IST: Cubs vs. Brewers(Opening Day)

beckdawg

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Spent a bit of time playing around with some NPB stats to get some idea on expectations for Suzuki. Two of the most recent NPB players to come over are Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo. Not the deepest sample size or anything Akiyama's k rate fell off 5% vs his NPB career stats. Tsutugo was 6% which would give Suzuki around a 21% k rate for an expectation. Akiyama's walk rate was 1% better in the MLB thus far. Tsutugo's is basically bang on identical. If Suzuki's walk rate remains the same it would be 12.7%.

In terms of power Tsutugo's iso was .230 in NPB. It's been .178 in the majors. Akiyama's was .153 in NPB an .050 in the majors. So that's like some where between a 50-100 point drop. Suzuki was a .232 ISO.

It's tough to classify what ones BABIP will look like but those 3 indicators tend to be decently predictive. With that being said if you're looking at players with a 12% walk rate or higher, a 21% k rate or lower and a .170 ISO or higher since 2016 the list is pretty short. You're looking at the following dudes

Mike Trout
Freddie Freeman
Alex Bregman
Joey Votto
Juan Soto
Carlos Santana
Aaron Hicks
Andrew McCutchen
Jesse Winker

The low end of those names is roughly a 110 wRC+. Obviously you wouldn't predict some of the higher names on there but even someone like Winker if he plays decent defense is pretty promising.
 

CSF77

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I've read that we can expect a 3 month struggle in his first season due to adjustments to MLB talent. Japan is more trick pitching. MLB is velocity.

He will adapt. Talent adjusts
 

SilenceS

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Spent a bit of time playing around with some NPB stats to get some idea on expectations for Suzuki. Two of the most recent NPB players to come over are Shogo Akiyama and Yoshi Tsutsugo. Not the deepest sample size or anything Akiyama's k rate fell off 5% vs his NPB career stats. Tsutugo was 6% which would give Suzuki around a 21% k rate for an expectation. Akiyama's walk rate was 1% better in the MLB thus far. Tsutugo's is basically bang on identical. If Suzuki's walk rate remains the same it would be 12.7%.

In terms of power Tsutugo's iso was .230 in NPB. It's been .178 in the majors. Akiyama's was .153 in NPB an .050 in the majors. So that's like some where between a 50-100 point drop. Suzuki was a .232 ISO.

It's tough to classify what ones BABIP will look like but those 3 indicators tend to be decently predictive. With that being said if you're looking at players with a 12% walk rate or higher, a 21% k rate or lower and a .170 ISO or higher since 2016 the list is pretty short. You're looking at the following dudes

Mike Trout
Freddie Freeman
Alex Bregman
Joey Votto
Juan Soto
Carlos Santana
Aaron Hicks
Andrew McCutchen
Jesse Winker

The low end of those names is roughly a 110 wRC+. Obviously you wouldn't predict some of the higher names on there but even someone like Winker if he plays decent defense is pretty promising.
He has the ability to have a top 5 season for Japanese player. Basically, ohtani and matsuior however you spelt his name and ichiro. Guy has light tower power. He is a big boy
 

SilenceS

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I've read that we can expect a 3 month struggle in his first season due to adjustments to MLB talent. Japan is more trick pitching. MLB is velocity.

He will adapt. Talent adjusts
I don’t know about trick pitching but he said the arm angles and wind ups are different here.
 

jooo83

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My favorite teams
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  1. Chicago Bulls
  1. Chicago Bears
  1. DePaul Blue Demons
Heyward should not be starting. I hope giving him the starting nod on opening day is a respect thing and then going forward he will be relegated to a late inning defensive replacement role.
 

zack54attack

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Looks cold at wrigley.

No thanks.
 

CSF77

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I don’t know about trick pitching but he said the arm angles and wind ups are different here.

Shoot pitch is popular there with the splitter. Neither is used much anymore.
 

CSF77

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Unlikely happening?
 

zack54attack

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Nico!
 

Diehardfan

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Looks cold at wrigley.

No thanks.
You aren't the only one....there's a shitload of empty seats. I never could figure out that with all the Domes and warm weather cities, why MLB couldn't schedule more games to side step some of the weather in April.
 

Diehardfan

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Hendriks out in the 6th.....early peak at this re-worked bullpen.
 

CSF77

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You aren't the only one....there's a shitload of empty seats. I never could figure out that with all the Domes and warm weather cities, why MLB couldn't schedule more games to side step some of the weather in April.
95 here today. Sucks
 

wonky73

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HAPP!!!!! In summer that's a homer
 

CSF77

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Interesting that Heyward and Happ have both contributed. We can hope for a bit of 2020 love here.
 

knoxville7

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Interesting that Heyward and Happ have both contributed. We can hope for a bit of 2020 love here.
All it took was you bashing heyward and saying he’s a DFA guy. The universe knows you can’t be right, so he’s likely to be an all star this year ?
 

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