IST: Cubs @ Pirates

[85Bears]

Well, that was scary. Don't give a shit about the loss, but Arrieta just looked bad...

I don't really trust him either right now. Even pitching #3 in the playoffs is a bit scary, but he'll be on a short leash so I'm ok with it. Let's hope we're up 2-0 when he pitches each series.

Baseball's funny. Considering last year, it's hard to believe Arrieta and Hendricks have kind of switched places.

 

[SilenceS]

Pitching a completely meaningless game. I would put to much stock into it. Its a different animal with focus. Im perfectly fine with the rotation we have going in the playoffs. Much deeper than last years.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Pitching a completely meaningless game. I would put to much stock into it. Its a different animal with focus. Im perfectly fine with the rotation we have going in the playoffs. Much deeper than last years.

I'm perfectly fine with our rotation, too - but I don't trust Arrieta. At this point, I have him in as the 4th starter. I'd rather have Lackey on the mound in game 3.


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[anotheridiot]

I'm perfectly fine with our rotation, too - but I don't trust Arrieta. At this point, I have him in as the 4th starter. I'd rather have Lackey on the mound in game 3.


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Difference being Lackey has closed out big series with good performances. Jake had a glitch again, but he was barking at the ump early, then threw one straight down broadway on the next pitch that was also called a ball. Hopefully last nights ump has no place in the playoffs.

 

[CSF77]

I would look at it as how Joe has lined them up.

Lackey closed out first then Jake. Hammel will close out last. I would place them 3-5 in that order.

Last 2 games are Jon and Kyle. I see them leading off to keep them fresh.

Jake should end up the #4. He has been less stable than Lackey. Lackey can toss a turd but it is more to do with not having a working breaking pitch that night. Jake could have everything on and just give up the farm. He is more of a 50% quality start rate right now.

If they can avoid him in the first round the better.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Isn't that exactly what I said in the initial post? My point was more he needs to be in the 5-6% walk rate range(3.6% right now). You made it seem like he needed to be in the 8-10% range and that's where I took issue.

No. Go argue with Dantown.

 

[beckdawg]

No. Go argue with Dantown.

I still have no idea what your point was but whatever. I'm not that invested in this.

 

[Omeletpants]

18-8 and you guys are shitting on Arietta?

 

[chibears55]

18-8 and you guys are shitting on Arietta?

18-8
197 IP
190 Ks
3.10 ERA
1.08 Whip

Not sure how one can complain or down a SP with those numbers, even with some bad outings.

You tell me a guy with those numbers is your team 3rd starter in playoffs, you gotta feel good with your team chances to win series


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[CSF77]

18-8 and you guys are shitting on Arietta?

Ive seen too many turds in those starts. Jake is getting 7 run support per start so his record is inflated. John has gotten the least support at 4.1. And his record reflects it.

End of the day Jake has a higher top and lower bottom end than Lackey. With the Cubs O you want a guy to keep the game in check vs putting them into a hole early again.

 

[Omeletpants]

In the clutch I like Airretta

 

[CSF77]

In the clutch I like Airretta

Game 3 should be against their ace. You know going in that runs are hard to come by. So just going with the odds you have to look at both Jake and John and look at their outings. See which one faired better in low run support games out of the 2.

 

[Hammer]

Arrieta started 9-0, and completely fell apart after SAS mentioned something about his possible PED use, he went 9-8 afterwards, so yeah, that's a huge concern.

 

[SilenceS]

Arrieta started 9-0, and completely fell apart after SAS mentioned something about his possible PED use, he went 9-8 afterwards, so yeah, that's a huge concern.

What his ERA was still in the mid 3's after? The guy was coming off the best 25 game run in MLB history. What is wrong with people? The playoffs are a different animal. He will be well rested. There is no huge concern just over zealous Cubs fans that are looking for any excuse to be concerned about the playoffs.

 

[Hammer]

If you count only his last 20 games (from June, after 9-0 start), his ERA is in 4+ range (4.27 to be exact), and his WHIP is at 1.20, while his W-L record is 9-8.

IMO, that's kinda terrible for #3 pitcher, especially from Playoffs perspective.

 

[DJMoore_is_fat]

Arrieta started 9-0, and completely fell apart after SAS mentioned something about his possible PED use, he went 9-8 afterwards, so yeah, that's a huge concern.

Yeah my buddy and I were talking about this. I mean, you hate to accuse anybody - especially one of our own. But he's not even close to the same pitcher as last year. And of course he had a historical, record-breaking year last year. So there was no way he could replicate that. But he doesn't even resemble the pitcher he was. I'm not very confident in him right now.

He, at least sounds confident. He said whoever he faces in the NLDS is in "trouble." He said the same thing against Pittsburgh and dominated them last year. Let's hope he knows something we don't.

 

[SilenceS]

If you count only his last 20 games (from June, after 9-0 start), his ERA is in 4+ range (4.27 to be exact), and his WHIP is at 1.20, while his W-L record is 9-8.

IMO, that's kinda terrible for #3 pitcher, especially from Playoffs perspective.

Also, if I take out 5 of those games his numbers drop significantly. Is this the game we are trying to play? It comes down to walks. He loses control then he has issues. There is nothing wrong with his stuff. Baseball is a game of ups and downs. What Jake has done in his last 20 starts means absolutely nothing in the playoffs. Look what he did last year and he struggled a bit in the playoffs. I am perfectly confident him throwing game 3 or 4 of a series. Look at the Royals staff last year. Cubs kill them. But, its kinda terrible. I get it.

 

[Hammer]

What I'm afraid is that SAS was onto something, Arrieta got scared, stop doing whatever he was doing, and irreversibly imploded afterwards.
Because going from 2.0 ERA to 4+ is kinda extreme, and now we don't know whom we'll get in Playoffs, pre or post June Arrieta.

But in the end, Cubs have strong bullpen so they can hopefully survive potentially $hitty start from bottom rotation guys (Lackey & Arrieta).

 

[Diehardfan]

Arrieta started 9-0, and completely fell apart after SAS mentioned something about his possible PED use, he went 9-8 afterwards, so yeah, that's a huge concern.

Ridiculous. PED's supposedly give your fastball a boost and a quicker recovery time from pitching. The chart below indicates that is not the case...his fastball has been just about the same from his early years to 2016. His problem is control...too many deep counts which lead to walks which leads early exits as his pitch counts rise.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=453562&b_hand=-1&time=month&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=09/29/2016&gFilt=allmlb

 

[TL1961]

What I'm afraid is that SAS was onto something, Arrieta got scared, stop doing whatever he was doing, and irreversibly imploded afterwards.
Because going from 2.0 ERA to 4+ is kinda extreme, and now we don't know whom we'll get in Playoffs, pre or post June Arrieta.

But in the end, Cubs have strong bullpen so they can hopefully survive potentially $hitty start from bottom rotation guys (Lackey & Arrieta).

So he stopped taking the pills that gave him better control?