IST: Cubs @ Pirates

[CSF77]

That kinda factors in but those are fine details vs core issues.

If he was causing a Zambrano sized clubhouse problems then I would get it. Dude is far too quiet to even think of those ego issues.

I believe it has more to do with Baez's play at SS and Russell's trade value. All things said Russell is a top 5 D SS. That carries trade value. HR power Baez has a edge. BA Baez. OBA. Wash and so on. They are honestly pretty close in WAR value.

What I think of is where in the line up they hit. Contreras is a 4 hitter. After that you expect Happ or Schwarber hitting 5. Then 6-8 you prefer R//L/R. Add to it more on the contact side due to having more OBA/higher BB types ahead of them. Castro comes to mind here where he feasted hitting lower in the order.

Ideally you would prefer Almora/Heyward/Baez in those spots cleaning up OBA.

So again I'm fine with them dealing out Russell just because he holds ideal trade weight and Baez kinda fits the line up better right now.

 

[beckdawg]

Frankly I doubt the cubs are dealing anyone off their current roster with the possible exception of Zobrist this offseason. A typical "full" season is 650 or so PAs. If we look at the main guys who are sorta blocked right now you have Almora at 348 PAs, Jay at 365 PAs, Schwarber at 437 PAs, Happ at 348 though obviously he was late to the dance, Russell at 348 PAs(injured), Baez at 445 and Zobrist at 421.

Given all that I think it's a safe assumption that Jay is gone next year. For the sake of argument let's say Almora ends this year at 400 PAs which seems possible with ~20 games left. To get him to a "full time player" he needs another 250 PAs. Given Jay is likely gone taking most of those from him seems reasonable. Happ too will likely end around 400 PAs. With Jay gone next year those two can rather effectively eat his PAs and get close to full time play. Schwarber is going to sit some vs LHP and you can also play Happ in LF some as well.

I think the problem becomes how you fit Zobrist and Schwarber both in the line up if you have Baez and Russell up the middle. Said this earlier in the thread but I don't really see that Zobrist deserves to start at this point. From my stand point he's basically Schwarber without the power. I wouldn't hate him as a bench player but at $16 mil next year does that really make sense and would he really take that sort of demotion? Tough to say.

On Baez I've sort of changed my opinion. I still am frustrated by the flaws I've always had but Russell getting hurt does illustrate how big a deal depth is. What I really like about the current structure of the cubs is they have so many guys who can play multiple positions. I don't love Happ's CF defense but he's been decent enough there and he can play LF and 2B. So between Happ and Schwarber/Almora/Baez you've covered LF/CF/2B. Almora can also fill in for Heyward if needed in RF. Baez can cover Russell at SS and Bryant at 3B. Really the only 2 position the cubs don't have multiiple starter level players is 1B and C. Zobrist actually would make that better as a bench guy too but as mentioned who knows if he'd take that role.

Long story short I basically see the position group being OF - Schwarber, Happ(sometimes 2B), Almora Heyward +1 5th OF type(maybe Martin re-signs) - IF Bryant Rizzo Russell Baez and one of Zobrist/La Stella C - Conteras and either Caratini or some FA lefty.

 

[DanTown]

I think it's pretty simple. Archer's worth about 4 WAR per year, but he's 28 and you're going to lose him after 2019, and you're not going to be competitive in the meantime. Russell and Schwarber are 23/24, and cost-controlled for a long time. A realistic floor for them going forward is probably 6 WAR combined. If they both turn into perennial All-Stars you're looking at a ceiling upwards of 12 WAR. So, if you're the Rays, you're trading one roster spot worth 4 WAR but that you're going to lose anyways for a consistent 8-10 WAR that you're going to keep for a long time, and filling two spots in the process. The Rays take that deal without hesitation. Good thing Epstein would never offer it.

There isn't enough talent to trade for Archer, Quintana, a year of Chapman, Avila/Wilson, and still field a competitive team.

They made their choice for Q because the cost was likely far less than Archer.

 

[TL1961]

I don't believe they will trade Russell, and if they do, I believe it will haunt them for years.

 

[beckdawg]

Also for what it's worth, I'd rather the cubs go after Masahiro Tanaka via trade if he doesn't opt out. I think he's a good buy low candidate.

 

[DanTown]

The idea the Cubs should trade a guy like Russell because he's "blocked" by say Zobrist or some other vet is ridiculous. Just go with Almora/Happ platoon in CF, Schwarber/Dyson (yes, would have to sign him, I understand) platoon in LF, Russell/Baez at SS/2B and then have Zobrist kind of fill in.

Vs LHP
Dyson - LF
Almora - CF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Contreras - C
Russell - SS
Heyward/Zobrist - RF
Baez - SS

Vs RHP
Happ - CF
Bryant - 3B
Rizzo - 1B
Contreras - C
Schwarber - LF
Russell- SS
Heyward - RF
Baez - 2B

You're going to have injuries and times when guys need a day so it's fine.

 

[DanTown]

Also for what it's worth, I'd rather the cubs go after Masahiro Tanaka via trade if he doesn't opt out. I think he's a good buy low candidate.

By "buy low" do you mean "6/150" because he's probably going to get that unless his arm grades out as "Tommy John tomorrow".

 

[beckdawg]

By "buy low" do you mean "6/150" because he's probably going to get that unless his arm grades out as "Tommy John tomorrow".

If he doesn't opt out he's at 3 years $67 mil. I'm not entirely convinced after a mid 4 ERA he's going to opt out. I'd be rather surprised if he was able to get $25 mil/year after 2017. For example compare him and Shark. Think that's more in line with the deal he'd get.

 

[beckdawg]

For reference here, the only pitchers this year making more than $25 mil are Kershaw($35,571,428), Grienke($34,000,000), Price($30,000,000), Verlander($28,000,000), King Felix($26,857,142), Lester($25,000,000), and CC($25,000,000). So suggesting he's a lock to get $25 mil a year is a pretty big stretch in my eyes. That's basically Cy Young money and even as good as he was in 2016 he wasn't *that good*. Think best case for him is more #2/3 money which frankly at $22 mil this year he's already making hence why I doubt he opts out.

 

[CSF77]

Frankly I doubt the cubs are dealing anyone off their current roster with the possible exception of Zobrist this offseason. A typical "full" season is 650 or so PAs. If we look at the main guys who are sorta blocked right now you have Almora at 348 PAs, Jay at 365 PAs, Schwarber at 437 PAs, Happ at 348 though obviously he was late to the dance, Russell at 348 PAs(injured), Baez at 445 and Zobrist at 421.

Given all that I think it's a safe assumption that Jay is gone next year. For the sake of argument let's say Almora ends this year at 400 PAs which seems possible with ~20 games left. To get him to a "full time player" he needs another 250 PAs. Given Jay is likely gone taking most of those from him seems reasonable. Happ too will likely end around 400 PAs. With Jay gone next year those two can rather effectively eat his PAs and get close to full time play. Schwarber is going to sit some vs LHP and you can also play Happ in LF some as well.

I think the problem becomes how you fit Zobrist and Schwarber both in the line up if you have Baez and Russell up the middle. Said this earlier in the thread but I don't really see that Zobrist deserves to start at this point. From my stand point he's basically Schwarber without the power. I wouldn't hate him as a bench player but at $16 mil next year does that really make sense and would he really take that sort of demotion? Tough to say.

On Baez I've sort of changed my opinion. I still am frustrated by the flaws I've always had but Russell getting hurt does illustrate how big a deal depth is. What I really like about the current structure of the cubs is they have so many guys who can play multiple positions. I don't love Happ's CF defense but he's been decent enough there and he can play LF and 2B. So between Happ and Schwarber/Almora/Baez you've covered LF/CF/2B. Almora can also fill in for Heyward if needed in RF. Baez can cover Russell at SS and Bryant at 3B. Really the only 2 position the cubs don't have multiiple starter level players is 1B and C. Zobrist actually would make that better as a bench guy too but as mentioned who knows if he'd take that role.

Long story short I basically see the position group being OF - Schwarber, Happ(sometimes 2B), Almora Heyward +1 5th OF type(maybe Martin re-signs) - IF Bryant Rizzo Russell Baez and one of Zobrist/La Stella C - Conteras and either Caratini or some FA lefty.

650 is kinda high. on a 162 game avg 4 PA's it comes up 648. A 1-4 hitter may avg 5 per: or 810 PA. But that is unlikely. A 6-8 hitter would max out closer to 650 PA's.

last year Bryant led the team with 699 batting #2. Russell was middle of the line up and had 598 PA's last year.

So being real: Bryant and Rizzo played 155 games last year. That should be the cap from any full time player. So if we are talking Happ/Baez/Almora/Heyward etc then we should expect 145-155 being a target GP per year.

Contreras would fall a little short due to the wear and tear that the job demands. He may get some reps off catcher to keep his bat in more but honestly expecting more than 140 games caught is a reach. Thus I would like to retain a Avila due to his hitting ability. Then moving Contreras off position is not a loss at catcher production. A back up plan would be Caratini. Mostly due to a lacking of experience vs anything. He is a bat first guy that can play off position also but I tend to like plug'n play back ups vs learning curve types in more demanding roles.

But over all I'll still hold to dealing Russell if we get a Archer type in return. F/A market wise Jake is pretty much the top F/A and is ready to fall off his prime production right now. That deal will end up a eye sore when it is done. The only guy worth getting aggressive about is Yu Darvish. Even then he has been pretty pedestrian on a world champion quality squad. 2-2 4.50.... Sure the strike outs are nice but come on now.

 

[CSF77]

oh I tend to agree with the depth thing that Baez and Russell give but to be honest that is a luxury. A need is a TOR.

They could run
Baez SS, Zobrist 2B (under contract til 2019). Tommy La Stella hits A1 this offseason. Freeman, Mike only at .38 ML service. So they have control. Add to that they also have Chesny Young who is MLB ready and can cover everything except pitcher and catcher.

They have plenty of UI types that they can sort through.

 

[beckdawg]

650 is kinda high. on a 162 game avg 4 PA's it comes up 648. A 1-4 hitter may avg 5 per: or 810 PA. But that is unlikely. A 6-8 hitter would max out closer to 650 PA's.

Not really. Last year the numbers break down like this

#1 772 PAs
#2 753 PAs
#3 735 PAs
#4 721 PAs
#5 703 PAs
#6 688 PAs
#7 677 PAs
#8 656 PAs

So if you play 162 games at a position you're going to get 650 PAs. Now realistically you're not going to play a guy 162 games but you're also going to have some PH situations. But using Bryant as an example, he has gone 151 games 650 PAs, 155 games 699 PAs. Now sure maybe someone like Almora is more of a #5 or #6 hitter and only gets say 600 PAs in 150 games but the point in using it is that it's generally a mid point between the max someone like Bryant might get and a lessor full time player may get.

 

[TL1961]

Also for what it's worth, I'd rather the cubs go after Masahiro Tanaka via trade if he doesn't opt out. I think he's a good buy low candidate.

Agreed. He fits the profile of guys they pursue.

 

[TL1961]

Keep Russell and Baez as your DP combo and don't think twice about it.

Happ can play some 2B and some LF. Baez can move to 3rd when Bryant sits.

But plug Addy and Javy in the middle and stop changing the lineup every day.

 

[CSF77]

Keep Russell and Baez as your DP combo and don't think twice about it.

Happ can play some 2B and some LF. Baez can move to 3rd when Bryant sits.

But plug Addy and Javy in the middle and stop changing the lineup every day.

Well when Zo is your clean up today there is a problem with the control tower