I want to talk about roster construction in general.

[beckdawg]

Almora WAR = 0.6

Good stuff.

What part of potential do you not comprehend? If he's a league average hitter with his defense he's probably close to a 3 win player. Clearly he's not that right now but I wasn't making the case that he already was a 3 win player. His first ~450 PAs in the majors he was a better than league average hitter. Since then sure the league has caught up to him. So, he's going to have to adjust back to the league. But he's not a .253 hitter. Realistically he's probably more like .280-.300. His BABIP is also 50 points lower than his career rate.

Regardless, to label Almora a bad pick is asinine. Gavin Cecchini was taken 5 picks after Almora and he's a career .217/.270/.301 hitter. Russell was taken 4 picks after Almora. Courtney Hawkins was taken 6 picks after Almora and has never played in the majors. I could go on and on here. Point here being, few picks are the monumental home runs of a Baez/Bryant. If you even get a guy to make the majors that's generally a decent floor. If they are even half way useful there(Russell/Almora) it was a fairly decent pick as opposed to guys like Cecchini and Hawkins.

People have far too unrealistic expectation of draft picks. There's 15 players in the first 60 picks who have more career bWAR than Almora. 6 of those 15 were college players who simply played more games than he has as a HS guy. He's at 4.0. There's only 6 guys over 10. If they "missed" on anyone it was Corey Seager but 17 other teams missed on him too. But the simple fact of the matter is the 2012 draft class just wasn't that strong.

 

[CSF77]

Oops.

Dan was always good. They did not need another 1B/DH type.

I think I will take the final out in 2016 over a late bloomer.

 

[CSF77]

What part of potential do you not comprehend? If he's a league average hitter with his defense he's probably close to a 3 win player. Clearly he's not that right now but I wasn't making the case that he already was a 3 win player. His first ~450 PAs in the majors he was a better than league average hitter. Since then sure the league has caught up to him. So, he's going to have to adjust back to the league. But he's not a .253 hitter. Realistically he's probably more like .280-.300. His BABIP is also 50 points lower than his career rate.

Regardless, to label Almora a bad pick is asinine. Gavin Cecchini was taken 5 picks after Almora and he's a career .217/.270/.301 hitter. Russell was taken 4 picks after Almora. Courtney Hawkins was taken 6 picks after Almora and has never played in the majors. I could go on and on here. Point here being, few picks are the monumental home runs of a Baez/Bryant. If you even get a guy to make the majors that's generally a decent floor. If they are even half way useful there(Russell/Almora) it was a fairly decent pick as opposed to guys like Cecchini and Hawkins.

People have far too unrealistic expectation of draft picks. There's 15 players in the first 60 picks who have more career bWAR than Almora. 6 of those 15 were college players who simply played more games than he has as a HS guy. He's at 4.0. There's only 6 guys over 10. If they "missed" on anyone it was Corey Seager but 17 other teams missed on him too. But the simple fact of the matter is the 2012 draft class just wasn't that strong.

I wanted Fried that draft. Pads picked him after Almora. But there were a few that dropped and Theo held to his guns. His first good draft was picking Bryant. He fits the prototype that they want. Almora at best = Castro with a plus glove. IE 4th OF.

 

[TL1961]

I would argue that Cubs have tried to pay up for an offense and starting pitching. But the FO has had a series of missteps like Heyward and Garbish/Chatwood. So you've got a ton of money tied up in 3 guys who are actually hurting the team.

Swap out Garbish with Arrieta and Heyward with Harper, and this team is in a much different place.

I can live with a crappola bullpen if the rest of the team is doing what they need to do.

If you swap Heyward and Harper in 2019, we would be worse. Factor in the effect of harpers addl money and we’d be worse still as we likely would not have Hamel.

 

[TL1961]

And posts like this prove that you are suckled on Theo's bag.

1. When has Theo ever gone to the press about inside the clubhouse business? EVER?? He only started leaking this information this year.

2. Boston won with theo in 2013, finished in last place in 2014 and 2015. Let google be your friend and search worst boston free agent signings and Crawford and Ramirez are listed there, two out of the top 6. Not by genius know it all message board posters, but guys that get paid to write. The won in spite of Crawford like they won in spite of Heyward.

3. Well, not everybody. I am pretty sure I wrote that you gave your ace, cy young winning, two no hitter pitching best hurler a take it or leave it offer the day before they wasted the signing on Darvish.

4. Give it time, you know, that same time we were supposed to give Theo when he got here, to find the talent, develop it and bring it to the major league roster.

5. Playoff wins and titles are what define success.

6. Well, to be as redundant as you are, playoff wins and titles are what define success. (The post was about his free agent choices numb nuts)

You did not let me down, I knew I could count on you to prove you do not look at this like many others do, otherwise, why in the hell did Boston allow Theo to leave?

A WS and a last place finish is better than two second place finishes, and it isn’t even close.

If Theo were let go by the Cubs 29 teams would be interested.

 

[TL1961]

And as far as any so called Joe Theo issue. If there is there should take be. If anything Joe has made what Theo has done legit. His first year was ahead
2nd year won it all. 3rd year kept a bad team in. 4th year injury plagued team that was in it to the end.

It would be a escape goat that would implode. The farm is one of the worse. So no future. Cap capped. Invested into under production.

If anything they should beg Joe to stay as I see it.

I don’t like the argument that the farm is bad.

It’s like praising Farmer A for having better or more crops in the field because Farmer B’s more bountiful harvest is already on the table.

 

[CSF77]

I don’t like the argument that the farm is bad.

It’s like praising Farmer A for having better or more crops in the field because Farmer B’s more bountiful harvest is already on the table.

They have missed on talent more than hit. That goes beyond luck. It has more to do with talent types and system development.

The ones that they hit on already had polish at draft.

But when they drafted Davis I see that as a change in philosophy. He was a high celing type.

But they have avoided taking top end pitching types. If they are picking near 30 they seem ok with it. Closer to 20 they go back to the old steady.

 

[TL1961]

Everyone misses more than they hit in the mlb draft

 

[Rory Sparrow]

What part of potential do you not comprehend?

The part where you said Almora was likely a 3.0 WAR player. Your takes in this forum are consistently ridiculous.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Dan was always good. They did not need another 1B/DH type.

I think I will take the final out in 2016 over a late bloomer.

Great. I was commenting on your complete dismissal of Vogelbach in your 'evaluation'..."Blackburn might turn out ok".

 

[anotheridiot]

I wanted Fried that draft. Pads picked him after Almora. But there were a few that dropped and Theo held to his guns. His first good draft was picking Bryant. He fits the prototype that they want. Almora at best = Castro with a plus glove. IE 4th OF.

and those guns were, we develop position players, we buy pitching. Almora was his Ellsbury.
2015 rolls around, and he is buying position players. They won the world series in spite of having Heyward hitting .220 and grounding into double plays. Zobrist, yes, Heyward no.

Then we could not live with Soler argument comes in (23 home runs this year if you want to check) because we got the stones of wade davis.
What exactly did Wade davis win us? Oh, would have been back to back world titles but the bats fell asleep.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

I love how this forum can view the Quintana trade as "not making sense", and at the same time in July 2019 think the Cubs 'won' the Soler-Davis trade.

 

[CSF77]

Great. I was commenting on your complete dismissal of Vogelbach in your 'evaluation'..."Blackburn might turn out ok".

It was a Necro post.... Nice going there. Vogy at that point was a bust. And even this year he is Schwarber 2.0. at least Schwarber can field his position proper and catch if needed.

So a guy that breaks 10 HR's and took forever to get to that point I wouldn't go chiming about. There are far better success stories in baseball.

 

[CSF77]

I love how this forum can view the Quintana trade as "not making sense", and at the same time in July 2019 think the Cubs 'won' the Soler-Davis trade.

What makes no sense is comparing future for current needs. They needed a closer. They needed a starter with control. Everything else is just crybaby stuff.

 

[CSF77]

I would instead look at Chatwood. He was a kneejerk reaction after losing on Ohtani. Yu made sense it just has not panned out to date. Heyward took 3 years to come to contract value.

This is a problem with the guaranteed contract in MLB. Other sports are not and creates more of a urgency to perform.

 

[DanTown]

The guys who have succeeded the most on the Cubs at the current moment (Contreras, Baez, Bryant) have all tinkered and changed their approach and swings over the past few years. Besides being thinner, I don't see how Schwarber has changed anything since 2015/2016; Almora and Russell look the same at the plate with what they're trying and able to do.

No hitter is talented enough to come up and just never adjust. You're seeing it with Ian Happ; the book on how to pitch him is out and he's never changed that with how pitchers pitch him. There's no other way to suggest how he can go from slugging .619 to .379 in the same league two years later.

With regards to the pitchers, I have no earthly idea what the hell they're doing at the MLB level. A guy like Yu, I can see what they're doing at a high level - the cutter is by far his most valuable pitch so he should throw it more. But the thing I'm noticing is that there's been a sharp increase in the speed of his other breaking pitches without an increase in his fastball so the hitters' timing is no longer being thrown off as much but he has been able to reduce the speed on the cutter. So while the cutter has become more valuable, the pitch he throws by far the most, the fastball, has gone from about an average pitch to terribly below average. Until Yu can get the fastball back to being an ok pitch, nothing else matters.

 

[DanTown]

You know, if the team had traded an out-for-the-year Schwarber for Andrew Miller, they don't trade Torres for Chapman and don't trade Soler for Davis. It's a move I HATED at the time and still do to this day, made worse by watching Torres tear up the AL and Russell not have a .750 OPS. The thing about Russell was his value was always derived from being a high value defensive SS; if Javy is your everyday SS than Russell is simply a below average value because 2B defense isn't that valuable and he still has not had a 100 OPS+ season batting (peaked in 2016 at 95)

 

[anotheridiot]

Well, this is where we stand. KB is out with a knee, Heyward out with back issues, and they bring up an infielder. Sounds like some disconnect.

 

[anotheridiot]

The guys who have succeeded the most on the Cubs at the current moment (Contreras, Baez, Bryant) have all tinkered and changed their approach and swings over the past few years. Besides being thinner, I don't see how Schwarber has changed anything since 2015/2016; Almora and Russell look the same at the plate with what they're trying and able to do.

No hitter is talented enough to come up and just never adjust. You're seeing it with Ian Happ; the book on how to pitch him is out and he's never changed that with how pitchers pitch him. There's no other way to suggest how he can go from slugging .619 to .379 in the same league two years later.

With regards to the pitchers, I have no earthly idea what the hell they're doing at the MLB level. A guy like Yu, I can see what they're doing at a high level - the cutter is by far his most valuable pitch so he should throw it more. But the thing I'm noticing is that there's been a sharp increase in the speed of his other breaking pitches without an increase in his fastball so the hitters' timing is no longer being thrown off as much but he has been able to reduce the speed on the cutter. So while the cutter has become more valuable, the pitch he throws by far the most, the fastball, has gone from about an average pitch to terribly below average. Until Yu can get the fastball back to being an ok pitch, nothing else matters.

Schwarber changed by going back to his 2015 squatted approach.

The hitting mentality seems to be guess pitches when you have 2 strikes against you instead of protecting. It is still dont worry about the shifts because you are going to hit a line drive or home run every at bat. Hit the grounders thru the three infielders on that side. That is why NONE of these players will ever be known as great hitters.

The way JD and Len was talking, Yu threw too many cutters and not enough fastballs last night. For a guy that has an arsenal that there are not enough fingers on a catcher to call, he sure seems to fall in love with one.

 

[Raskolnikov]

With the manufacturers admission that they have sunken the seams on the baseball, does this change your ideal roster construction projections significantly?

I will point out that the Dodgers (who have pitching), are +165. The Twins who have big power bats are +119. The Yankees who have no pitching, but power bats galore, are +120. Houston who has pop up and down the line-up, and pitching, are +116.

Basically, the ball doesn't cut for pitchers, and the ball flies farther off power bats.

Roster construction without ball reversal should be based on past success builds in Coors Field, because that is where everyone is now playing by ball design.

That means power bats, and pitchers with heat and a tricky change-up. The finesse of the game is dead until they fix that shit and rosters should be built accordingly?