IST: Cubs @ Pirates

[CSF77]

I agree you go with the best D. I think it comes down to whether Russell outplays Zobrist or Happ. And offense on the bench for PH is a good thing, too.

But I think trading Schwarber would be a mistake, especially selling low.

How is trading Schwarber for a starting pitcher like Archer or Cole selling low? Even at max potential it is a solid trade.

TOR > Primium hitting.

 

[CSF77]

I've never heard it, because it's Luzinski.

Monica Lewinsky

Greg Luzinski

The fact that you have even heard of him is outstanding. 70-80's era

But he is a good Comp right now.

 

[fatbeard]

Utter Collapse. Yes. 5 games back both teams now. Cubs are just too good, too experienced. Yes, it would be an epic collapse. For me, the Cubs have always been the best team in the Central. And they were the only ones to really take it seriously with trades this year as well. I get your pessimism. But you are entitled to start the kool-aid drinking.

Yeah, the skittishness is just weird at this point. The Cubs have a five-game lead on 8 Sep. They're winning roughly 2/3rds of their games in the second half. Their Pythagorean puts them at 79-61, so they've even slightly under performed their run differential. And they've done most of it while overcoming injuries to Contreras, Russell, and various dings to the SP. There's no smoke and mirrors here; the Cubs are not going to revert back to the .500 team they were in the first half.

It's like, after blowing the doors off the league last year, people forgot what a typical successful baseball season looks like.

 

[brett05]

How is trading Schwarber for a starting pitcher like Archer or Cole selling low? Even at max potential it is a solid trade.

TOR > Primium hitting.

Neither of those two are coming for Kyle.

 

[brett05]

Yeah, the skittishness is just weird at this point. The Cubs have a five-game lead on 8 Sep. They're winning roughly 2/3rds of their games in the second half. Their Pythagorean puts them at 79-61, so they've even slightly under performed their run differential. And they've done most of it while overcoming injuries to Contreras, Russell, and various dings to the SP. There's no smoke and mirrors here; the Cubs are not going to revert back to the .500 team they were in the first half.

It's like, after blowing the doors off the league last year, people forgot what a typical successful baseball season looks like.

I think I just died, we agree.

 

[CSF77]

Neither of those two are coming for Kyle.

Not for him alone.

Also as a LF no way at all. As a catcher his value jumps.

We really don't know his potential as a backstop. All I heard was good hands. Which is pretty ambiguous. Could mean catches well. Or good a framing etc.

Strong arm. We saw some strong throws from left. Accurate?

Honestly he may end up league avg with the innings. Just with Contreras that will never happen.

So as a catcher with 30-40 HR potential his value can be part of a Cole trade. As a LF no.

 

[anotheridiot]

I agree you go with the best D. I think it comes down to whether Russell outplays Zobrist or Happ. And offense on the bench for PH is a good thing, too.

But I think trading Schwarber would be a mistake, especially selling low.

There is no outplaying Zobrist and his deal with Maddon for playing time. Zobrist will be in every playoff game period.

 

[fatbeard]

I think I just died, we agree.

It happens.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Not for him alone.

Also as a LF no way at all. As a catcher his value jumps.

We really don't know his potential as a backstop. All I heard was good hands. Which is pretty ambiguous. Could mean catches well. Or good a framing etc.

Strong arm. We saw some strong throws from left. Accurate?

Honestly he may end up league avg with the innings. Just with Contreras that will never happen.

So as a catcher with 30-40 HR potential his value can be part of a Cole trade. As a LF no.

In an interview on MLB Radio last week Kyle said he's pretty much given up on his dream of catching. This kid is so young and I still think will materialize into a very good hitter, not just a slugger, that I would be very hesitant to deal him. That said you can see a fit with Tampa Bay. Pitching they have, it's bats they need to be a true contender in 2018. I could see Russell, Schwarber and one of the young pitchers as an offer for Archer. That makes both teams much better.

 

[brett05]

In an interview on MLB Radio last week Kyle said he's pretty much given up on his dream of catching. This kid is so young and I still think will materialize into a very good hitter, not just a slugger, that I would be very hesitant to deal him. That said you can see a fit with Tampa Bay. Pitching they have, it's bats they need to be a true contender in 2018. I could see Russell, Schwarber and one of the young pitchers as an offer for Archer. That makes both teams much better.

TB would think long about that deal I believe.

 

[fatbeard]

TB would think long about that deal I believe.

No they wouldn't, they would accept it without hesitation.

 

[brett05]

No they wouldn't, they would accept it without hesitation.

Im not so sure, there's things to contemplate plus you would check to see if you could get better offers.

 

[TL1961]

Small sample size, but Russell graded out extremely well in the ~750 innings he played at 2B in 2015. Certainly passed the eye test as a GG-caliber defender there. Not sure where these phantom concerns over his ability to turn a double play there are coming from.

I have already acknowledged my mistake in forgetting his experience at 2nd. What would you like me to do?

 

[TL1961]

How is trading Schwarber for a starting pitcher like Archer or Cole selling low? Even at max potential it is a solid trade.

TOR > Primium hitting.

Oh, I missed the part where we were getting back a TOR pitcher, since that was not part of the scenario.

Yes, if Kershaw is coming back make the trade. Or even Trout. We will find a spot. ��

 

[TL1961]

In an interview on MLB Radio last week Kyle said he's pretty much given up on his dream of catching. This kid is so young and I still think will materialize into a very good hitter, not just a slugger, that I would be very hesitant to deal him. That said you can see a fit with Tampa Bay. Pitching they have, it's bats they need to be a true contender in 2018. I could see Russell, Schwarber and one of the young pitchers as an offer for Archer. That makes both teams much better.

That would go down as the Cubs worst trade ever. Ever.

Russell at SS needs to be a cornerstone of this team going forward. You do not give away young SS with terrific glove and great offensive potential.

Untouchable.

 

[CSF77]

For Archer?

I would look at it as Lester, Archer, Q, Hendricks, Montgomery

OF: Happ, Almora, Heyward

IF: Bryant, Baez, Zobrist, Rizzo

C: Contreras

Now I'm werry about 2B to be honest. Moreso than trading Russell. Zo is a injury away for 162 games and honestly little upside in the upper minors.

Happ could goto 2B but again no big bat Corner OF.

IMO Happ gives better D at LF. Possible D at 2B

Now they could also do a full prospect unload and go after Dee Gordon. That would retool the line up giving premium speed at the top

Trade value: really don't care. The only thing worth winning is the series not the trade value war.

 

[fatbeard]

Im not so sure, there's things to contemplate plus you would check to see if you could get better offers.

I think it's pretty simple. Archer's worth about 4 WAR per year, but he's 28 and you're going to lose him after 2019, and you're not going to be competitive in the meantime. Russell and Schwarber are 23/24, and cost-controlled for a long time. A realistic floor for them going forward is probably 6 WAR combined. If they both turn into perennial All-Stars you're looking at a ceiling upwards of 12 WAR. So, if you're the Rays, you're trading one roster spot worth 4 WAR but that you're going to lose anyways for a consistent 8-10 WAR that you're going to keep for a long time, and filling two spots in the process. The Rays take that deal without hesitation. Good thing Epstein would never offer it.

 

[SilenceS]

We aren't trading Baez? I thought he been gone for 3 years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think it's pretty simple. Archer's worth about 4 WAR per year, but he's 28 and you're going to lose him after 2019, and you're not going to be competitive in the meantime. Russell and Schwarber are 23/24, and cost-controlled for a long time. A realistic floor for them going forward is probably 6 WAR combined. If they both turn into perennial All-Stars you're looking at a ceiling upwards of 12 WAR. So, if you're the Rays, you're trading one roster spot worth 4 WAR but that you're going to lose anyways for a consistent 8-10 WAR that you're going to keep for a long time, and filling two spots in the process. The Rays take that deal without hesitation. Good thing Epstein would never offer it.

The bolded text is not right. Archer is not a FA in 2019. He has very friendly team options in 2020 and 2021 never making more than $8.25 million which is about 25% of his value if he was on the open market. I'm not positive I'd make the deal either, I'm pretty fond of Schwarber and Russell, but Archer is a TOR pitcher and you either over pay in talent or money and with so few of them available you look at the options.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That would go down as the Cubs worst trade ever. Ever.

Russell at SS needs to be a cornerstone of this team going forward. You do not give away young SS with terrific glove and great offensive potential.

Untouchable.

I think the one thing you're forgetting about Russell is we have no idea what the Cubs think about his character at this point and that matters to them. There are rumors that he was told to enter rehab and refused. I have no idea if they are true but those rumors are out there. If, on the other hand, they don't think the personal business is a big issue and they believe in him as a person going forward, then no there is absolutely no way he moves. These are things we have zero idea about so I'm not speculating either way.