IST: Brewers vs Cubs

SilenceS

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They didn't trade for a #3 guy. They traded for a guy who'd pitched like a solid 2 if not better who had 3.5 years of control. I mean look at what pitt just gave up for archer who the past 3 years has a 4.02, a 4.07 and this year a 4.36 ERA.

The move wasnt bad. People are arm chair quarterbacking. Jiminez was outside the Cubs window to win or would have been very young. Cease hurt me more, but he still has his issues. Cubs were going for multiple championships. People who ***** about the trade will also ***** if the Cubs dont win 4 straight ships.
 

CSF77

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They didn't trade for a #3 guy. They traded for a guy who'd pitched like a solid 2 if not better who had 3.5 years of control. I mean look at what pitt just gave up for archer who the past 3 years has a 4.02, a 4.07 and this year a 4.36 ERA.

I think they over payed myself.
 

CSF77

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The move wasnt bad. People are arm chair quarterbacking. Jiminez was outside the Cubs window to win or would have been very young. Cease hurt me more, but he still has his issues. Cubs were going for multiple championships. People who ***** about the trade will also ***** if the Cubs dont win 4 straight ships.

Not that at all. More about value. You add a nice 3rd guy and you would have the trade weight to get anything. Sale cost little more than what the Cubs gave up. And honestly looking at it today the pieces are trending better.

Regardless as it stands today I concider Q not a part of a play off rotation. He has a month to figure it out. But that is even before adding Darvish into the mix.

I would put it as he would be the default if Jon just fell off the table and even then Montgomery has been better.



End of the day as I’ve seen it for every Arrieta/Strop/Edwards/Hendricks/Hamels. There is a Q/Chatwood/Jackson/Heyward (til now)

It just feels like that they are far better at targeting smaller deals that prove to be far better vs going mega and it ends up backwards.

Now I didn’t add Darvish or Lester to this. I believe in both myself. Both have been staff leaders coming in and are worth their pay days. Q would not get that deal today and has a whole shit ton of fixing his issues to get that pay day.
 

chibears55

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The move wasnt bad. People are arm chair quarterbacking. Jiminez was outside the Cubs window to win or would have been very young. Cease hurt me more, but he still has his issues. Cubs were going for multiple championships. People who ***** about the trade will also ***** if the Cubs dont win 4 straight ships.
Not sure how you figure Jiminez was outside their window to win...
He could of been brought up at some point this year or at the latest next year.

Do you not see this team competing for the next 3 to 5 years with the current core players?




Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk
 

beckdawg

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Not that at all. More about value. You add a nice 3rd guy and you would have the trade weight to get anything. Sale cost little more than what the Cubs gave up. And honestly looking at it today the pieces are trending better.

You're assuming that trade was available when there were specific reports at the time that the sox wouldn't deal sale in town. That's the problem with hindsight analysis. People always assume the trade was there for your team. I think it's more likely the market for Q dried up giving his pitching style(he was never a high k rate guy) and the fact that he was having a poor start to the year. That mattered less to the cubs because A) he pitched like a cubs pitcher when he was good and B) the cubs didn't have a ton of options. Ultimately there's a reason players get traded. If they are on the market to begin with you're almost certainly going to have warts. Sonny Gray was traded at the same time and look where he is right now.

I think people also are overreacting on what they lost. Eloy is a good hitter but he's a pure LF. In other words, if he's not a better pro hitter than Schwarber it's a very moot point because his bat has to carry his overall profile. I'm not trying to undersell his bat either but if he's just a 130 wRC+ as a LF he's not really that big of a deal. For example, say he's Nelson Cruz. Cruz is a career 130 wRC+ hitter. He's a good hitter but has he ever truly been the guy you build a team around? He needs to be more Aaron Judge or JD Martinez. As SlienceS said, Cease is the bigger loss in my eyes. But there's enough issues with his walk rate that it worries me he may never reach his ceiling. He's never had a walk rate under 3.5 per 9 at any level. He has all the stuff he needs but you don't reach ace level with 3.5 bb/9.

Regardless, I honestly think it's a wasted point to bring this trade up. Unless Cease ends up a #1 or #2 starter the cubs have more than enough interesting arms who can be #3-5 starters. And as for Eloy they have either the #1 or #2 offense already in baseball depending on how you measure it. There is of course the argument to be made that other trades may have been out there but I'd counter with who? The pirates weren't trading Cole in division. Gray hasn't worked out either. Sale if you can show me where it was an actual possibility would make sense but the reporting was the sox wouldn't move him unless they got bryant which is a "**** off" offer. Cubs clearly talked to tampa about Archer at multiple points.

And I think it's worth pointing out Q could just as easily find his groove again this offseason. I mean look how shitty people thought Heyward was. Q isn't *that* bad. If he regains his form this offseason you still got him really cheap for 2 more years.
 

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The move wasnt bad. People are arm chair quarterbacking. Jiminez was outside the Cubs window to win or would have been very young. Cease hurt me more, but he still has his issues. Cubs were going for multiple championships. People who ***** about the trade will also ***** if the Cubs dont win 4 straight ships.

Players have up and down years, maybe he will eventually show something but this has zero to do with how many times they win a WS. It has everything to do with the fact that as it stands right now, they paid for a Rolex and are getting a Timex.
 

fatbeard

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Think the facts outweigh anything else. But sure it could be coincidental. But I don’t believe for a second in that. Now I have heard analysis on his fastball command being off. That goes back with the Sox. Yet again Theo had this info and still gave up the talent that gets back a legit ace.

Honestly it comes down to opening day. Lester is tour ace and they traded a ace deck for a #3 guy.

I really wish that Theo would take his own advise when trading for Cole more often. Pay for a track record. Add a quality piece and he has a deal that gained Sale. Just saying.

The facts are that his fastball is significantly less effective for him than it was when he was a ~5 fWAR pitcher. He hasn't lost velocity, but he's either not locating it like he used to, or it's got less movement on it. I go with the former as his BB% and HRs have risen in kind. Everything else about "mental toughness" is just baseless. Would be interesting to see a Fangraphs chart of his release point over time.
 

CSF77

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You're assuming that trade was available when there were specific reports at the time that the sox wouldn't deal sale in town. That's the problem with hindsight analysis. People always assume the trade was there for your team. I think it's more likely the market for Q dried up giving his pitching style(he was never a high k rate guy) and the fact that he was having a poor start to the year. That mattered less to the cubs because A) he pitched like a cubs pitcher when he was good and B) the cubs didn't have a ton of options. Ultimately there's a reason players get traded. If they are on the market to begin with you're almost certainly going to have warts. Sonny Gray was traded at the same time and look where he is right now.

I think people also are overreacting on what they lost. Eloy is a good hitter but he's a pure LF. In other words, if he's not a better pro hitter than Schwarber it's a very moot point because his bat has to carry his overall profile. I'm not trying to undersell his bat either but if he's just a 130 wRC+ as a LF he's not really that big of a deal. For example, say he's Nelson Cruz. Cruz is a career 130 wRC+ hitter. He's a good hitter but has he ever truly been the guy you build a team around? He needs to be more Aaron Judge or JD Martinez. As SlienceS said, Cease is the bigger loss in my eyes. But there's enough issues with his walk rate that it worries me he may never reach his ceiling. He's never had a walk rate under 3.5 per 9 at any level. He has all the stuff he needs but you don't reach ace level with 3.5 bb/9.

Regardless, I honestly think it's a wasted point to bring this trade up. Unless Cease ends up a #1 or #2 starter the cubs have more than enough interesting arms who can be #3-5 starters. And as for Eloy they have either the #1 or #2 offense already in baseball depending on how you measure it. There is of course the argument to be made that other trades may have been out there but I'd counter with who? The pirates weren't trading Cole in division. Gray hasn't worked out either. Sale if you can show me where it was an actual possibility would make sense but the reporting was the sox wouldn't move him unless they got bryant which is a "**** off" offer. Cubs clearly talked to tampa about Archer at multiple points.

And I think it's worth pointing out Q could just as easily find his groove again this offseason. I mean look how shitty people thought Heyward was. Q isn't *that* bad. If he regains his form this offseason you still got him really cheap for 2 more years.

Little to do with Sale. It has more to do with trade weight. The Cubs could have pulled Sale in value. Not Sale. Sale is a top 3 starter. We are talking going to the Mets and asking for Syndagard level trade weight.
 

CSF77

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I think what I’m saying is if a better offer is not there then do nothing. I believe they panicked with the piss poor 1/2 half and sold the farm.

What they did this year was smarter. Attacked in the off season and went with deprecated value deals for non-prospect level talent. This year has been a return to form from this team. Sure the guys they gave up we’re achieving well in the minors but none were priemium goods. And you get a 2 inning arm and a TOR and a set up for basically guys not even on a prospect list with Butler who was out of options...

IDK that to me kinda made up for the Q deal but honestly if you have the gold goose you don’t aim at the ugly stepsister.
 

CSF77

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The facts are that his fastball is significantly less effective for him than it was when he was a ~5 fWAR pitcher. He hasn't lost velocity, but he's either not locating it like he used to, or it's got less movement on it. I go with the former as his BB% and HRs have risen in kind. Everything else about "mental toughness" is just baseless. Would be interesting to see a Fangraphs chart of his release point over time.

With all of the scouting data and video tech going on pitchers are able to id and fix flaws. Even improve on them. Hendricks did this in season and he is his team mate. By saying this and because it is a known fact. And adding to it that he has not lost talent. Doesn't that kinda support a weak mental approach. When you have all of the tools and you still can't?

Even then: This was happening back with the sox 2017. This is really not a new development. This is ongoing drama.
 

beckdawg

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Little to do with Sale. It has more to do with trade weight. The Cubs could have pulled Sale in value. Not Sale. Sale is a top 3 starter. We are talking going to the Mets and asking for Syndagard level trade weight.

Syndergaard wasn't dealt. Neither was deGrom. Assuming they would have been is illogical. There are plenty of teams that have just as much ammo as the cubs did prior to the Q trade. And this sort of hindsight logic also ignores the elephant in the room which is the cubs needed a pitcher in 2017 or they probably didn't make the run they did to get into the playoffs.

Also why is it always this trade people focus on? If we're taking do-overs think the Chapman trade was a far more compelling example of an overpay. I also think the wilson trade didn't really work out value wise. If you want to argue they don't win the world series without chapman that's fine. I don't agree. As we've seen with Chavez and Kintzler and even that year in 2016 with Monty, you can add depth to your bullpen without paying a top 10 prospect. Sure you're gambling on that being good enough but people always seem to forget there were multiple games where chapman wasn't lights out in the playoffs.
 

brett05

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And Brett: he was on a decline going into the trade. Sure his track record was top 20 SP but IMO if you don’t establish your self as a staff leader you are a follower and you don’t break the bank in that.

He was top 12 material even with the slump in the first half. His peripherals were still there. I think it's fair to question Q. I think it's fair to question the Cubs staff too.
But let's look at Q. He's much better even this year than credit is being given him.

His first 4 starts he's got a 7.78 era with walking over 5 per 9 and whiffing less than 7.5 a game.
His next 15 starts he's got an era of 2.96 walking 4 per 9 and whiffing 8.1 a game.
His last 4 starts he's back to the beginning of the season though his walks improve to 2.7, his era is back to 7.52 and a dip back to 7.5 Ks per game.

Slow start for 2018 Q Part 1 , Adjusted 2018 Q Part II, What's happened with his last four? Hurt? Bad Coaching? Bad Q? Hard to say.

But the Cubs aren't in first without his 15 start stretch.
 

Parade_Rain

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Syndergaard wasn't dealt. Neither was deGrom. Assuming they would have been is illogical. There are plenty of teams that have just as much ammo as the cubs did prior to the Q trade. And this sort of hindsight logic also ignores the elephant in the room which is the cubs needed a pitcher in 2017 or they probably didn't make the run they did to get into the playoffs.

Also why is it always this trade people focus on? If we're taking do-overs think the Chapman trade was a far more compelling example of an overpay. I also think the wilson trade didn't really work out value wise. If you want to argue they don't win the world series without chapman that's fine. I don't agree. As we've seen with Chavez and Kintzler and even that year in 2016 with Monty, you can add depth to your bullpen without paying a top 10 prospect. Sure you're gambling on that being good enough but people always seem to forget there were multiple games where chapman wasn't lights out in the playoffs.
Chapman trade got the Cubs over the top to win its first WS in 108 years. Chapman clearly performed, too.
 

brett05

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Not that at all. More about value. You add a nice 3rd guy and you would have the trade weight to get anything. Sale cost little more than what the Cubs gave up. And honestly looking at it today the pieces are trending better.

Regardless as it stands today I concider Q not a part of a play off rotation. He has a month to figure it out. But that is even before adding Darvish into the mix.

I would put it as he would be the default if Jon just fell off the table and even then Montgomery has been better.



End of the day as I’ve seen it for every Arrieta/Strop/Edwards/Hendricks/Hamels. There is a Q/Chatwood/Jackson/Heyward (til now)

It just feels like that they are far better at targeting smaller deals that prove to be far better vs going mega and it ends up backwards.

Now I didn’t add Darvish or Lester to this. I believe in both myself. Both have been staff leaders coming in and are worth their pay days. Q would not get that deal today and has a whole shit ton of fixing his issues to get that pay day.

You do know Q has outperformed Yu right?
 

beckdawg

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Chapman trade got the Cubs over the top to win its first WS in 108 years. Chapman clearly performed, too.

I mean we have argued it before. I just don't agree that he was the straw that broke the camel's back so to say. I'm just not a big believer in the "shut down" arm in the bullpen because outside of mariano rivera I don't think they exist. They all fail to an extent.
 

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I mean we have argued it before. I just don't agree that he was the straw that broke the camel's back so to say. I'm just not a big believer in the "shut down" arm in the bullpen because outside of mariano rivera I don't think they exist. They all fail to an extent.
There was no closer available that Maddon could have abused for 2 innings at a time for his security blanket. You may not believe in the shutdown arm, but that doesn't mean Chapman wasn't one.
 

beckdawg

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There was no closer available that Maddon could have abused for 2 innings at a time for his security blanket. You may not believe in the shutdown arm, but that doesn't mean Chapman wasn't one.

My point of contention was always that while chapman and miller were clearly the best on the block, who's to say 2 good arms wouldn't have both been cheaper and just as effective? If you go back and look at that playoff series the issue was Maddon didn't trust anyone bu Chapman and monty which is why Chapman got so overworked. In other words, if it were me I would have went for depth rather than pure talent.

To illustrate this point, imagine if rather than Chapman they dealt for 2 bullpen arms similar in cost to Monty. Monty was arguably just as effective in the playoffs that year at a far lower cost. Obviously neither of those guys likely goes out and get the 7 outs Chapman did in I believe game 5 of the world series but it's entirely plausible you'd still be able to get through that game with them and the added depth may have served them better overall.
 

CSF77

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I mean we have argued it before. I just don't agree that he was the straw that broke the camel's back so to say. I'm just not a big believer in the "shut down" arm in the bullpen because outside of mariano rivera I don't think they exist. They all fail to an extent.

The Cubs don’t win the series with out him. You can’t cherry pick game 7 when over use of Chapman put Montgomery in that position.
 

CSF77

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He was top 12 material even with the slump in the first half. His peripherals were still there. I think it's fair to question Q. I think it's fair to question the Cubs staff too.
But let's look at Q. He's much better even this year than credit is being given him.

His first 4 starts he's got a 7.78 era with walking over 5 per 9 and whiffing less than 7.5 a game.
His next 15 starts he's got an era of 2.96 walking 4 per 9 and whiffing 8.1 a game.
His last 4 starts he's back to the beginning of the season though his walks improve to 2.7, his era is back to 7.52 and a dip back to 7.5 Ks per game.

Slow start for 2018 Q Part 1 , Adjusted 2018 Q Part II, What's happened with his last four? Hurt? Bad Coaching? Bad Q? Hard to say.

But the Cubs aren't in first without his 15 start stretch.

I’m on the fence with Jim Hickey myself. I just don’t see this amazing coach.
 

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