IST: Cubs @ Marlins

[CSF77]

The way I feel is the Cubs really can't trade Eloy right now. He is the only blue chip prospect in the system. Looking ahead they are going to need a middle of the order RH power bat. They have been filling that void with Russell, Zobrist, Happ and Contreras. All are good hitters but none have the same impact as Eloy can project to.

Now I get the other arguement Beck. A outfield with Schwarber and Eloy in it would be a train wreck. I do kinda agree. Eloy's biggest weakness is accuracy. It is kinda like Sammy Sosa. He had the arm strength to be able to fire a line drive over the 3B head into the stands...and he did it many times. But he also crushed 60 HR's a few times. PeD or not. Eloy has that same type of power potential with a canon. What he lacks is accuracy. Which is a learned trait vs something you are born with.

So at the end of the day I believe
Eloy is not a finished product and could become a everyday RF with the right coaching. Tools wise it is there. So honestly they could get by as long as the CF is top end.

Now on Gray. I'm ok with it. I would pay out Candy, Alozay and Clifton. Honestly with out blinking an eye. Alozay I'm feeling may end up top 100 after the season ends. That is how fast he has taken off.
Clifton is serviceable. Candy on the right line up could fit. A team with a power hitting MI would work with him as he is more of a OBA type that you can project.

Now trading any players that are on the 25 man is not going to happen. That includes Schwarber.

Now that said I feel for this year that they would be better off trying to trade for Justin Wilson. They would gain control for the 2018 season. Add to it they also gain a LH MR with 12.9 SO/9 and a WHIP of 1.098. He honestly pairs up with Edwards to become a dynamic 1/2 punch leading into Wade.

Seriously this is a guy they should target regardless if they also target a starter.

But looking at the top 4 starters:

Kyle hurt. So we really have to wait here to see if the time off has revamped a tired pitcher.

Last 30 days:
Jon: 2-2 4.98 ERA H/9: 8.65 BB/9: 2.36 SO/9: 8.65
Jake: 2-2 3.71 ERA H/9: 7.15, BB/9: 2.91 SO:9: 9.00
John: 1-4 4.63 ERA H/9: 7.20 BB/9: 3.34 SO/9: 6.69

Looking at it: Lackey has suffered most in SO/9. He is not knocking guys out like he used to. But H/9 all are respectable.

Like I said you could argue all are borderline play off pitchers right now. John is on the edge with his SO's down but that factor is not pushing him too far into the negative.

As far as pitcher WAR so far. Montgomery leads the staff at 1.1 with Edwards at 1.0 Davis .9. Lester .7, Hendricks: .6, Butler: .2, Lackey: 0, Jake: -.1 That is current.

Sonny Gray is at a .2 WAR right now. Which is #3 on the staff. Q on the sox is at .7. And think of him as equal to Lester. So he would cost Eloy. Juston Wilson is a .8 WAR in relief. That is the same impact that Wade is giving. Cole: 1.4 WAR. He would cost more than Q. Archer 1.1 WAR. Not as much WAR as Cole but more control bought.

You could pretty much say Sonny is a 3 on the Cubs. Cole and Archer are the ace. Q is a 1A with Lester. That is what you would be buying. Wilson in the pen is equal to Wade. Which is a huge impact.

So spend wisely.

 

[CSF77]

Oh, and the Rangers are not going to trade Darvish. They want to resign him. Main reason is Shohei Otani worships Darvish. No better lure. Trading him gives him insite to other teams which lessens the chances to resign. It has too many minuses to gain a few prospects.

Honestly Looking it over Sonny holds probably the most upside. Moving Montgomery to the pen in the post season nets the largest pen improvement that they can gain. There is not a arm on the market that gives that amount of WAR. Darvish most likely stays on Tex. Cubs would use Sonny to replace Lackey with Montgomery as a full time starter next year. Then they have to look at a high leverage lefty.

As far as a 5th starter I believe they would have to look at it 1 year at a time. Tseng would be in AAA next year and would become the first internal bottom of the rotation option. As far as a TOR option. It really depends on Hatch. If what he is doing sustains through AA next year he could have Sonny Gray upside.

 

[Hammer]

The problem with Gray is that after an early success, hitters figured him out, plus he has smallish stature, and when those type loses it, it's kinda hard to expect to ever get it back (he looks like a total crap for 2nd straight year).

If I were making decisions, Eloy would be hurried up to AA, and would try to cash in on Schwarber/Baez in a trade for TOR starer with some AL team (that has a need for DH or infield D).

 

[beckdawg]

Eloy's biggest weakness is accuracy.

I don't care about his accuracy. I care about his range. That's what makes Jason Heyward the star defensively he is. Eloy is a below average runner already. When he inevitably starts putting muscle on that huge frame it's only going to get worse. That's why I'm confident in saying he's not a RFer. As for the Sosa comp, people likely forget that Sosa stole 36 bases in 93. In other words, he ran well. Jiminez as a 19 year old stole 8 last year.

As for being the cubs only blue chip prospect, I don't really agree. I mean if you're saying what do the cubs have today that would net a big trade piece that isn't on the MLB roster then sure he's the only one. But that's a very simplistic view of development. The cubs signed Torres and Jiminez in 2013. It wasn't until 2015 for Torres and 2016 for Jiminez that they really started opening eyes. The most recent crop of IFA's signed in 2015 have had all of a year or so to develop. But they gave 7 hitters(Henderson Perez, Eddy Martinez, Amaya, Ademan, Sierra, Kwang-Min Kwon and Perlaza) more than $1 mil not to mention the money they spent on Albertos. They also spent $800k on Paredes and Christopher Morel. They spent $600k on Yunior Perez and Brailyn Marquez. That's a rather huge investment into IFA. There's lessor guys signed too but anything over $500k is generally a name worth consideration. So at the very least the cubs have a lot of depth of talent if not premium.

I also think the hype is a bit much on Eloy. He's going to live or die on his bat in a similar way to Schwarber. He's slightly better defensively but it's not a huge gap. While it is a good bat, it's not better than Schwarber's. Most put Eloy's hit tool as a 50-55. Schwarber had a 60 grade hit tool and more power. I've seen a number of cubs fans criticize Schwarber for being a slugger not a hitter. The scouting would suggest Jiminez is more of that. If someone prefers Eloy over Schwarber I'm not going to get that bent out of shape over it. While I think they are wrong, my view is that they are essentially the same player and that you pick the one you like and move the other. And honestly I think Eloy the prospect has more value than the player he's likely to be. I mean let's say he's a young Nelson Cruz. From age 24-32 Nelson Cruz had a 3.0 fWAR season and a 4.9 fWAR season as his only above 2. I've heard some mention Stanton as a possible comp. Jiminez doesn't have anywhere near the track record to put with Stanton's 11.6% career walk rate. But setting that aside, the only seasons Staton had above 3 fWAR were all 140+ wRC+. That's a pretty tall order given Rizzo was a 145 wRC+ last year and as mentioned Jiminez hasn't shown that kind of walk rate. Soler is another comp and well we know how that has gone thus far.

I'm just not seeing Jiminez being this transcendent bat. I think in particular the Cruz comp is probably a pretty fair bet on his potential. He's a career .276/.340/.516 hitter with 8.4%/22.4% bb/k rates. Jiminez doesn't have the same speed but as a hitter I could see him being that. Cruz has always been a good heart of the order bat but my point here is it's not as though he's impossible to replace. And if we're choosing between Schwarber and Jiminez, I'll note the lowest wRC+ Schwarber posted at any level in the minors was 166 in A+. Jiminez's best was last year in south bend at 162. I know we live in a "what have you done for me lately" world but I think people forget just how nuts Schwarber was in the minors.

 

[beckdawg]

Oh also for what it's wroth, I'll take Jonathan Sierra's long term value over Jiminez. I think Jiminez probably slugs more than Sierra will. With that being said, in the DSL last year Sierra hit .264/.384/.341 with 14.0%/18.2% bb/k rates as a 17 year old. He also stole 12 bases in 64 games. Jiminez as a 17 year old in a slightly better Mesa rookie league hit .227/.268/.367 with 6.1%/19.5% bb/k rates. Scouts compare Sierra to Darryl Strawberry. I can easily see the average/OBP comp. Power on Sierra right now is more of a projection though but he's a big kid(6'3 190).

That might be a bit of a fools bet given Jiminez is closer to the majors but I really believe in Sierra. And unlike Jiminez the scouting on him indicates he can stick in RF. And other than Eddy Martinez who was older, Sierra is the player the cubs gave the biggest bonus to in the 2015 class.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

The problem with Gray is that after an early success, hitters figured him out, plus he has smallish stature, and when those type loses it, it's kinda hard to expect to ever get it back (he looks like a total crap for 2nd straight year).

If I were making decisions, Eloy would be hurried up to AA, and would try to cash in on Schwarber/Baez in a trade for TOR starer with some AL team (that has a need for DH or infield D).

Gray's peripherals suggest that a change of scenery would do him good. His FIP and xFIP are 3.62 and 3.51 respectively.

 

[CSF77]

I don't care about his accuracy. I care about his range. That's what makes Jason Heyward the star defensively he is. Eloy is a below average runner already. When he inevitably starts putting muscle on that huge frame it's only going to get worse. That's why I'm confident in saying he's not a RFer. As for the Sosa comp, people likely forget that Sosa stole 36 bases in 93. In other words, he ran well. Jiminez as a 19 year old stole 8 last year.

As for being the cubs only blue chip prospect, I don't really agree. I mean if you're saying what do the cubs have today that would net a big trade piece that isn't on the MLB roster then sure he's the only one. But that's a very simplistic view of development. The cubs signed Torres and Jiminez in 2013. It wasn't until 2015 for Torres and 2016 for Jiminez that they really started opening eyes. The most recent crop of IFA's signed in 2015 have had all of a year or so to develop. But they gave 7 hitters(Henderson Perez, Eddy Martinez, Amaya, Ademan, Sierra, Kwang-Min Kwon and Perlaza) more than $1 mil not to mention the money they spent on Albertos. They also spent $800k on Paredes and Christopher Morel. They spent $600k on Yunior Perez and Brailyn Marquez. That's a rather huge investment into IFA. There's lessor guys signed too but anything over $500k is generally a name worth consideration. So at the very least the cubs have a lot of depth of talent if not premium.

I also think the hype is a bit much on Eloy. He's going to live or die on his bat in a similar way to Schwarber. He's slightly better defensively but it's not a huge gap. While it is a good bat, it's not better than Schwarber's. Most put Eloy's hit tool as a 50-55. Schwarber had a 60 grade hit tool and more power. I've seen a number of cubs fans criticize Schwarber for being a slugger not a hitter. The scouting would suggest Jiminez is more of that. If someone prefers Eloy over Schwarber I'm not going to get that bent out of shape over it. While I think they are wrong, my view is that they are essentially the same player and that you pick the one you like and move the other. And honestly I think Eloy the prospect has more value than the player he's likely to be. I mean let's say he's a young Nelson Cruz. From age 24-32 Nelson Cruz had a 3.0 fWAR season and a 4.9 fWAR season as his only above 2. I've heard some mention Stanton as a possible comp. Jiminez doesn't have anywhere near the track record to put with Stanton's 11.6% career walk rate. But setting that aside, the only seasons Staton had above 3 fWAR were all 140+ wRC+. That's a pretty tall order given Rizzo was a 145 wRC+ last year and as mentioned Jiminez hasn't shown that kind of walk rate. Soler is another comp and well we know how that has gone thus far.

I'm just not seeing Jiminez being this transcendent bat. I think in particular the Cruz comp is probably a pretty fair bet on his potential. He's a career .276/.340/.516 hitter with 8.4%/22.4% bb/k rates. Jiminez doesn't have the same speed but as a hitter I could see him being that. Cruz has always been a good heart of the order bat but my point here is it's not as though he's impossible to replace. And if we're choosing between Schwarber and Jiminez, I'll note the lowest wRC+ Schwarber posted at any level in the minors was 166 in A+. Jiminez's best was last year in south bend at 162. I know we live in a "what have you done for me lately" world but I think people forget just how nuts Schwarber was in the minors.

So he is over rated.
Sell early.


I put up some player WAR values. If you sell Jimenez you have to go big. Archer would be that guy.

What you said is fair enough.

 

[A.C. Milan]

Stop being cheap, pay TOR pitchers in the offseason, now we should call the Sux and ask them what they want for Q

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Stop being cheap, pay TOR pitchers in the offseason, now we should call the Sux and ask them what they want for Q

Who's being cheap? Who would you have spent money on in terms of pitching the last two years? The bottom line is that there haven't been any TOR pitchers available to buy and there may not be any this offseason if Darvish re-ups with Texas. That leaves a trade and frankly even there the pickings are slim. If Archer becomes available, either this year or in the offseason, you make that move and if that means losing Jimenez then so be it.

 

[CSF77]

Ya all signs are showing that Darvish is going to be aggressively tried to be retained. There is a slim opertunity to get him. Jake is right after him and we see how bad the market is in F/A. If Jake is considered one of the best then the market will be bad.

I'm all about Archer. Q is fine as a player but he is a 2. He has never been a staff ace. We already have a damn good 2 in Lester

 

[chibears55]

Who would of thought on June 25th....

Jon Jay .318 and Miguel Montero .280 would be the top 2 Avg. Hitters on team..

Ian Happ would have almost as many hits Hrs RBI as Schwarber

Happ 33 hits 10 HR 22 RBI
Schwarber 38 hits 12 HR 28 RBI

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Who would of thought on June 25th....

Jon Jay .318 and Miguel Montero .280 would be the top 2 Avg. Hitters on team..

Ian Happ would have almost as many hits Hrs RBI as Schwarber

Happ 33 hits 10 HR 22 RBI
Schwarber 38 hits 12 HR 28 RBI

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

You consistently overvalue BA as a gauge of offensive player value. The Cubs do have 3 players with OPS well over .900 and those same 3 over 130 in wRC+ and 3 more over 110 wRC+. The offense has definitely underperformed but not to the degree one would get by using BA alone which is just not a very telling stat.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Rough start for Montgomery. Offense needs to do what it did yesterday.

 

[A.C. Milan]

Here we go again, damn

 

[A.C. Milan]

Who's being cheap? Who would you have spent money on in terms of pitching the last two years? The bottom line is that there haven't been any TOR pitchers available to buy and there may not be any this offseason if Darvish re-ups with Texas. That leaves a trade and frankly even there the pickings are slim. If Archer becomes available, either this year or in the offseason, you make that move and if that means losing Jimenez then so be it.

I'm ok with Archer not so much with Darwish

 

[chibears55]

Cubs better find a way to win this one, next 4 gonna be really rough..

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk

 

[TL1961]

Easy out to LaStella, and he turns it into a hit by throwing a rainbow to first. Ridiculous to score it a hit, BTW.

Now the runner moves up on wild pitch / passed ball (whichever).

Bad bad baseball.

Volquez cant throw strikes, but so far has not allowed a run.

Clean this stuff up!

Trying to win with Ladtella and Jay starting, can't give them runs.

 

[Globetrotter]

I'm a few innings behind.

Volquez can't throw a damned strike and they just keep swinging. Unbelievable.

 

[TL1961]

OBP was a strength last year, largely because they took walks. Need to keep doing so.

 

[TL1961]

Helluva defensive alignment right now.

Count the guys not at their best position.