat at 39-44 to start July and did nothing at the deadline. The cubs obviously sold hard. There's nothing wrong with the season either team has had. If both teams win mid 70's in terms of games you're talking roughly a 10 game improvement for both.

You're arguing they are the same. They clearly are not nor really close. And that's my point.

EDIT: I understand you wanting to have the Sox at the same level as the Cubs and I hope you see the reasoning behind the Sox being greater than the Cubs as things stand today from my perspective.

 

[SilenceS]

And yet he has sustained it all year long as people keep spouting that. Long term I believe he's a .280+ lifetime hitter. Super solid from any player really.

.360 BABIP is completely unsustainable. Its like when the Cardinals hit over .330 as a team with RISP last year. You knew that was going to come crashing down soon

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Look at other teams...just look at the Sox for a team that has more...the Cubs are near the bottom in pitching. Even Theo said hitting is done and we're switching attention to pitching

WHat you said earlier:

"Sale Quintana are studs. Danks is a nice five possible 4. Two starters are need from our reclimation projects or Rienzo/Johnson/rodon"

Granted you guys have a better 1-2 than us. But like I said our 2-5 depth is better than most teams in the MLB. And in your post above you actually proved it by admitting your back end is filled with 3 reclamation projects. While the Cubs have nearly ten to fill those same spots. 10 is greater than 3, not sure how you can continue to ignore that.

 

[beckdawg]

You're arguing they are the same. They clearly are not nor really close. And that's my point.

EDIT: I understand you wanting to have the Sox at the same level as the Cubs and I hope you see the reasoning behind the Sox being greater than the Cubs as things stand today from my perspective.

It's laughable that a team being 4 games back or whatever it is makes them "not the same level." Spare me the excuses. Neither team ever was a playoff team and if you're unable to accept that you're clearly being a homer or oblivious. At the end of the day the cubs actually have a better run differential. So, even if you suggest injuries would change that for the sox it's a relatively small difference if any in the teams.

I'll concede the sox probably will/could have win more games but to suggest they are some how on the verge of the playoffs if they didn't have injuries is absurd. At the end of the day both teams probably win 70-80 games which puts them on the same level as far as I'm concerned.

 

[brett05]

WHat you said earlier:

"Sale Quintana are studs. Danks is a nice five possible 4. Two starters are need from our reclimation projects or Rienzo/Johnson/rodon"

Granted you guys have a better 1-2 than us. But like I said our 2-5 depth is better than most teams in the MLB. And in your post above you actually proved it by admitting your back end is filled with 3 reclamation projects. While the Cubs have nearly ten to fill those same spots. 10 is greater than 3, not sure how you can continue to ignore that.

Quantity does not trump quality

 

[brett05]

It's laughable that a team being 4 games back or whatever it is makes them "not the same level." Spare me the excuses. Neither team ever was a playoff team and if you're unable to accept that you're clearly being a homer or oblivious. At the end of the day the cubs actually have a better run differential. So, even if you suggest injuries would change that for the sox it's a relatively small difference if any in the teams.

I'll concede the sox probably will/could have win more games but to suggest they are some how on the verge of the playoffs if they didn't have injuries is absurd. At the end of the day both teams probably win 70-80 games which puts them on the same level as far as I'm concerned.

Given that just about two weeks ago they were four out of the WC with all they've dealt with it foolish not to think playoffs with the health they have traditionally had