IST: Brewers vs Cubs

[brett05]

Yu is injured not a good gauge

I'm not talking this year.

 

[beckdawg]

The Cubs don’t win the series with out him. You can’t cherry pick game 7 when over use of Chapman put Montgomery in that position.

I'm not cherry picking game 7. He also blew a game vs the giants that no one remembers. Was he good in the playoffs? Sure but my point here is that it's not as though he did what Andrew Miller did for cleveland before falling to fatigue in the WS. People have selective memory because the cubs won. He was far from perfect in the playoffs. He had a 3.86 ERA in the NLCS and a 3.52 ERA in the WS. Those are good numbers again so that I'm clear here but he wasn't running some crazy 1-2 ERA. Even in the NLDS before he was fatigued he was only a very good 2.70 ERA.

Regardless i never intended to have this debate for the 100th time. My point was here if people are looking back in hindsight that was more of an over pay than what they gave up to get Quintana

 

[anotheridiot]

I'm not cherry picking game 7. He also blew a game vs the giants that no one remembers. Was he good in the playoffs? Sure but my point here is that it's not as though he did what Andrew Miller did for cleveland before falling to fatigue in the WS. People have selective memory because the cubs won. He was far from perfect in the playoffs. He had a 3.86 ERA in the NLCS and a 3.52 ERA in the WS. Those are good numbers again so that I'm clear here but he wasn't running some crazy 1-2 ERA. Even in the NLDS before he was fatigued he was only a very good 2.70 ERA.

Regardless i never intended to have this debate for the 100th time. My point was here if people are looking back in hindsight that was more of an over pay than what they gave up to get Quintana

I go back to 2016 and Rondons first half numbers were comparable to Chapman, but then again, I dont know how many saves Rondon got while Chapman was here and shut down for the day.

either way, I do believe that the way Chapman was handled was very wrong and hind sight says **** him, he was going back to new york anyway, you gotta wonder if he would have stayed here if he was not abused like he was.

Its all Hindsight, Gleybor, Jiminez and Cease should have gotten more than Q long term. I know we had to pay a premium for the sox to trade cross town, but nothing we can do now but complain.

Makes you wonder who the Dominican 17 year old the Rangers took as the PTBNL for Hamels, but we should have him for a year and a half at least.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not cherry picking game 7. He also blew a game vs the giants that no one remembers. Was he good in the playoffs? Sure but my point here is that it's not as though he did what Andrew Miller did for cleveland before falling to fatigue in the WS. People have selective memory because the cubs won. He was far from perfect in the playoffs. He had a 3.86 ERA in the NLCS and a 3.52 ERA in the WS. Those are good numbers again so that I'm clear here but he wasn't running some crazy 1-2 ERA. Even in the NLDS before he was fatigued he was only a very good 2.70 ERA.

Regardless i never intended to have this debate for the 100th time. My point was here if people are looking back in hindsight that was more of an over pay than what they gave up to get Quintana

Fair enough

 

[CSF77]

I'm not talking this year.

Yu also had T.J. Recovery.

If you are talking value in health you are right. Q is durable. But that doesn’t justify giving up the 10 and 85 prospect for. Not when the Sox got a simmiler return for a top 5 ace vs a top 20 ish starter.

Look arguing is pointless on this. When you see your big trade pitching in the back of the rotation with a bunch of 2 types it puts the deal in question from a trade value perspective.

I just don’t see this huge talent gap in what the Red Sox gave up to what the Cubs gave up. The talent gap between Sale and Q is vast

 

[brett05]

Yu also had T.J. Recovery.

If you are talking value in health you are right. Q is durable. But that doesn’t justify giving up the 10 and 85 prospect for. Not when the Sox got a simmiler return for a top 5 ace vs a top 20 ish starter.

Look arguing is pointless on this. When you see your big trade pitching in the back of the rotation with a bunch of 2 types it puts the deal in question from a trade value perspective.

I just don’t see this huge talent gap in what the Red Sox gave up to what the Cubs gave up. The talent gap between Sale and Q is vast

The gap is very big. Cease was ceiling out as a reliever until he came to our organization. Jimenez was a step behind Moncada and Kopech a future Sale ace.
You haven't shown anything to rate Q as poorly as you have.
That said, we can agree to disagree. No problems there. :hi5:

 

[CSF77]

The gap is very big. Cease was ceiling out as a reliever until he came to our organization. Jimenez was a step behind Moncada and Kopech a future Sale ace.
You haven't shown anything to rate Q as poorly as you have.
That said, we can agree to disagree. No problems there. :hi5:

You have to go with projections also and if he is sustainable or not.

Eloy was trending the right way and what is he now. #1....

Cease was a injury risk for sure. Talent wise his stuff was top 100.

All I can say is you sit on that deal vs trigger it and you have what it took to get Sale.

I look at it as they had a top 10 farm going into 2016 and in 2 years it fell to what now 28? And they haven’t added a impact prospect sense then.

I guess I see it as 2016 the team justified getting over the hump. The trade paid off.

2017 it didn’t get them over the hump. The team had too many flaws.

Even looking at it long term: they added a #4 pitcher behind Arretta, Lester and Hendricks. Then they decided to replace Jake in F/A vs making Q front of the rotation.

They never viewed him as a TOR type. This year he has been scuffling and they went out and traded for a proven TOR for a hell of a lot cheaper cost.

And looking at it realistically paying Cole 20 mil and trading Q to buy back some farm is not a bad idea. Any improvement on Q’s part just makes the reward better. I just see it as a mistake and a net loss in return talent. But I don’t see Q as a long term piece.

 

[brett05]

You have to go with projections also and if he is sustainable or not.

Eloy was trending the right way and what is he now. #1....

Cease was a injury risk for sure. Talent wise his stuff was top 100.

All I can say is you sit on that deal vs trigger it and you have what it took to get Sale.

I look at it as they had a top 10 farm going into 2016 and in 2 years it fell to what now 28? And they haven’t added a impact prospect sense then.

I guess I see it as 2016 the team justified getting over the hump. The trade paid off.

2017 it didn’t get them over the hump. The team had too many flaws.

Even looking at it long term: they added a #4 pitcher behind Arretta, Lester and Hendricks. Then they decided to replace Jake in F/A vs making Q front of the rotation.

They never viewed him as a TOR type. This year he has been scuffling and they went out and traded for a proven TOR for a hell of a lot cheaper cost.

And looking at it realistically paying Cole 20 mil and trading Q to buy back some farm is not a bad idea. Any improvement on Q’s part just makes the reward better. I just see it as a mistake and a net loss in return talent. But I don’t see Q as a long term piece.

Hindsight isn't the same as when the trade was made.

And Yu has never been better than Q sans perhaps a single season.

 

[CSF77]

Hindsight isn't the same as when the trade was made.

And Yu has never been better than Q sans perhaps a single season.

No and not true.

12-13 Yu was the better pitcher. 14 he only made 22 starts due to TJ. 15 he missed. 16 made 17 starts post recovery and the next year they were together for a full 3.5 to 3.7 WAR.

So arguing that they are near equal sure. But saying 1 superior to the other... come on now. Very skewed data

 

[CSF77]

Anyways i’d Bet that you would never make a reverse trade on that one.

The Sale trade both teams won. Q trade there was a winner and is was south of Cubville

 

[chibears55]

Anyways i’d Bet that you would never make a reverse trade on that one.

The Sale trade both teams won. Q trade there was a winner and is was south of Cubville

Not saying i liked the trade, i didn't because i really wanted to see Eloy hitting on the Northside..
But
Even though Quintana a struggle this year, not sure how you can declare a winner yet when Jiminez and Cease have yet to even put on a major league uniform yet

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[brett05]

No and not true.

12-13 Yu was the better pitcher. 14 he only made 22 starts due to TJ. 15 he missed. 16 made 17 starts post recovery and the next year they were together for a full 3.5 to 3.7 WAR.

So arguing that they are near equal sure. But saying 1 superior to the other... come on now. Very skewed data

Not superior, just better and the stats prove it out. that's all I am saying. from 2012 to 2017

 

[brett05]

Anyways i’d Bet that you would never make a reverse trade on that one.

The Sale trade both teams won. Q trade there was a winner and is was south of Cubville

Of course the White Sox would need a lot more, none of the players involved are the same. One has continued on his track and gotten better with age, anothe improved dramatically. The other has regressed some. Again, trades don't work in hindsight.

 

[CSF77]

Not saying i liked the trade, i didn't because i really wanted to see Eloy hitting on the Northside..
But
Even though Quintana a struggle this year, not sure how you can declare a winner yet when Jiminez and Cease have yet to even put on a major league uniform yet

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

It is more so inevitable than not. Theo’s track record speaks for itself on targeting hitters. Pitchers is another story. That bit was the risk.

 

[CSF77]

Of course the White Sox would need a lot more, none of the players involved are the same. One has continued on his track and gotten better with age, anothe improved dramatically. The other has regressed some. Again, trades don't work in hindsight.

If Q is a fix like Lester was yesterday then the deal is fine.

If Q is on a regression and the Sox suspected and sold fast. Well screwed deal but moves like that affect future deals so a won trade is the small pitcher. Bigger one comes up when they go into a winning window.

Nothing wrong with targeting guys at depressed value knowing a quick fix gets him running again.

But here is the thing: he was in a regression with the Sox then it continues with the Cubs. And for the most part his fastball command is the issue.

Now we have Jim Hickey who just fixedLester with a adjustment. But Q seems more related to Chatwood where there is a bigger issue going vs a quick fix.

Just seems bad scouting/panic over pay and the Sox taking advantage.

 

[brett05]

But here is the thing: he was in a regression with the Sox then it continues with the Cubs. And for the most part his fastball command is the issue.

A slumping first half is not regression given his track record.

Now we have Jim Hickey who just fixedLester with a adjustment.

One start is not a fix.

But Q seems more related to Chatwood where there is a bigger issue going vs a quick fix.

You clearly ignored the breakdown of the mid 15 starts of Q for this season.

Just seems bad scouting/panic over pay and the Sox taking advantage.

Many felt for a top 10-15 pitcher it wasn't enough given the years of control and the peanuts it was going to cost.

 

[CSF77]

It is a fix when you go from ASG quality to kicked out of the game quality. Then Hickey noticed something off and he is back at ASG quality again.

 

[CSF77]

So Q is a 50% quality start? Great guess that is better than Chatwood

 

[brett05]

It is a fix when you go from ASG quality to kicked out of the game quality. Then Hickey noticed something off and he is back at ASG quality again.

Again, one start does not make a fix or a success. See Tuffy Rhodes.

 

[brett05]

So Q is a 50% quality start? Great guess that is better than Chatwood

Right in line with Hendricks and Lester