How does vegas come up with 'odds'?

[ijustposthere]

I play draft kings with 4 friends in a tournament. 3 dollars to buy in, and that's a problem?

Ouch.

I work at golf outings and find it interesting, but yes.. 3 whopping dollars with my friends is a gambling problem.

Thanks sir

**** Draft Kings. The money is in Fan Duel. Not sure about golf though, if that's what you were implying you bet on. Also, Bovada is the place to bet online. Pretty fair odds. Much better than Parlay cards I used to play.

 

[brett05]

As ShiftyDevil shared, the books could careless who wins anything. The odds are not set based on past game performance but on past wagering performance. And yes, the odds change with the action so that there is equality on both sides. If your clients wager heavy one way, make the odds appealing that people bet away from their intentions. The juice is all the book wants. 10% of the action. It's a good living.

 

[ruprecht]

If you're speaking of people in general I concur, so I appreciate if you didn't imply to categorize me in that level.

Thanks

That's not what I was implying.

 

[Desperado34]

**** Draft Kings. The money is in Fan Duel. Not sure about golf though, if that's what you were implying you bet on. Also, Bovada is the place to bet online. Pretty fair odds. Much better than Parlay cards I used to play.

Why Fan Duel over DK? You can't do late switchs on FD, which would screw you bad if someone was a late scratch.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Conversation sucks.

 

[SilenceS]

As ShiftyDevil shared, the books could careless who wins anything. The odds are not set based on past game performance but on past wagering performance. And yes, the odds change with the action so that there is equality on both sides. If your clients wager heavy one way, make the odds appealing that people bet away from their intentions. The juice is all the book wants. 10% of the action. It's a good living.

They are different ways. There are handicappers at various casino's that will
Move the line based on their knowledge. There is literally a million different things people do. They have computer systems. Ranking systems. The whole nine. It's a pretty complex formula that differs depending on who is taking the action.


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[brett05]

They are different ways. There are handicappers at various casino's that will
Move the line based on their knowledge. There is literally a million different things people do. They have computer systems. Ranking systems. The whole nine. It's a pretty complex formula that differs depending on who is taking the action.


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What you described is basically exactly what I said. At the larger places the line moves based on the action, not on the handicapper's knowledge. Again ideally all books want 50/50 on both sides.

 

[SilenceS]

What you described is basically exactly what I said. At the larger places the line moves based on the action, not on the handicapper's knowledge. Again ideally all books want 50/50 on both sides.

It's does move based on their knowledge as well. There are heads that do this for different casino's


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[brett05]

It's does move based on their knowledge as well. There are heads that do this for different casino's


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Setting a line and a line moving are a little different. Action moves the line. Prior betting history usually sets the line. If it worked like you said you'd see vastly different lines. Usually all lines are within ten cents of each other.

 

[SilenceS]

Setting a line and a line moving are a little different. Action moves the line. Prior betting history usually sets the line. If it worked like you said you'd see vastly different lines. Usually all lines are within ten cents of each other.

They use these guys to get an advantage on players. What you are saying is correct, but they also have heads that will move it if they think they can get away with it. In essence, moving a 3 point game in football to a 3.5 line. They do it because they believe they will get the same action but gain a big afvantage


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[brett05]

They use these guys to get an advantage on players. What you are saying is correct, but they also have heads that will move it if they think they can get away with it. In essence, moving a 3 point game in football to a 3.5 line. They do it because they believe they will get the same action but gain a big afvantage


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That is true, but only to get equal action, the casino does not gamble in hopes of getting lopsided wagering.

 

[number51]

Most of you guys are probably too young to remember The National Sports Daily, it was a daily sports only news stand tabloid. It lasted about a year and a half 1-90 to 6-91. I loved it and read it everyday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_National_Sports_Daily

They printed a series of articles about a bunch of nerds (designing nuclear sub's for Westinghouse) that accidentally created a program that could predict NFL point spreads better than Vegas. It's a true story, It's amazing. and it is long as hell. They published the story as a series of chapters, so it was a great and fast read.

I wouldn't blame anyone for going tl;dr. But if you really want to know about setting odds/point spreads it's a good read. Also nerds vs the mob vs the FBI.
http://www.offshorebettor.com/images/COMPUTER.htm

A taste:
"One day Michael Kent, who was the centerfielder, got to wondering about his company softball team. How good were he and his teammates, really? When they destroyed a poor opponent by 15-4, was that as impressive as beating a good team by 6-5? His team had won a couple of league championships, but what had they really accomplished? All his life he had found answers to such questions in numbers, statistics. He simply had to find out what those numbers meant. What was the numerical definition of a good softball team?

His thoughts drifted naturally in this direction. Kent was a 27-year-old math-' mathematician at Westinghouse in suburban Pittsburgh. Every day he worked with computers. to help design a better nuclear sub. At night, he says. he began to formulate a computer program that rated the strength of his softball team. Each week he would update the statistics, then feed the information into the high-speed Control Data computer at Westinghouse. His teammates were interested in this output of statistics — it was flattering to them — but Michael Kent ultimately was disappointed by the results. When (he work was done he had a printout listing his team's strengths and weaknesses. So what? He had given order to these numbers, but there was no application, no further use for them."

Or was there?

 

[Unannounced Fart]

A good friend of mine is a professional sports handicapper. Unlike 90% of people in that industry, he's actually honest, hardworking, and has legit inside sources. He handicaps college football and college basketball exclusively, with a majority of his focus on those little, tiny, podunk college basketball teams that you've never heard of. The oddsmakers do not have as good of a grasp on those teams as they do the big schools, and it's reflected in the lines. Throw in the fact that the handicapper had inside sources, and he really gave himself an advantage. This handicapper has had only about 2 or 3 losing seasons over the past 15+ years (with this past year being one of them), and has gained the respect of all the Vegas bookmakers. A few years ago, he ended up at +61 units in college hoops, which is unheard of. That year, as soon as he released his picks, the lines would change literally 3-6 points immediately, and some books actually suspended betting on those games until they could adjust accordingly. He was even approached by a Vegas casino who wanted to employ him as an oddsmaker for those conferences in which he feasted on.

It's crazy to think that he was this guy who lived at home at mom's house when he first started his business, to years later being one of the most successful in his industry, and actually moving Vegas lines significantly.

 

[Unannounced Fart]

Most of you guys are probably too young to remember The National Sports Daily, it was a daily sports only news stand tabloid. It lasted about a year and a half 1-90 to 6-91. I loved it and read it everyday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_National_Sports_Daily

I loved The National, read it everyday. I was so sad when it got cancelled.

 

[SilenceS]

A good friend of mine is a professional sports handicapper. Unlike 90% of people in that industry, he's actually honest, hardworking, and has legit inside sources. He handicaps college football and college basketball exclusively, with a majority of his focus on those little, tiny, podunk college basketball teams that you've never heard of. The oddsmakers do not have as good of a grasp on those teams as they do the big schools, and it's reflected in the lines. Throw in the fact that the handicapper had inside sources, and he really gave himself an advantage. This handicapper has had only about 2 or 3 losing seasons over the past 15+ years (with this past year being one of them), and has gained the respect of all the Vegas bookmakers. A few years ago, he ended up at +61 units in college hoops, which is unheard of. That year, as soon as he released his picks, the lines would change literally 3-6 points immediately, and some books actually suspended betting on those games until they could adjust accordingly. He was even approached by a Vegas casino who wanted to employ him as an oddsmaker for those conferences in which he feasted on.

It's crazy to think that he was this guy who lived at home at mom's house when he first started his business, to years later being one of the most successful in his industry, and actually moving Vegas lines significantly.

Pretty cool. I've been told to do a website on my picks. I have had a great year. Your boy would be really interesting to talk to. If what you are saying is true, dude is a monster. Nothing better then the thrill of sports gambling


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[Desperado34]

So, wait.. I'm loving the replies but some of yall are making it sound like anyone can do this job.

Move the way the bet goes? Ok then! It sounds too simple to be as complex as I've been told. All you need to do is move whatever the odds dictate based off of what the bets are? Doesn't sound hard at all.

If Vegas lines are legit, and I thought they were, it's literally bookies having a valid opinion of who is most likely to win. Which does not seem to be the case? So when they move the line, it's just based off what the bettors believe is to be the actual score/winner?

 

[Unannounced Fart]

So, wait.. I'm loving the replies but some of yall are making it sound like anyone can do this job.

Move the way the bet goes? Ok then! It sounds too simple to be as complex as I've been told. All you need to do is move whatever the odds dictate based off of what the bets are? Doesn't sound hard at all.

If Vegas lines are legit, and I thought they were, it's literally bookies having a valid opinion of who is most likely to win. Which does not seem to be the case? So when they move the line, it's just based off what the bettors believe is to be the actual score/winner?

Not sure if I'm following you, but once the line is set by the bookmakers, the line movement is then dictated by the actual betting action. In the story I wrote about my handicapper friend, that was a rare instance of one person moving the line. And that was only because of several unique factors at play concurrently (he was winning a vast majority of his plays, thereby gaining the attention of the Vegas books; he was betting on games that involved very small schools, thus resulting in very little betting action relative to other games.. I doubt he would have been able to move NBA or NFL lines no matter how successful he was).

 

[Desperado34]

Not sure if I'm following you, but once the line is set by the bookmakers, the line movement is then dictated by the actual betting action. In the story I wrote about my handicapper friend, that was a rare instance of one person moving the line. And that was only because of several unique factors at play concurrently (he was winning a vast majority of his plays, thereby gaining the attention of the Vegas books; he was betting on games that involved very small schools, thus resulting in very little betting action relative to other games.. I doubt he would have been able to move NBA or NFL lines no matter how successful he was).

Thank you for your input, but I'm asking is in level to what the average bettor reads. Are they reading a overall 'odd' based off a bookies analysis due to studying/truly best odds; or is it simply the general consensus among the population where Vegas determines the odds?

I chose golf because it's the simplest. What makes a guy 6/1 odds over some guy with previous success as said course.. 24/1? Is it based off of statistical analysis or general population belief?

 

[Unannounced Fart]

Pretty cool. I've been told to do a website on my picks. I have had a great year. Your boy would be really interesting to talk to. If what you are saying is true, dude is a monster. Nothing better then the thrill of sports gambling


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Yeah, give it a shot, but as I'm sure you're already aware, winning consistently is difficult. The startup cost would be very minimal and if you win, people will notice. My friend started out by giving out free picks on various betting forums and built up his reputation that way. It took a looooong time to build up his reputation, but he won consistently, so he gained a following and slowly built up his clientele. I wouldn't quit your day job though, because all it takes is a few losses before people start losing faith. I was actually thinking about getting in the business as a side hobby because I was consistently kicking ass in baseball. For a few years, I made some pretty good money off of it. Then I started giving out free plays with full, detailed writeups, and wouldn't you know it, that's when I started losing. I don't really bet that much anymore because of lack of time, and as I get older, I have more obligations and value money much more than to risk it gambling.

But, as you said, the thrill of sports gambling is great, and it's given me some very memorable moments, both good and bad.

 

[Desperado34]

You should try draft kings and daily fantasy. I throw like $3-$9 for some fun on golf with some buddies, it's a blast.

I'm still struggling with this. At one point you guys are saying the odds aren't based off of who the bookies believe will win, but the general consensus of the bettors. So, I mean.. Wtf is there job then other to move the line too far