How does vegas come up with 'odds'?

[Desperado34]

Take for instance, the PGA.. How do they determine who has the best odds and overall belief they will be able to win it all? Do they bookies look at stats, science, expert opinions or something? I'm trying to grasp how and why the bookies in vegas determine which player for any sport gets the best odds. For instance, Jordan Spieth has 8/1 odds of winning this coming weekend, do you guys think there is a science to how they view this? Do they just guess?

Anyone?

 

[Crystallas]

Look up moneyline bookmaking. As far as exact methods, AFAIK they aren't completely transparent and the computations to determine the odds are adjusted regularly. Usually based on every split and detail with significant enough data to throw into whatever computer(or person).

Otherwise you have prediction markets/live betting odds where the odds are determined by the existing bets placed and they fluctuate as more bets come in.

 

[brett05]

The goal of the makers is to get even action. All the bookmakers want is the juice. How it all started? Not sure, but there is tons of historical data now a days to do it.

 

[Mitchapalooza]

The goal of the makers is to get even action. All the bookmakers want is the juice. How it all started? Not sure, but there is tons of historical data now a days to do it.

I'm going to blindly say that this information is inaccurate and will not accept any proof, so don't bother.

 

[clonetrooper264]

I'm going to blindly say that this information is inaccurate and will not accept any proof, so don't bother.

:smh:

 

[Mitchapalooza]

:smh:

:beartroll:

 

[Desperado34]

The goal of the makers is to get even action. All the bookmakers want is the juice. How it all started? Not sure, but there is tons of historical data now a days to do it.

So wait, they don't do analysis or numbers crunching? Like if a golfer has the 2nd best odds behind the leader-- is it because the bookies actually studied and analyzed data to believe he had the 2nd best odds?

 

[ShiftyDevil]

The goal of the makers is to get even action. All the bookmakers want is the juice. How it all started? Not sure, but there is tons of historical data now a days to do it.

That's it in a nutshell. That's why you see lines move, not because the odds makers think one team/athlete/whatever is more likely to win/lose, but to get people to bet both sides.

It's also why teams like the Cowboys, Packers, Bears etc get the odds they do, even if they don't totally align to how good/bad they are in a given year. They're popular teams and will draw action because of the size of the fanbase.

EDIT: To further clarify, the odds maker doesn't set the line based on how good they think a given team is exactly, but how good they think the public thinks the team (or whatever) is.

 

[botfly10]

do they look at science!? HUH? DO THEY?

lmfao

 

[botfly10]

So wait, they don't do analysis or numbers crunching? Like if a golfer has the 2nd best odds behind the leader-- is it because the bookies actually studied and analyzed data to believe he had the 2nd best odds?

You guys gon have to hold despbro's hand and walk him across this street

 

[Desperado34]

That's it in a nutshell. That's why you see lines move, not because the odds makers think one team/athlete/whatever is more likely to win/lose, but to get people to bet both sides.

It's also why teams like the Cowboys, Packers, Bears etc get the odds they do, even if they don't totally align to how good/bad they are in a given year. They're popular teams and will draw action because of the size of the fanbase.

EDIT: To further clarify, the odds maker doesn't set the line based on how good they think a given team is exactly, but how good they think the public thinks the team (or whatever) is.

Hmmm, I always was under impression if i looked at odds, and different things I've read, that bookies place odds based off of research of who they believe in all probability would win? Doesn't sound like a hard job when comparing other articles saying how it's a highly competitive field, because, it seems I'm getting this wrong, they don't really base odds off of statistical analysis but general consensus of public opinion?

 

[Urblock]

:slap:

 

[botfly10]

Hmmm, I always was under impression if i looked at odds, and different things I've read, that bookies place odds based off of research of who they believe in all probability would win? Doesn't sound like a hard job when comparing other articles saying how it's a highly competitive field, because, it seems I'm getting this wrong, they don't really base odds off of statistical analysis but general consensus of public opinion?

They start with subjective odds based on previous performance then change them according to how the money comes in with the goal being to break even. In the end, the odds can have little to do with what they think the outcome will be and everything to do with how people have bet their line.

Its not statistics. Just basic algebra. mx=y where m is the odds, x and y are money that has come in on either side.

They adjust the odds so one side always covers the other.

 

[ruprecht]

If you are betting on golf you might have a problem.

 

[ruprecht]

:slap:

 

[Desperado34]

If you are betting on golf you might have a problem.

I play draft kings with 4 friends in a tournament. 3 dollars to buy in, and that's a problem?

Ouch.

I work at golf outings and find it interesting, but yes.. 3 whopping dollars with my friends is a gambling problem.

Thanks sir

 

[Desperado34]

They start with subjective odds based on previous performance then change them according to how the money comes in with the goal being to break even. In the end, the odds can have little to do with what they think the outcome will be and everything to do with how people have bet their line.

Its not statistics. Just basic algebra. mx=y where m is the odds, x and y are money that has come in on either side.

They adjust the odds so one side always covers the other.

Thanks, just trying to make understanding of how Vegas lines work.

 

[ruprecht]

I play draft kings with 4 friends in a tournament. 3 dollars to buy in, and that's a problem?

Ouch.

I work at golf outings and find it interesting, but yes.. 3 whopping dollars with my friends is a gambling problem.

Thanks sir

Thats not what I was talking about.

 

[Desperado34]

Thats not what I was talking about.

If you're speaking of people in general I concur, so I appreciate if you didn't imply to categorize me in that level.

Thanks

 

[Desperado34]

Anyways, cool convo! Thanks guys