How does vegas come up with 'odds'?

[airtime143]

Thank you for your input, but I'm asking is in level to what the average bettor reads. Are they reading a overall 'odd' based off a bookies analysis due to studying/truly best odds; or is it simply the general consensus among the population where Vegas determines the odds?

I chose golf because it's the simplest. What makes a guy 6/1 odds over some guy with previous success as said course.. 24/1? Is it based off of statistical analysis or general population belief?

My lady had a grandfather that set the odds at a horse track in the northeast... and horse bettors are hard core- they digest wins, conditions, jockey, and course info and match it to how the horse looks that day.

as for the team sports, back in his day, he said the out of town money was usually the biggest indicator on how well the odds are set, and that looking at the home town bets were a great way to go broke... Chicago believes more in the bears than the rest of the u.s. does, green bay believes in the packers more than anyone else... but the average fan from another city has a better clinical grasp of strengths and weaknesses without homerism.

Nowadays however... everyone has a shit ton of info at their fingertips so I would imagine the big gamblers probably do a ton of leg work.
Just a guess.

 

[Ares]

You should try draft kings and daily fantasy. I throw like $3-$9 for some fun on golf with some buddies, it's a blast.

I'm still struggling with this. At one point you guys are saying the odds aren't based off of who the bookies believe will win, but the general consensus of the bettors. So, I mean.. Wtf is there job then other to move the line too far

I think they just move the line a bit based on how many bets are coming in for certain parties in order to try to mitigate some risk.... if 60% of people are betting on fighter A you may move the line a bit to drop the payout for betting on fighter A and increase it for betting on fighter B to discourage betting on fighter A assuming he will win and encourage betting on fighter B assuming he will lose. The more people bet on the loser the more money you keep.... the lower the payout on the winner, the less money you need to payout.

I don't think the betting itself has the biggest influence on the line, but it has some impact just because as a business you want to try to mitigate the risk of a huge % of people betting on the winner and you pay out a ton and lose alot of money.

 

[Unannounced Fart]

You should try draft kings and daily fantasy. I throw like $3-$9 for some fun on golf with some buddies, it's a blast.

I'm still struggling with this. At one point you guys are saying the odds aren't based off of who the bookies believe will win, but the general consensus of the bettors. So, I mean.. Wtf is there job then other to move the line too far

I'll explain my understanding of it, but I'm not claiming it to be gospel. The bookmakers set a line based on several factors, but the #1 goal is to set a line that will encourage betting on both sides. Ideally, 50% of the action will be bet on Team A, and the other 50% will be bet on Team B. This way, the book will be guaranteed to make money off the vig. How they set a line is based on their personal knowledge of the teams, as well as spreadsheets, algorithms, rankings, etc., all with the goal of setting a line that will encourage the public to bet on both sides. The line will then change depending on what the public bets on. If more people bet on Team A, then the line will adjust accordingly to encourage more betting on Team B, and vice versa.

 

[brett05]

Absolutely correct UF. The only thing that moves the line is action in attempts to get equal wagering on both sides.