IST: Cubs @ Cleveland

[fatbeard]

No Bryant again.

 

[Globetrotter]

I’m liking the lineup.

 

[chibears55]

Even if he has a monster season I can't fathom why people think Heyward is going to get more money. The two years prior to coming to the cubs he had a 4.7 win season and a 5.6 win season. Those type of season's aren't "normal." As an example, if you exclude Bryce Harper's monster 2015, he has never had a season better than 4.9. So assuming Heyward even if he were to put up a good season would suddenly get more money has always been strange to me.

My thought isnt that hed look for more money per year, im thinking he might do it to get more years beyond the 4 left after next year..
His current deal ends after 2023 season age 33, maybe he hopes to get a 7 yr 140-160 deal.. same money per but get an extra 2 years through age 35 2025..

That way he guarantees himself an extra 2 years of getting paid 20+ Mil, which he may not get after 2023..

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[A.C. Milan]

My thought isnt that hed look for more money per year, im thinking he might do it to get more years beyond the 4 left after next year..
His current deal ends after 2023 season age 33, maybe he hopes to get a 7 yr 140-160 deal.. same money per but get an extra 2 years through age 35 2025..

That way he guarantees himself an extra 2 years of getting paid 20+ Mil, which he may not get after 2023..

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Who would want to pay a 35yo Heyward 20 per? I sure hope is not the Cubs. Let's reunite Harper and Kobe and let Heyward steal his money from someone else

 

[chibears55]

Who would want to pay a 35yo Heyward 20 per? I sure hope is not the Cubs. Let's reunite Harper and Kobe and let Heyward steal his money from someone else

Talking about if he decides to opt out after this year..

Im thinking he might do it to try and extend the years to an extra 2 years pass where it would end now if he decides to stay..
Hope some team will offer a 7 yr deal which would go to his age 35..

Only way the cubs can get rid of Heyward and his contract is if he opts out after this year..
They can try and trade him but I'm sure they would have to eat most of his remaining salary

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[beckdawg]

My thought isnt that hed look for more money per year, im thinking he might do it to get more years beyond the 4 left after next year..
His current deal ends after 2023 season age 33, maybe he hopes to get a 7 yr 140-160 deal.. same money per but get an extra 2 years through age 35 2025..

That way he guarantees himself an extra 2 years of getting paid 20+ Mil, which he may not get after 2023..

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The problem is you're assuming he gets more than the 5/$106 mil he has left. And the thing is he's only going to be 34 after those 5 years. He can probably still get $10-15 mil per at 34 for 2-3 years. But even in best case scenario I never saw him opting out and getting $20+mil for those years. I mean these were his prime years coming off great seasons that the cubs payed for and he only averaged $23.25 mil/season. In other words, best case all around when signing that deal he probably was only looking at maybe $15 mil more than he could other wise get by doing nothing. The only way him opting out ever made sense was if he finally tapped into the monster power people thought he had.

 

[A.C. Milan]

Talking about if he decides to opt out after this year..

Im thinking he might do it to try and extend the years to an extra 2 years pass where it would end now if he decides to stay..
Hope some team will offer a 7 yr deal which would go to his age 35..

Only way the cubs can get rid of Heyward and his contract is if he opts out after this year..
They can try and trade him but I'm sure they would have to eat most of his remaining salary

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I wish he would do but it's impossible unless he has an MVP year, nobody is gonna pay him that much right now

 

[chibears55]

The problem is you're assuming he gets more than the 5/$106 mil he has left. And the thing is he's only going to be 34 after those 5 years. He can probably still get $10-15 mil per at 34 for 2-3 years. But even in best case scenario I never saw him opting out and getting $20+mil for those years. I mean these were his prime years coming off great seasons that the cubs payed for and he only averaged $23.25 mil/season. In other words, best case all around when signing that deal he probably was only looking at maybe $15 mil more than he could other wise get by doing nothing. The only way him opting out ever made sense was if he finally tapped into the monster power people thought he had.

Im not assuming anything..

Im just saying what i think he might be considering if he decides to opt out after this year..

Instead of hoping to get a 1 or 2 yr 10-15 mil per from a team after this current deal expires after age 33, maybe he hoping that if he opts out after this year.. A team might give him a 7 yr deal through age 35 at around the same per he getting now and instead of hoping to get 10 or 15 at age 34 and maybe 35, he guarenteed to get 20+ at age 34 and 35..

That would be the only reason i think he might consider opting out after this year..

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[chibears55]

I wish he would do but it's impossible unless he has an MVP year, nobody is gonna pay him that much right now

I wouldnt say nobody..

He'll only be 29 next year..
He a gold glove RFer
He a veteran that leads

He has a good year with the bat, stays away from injuries
I can see teams considering it for 20-22 per, that would be pretty cheap

He has an MVP year, hed be looking to get 30 per

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[beckdawg]

Im not assuming anything..

Im just saying what i think he might be considering if he decides to opt out after this year..

Instead of hoping to get a 1 or 2 yr 10-15 mil per from a team after this current deal expires after age 33, maybe he hoping that if he opts out after this year.. A team might give him a 7 yr deal through age 35 at around the same per he getting now and instead of hoping to get 10 or 15 at age 34 and maybe 35, he guarenteed to get 20+ at age 34 and 35..

That would be the only reason i think he might consider opting out after this year..

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Who's going to give him 7 years though? That's my point when I say you're assuming he gets more than $106 mil left. You literally have to be the top FA in a class to even warrant 6-7 years. I don't think he could even get more than 5/$106 even if he were to have a 6 win year this year. Look at the deal Cain just got for example. So, suggesting he would get that plus additional years seems absurd to me. Teams don't just hand out 8+ year deals because a guy is young. There's lots of 28-30 year olds who only get 4-5 years tops. The only guys who get more than that are guys that are so good that you have to guarantee them more to even be in consideration.

 

[chibears55]

Who's going to give him 7 years though? That's my point when I say you're assuming he gets more than $106 mil left. You literally have to be the top FA in a class to even warrant 6-7 years. I don't think he could even get more than 5/$106 even if he were to have a 6 win year this year. Look at the deal Cain just got for example. So, suggesting he would get that plus additional years seems absurd to me. Teams don't just hand out 8+ year deals because a guy is young. There's lots of 28-30 year olds who only get 4-5 years tops. The only guys who get more than that are guys that are so good that you have to guarantee them more to even be in consideration.

Here are the FA RightFielders..
Harper no.1 in that group, have to think Heyward if he has a good year with the bat and being a GG and just 29 , would be number 2..

Right Fielders

Melky Cabrera (34)
Lonnie Chisenhall (30)
Curtis Granderson (38)
Carlos Gomez (33)
Carlos Gonzalez (33)
Brandon Guyer (33) — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
Bryce Harper (26)
Jason Heyward (29) — can opt out of remaining five years and $106MM
Matt Joyce (34)
Nick Markakis (35)
Andrew McCutchen (32)
Hunter Pence (36)
Colby Rasmus (32)
Ichiro Suzuki (45)
Yasmany Tomas (28) — can opt out of remaining two years and $32.5MM

So, yes i think there might be a couple teams that could useca RFer , would consider giving him 7 yrs ..

Again im not saying he definately going to opt out..
Im just saying that it could be his thinking in considering to do it

Edit..

Just wanted to add something else here..

IF the cubs are seriously considering Bryce Harper, then youd have to think that they would probably look to trade Heyward even if it means eating some salary..
So if youre Heyward and knowing that..
Maybe you consider opting out and signing with a team of your choice over being traded to a team you might not prefer..



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[chibears55]

Tonight going to be a good test for the cubs offense ..

Trevor Bauer

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[CubsFaninMN]

I agree with you, Beck. If he's good, be happy he plays for us. If he's not good -- the only reason not to want him to be a Cub -- then stop trying to believe that some other team will pay him more than what we're paying him, for deeper into his career.

I feel like I'm listening to one guy try to be both the team rep and the player rep at an arb hearing. "Hey, all you other teams, he's great! Y'all want to pay him more than what we're paying him!" "If he's so great, why don't you want to keep him?" "Because we think he sucks donkey dick and can't stand the thought of him on our team!" "Then why do you want us to sign him? Just to take him off of your hands?" "No! He's great! Really! So great you really want to pay for him!"

I mean, are y'all even listening to yourselves? If he's THAT good, why would you then want him to opt out? And if you don't want him, then why do you think other teams would want him?

Is this all because y'all creamed in your pants when he signed with us two years ago and then he had a couple of bad years? He could win MVP every year for the next three years, and y'all are so upset at how disappointed you were with him that you just can't stand the thought of him being a Cub, no matter how much better he gets?

Some people need to figure it out. You don't root for a member of your team to do really well just so you can get the **** rid of him, you know? That's like fucking as many butt-ugly hookers as you can find in hopes it will make your wife look better by comparison...

 

[beckdawg]

Here are the FA RightFielders..
Harper no.1 in that group, have to think Heyward if he has a good year with the bat and being a GG and just 29 , would be number 2..

Right Fielders

Melky Cabrera (34)
Lonnie Chisenhall (30)
Curtis Granderson (38)
Carlos Gomez (33)
Carlos Gonzalez (33)
Brandon Guyer (33) — $3MM club option with a $250K buyout
Bryce Harper (26)
Jason Heyward (29) — can opt out of remaining five years and $106MM
Matt Joyce (34)
Nick Markakis (35)
Andrew McCutchen (32)
Hunter Pence (36)
Colby Rasmus (32)
Ichiro Suzuki (45)
Yasmany Tomas (28) — can opt out of remaining two years and $32.5MM

So, yes i think there might be a couple teams that could useca RFer , would consider giving him 7 yrs ..

Again im not saying he definately going to opt out..
Im just saying that it could be his thinking in considering to do it

Edit..

Just wanted to add something else here..

IF the cubs are seriously considering Bryce Harper, then youd have to think that they would probably look to trade Heyward even if it means eating some salary..
So if youre Heyward and knowing that..
Maybe you consider opting out and signing with a team of your choice over being traded to a team you might not prefer..



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Harper really doesn't matter to Heyward. His decision would need to be about money. You're not going to take less money because the cubs are bringing in Harper. At the very least you would make them trade you but more likely you would just sit there with your deal.

As for him getting offered 7 years, I think that's a pipe dream honestly. How is Heyward for example any different than Justin Upton? He interestingly enough got $106 mil over 5 years. Upton was coming off of a 5.2 fWAR season. I mean ok Heyward is a year younger but Upton is a far more proven reliable bat. So, if that was the going rate for a 5 win RF this past offseason, why would Heyward suddenly get 7 years at presumably more than $106 mil?

And even if I stipulate that is the case that he could potentially get that, are you going to risk the market not being there over likely $10-15 mil? For example, There's realistically no way he's going to be $20+ mil for the 2 years you add on at the end of the deal. I think it's fairly easy for him to get a 2 year $25-30 mill deal at age 34. So would you risk losing a guaranteed $106 mil over potentially $10-15 mil difference on the high end? If you want to look at how south things can go just look at how the market bottomed on a guy like Moustakas last year who had some questions.

The only way a player opts out is if they know for sure they are getting more and as I've said I'm not even sure it's possible he gets more let alone probable. Of course all that ignores the fact he chose to come to chicago. There's a reason he wanted to play here over I believe Washington and St. Louis who were the other finalists. In other words, people need to come to terms with the fact he's here likely for the duration of the deal.

 

[A.C. Milan]

Is this all because y'all creamed in your pants when he signed with us two years ago and then he had a couple of bad years? He could win MVP every year for the next three years, and y'all are so upset at how disappointed you were with him that you just can't stand the thought of him being a Cub, no matter how much better he gets?

Reality is we are stuck with him, there is no fucking chance he opt out because like i said i don't believe there is someone out there willing to pay him that much, but i want to quote this part to say that he has been a Cub for 2 years and he had "a couple of bad years" not a couple of bad months, this means that almoust his entire time with the Cubs has been bad so it's very understandable that some pepole don't want him anymore, 277 BA with 2 HR are not going to convince me he has turned the corner, of course i will continue to root for him because he is a Cub

 

[Globetrotter]

Umps are picking up where they left off in the WS. Not really letting the actual strike zone impede on them calling strikes for Indian pitching.

 

[chibears55]

This is like a game 7 matchup

Lester and Bauer pitching tough tonight

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[beckdawg]

Reality is we are stuck with him, there is no fucking chance he opt out because like i said i don't believe there is someone out there willing to pay him that much, but i want to quote this part to say that he has been a Cub for 2 years and he had "a couple of bad years" not a couple of bad months, this means that almoust his entire time with the Cubs has been bad so it's very understandable that some pepole don't want him anymore, 277 BA with 2 HR are not going to convince me he has turned the corner, of course i will continue to root for him because he is a Cub

That's the issue with trying to improve. It's rarely a linear path. Obviously people have always wanted to squeeze more power out of Heyward and the cubs had him do some different things. I've already outlined why i think this year is different so I'm not going to do a deep dive on that again. But as I've said before, keep an open mind. When you're a player who's got a career 1.52 GB/FB rate and never had a rate lower than 1.20 and you suddenly have a GB/FB rate of 0.79, something is clearly different. And what you see with that is a player who's hard hit rate is 36.2%. His career average there is 29.9% with his two best seasons being 38.8% in his rookie season and 34.5% in 2012.

You add that up and you got a guy who's hitting more fly balls basically as hard as he ever has. That's a good formula for success vs the ground ball hitter he was the rest of his career really.

 

[A.C. Milan]

That's the issue with trying to improve. It's rarely a linear path. Obviously people have always wanted to squeeze more power out of Heyward and the cubs had him do some different things. I've already outlined why i think this year is different so I'm not going to do a deep dive on that again. But as I've said before, keep an open mind. When you're a player who's got a career 1.52 GB/FB rate and never had a rate lower than 1.20 and you suddenly have a GB/FB rate of 0.79, something is clearly different. And what you see with that is a player who's hard hit rate is 36.2%. His career average there is 29.9% with his two best seasons being 38.8% in his rookie season and 34.5% in 2012.

You add that up and you got a guy who's hitting more fly balls basically as hard as he ever has. That's a good formula for success vs the ground ball hitter he was the rest of his career really.

I'm not convinced yet because it's a small size, April 25th still too early to tell imho

 

[chibears55]

Is this all because y'all creamed in your pants when he signed with us two years ago and then he had a couple of bad years? He could win MVP every year for the next three years, and y'all are so upset at how disappointed you were with him that you just can't stand the thought of him being a Cub, no matter how much better he gets?

Lol.. a couple bad years like it no big deal..

I dont think anyone creamed their pants but yea it was exciting to see the cubs get a guy that was just 26 YO, a GG, and just come off 2 pretty good years in Avg and OBP..
He was supposed to be the no.2 hitter getting on base behind Fowler and ahead of the RBI guys..

Instead for the last 2 years they got a guy who dropped down to 8th in order and had a .306 and .326 OBP..
So yea it been disappointing with him so far..

He off to a pretty good start this year with a .360 OBP , before we annoint him an MVP let just hope he can maintain where he at ..


As far as next year and beyond..
It all about hoping to get Harper

Nothing against Heyward personally but as a fan , who would you prefer playing RF for the next 5 years, Heyward or Harper?

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