IGT: NLCS Chicago vs Los Angeles Game 3

[brett05]

I'll give you my outs every single time for runs. I think I'll be ok with 27 runs per game.

 

[DanTown]

The idea that the Cubs need to overhaul their bullpen is alarmist and frankly giving far too much weight to the October portion of their calendar. While Edwards showed he had command issues all year with 5+ BB/9, that's almost 1.7 walks higher than his total last year. If he comes back to what he was in 2015, he's fine.

The Cubs had four relievers with sub 3.5 FIP (Dunesing, Davis, Edwards, Strop), another guy at 3.79 (Uehera), traded for a guy who was at 3.23 in Wilson. They just all went bad at around the same time when you can't all go bad. But the idea that this team somehow needs to add or spend more for arms in the pen is strange. Sure there will likely be changes (Rondon and Grimm are two potential non-arb guys, Koji will retire) but bullpens are volatile year to year.

 

[DanTown]

I'll give you my outs every single time for runs. I think I'll be ok with 27 runs per game.

That's not the point of advancing a runner. You don't automatically get a run for moving a runner from second to third or first to second by sacrificing an out.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The idea that the Cubs need to overhaul their bullpen is alarmist and frankly giving far too much weight to the October portion of their calendar. While Edwards showed he had command issues all year with 5+ BB/9, that's almost 1.7 walks higher than his total last year. If he comes back to what he was in 2015, he's fine.

The Cubs had four relievers with sub 3.5 FIP (Dunesing, Davis, Edwards, Strop), another guy at 3.79 (Uehera), traded for a guy who was at 3.23 in Wilson. They just all went bad at around the same time when you can't all go bad. But the idea that this team somehow needs to add or spend more for arms in the pen is strange. Sure there will likely be changes (Rondon and Grimm are two potential non-arb guys, Koji will retire) but bullpens are volatile year to year.

The key thing I think people forget about bullpens is that, with few exceptions, guys don't set out to be relievers, they set out to be starters and they did not succeed. The most common reason is that they're inconsistent. Think of how most of the top relievers change every year. It used to be even more pronounced to the point where pen guys seemed to be an every other year proposition. Training regiments and data have changed that some but the concept remains. You can't build a super bullpen, you simply can't do it. You hope to have a large pool of arms and find the effective ones. Then you augment that with a guy or two that has shown some consistency. Going out and spending a ton of money on a non-closer pen arm is usually not successful (Brett Cecil anyone?). I still the core of the pen. Edwards is a solid pitcher and can regain his command at any time, Strop is an exception to the consistency rule and is good every year, I'd bring back Duensing if the price is reasonable and if you sign Davis that's a great start.

 

[anotheridiot]

Sometimes I forget how young this team still is. This collapse is actually less surprising than winning it last year. They will patch up the lineup and they will be back.

This is a very interesting point I think about alot.

Russell 23
Baez 24
Rizzo 28
Bryant 25
Contrares 25
Happ 23
Heyward 28
Almora 23
Schwarber 24

We are going to have this team for a long time. What holes get filled without moving one of these along.

If Javy would start poking the ball to right field he would develop into that leadoff hitter we lack. He is pure electricity on the bases. If he would pick one pitch to swing for the lake and the rest controlled he would be one of the best in the game. He is already there defensively.

Can we say we will be "stuck" with this team when 20 some other cities would love it?

I am sorry, but the hitting coach has to leave and someone that preaches to hit the ball where the defense is not needs to get here quick. We all know the shift does not effect balls going into the seats, but how many more times does it mean a grounder to the shift.

 

[DanTown]

The key thing I think people forget about bullpens is that, with few exceptions, guys don't set out to be relievers, they set out to be starters and they did not succeed. The most common reason is that they're inconsistent. Think of how most of the top relievers change every year. It used to be even more pronounced to the point where pen guys seemed to be an every other year proposition. Training regiments and data have changed that some but the concept remains. You can't build a super bullpen, you simply can't do it. You hope to have a large pool of arms and find the effective ones. Then you augment that with a guy or two that has shown some consistency. Going out and spending a ton of money on a non-closer pen arm is usually not successful (Brett Cecil anyone?). I still the core of the pen. Edwards is a solid pitcher and can regain his command at any time, Strop is an exception to the consistency rule and is good every year, I'd bring back Duensing if the price is reasonable and if you sign Davis that's a great start.

Four of the top 21 NL relievers in FIP; traded for another top 25 reliever in the AL in Wilson. They were middling in things like FIP and WAR as a bullpen because of how many bad relievers they had "close" games like Grimm, Pena, and Zas. The problem for the Cubs is the team they're playing DID make the moves to find three elite relievers this year and they have four elite starters.

At the end of the day, I didn't expect this team to win this series before the year started, at any point during the first few months, and I definitely didn't expect them to win this series after the Dodgers got Darvish.

 

[Parade_Rain]

The key thing I think people forget about bullpens is that, with few exceptions, guys don't set out to be relievers, they set out to be starters and they did not succeed. The most common reason is that they're inconsistent. Think of how most of the top relievers change every year. It used to be even more pronounced to the point where pen guys seemed to be an every other year proposition. Training regiments and data have changed that some but the concept remains. You can't build a super bullpen, you simply can't do it. You hope to have a large pool of arms and find the effective ones. Then you augment that with a guy or two that has shown some consistency. Going out and spending a ton of money on a non-closer pen arm is usually not successful (Brett Cecil anyone?). I still the core of the pen. Edwards is a solid pitcher and can regain his command at any time, Strop is an exception to the consistency rule and is good every year, I'd bring back Duensing if the price is reasonable and if you sign Davis that's a great start.

I'm not 100% sure about the consistency part of becoming a reliever. A big part of it is that a starter needs 3 plus pitches. If you can only master two, it's bullpen time.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I'm not 100% sure about the consistency part of becoming a reliever. A big part of it is that a starter needs 3 plus pitches. If you can only master two, it's bullpen time.

That's certainly part of it too. My larger point was that bullpen pitchers are tough to gauge and that they are inconsistent. To me the key is stockpiling as many arms as possible and finding the guys to perform. If there's one guy you really think fits, like the Cubs did with Uehara this year, you might spend a little money but spending rarely gets you out of a bullpen bind.

 

[DrGonzo]

With their positional players yes but their starting pitching is definitely not young. Both Jake and Lackey will be gone. That leaves Quintana, Lester and Hendricks with 2 voids to fill. Their farm is not producing arms and the middle relief is suspect. Wade is going to command big bucks in free agency so most likely the Cubs pitching from start to bottom is going to look a lot different next year.

True, but Theo's strategy all along has been to develop bats and buy pitching. Rickets has deep pockets so it has been working up til now.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Four of the top 21 NL relievers in FIP; traded for another top 25 reliever in the AL in Wilson. They were middling in things like FIP and WAR as a bullpen because of how many bad relievers they had "close" games like Grimm, Pena, and Zas. The problem for the Cubs is the team they're playing DID make the moves to find three elite relievers this year and they have four elite starters.

At the end of the day, I didn't expect this team to win this series before the year started, at any point during the first few months, and I definitely didn't expect them to win this series after the Dodgers got Darvish.

That's where you were right and I was wrong. I didn't think the Dodgers would get this far, I was thinking Diamondbacks all the way and actually thought that was going to be a tougher series than going up against LA. Regardless I thought whoever won the Chicago-Washington series was going win the NL. Clearly I was mistaken.

All that said, from the outset I never had an expectation to win another World Series this year. It's just too tough, too much of a grind and this team had some flaws.

 

[Diehardfan]

That's where you were right and I was wrong. I didn't think the Dodgers would get this far, I was thinking Diamondbacks all the way and actually thought that was going to be a tougher series than going up against LA. Regardless I thought whoever won the Chicago-Washington series was going win the NL. Clearly I was mistaken.

All that said, from the outset I never had an expectation to win another World Series this year. It's just too tough, too much of a grind and this team had some flaws.

They got about as far as I expected they would....maybe just a bit further thanks to the playoff hebejebes heaped on Dusty Baker. I mean you could see it by mid-season. Some teams have that feel as in the Dodgers and Astros....others, while pretty good teams just seem like they are lacking that certain "something" that makes teams winners....as in the Cubs and Washington.

 

[beckdawg]

That's a weird complaint to make about a team that scores 40% of their runs via the HR when the league average for runs scored via HR is...40%.

My entire point is that it's harder to get something going when you aren't hitting home runs. I'm not saying they need to totally change their line up or anything but having one guy who can help create their own scoring opportunities would help. As things stand right now you have a group who if someone gets a single you then need 2 hits or a HR to score runs. If the guy who gets a hit were able to steal some bases you only need a hit to the outfield to have a chance at scoring.

In my opinion this is why you often see the unevenness the cubs have with run production where they go through spells where they either score 6 runs or 1-2 for weeks on end. Not saying the cubs are the only team built this way either. It was long a way of building your team during the steroid era. I just feel like they have too many guys who can walk and hit HRs but not enough guys like Almora who put balls into play and not enough speed.

 

[Diehardfan]

My entire point is that it's harder to get something going when you aren't hitting home runs. I'm not saying they need to totally change their line up or anything but having one guy who can help create their own scoring opportunities would help. As things stand right now you have a group who if someone gets a single you then need 2 hits or a HR to score runs. If the guy who gets a hit were able to steal some bases you only need a hit to the outfield to have a chance at scoring.

In my opinion this is why you often see the unevenness the cubs have with run production where they go through spells where they either score 6 runs or 1-2 for weeks on end. Not saying the cubs are the only team built this way either. It was long a way of building your team during the steroid era. I just feel like they have too many guys who can walk and hit HRs but not enough guys like Almora who put balls into play and not enough speed.

If it's me...I try to fix a one of the problems in house. I tell Almora...hey, we're counting on you next season and here's what we need for you to work on in the offseason. I mean getting a kid who can run and play CF like he can to take some pitches, get on base more often, maybe learn to bunt really well and become the leadoff man this team really needs would be a Godsend.

The question is....can he change his offensive style to be that player?

 

[anotheridiot]

True, but Theo's strategy all along has been to develop bats and buy pitching. Rickets has deep pockets so it has been working up til now.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

But who did he buy? Lester? Lackee? They are not buying Jake, Davis was a trade and is still 10 mil not the 20 he will get, Q was a deal for one of the most electrifying prospects in the game so we would get him relatively cheap for the next few years.

Who has he paid? The could have kept Travis here, but they would have had to pay. Monty is still relatively cheap and was traded for. They have not made the blockbuster move since Lester, so I dont know about them deep pockets. They used that money to buy the buildings they put out of the rooftop business.

 

[Diehardfan]

I'm not 100% sure about the consistency part of becoming a reliever. A big part of it is that a starter needs 3 plus pitches. If you can only master two, it's bullpen time.

IMOP, unless those two pitches are really good....it's AAA time. Perfect example is Grimm....avg FB, good curve. If he can't throw the curve for strikes(which he usually can't) he's dead meat. The guy really needs a 3rd pitch and he's a bullpen guy.

 

[Parade_Rain]

IMOP, unless those two pitches are really good....it's AAA time. Perfect example is Grimm....avg FB, good curve. If he can't throw the curve for strikes(which he usually can't) he's dead meat. The guy really needs a 3rd pitch and he's a bullpen guy.

That's why I used the word "plus" when discussing pitches. A RP only needs a FB and a second pitch to keep a batter guessing for an inning.

 

[DanTown]

My entire point is that it's harder to get something going when you aren't hitting home runs. I'm not saying they need to totally change their line up or anything but having one guy who can help create their own scoring opportunities would help. As things stand right now you have a group who if someone gets a single you then need 2 hits or a HR to score runs. If the guy who gets a hit were able to steal some bases you only need a hit to the outfield to have a chance at scoring.

In my opinion this is why you often see the unevenness the cubs have with run production where they go through spells where they either score 6 runs or 1-2 for weeks on end. Not saying the cubs are the only team built this way either. It was long a way of building your team during the steroid era. I just feel like they have too many guys who can walk and hit HRs but not enough guys like Almora who put balls into play and not enough speed.

Again, you’re describing the sport and not the Cubs specifically. The Dodgers last night hit two HR + a triple. This was a team (LA) that went 1-16 at one point but has won six straight playoff games. No team consistently scores runs in the playoffs. Cleveland went 4-9-0-3-2 and got bounced. Yankees are 4-3 in the playoffs scoring 0-8-1-7-5-1-1-8-6.

This is the exact same thing they as an organization did last year. The only difference was instead of down 3-0, they were down 2-1 because they won a game 1-0. And that was a lineup with more hitters performing well (Fowler, Zo) but mostly the same guys. And then they won 3 straight.

 

[chibears55]

What surprise me over the offseason and deadline was that they went away from the power pitchers for the pen..

They ended up just adding Duensing Uehara and Davis in offseason and Wilson at deadline..
Outside of Davis who was great as closer they didnt do anything to strengthen the late innings of pen..

They basically were relying on Rondon Strop and Edwards to be their power arms and then i guess Wilson who busted..

I hope if anything, outside of hopefully maintaing Davis, they look to add at least 2 power arms for the 7th/8th inning..

Right now i can see
Edwards Strop Wilson and probably Montgomery returning..

Theyll need a closer, which i hope they can work sonething out with Davis..

At least 2 others, which i hope are power arms for late innings..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

What surprise me over the offseason and deadline was that they went away from the power pitchers for the pen..

They ended up just adding Duensing Uehara and Davis in offseason and Wilson at deadline..
Outside of Davis who was great as closer they didnt do anything to strengthen the late innings of pen..

They basically were relying on Rondon Strop and Edwards to be their power arms and then i guess Wilson who busted..

I hope if anything, outside of hopefully maintaing Davis, they look to add at least 2 power arms for the 7th/8th inning..

Right now i can see
Edwards Strop Wilson and probably Montgomery returning..

Theyll need a closer, which i hope they can work sonething out with Davis..

At least 2 others, which i hope are power arms for late innings..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

They're going to need to find 7-8 arms for the pen. Some will be depth at AAA. I'd like Duensing if for no other reason I'm assuming Montgomery will compete with Tseng for the 5th starters role.

 

[chibears55]

They're going to need to find 7-8 arms for the pen. Some will be depth at AAA. I'd like Duensing if for no other reason I'm assuming Montgomery will compete with Tseng for the 5th starters role.

I was just going with the 25 man...

I think Alec Mills and Tseng will be top contenders for that 5th spot..

Adbert Azolay will be kept an eye on for later in season or next year...

I think we seen that Montgomery best suited for the pen and emergency starts .

They probably don't resign Duensing with Wilson already signed ...

If they dont add a 3rd lefty via trade or signing they have guys like Zastryzny in system they can add..


Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk