I have always said next year was when “the window” opens and they wouldn’t truly be competitive until then.
I still feel that way. Build the lines some more this offseason. Get a new HC. CW keeps improving.
It’s not a given. They still have to make the right moves. But nothing that I’ve seen so far has dissuaded me from thinking good times are a year away.
Am I wrong?
Short answer: You're not wrong at all. If the bears get even one above-average OL--and I'm not talking replacement level like what they have now, or another castaway for a late round draft pick or in the garbage bin section of the FA market--I'm talking good, then they're contenders if Braxton and Wright can do their jobs on critical passing situations like they showed they could against a heck of a pass rusher in Rashan Gary--who yes, got 1 sack on them. I was more irritated with 57 getting in unblocked too many times, but unrelated to the topic. Back on point--1 above average OL makes 'just guys' with a little health/luck start to look a lot better when they're picking on teams' depth/their "just guys." Ideally, you need an entirely revamped IOL, but an outstanding C would go a far ways. Is there one in the draft? Because that's probably the only way you'll get it.
They'll need 2 DT for depth (because Pickens isn't it, the dude can't shed a block, and he hasn't shown anything that he can even be a back up at this level) and a DE.
They ultimately need a coach who understands whats going on in front of him. Because even yesterday with the OL giving Caleb some time, the HC can **** things up in an instant.
(For the purpose of this discussion I will define competitive as a team that can make the playoffs and have a shot at winning a game)
If I am wrong how far away are the Bears? Total tear down stage? Two years?
See...I advocate for Poles to be fired because there is enormous potential for this to be closer to a total teardown than playoffs, but right now, I'll choose to be optimistic.
Besides all the moves people have complained about that he's made, let's talk about situations the GM is going to be in going forward. I've been highly critical of Poles, bemoaning that he builds the team 'trenches last,' well here is a coming predicament that is a result of his draft approach.
He's drafted 3 key secondary starters within 2 years, AND gave Jaylon his top 5 corner money. It's almost time to pay the piper with Gordon and Brisker, then Stevenson is up a year later--all mind you still on Caleb's rookie deal. Its irresponsible to pay them all well, as we know what happens when 75% of the payroll goes to the defense, and good secondary players don't come cheap these days. It's naive to think any of them would play well then stay here on a "sweetheart" or discounted deal. So now you're going to lose how many, 1 guy? 2? Those are also holes you have to plug when you have to lose a guy. And for those ready to give me 'but the Seattle legion of Boom last decade' I submit to you they were on Russ' rookie deal, and Seattle had a HOF LT and top 5 OL in football, the latter 2 the bears aren't even close to. Instead of 3 DBs, if Poles got a good OL or even DL, extending guys becomes an easy decision given money going to different areas of offense/defense. But by drafting 3 guys all in the secondary when he did, other positions were ignored and still need addressing.
How far away are the bears? Easy answer: One year. A few right decisions, like drafting a stud OG/OC, signing another decent OG, getting some more OT depth, and replacing Herbert and Homer in the backfield are the smarter offensive moves to make, along with finding a permanent playcaller.
For the defense? Decide really quick what you want. If you want to bend/not break, stick with the 4 man front. If you want to dial it up a notch and be better, I think you change to a 3-4. You first need the right playcaller--as we just saw what an aggressive 3-4 coach (Vic Fangio) vs a play-not-to-lose guy in Chuckles Pagano. You don't run a 3-4 to be unaggressive, you run it to bring pressure from anywhere/everywhere that's hard to scheme against when you only expect 4 DL in front of you.
You'd also need a beefy NT, and a few should be towards the top of this coming draft, whether its the 330 lb fatty from Michigan (Ken Grant), the 350 lb fatty from Kentucky (Deone Walker), or Tyliek Williams (OSU)/Demonte Capehart (Clemson)? All presently projected rounds 1-3. Grant definitely is a 1st rounder, unless he fucks something up or beats his GF. The other guys? One should be available next April.
You have interchangeable pieces for the 3/4. You can finally stop playing Dexter out of position. Yeah, he's made strides as a 3T but he's never been one and doesn't consistently dominate the B gap. He's had several great plays where he's done the read/react, just like Akiem Hicks would do and he'd blow up a play. Got a 5T there. Need another, you can get away with Billings as a platooned NT with the rookie, Sweat can play viper edge, you'd need an edge setting Joker. And your secondary is pretty interchangeable as Jaylon has great experience as a man coverage DB, Gordon and Stevenson playing 3-4s in college. Lastly, the ILBs are interchangeable, though Edmunds after his performance this past week doesn't instill confidence that the bears need to be giving him 20+ mil a year.
Longwinded way to say yes, they can turn this around in a year.
