IST: Chicago Cubs (5-3) hosting San Diego Padres (6-4)

[chibears55]

I still view what Alcantara's done to start this season as progress. He has a 17.2% walk rate through 29 PAs. Last season he had a 5.7% walk rate through 300 PAs. That's a pretty significant increase. Obviously, that's going to come down some but as I've said before 10-11% isn't out of the question. His K rate is also down 2.4% vs last year. I mean look clearly Alcantara has to hit better. Even as biased as I am towards Alcantara will admit that. But I will point out he's got a .143 BABIP. Last season his BABIP was .266 and he was consistently in the .320+ range in the minors. If you increase his BABIP 100 points to .243 which would still be low he'd be hitting .187/.350 right now. If you assume his walk rate comes down to around 11% that would be something like .187/.290 right now. If you then project his .266 BABIP you're talking about .210/.313 which at 2B is pretty good in terms of OBP.

Keep in mind that's not an outrageous number to throw out. The only thing different from last season is his walk rate being improved. If he improves his hitting any his value starts to go up dramatically. Also, let's not gloss over the fact that as a defender the guy is pretty nice at 2B. I would also mention that even with his poor hitting we have seen what Alcantara's wheels can do by turning a walk into a SB and then a single to the OF scores him.

I think your over valuing his 5 walks and 1 SB a bit..

The kid has reached base once (BB) in his last 16 PA, he struggling. ..

When Herrera who only made team cause they didn't have a backup SS cause Baez struggled in ST starting over you,,,
You're playing like crap and struggling. .lol


For the team sake i hope he turns it around but him struggling only pushes Russell ETA up quicker, especially since Baez hasn't been playing and who knows how he comes back after the terrible lost of his sister..may take him awhile mentally. .

 

[beckdawg]

I think your over valuing his 5 walks and 1 SB a bit..

I mean that's how percentages work. I could just as easily say you're placing too much blame on his lack of hits. I entirely get where you're coming from but it's not as though his walk rate was low in the DWL and ST. In both cases he was in the 10-11% range. You add those into the equation and you're looking at over 100 PAs which is generally when you start to talk about having a decent sample. Now you could argue ST/DWL aren't the same level of competition but walking isn't something that really dratmtically changes from minor league competition to the majors. Also keep in mind that while you say "it's just 5 walks," the thing to remember is he only had 17 in 300 PAs last season. So 17 in 300 vs 5 in 29? I think you can see the difference. As I said, I imagine he'll come down closer to 10-11% rather than the 17.2% he's at. But a 5% increase is huge.

As for his SB, I didn't mean to imply that it won them the game or antyhing though IIRC that was one of their come from behind games. My point was just that it allows you to create runs that aren't typically easy scores.

 

[chibears55]

I mean that's how percentages work. I could just as easily say you're placing too much blame on his lack of hits. I entirely get where you're coming from but it's not as though his walk rate was low in the DWL and ST. In both cases he was in the 10-11% range. You add those into the equation and you're looking at over 100 PAs which is generally when you start to talk about having a decent sample. Now you could argue ST/DWL aren't the same level of competition but walking isn't something that really dratmtically changes from minor league competition to the majors.

As for his SB, I didn't mean to imply that it won them the game or antyhing though IIRC that was one of their come from behind games. My point was just that it allows you to create runs that aren't typically easy scores.

Im far from undermining the importance of walks and getting on base, especially for a MI ...

Im just saying the kid is struggling and has been struggling at the major league level since after his first month, despite being able to take some walks..

He needs to do alot more at the plate then walk 10-12 times every 100 PA, he needs to add about 20+ hits too...
Otherwise he no better then having travis wood at the plate lol.

If he hitting around .180 or so in a couple weeks, they need to consider sending him down, even if he walking at that 10% range.

 

[TL1961]

Today's game was one they should have won. Left guys on after 2nd & 3rd w one out. Too many K's. They need to understand it is CRITICAL to stop striking out in those situations. Too many ABs wasted.
They're young. They'll learn. Maddon needs to reinforce this. It will be better as sesson goes along.

 

[beckdawg]

He needs to do alot more at the plate then walk 10-12 times every 100 PA, he needs to add about 20+ hits too...
Otherwise he no better then having travis wood at the plate lol.

If he hitting around .180 or so in a couple weeks, they need to consider sending him down, even if he walking at that 10% range.

I honestly disagree. Well let's say .200 just for the sake of argument. If he's hitting .180 that's a tad low as 10% walk rate should put him at around a .280 OBP. But for the sake of argument let's say he's .200/.310. If he's that giving you the other aspects I mentioned I think it's perfectly fine. It's not ideal obviously but league average for 2B last season was .250/.307/.364. So what if his BA is 50 points lower? Where are they hitting Alcantara? It's generally been 7th in front of the pitcher or 9th. In other words, hits generally don't mean that much to him. You want those players on base more than anything to set up Fowler and the top of the line up.

And keep in mind that the obvious hope is that he works his way through the hitting struggles. That's why I view what he's done thus far as progress. Not to mention last time I checked he was seeing over 4 pitches an at bat which does help to knock starters out earlier.

As I said before, at some point he needs to start hitting better to be what I envision him becoming. As long as he's getting on base around a .310 clip he's worth keeping in the majors.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Today's game was one they should have won. Left guys on after 2nd & 3rd w one out. Too many K's. They need to understand it is CRITICAL to stop striking out in those situations. Too many ABs wasted.
They're young. They'll learn. Maddon needs to reinforce this. It will be better as sesson goes along.

Did you watch the game? Shields was dealing.

 

[SilenceS]

I honestly disagree. Well let's say .200 just for the sake of argument. If he's hitting .180 that's a tad low as 10% walk rate should put him at around a .280 OBP. But for the sake of argument let's say he's .200/.310. If he's that giving you the other aspects I mentioned I think it's perfectly fine. It's not ideal obviously but league average for 2B last season was .250/.307/.364. So what if his BA is 50 points lower? Where are they hitting Alcantara? It's generally been 7th in front of the pitcher or 9th. In other words, hits generally don't mean that much to him. You want those players on base more than anything to set up Fowler and the top of the line up.

And keep in mind that the obvious hope is that he works his way through the hitting struggles. That's why I view what he's done thus far as progress. Not to mention last time I checked he was seeing over 4 pitches an at bat which does help to knock starters out earlier.

As I said before, at some point he needs to start hitting better to be what I envision him becoming. As long as he's getting on base around a .310 clip he's worth keeping in the majors.

His BABIP isnt coming up because he is completely lost at the plate. He can not recognize an off speed pitch. He has looked foolish in many of his AB's. Even the game winning hit, he looked foolish the first two swing. Put wood on it and a drawn infield allowed the hit or thats another out. I dont give a shit if he can walk at a 20% clip. He can not decipher between pitches which is the exact reason Baez was sent down.

 

[beckdawg]

His BABIP isnt coming up because he is completely lost at the plate. He can not recognize an off speed pitch. He has looked foolish in many of his AB's. Even the game winning hit, he looked foolish the first two swing. Put wood on it and a drawn infield allowed the hit or thats another out. I dont give a shit if he can walk at a 20% clip. He can not decipher between pitches which is the exact reason Baez was sent down.

Weren't you one for arguing that Baez shouldn't be sent down to start the season?

 

[Diehardfan]

Tough way to lose one. This clown let Shields live on foot high strike calls all game then blows one that at least was close to knee high and right down the middle. I agree, he's gotta compose himself and not groove the next one but damn.....that was fucking strike three, he should not have even had to throw a next pitch.

Good officiating usually flys under the radar in all sports but when they are bad, it really stands out.

 

[SilenceS]

Weren't you one for arguing that Baez shouldn't be sent down to start the season?

Werent you the one arguing that he didnt earn it and should be sent down?

 

[chibears55]

I honestly disagree. Well let's say .200 just for the sake of argument. If he's hitting .180 that's a tad low as 10% walk rate should put him at around a .280 OBP. But for the sake of argument let's say he's .200/.310. If he's that giving you the other aspects I mentioned I think it's perfectly fine. It's not ideal obviously but league average for 2B last season was .250/.307/.364. So what if his BA is 50 points lower? Where are they hitting Alcantara? It's generally been 7th in front of the pitcher or 9th. In other words, hits generally don't mean that much to him. You want those players on base more than anything to set up Fowler and the top of the line up.

And keep in mind that the obvious hope is that he works his way through the hitting struggles. That's why I view what he's done thus far as progress. Not to mention last time I checked he was seeing over 4 pitches an at bat which does help to knock starters out earlier.

As I said before, at some point he needs to start hitting better to be what I envision him becoming. As long as he's getting on base around a .310 clip he's worth keeping in the majors.

We'll see what happens with him...

You're counting on him walking to offset the lack of hitting..
His last 17 PA now he has 2 hits and 1 Walk.
he gonna needs to start picking it up a bit if he gonna get to a .300 OBP where you feel he should be ok at...

I really hope he gets hot and stays at over .300 OBP cause they need someone to get on base at a good rate at bottom of order..

 

[justaChifan]

This loss hurts big time

That's as big of an overstatement as I've ever seen.
Troll much?

 

[beckdawg]

Werent you the one arguing that he didnt earn it and should be sent down?

The difference is as I've said, I think Alcantara has and will get on base enough to offset his other struggles where as I didn't think Baez would. If you disagree that's fine but even you have to admit that Alcantara isn't going to continue to hit .050. Last season over a 300 PA stretch he hit .205. He's presently got a .250 OBP despite hitting .050. Baez hit .169/.227/.324 last season. If we assume that Alcantara's walk rate comes down to the 10-11% range and we assume he hits .205 like last year you're talking about him being in the .205/.305-.315 range which in terms of OBP is league average. This isn't me making some absurd claim that Alcantara is going to BABIP .350 the rest of the year. It's taking an arguably poor initial season last season and adjust his walk rate to where it appears to be. Also, if you send Alcantara down who are you calling up? Baez? He didn't do anything in ST to make the team and hasn't played yet due to his sister's death. Russell a 21 year old who has roughly 300 PAs between AA and AAA combined? La Stella is hurt and hasn't played well either(.167/.167/.167). Herrera is hitting .167/.231/.167. So yeah excuse me for taking the player at 2B with the highest present OBP and wanting him to play.

Can we also bring up the fact we're talking about 2 weeks of games? I mean look I am the first to look at small sample sizes and try to make something out of them but I've never said I'd send a player down after 29 PAs(even Baez). In his first 31 PAs last season in AAA Alcantara hit .276/.290/.414. The rest of his AAA season he hit .310/.358/.549. The year prior in AA he hit .267/.313/.400 over his first 32 PAs. He hit .272/.355/.455 the rest of the season. Maybe he's just a slow starter.

 

[SilenceS]

The difference is as I've said, I think Alcantara has and will get on base enough to offset his other struggles where as I didn't think Baez would. If you disagree that's fine but even you have to admit that Alcantara isn't going to continue to hit .050. Last season over a 300 PA stretch he hit .205. He's presently got a .250 OBP despite hitting .050. Baez hit .169/.227/.324 last season. If we assume that Alcantara's walk rate comes down to the 10-11% range and we assume he hits .205 like last year you're talking about him being in the .205/.305-.315 range which in terms of OBP is league average. This isn't me making some absurd claim that Alcantara is going to BABIP .350 the rest of the year. It's taking an arguably poor initial season last season and adjust his walk rate to where it appears to be. Also, if you send Alcantara down who are you calling up? Baez? He didn't do anything in ST to make the team and hasn't played yet due to his sister's death. Russell a 21 year old who has roughly 300 PAs between AA and AAA combined? La Stella is hurt and hasn't played well either(.167/.167/.167). Herrera is hitting .167/.231/.167. So yeah excuse me for taking the player at 2B with the highest present OBP and wanting him to play.

Can we also bring up the fact we're talking about 2 weeks of games? I mean look I am the first to look at small sample sizes and try to make something out of them but I've never said I'd send a player down after 29 PAs(even Baez). In his first 31 PAs last season in AAA Alcantara hit .276/.290/.414. The rest of his AAA season he hit .310/.358/.549. The year prior in AA he hit .267/.313/.400 over his first 32 PAs. He hit .272/.355/.455 the rest of the season. Maybe he's just a slow starter.

 

[beckdawg]

We'll see what happens with him...

You're counting on him walking to offset the lack of hitting..
His last 17 PA now he has 2 hits and 1 Walk.
he gonna needs to start picking it up a bit if he gonna get to a .300 OBP where you feel he should be ok at...

I really hope he gets hot and stays at over .300 OBP cause they need someone to get on base at a good rate at bottom of order..

It's not entirely the walks that I'm looking at though. It's honestly the number of pitches he's seeing.

2015-04-17 - 1 PA 3 pitches
2015-04-15 - 4 PAs 11 pitches
2015-04-14 - 2 PAs 6 pitches
2015-04-13 - 5 PAs 21 pitches
2015-04-12 - 4 PAs 18 pitches
2015-04-11 - 4 PAs 23 pitches
2015-04-10 - 4 PAs 12 pitches
2015-04-08 - 3 PAs 11 pitches
2015-04-05 - 2 PAs 13 pitches

That gives you 29 PAs and 118 pitches or 4.06 per PA. Rizzo was at 4.02 per PA in 2014. If you look at this list of players at around that mark most have a quality walk rate. Also, as I mentioned his walk rate in the DWL and ST was around 10-11% and he had a 10.9% over 571 PAs in AA in 2013. So clearly he's capable of reaching that level.

Based off what I've seen so far, I'm honestly not really worried at all about his walk rate. What I'm more curious about is what happens with regard to his hitting because for him to be the player I think he can be hitting .205 like last year isn't going to cut it. But looking at the data, thus far this season he's only seeing 38.6% of pitches inside the zone. Last season the MLB average was 44.9%. For reference, his 300 PA 2014 was 41.9% so pitchers are obviously trying to get him to chase outside the zone. I'm not suggesting this is the same as say Baez where they clearly were scared of his power. At the same time, it's nice to see that he's taking the walks they give him at a good rate.

Ultimately, he's going to need to get better hitting in the zone. His z-contact is at 81.8% for his career(77.8% this season) and the MLB average is 87.3%. But I think the narrative that a young hitter would get frustrated by not seeing much to hit is an easy one to believe. I just don't think based on the numbers that he's been as disastrous as some would have you believe. And I think the fact that he's obviously willing to take a walk is a positive sign going forward. No one knows whether or not he'll hit in the long term but I do know that if he hits and will take a walk he'll be a better player than if he doesn't.

 

[CSF77]

Comes down to OBA. he needs to be at .330 or higher. I means little what his BB% is if he can't hit .200

I'm still under the opinion that Hendry couldnt run a draft for shit and was a tools guy vs an approach at the plate scout.

I like Vogelbach the best of his picks. Even Castro lacks OBA skills but makes up for it with his hit tool.

 

[CSF77]

Not saying he can't but it will be more over a work in progress. Like a few years. IMO he needs to be a role guy.

 

[beckdawg]

Comes down to OBA. he needs to be at .330 or higher. I means little what his BB% is if he can't hit .200

I'm still under the opinion that Hendry couldnt run a draft for shit and was a tools guy vs an approach at the plate scout.

I like Vogelbach the best of his picks. Even Castro lacks OBA skills but makes up for it with his hit tool.

You realize .330 OBP is pretty freaking high right? This is especially true at 2B which has worse hitters than average. Last season 71 of the 146 qualified players in the majors had a .330+ OBP. That's just the people with over 500 PAs. Basically that means you're in the top half of hitters in the league. Only 9 2B had that last season.

If we're talking realistic aspirations for Alcantara, if he's over .310 OBP it should be considered a solid year. If he has over .330 OBP you're probably talking about him being something close to an all-star because that means you're probably talking about 15-20 HRs and 30+ steals. I say .310 is solid because he's 23. If you look at a typical player's power curve you peak around 28-30. You look at a guy like say Ray Durham who's sort of a similar player to what you hope Alcantara might be you see that he debuted at 23 and hit .257/.309/.384 with 7 HRs and 18 SBs in 517 PAs. For his career he ended up being a .277/.352/.436 hitter and was routinely in the 15-20 HR 25-35 SB range. In other words, if Alcantara hits .330 as a 23 year old he's probably going to be a superstar. If he's at .310 or above he has a good shot at being a decent player.

 

[beckdawg]

Not saying he can't but it will be more over a work in progress. Like a few years. IMO he needs to be a role guy.

This was after my post. Didn't realize you were talking about career marks rather than this year marks.

 

[CSF77]

You realize .330 OBP is pretty freaking high right? This is especially true at 2B which has worse hitters than average. Last season 71 of the 146 qualified players in the majors had a .330+ OBP. That's just the people with over 500 PAs. Basically that means you're in the top half of hitters in the league. Only 9 2B had that last season.

If we're talking realistic aspirations for Alcantara, if he's over .310 OBP it should be considered a solid year. If he has over .330 OBP you're probably talking about him being something close to an all-star because that means you're probably talking about 15-20 HRs and 30+ steals. I say .310 is solid because he's 23. If you look at a typical player's power curve you peak around 28-30. You look at a guy like say Ray Durham who's sort of a similar player to what you hope Alcantara might be you see that he debuted at 23 and hit .257/.309/.384 with 7 HRs and 18 SBs in 517 PAs. For his career he ended up being a .277/.352/.436 hitter and was routinely in the 15-20 HR 25-35 SB range. In other words, if Alcantara hits .330 as a 23 year old he's probably going to be a superstar. If he's at .310 or above he has a good shot at being a decent player.

I don't see the Leon thing to be honest here. What I see is super sub that can give some power on occasion but a lesser player than Russell.