IST: Cubs @ San Diego

[chibears55]

So, for those questioning whether a 10-15 game improvement was possible this year (over 162 games), through 40 games - not quite a quarter the way through the season, the Cubs' record is a 10 game improvement.

They were 13-27 last year through 40.

Doing that with a bullpen that was struggling, a crappy bench, inconsistent 4 n 5 in rotation, and a couple of struggling bats in lineup. ..

 

[Parade_Rain]

They got righted as a team very quickly and this is shaping up to be a season with promise.

 

[fatbeard]

They got righted as a team very quickly and this is shaping up to be a season with promise.

The starting pitching was eventually going to stabilize, and the offense is going to be there throughout the year, especially as it warms up. If they can get the bullpen nailed down (some of that will be mitigated by guys getting healthy) they're going to be a very dangerous team. They still need one more SP and some kind of solution in LF to get past the Cardinals, though. But even if they just stand pat the rest of the year, a wild card is a very real possibility.

 

[Mr. Cub]

Great game from Hendricks. Hopefully he can build off this and it wasn't just a fluke...

Who was the last Cub to throw a shutout? Hammel or Arrieta?

 

[CSF77]

The starting pitching was eventually going to stabilize, and the offense is going to be there throughout the year, especially as it warms up. If they can get the bullpen nailed down (some of that will be mitigated by guys getting healthy) they're going to be a very dangerous team. They still need one more SP and some kind of solution in LF to get past the Cardinals, though. But even if they just stand pat the rest of the year, a wild card is a very real possibility.

Cards and Dodgers are not going to stand pat. Both lost a TOR type. Dodgers need is greater. So I see the Dodgers going after Cole. They could loose Grenkie and he makes sense for them. Just like the Tigers going after Price did. Cards could be in the mix for Kaz. Not sure if they will as they are doing fine as it is.

Right now things are looking better but the thing that glares at me is Wada's BAA the third time around. .360. That means he has to be perfect to get to the 6th inning each time. That will happen about 1-2 times per year at best. So seeing him as a answer is pretty unrealistic. IMO he needs a cut fastball that he can cut in on the hands to a RH batter. Right now he is living with a 4 seem up then a change combo. He uses his slider vs LH hitters more. So he is basicly a 2 pitch piter in a AB. A cutter would work for him.
he lacks a 12-6 hammer so his success has been by teams not seeing him more than anything vs pure stuff.

My real question is if they do nothing: How many wins do the Cubs get this year?

If it is under 90 they need to add. If it is at 90 they can wait until the off season and spend with out spending talent.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Cards and Dodgers are not going to stand pat. Both lost a TOR type. Dodgers need is greater. So I see the Dodgers going after Cole. They could loose Grenkie and he makes sense for them. Just like the Tigers going after Price did. Cards could be in the mix for Kaz. Not sure if they will as they are doing fine as it is.

Right now things are looking better but the thing that glares at me is Wada's BAA the third time around. .360. That means he has to be perfect to get to the 6th inning each time. That will happen about 1-2 times per year at best. So seeing him as a answer is pretty unrealistic. IMO he needs a cut fastball that he can cut in on the hands to a RH batter. Right now he is living with a 4 seem up then a change combo. He uses his slider vs LH hitters more. So he is basicly a 2 pitch piter in a AB. A cutter would work for him.
he lacks a 12-6 hammer so his success has been by teams not seeing him more than anything vs pure stuff.

My real question is if they do nothing: How many wins do the Cubs get this year?

If it is under 90 they need to add. If it is at 90 they can wait until the off season and spend with out spending talent.

As currently put together they look like a 86-90 win team to me. Obviously they are on pace to win 93 but without help I see a bit of a fade at some point. They've played 40 games, they'll hit 80 games at the heart of trade season and if they're on the same pace you're talking 46-34 and that really has to be a team that buys. Of course sometimes deals get by you and go to other teams. Fortunately this is a savvy FO we can trust to most likely get something done even if not's something we could project or predict. I think they need another bat to get through slumps and if someone doesn't think they need to add a starting pitcher and likely a reliever they're not paying attention. Maybe the bat is internal with Baez, maybe it's not. With the strong WC contending field this year I don't 88 wins gets you in the playoffs, I think it's 90 or 91. If you want them to get there they will have to be buyers.

 

[CSF77]

Great game from Hendricks. Hopefully he can build off this and it wasn't just a fluke...

Who was the last Cub to throw a shutout? Hammel or Arrieta?

He had a good game. Until he starts to string together good games I'm not forming a opinion on him. He falls into was Arrieta went through last year. Except his talent level in much less.

Way it looks is he had a good feel for his sinker and that was his bread and butter pitch. He went to it 79 times in 108 pitches. But he also has a change, cutter, 4 seem and a rare curve he can go to so he could mix in different sequences each time through the line up. I would like to see him mastering his curve as he rarely goes to it and a strong one can buckle hitters knees and become a strong strike out pitch. That would up his value.

 

[CSF77]

As currently put together they look like a 86-90 win team to me. Obviously they are on pace to win 93 but without help I see a bit of a fade at some point. They've played 40 games, they'll hit 80 games at the heart of trade season and if they're on the same pace you're talking 46-34 and that really has to be a team that buys. Of course sometimes deals get by you and go to other teams. Fortunately this is a savvy FO we can trust to most likely get something done even if not's something we could project or predict. I think they need another bat to get through slumps and if someone doesn't think they need to add a starting pitcher and likely a reliever they're not paying attention. Maybe the bat is internal with Baez, maybe it's not. With the strong WC contending field this year I don't 88 wins gets you in the playoffs, I think it's 90 or 91. If you want them to get there they will have to be buyers.

1/4 the way about right now. They project at 92 wins if they stay at this pace. Thing is this is with the hitters struggling. We have to believe that Russell will get better and Castro will get past his slump. Soler not being able to hit a breaking pitch is still hitting .270. He figures that out he could jump to .300 fast. I think he has one of the highest contact rates vs fastballs in the majors so it makes sence why the book on him is breaking pitches.

I still think they need a LF and a SP. Cogland and Wada are just filler. Even with Wada's strong SO's you can't depend on him to go deep into games. Coghlan is a .200 hitter. getting into a few HR's do not matter here. We saw this with Olt and Baez. It is about the body of work vs the few connects they make.

I see a few holes in the team still that are problematic. When the season pushes on these holes become more and more noticeable.

 

[Jailbreak]

Not really worried about Hendricks. The fifth spot is a concern. I also agree about left, but that probably won't be hard to fix.

At least we're having a conversation about the playoffs. This team is close.

Bryant's athleticism has surprised me a bit.

 

[Parade_Rain]

World Series or bust! [/BTTF]

 

[TC in Mississippi]

There are 9 games left in May. About a month ago I asked if people would be happy with 28-21 at the end of May and the answer was a universal yes. I'm going to be close on this, 5-4 seems right especially if they can pull off the sweep of the Diamondbacks. Going to be tough to win either series with the Nationals or Royals but you never know.

 

[CSF77]

Not really worried about Hendricks. The fifth spot is a concern. I also agree about left, but that probably won't be hard to fix.

At least we're having a conversation about the playoffs. This team is close.

Bryant's athleticism has surprised me a bit.

4th spot is the concern. Hendricks should be the 5. They need another LH lower in the rotation to split up some RHSP. Scott Kazmir should be the main target. He shouldn't cost much in prospects and it still frees them up for a off season spending on who they want to add long term.

It would be the best answer vs overspending.

Ideal trade 2 B grade's for Kazmir. Basically 2 lower level unknown prospects in the 20-30 range. Then go after Cueto next off season. Rotation: Cueto, Lester, Arreta, Hammel, Hendricks. Just adding a 200 IP arm at the top stabilizes the staff. Thus taking IP off the pen. They can afford to have 2 $$ SP contracts with the farm providing cash relief in position players.

LF: The easiest answer is to promote Baez then demote Russell and have him man 3B for 2 weeks. When he has the feel for it promote him and move Bryant to LF. This might end up happening anyways. It closes a door for Schwarber but that just forces him to have his catching skills vs his bat getting him into the show.

 

[Parade_Rain]

That easiest answer seems like a lot of work for this season. Baez played CF in HS. It isn't going to take him but a couple of games to adjust to OF and specifically LF. For this season if people want Baez to come up, I would strongly consider him for LF. I understand why you want to shuffle these players, but I would wait until the off-season to do that, if that's the route to go.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

4th spot is the concern. Hendricks should be the 5. They need another LH lower in the rotation to split up some RHSP. Scott Kazmir should be the main target. He shouldn't cost much in prospects and it still frees them up for a off season spending on who they want to add long term.

It would be the best answer vs overspending.

Ideal trade 2 B grade's for Kazmir. Basically 2 lower level unknown prospects in the 20-30 range. Then go after Cueto next off season. Rotation: Cueto, Lester, Arreta, Hammel, Hendricks. Just adding a 200 IP arm at the top stabilizes the staff. Thus taking IP off the pen. They can afford to have 2 $$ SP contracts with the farm providing cash relief in position players.

LF: The easiest answer is to promote Baez then demote Russell and have him man 3B for 2 weeks. When he has the feel for it promote him and move Bryant to LF. This might end up happening anyways. It closes a door for Schwarber but that just forces him to have his catching skills vs his bat getting him into the show.

i think Kazmir will prove to be too expensive as a rental. Beane is expected to ask for 1st round talent. Would you trade McKinney back to him for 1/2 a season of Kazmir? I would not.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

That easiest answer seems like a lot of work for this season. Baez played CF in HS. It isn't going to take him but a couple of games to adjust to OF and specifically LF. For this season if people want Baez to come up, I would strongly consider him for LF. I understand why you want to shuffle these players, but I would wait until the off-season to do that, if that's the route to go.

I tend to agree with that unless they trade Castro, and then I plug him in at SS and swap he and Russell out next year.

 

[CSF77]

That easiest answer seems like a lot of work for this season. Baez played CF in HS. It isn't going to take him but a couple of games to adjust to OF and specifically LF. For this season if people want Baez to come up, I would strongly consider him for LF. I understand why you want to shuffle these players, but I would wait until the off-season to do that, if that's the route to go.

I tend to agree with it. Mostly Because Bryant is pretty solid as a D 3B.

 

[CSF77]

i think Kazmir will prove to be too expensive as a rental. Beane is expected to ask for 1st round talent. Would you trade McKinney back to him for 1/2 a season of Kazmir? I would not.

I would give up Bijan Rademacher and Rob Zastryzny at most. If he wants higher end he could have 1 10-20 range. So Jeimer Candelario or Jen-Ho Tseng.

I do not believe in giving up legit talent for a rental. Hendricks at the time was a lower end prospect. Add Vill who was the 2nd best 3B at Tex and that was a decent return. What they did for Garza just stupid over paying on Tex's part. Just stupid.

 

[Boobaby1]

1/4 the way about right now. They project at 92 wins if they stay at this pace. Thing is this is with the hitters struggling. We have to believe that Russell will get better and Castro will get past his slump. Soler not being able to hit a breaking pitch is still hitting .270. He figures that out he could jump to .300 fast. I think he has one of the highest contact rates vs fastballs in the majors so it makes sence why the book on him is breaking pitches.

I still think they need a LF and a SP. Cogland and Wada are just filler. Even with Wada's strong SO's you can't depend on him to go deep into games. Coghlan is a .200 hitter. getting into a few HR's do not matter here. We saw this with Olt and Baez. It is about the body of work vs the few connects they make.

I see a few holes in the team still that are problematic. When the season pushes on these holes become more and more noticeable.

Reddick and Kazmir solve them both. They have had dealings with Beane before. Might be worth a look see.

 

[SilenceS]

Iowa manager said he has heard of no plans to move Baez anywhere. He will stay at second and short. A lot of people and cubs insiders believe Baez will be called up at some point and the most likely option is for Bryant to move to left. I know Bryant is loved and he has made some good plays at third, but he has had issues. He is slow to bunts. He still has throwing problems from time to time. His height gets in the way because of his load. Players have beat out routine plays to him. He has a big arm and can run well. I still think he is destined for the OF.

 

[SilenceS]

If anyone would like to make an Arizona thread. I don't make them fancy like y'all, so I will leave it up to one of you.