IST: Cubs @ A's

[SilenceS]

 

[Omeletpants]

Win WS... Low probability of opting out, seriously he and this team will literally be on top of the world.. How can you not want to be a part of that for another year and try and repeat.

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Maybe you missed all the Denver Broncos finding new teams right after their SB win. Kinda blows up your theory

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs have slowed down run diff wise but at 1.63 this year they are on pace to be better than the Jays last year(1.4) and would be the best since the 2001 M's(1.9). Since 1950 the only teams that are better than pace are the aforementioned M's, the 98 Yankees(1.9), 98 Houston(tied at 1.6), 95 Cleveland(1.6), 75 Cincy(1.6), 69 Baltimore(1.6), 54 Cleveland(1.6), 53 Dodgers and Yanks(both 1.7). So, only 4 teams have been better than run diff wise since the 50's.

 

[chibears55]

Maybe you missed all the Denver Broncos finding new teams right after their SB win. Kinda blows up your theory

Broncos didn't have 100 plus yrs of waiting and all the other intangibles the Cubs have going...
Plus football has a cap

Kinda blows up your come back.. ?



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[chibears55]

Chibears, what makes you think Jay Hey is an average CF? I don't get into the metrics stuff, so I don't have stats to back me here, but I remember all playoffs last year him being a boss in CF and when he's played this year he looks just as fluid in CF as he does in RF

I'm not saying AVG. as a bad way..
And I'm not into the metrics either

I just think he excells more in RF defensively and looks more comfortable there..

In CF he just looks a bit off and outside WF with Schwarber and Bryant, I just think it could bite them in ass for most part.

If they plan on doing more of a platoon with Almira or someone, then OK..
But if he going to be there regularly, I don't know





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[chibears55]

Past 3 years Fowler has hit .268/.367/.423 in CF and averaged roughly 14 HRs a year and a roughly similar SB total. Adam Jones didn't hit FA but he's making $16-17 mil over the next 3 years and over that same period he's hit .274/.311/.467 albeit with more power. Jacob Ellsbury has hit .268/.327/.384 and the yankees are paying him $21 mil over the next 5 years. To be fair, I thought Fowler would find near $20 mil last offseason so maybe the MLB teams just don't view him as favorable for whatever reason but from a production stand point he's clearly worth that much.

On the other hand, the possible FA looks pretty terrible. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-august.html

Like I said I'd be surprised..

But as you pointed out, a bad FA class
So, maybe there will be teams making crazy offers for him

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[czman]

Past 3 years Fowler has hit .268/.367/.423 in CF and averaged roughly 14 HRs a year and a roughly similar SB total. Adam Jones didn't hit FA but he's making $16-17 mil over the next 3 years and over that same period he's hit .274/.311/.467 albeit with more power. Jacob Ellsbury has hit .268/.327/.384 and the yankees are paying him $21 mil over the next 5 years. To be fair, I thought Fowler would find near $20 mil last offseason so maybe the MLB teams just don't view him as favorable for whatever reason but from a production stand point he's clearly worth that much.

On the other hand, the possible FA looks pretty terrible. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-august.html

I explained this to you last season, why he would get 12-16 million per. He is a ~250 hitter for his career outside of Coors field and he was the 2nd worst defensive CF until he got to Wrigley. He started off hot as shit this season hitting ~350 for the first month. That injury probably saved him from regressing to a ~250 hitter this season, just like he ended up last season.

He also can't stay healthy. He has played more than 135 games twice in 9 years.

CFs who are on the wrong side of 30, are not particularly good defensively, ~250 hitters outside of Coors, and only play ~130 games a season don't usually get 20 mil per season. His value will probably pretty close to where it was last season. The only way I see his value going up is if there is no compensatory pick assigned to him. I don't know the rules well enough to know if the cubs can put a qualifying offer on him again if he opts out.

 

[beckdawg]

I explained this to you last season, why he would get 12-16 million per. He is a ~250 hitter for his career outside of Coors field and he was the 2nd worst defensive CF until he got to Wrigley. He started off hot as shit this season hitting ~350 for the first month. That injury probably saved him from regressing to a ~250 hitter this season, just like he ended up last season.

He also can't stay healthy. He has played more than 135 games twice in 9 years.

CFs who are on the wrong side of 30, are not particularly good defensively, ~250 hitters outside of Coors, and only play ~130 games a season don't usually get 20 mil per season. His value will probably pretty close to where it was last season. The only way I see his value going up is if there is no compensatory pick assigned to him. I don't know the rules well enough to know if the cubs can put a qualifying offer on him again if he opts out.

Fowler is an above average defender this season according to both DRS and UZR/150. As for his average, does that even matter? He's a .366 career OBP. Last year there were only 23 players in the league who had better than his "average" .366. Even if you want to suggest he's a product of Coors, the past 2 years he's hit .263/.364/.435 in chicago and that includes a horrid first half in 2015. He's been the 8th most valuable CF in terms of fWAR the past 2 years at 6.5. It's easy to sit here and say well he's 30 and you don't pay players over 30 but do you see how shit MLB CF's are? All those things you throw at Fowler also apply to Denard Span who got a 3 year $31 mil deal. Span's hitting .265/.336/.362.

As of right now, there's 17 CF with more than 200 PAs and a wRC+ over 100. Those include
1 Tyler Naquin .324/.391/.614 2.7 fWAR
2 Mike Trout .316/.428/.547 6.5 fWAR
3 Yoenis Cespedes .292/.364/.551 2.4 fWAR
4 Dexter Fowler .291/.400/.486 3.3 fWAR
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. .292/.371/.528 3.9 fWAR
6 Marcell Ozuna .295/.349/.509 3.3 fWAR
7 Ian Desmond .294/.346/.502 4.2 fWAR
8 Joc Pederson .239/.332/.478 1.8 fWAR
9 Cameron Maybin .325/.394/.398 1.1 fWAR
10 Brandon Guyer .248/.353/.413 0.6 fWAR
11 Odubel Herrera .284/.365/.417 2.4 fWAR
12 Ichiro Suzuki .317/.388/.372 1.2 fWAR
13 Jon Jay .296/.345/.407 1.2 fWAR
14 Charlie Blackmon .299/.363/.461 1.5 fWAR
15 Adam Jones .269/.314/.456 1.3 fWAR
16 Trayce Thompson .225/.302/.436 0.5 fWAR
17 Travis Jankowski .249/.365/.325 1.9 fWAR

If you're a team who's looking to compete for the playoffs, how many of those guys would you rather have than Fowler? Only Ichiro, Herrera, Maybin, Bradley Jr., Cepedes, Trout and Naquin have better OBP. Clearly Ichiro isn't a long term solution. Herrera is basically a younger version of Fowler but then again the Phillies likely aren't getting rid of him. Maybin has a good triple slash but he has no power. His .074 ISO is Juan Pierre levels. Cespedes isn't really a traditional CF. He's more a corner guy. Trout is obviously Trout but going no where. Naquin and Bradley are good young players neither Cleveland nor Boston would give up.

I get the argument Fowler doesn't have the best track record with health. And surely that's why no team is giving him a 7 year deal. But even missing a full month this season he's been worth 3.3 fWAR which if you use the $7-8 mil per fWAR figure that typically is associated with FA prices, that's worth some where between $23.1 and $26.4 mil in value. Alex Gordon got 4 years $72 mil last year($18 mil per) and he's a career .265/.346/.429 hitter in a corner OF slot albeit a very good defender there. Fowler is a career .269/.366/.423 hitter in CF albeit probably slightly average to below average depending on who you ask/what you look at.

Whether or not Fowler gets $20 mil/season isn't really my point. Teams make great bargain contracts all the time. They also go and pay $70 mil over 5 years for a 4.03 ERA Ian Kennedy. The point is that's what Fowler is actually worth. Think you can easily claim there's only 10 CF in the league who are at equal or better value to what he provides.

 

[Omeletpants]

Broncos didn't have 100 plus yrs of waiting and all the other intangibles the Cubs have going...
Plus football has a cap

Kinda blows up your come back.. ��



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Nonsense. 26 year old players have no memory of 108 years ago and their tie to that number is meaningless

 

[Omeletpants]

Cubs unis suck. Look like pajamas

 

[chibears55]

Nonsense. 26 year old players have no memory of 108 years ago and their tie to that number is meaningless

That not what I was saying in original post...
The 1oo yrs and intangibles it brings was response to your comparison to Broncos players leaving

Cubs win the WS...
this city, fans, media, everybody will be piling on to celebrate and everything with this team all off season into next season..
It's probably will be bigger then the Bulls Bears n Hawks combined because of the 108 yrs the curses and the intangibles the team has associated with it..

Fowler being a big part of it and being close to his teammates etc., would probably consider staying to be a part of that..



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[chibears55]

Wish Maddon had Contreras 7 or 8
They get anything going with 3 4 5 hitters, odds against them keeping it going with Heyward Soler and Montero following them up.
At least having Contreras in there gives them a chance


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[Ari Bear]

I guess the Cubs decided to wear their pj's today for the game

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[PickSix]

Glad someone didn't go goofy and start cutting up these uni's, but these suck.

 

[A.C. Milan]

Big Ben!!!

 

[Omeletpants]

Wish Maddon had Contreras 7 or 8
They get anything going with 3 4 5 hitters, odds against them keeping it going with Heyward Soler and Montero following them up.
At least having Contreras in there gives them a chance


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Contreras may have a few hits recently but they have all been of the bloop or infielder dribbler. If he wants to move up the line up he needs to start hitting the ball solidly

 

[TL1961]

Broncos didn't have 100 plus yrs of waiting and all the other intangibles the Cubs have going...
Plus football has a cap

Kinda blows up your come back.. ?



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So......Fowler would be more likely to stay with Cubs after a WS win because they went 100+ years between WS wins?

I fail to see whatever it is that passes for logic in that.

 

[Ari Bear]

Arrieta's velocity is down a bit, many 92mph fastballs. When usually he's around 95 or 96.

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[Omeletpants]

To all the Zobie haters: I love me some Zobie!!!!

 

[chibears55]

So......Fowler would be more likely to stay with Cubs after a WS win because they went 100+ years between WS wins?

I fail to see whatever it is that passes for logic in that.

Lol.. Because that not what I wrote
But whatever
Let move on

LetsGoCubs

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