I don't want to give up on Happ either, the only Cub i have no more hope or faith in is Heyward, of course i wish him to prove me wrong
See I get why people are that way about Heyward but looking through is data the other night I'm actually a bit encouraged. I wont dive fully into it again but the gist is he's always been a ground ball hitter and this year he looks like something completely different. His flyball rate is like 50% higher than his career rates. Balls aren't falling which is killing his BABIP and thus his average. But he's hitting the ball with more exit velocity. The last time he's hit the ball this hard was 2010 when he hit 18 HRs and that year he had a 2ish GB/FB rate. He's currently at 1ish this year or in other words he's hitting twice as many flyballs.
One of the issue with Heyward reaching the power people always saw he could have but never put up was he hit so many ground balls. And despite the news coverage of his retooled swing in 2017 the data really didn't suggest he was doing anything different. This year he clearly looks different from a data standpoint. Obviously the results aren't there right now. He's hitting way too many infield flys and not enough line drives. But this could be something that just takes a little time. If and when he gets a bit more comfortable with it this version of Heyward would be much more interesting IMO.
The common complaint many have on him is he effectively was the ground ball to 2nd hitter. However, assuming this added loft in his swing is real when those type of hits come they are going to be fly balls into the alley rather than ground balls at 2B. Additionally, his HR/FB rate is currently half his career rate and 1/3 what it was in 2010 when he had similar hard hit rates. If you assume he just goes back to his career rate, 50% more flyballs would take him from a 10-15 HR hitter to 15-20 and if he reaches those 2010 levels of HR/FB you're talking about a 30 HR type hitter.
