IST: Cubs vs Dodgers

[CSF77]

Fansgraph also did a piece on Bryant. Seems that he adjusted to the high fastball. That was the goto pitchers went to to beat him. He is making them pay now.

 

[CSF77]

But if you want to argue about the optimum line up:

Hoerner 2B. 182
Bryant LF 189
Rizzo 1B 108
Contreras C 123
Baez SS 112
Marisnick CF 157
Duffy 3B 108
Heyward RF 72

That way the producers are on the field. Heyward holds plus D (and a heavy paycheck) in RF and off sets his hitting. The rest really need to pick up their game to justify more playing time.

 

[knoxville7]

You are cherry picking a bit here.

But his ISO all time low. .125
BABIP .217. Again and all time low.
His walks all time low at 7.7 and his SO are at a low of 20.9

Bottom line wRC+ 63
That is why I love this stat as it compiles all of this info and gives a overall value to a hitter.

Bryant 189
Hoerner 182
Marisnick 157
Contreras 123
Baez 113
Rizzo 108
Duffy 108
Sogard 79
Heyward 72
Happ 67
Bote 63


This shows an allotment of playing time. You ride the producers and make the others situational.

Bote is a PH right now. Duffy holds a 108 which is 8% over league avg production. Bote is 37% under league avg production.

So you can cherry pick stats but more PA means more 37% under.

To max out IMO is to make him situational where he excells. Like high leverage PH at bats or against SP that he has crushed. Then with that extra time off get him to rework his approach as there is something off to cause a complete dump in production.

you really don’t understand sample sizes do you? You’re going to fixate on 78 at bats and ignore career trends. And also duffys 48 at bats. But okay suuuuuure

 

[CSF77]

you really don’t understand sample sizes do you? You’re going to fixate on 78 at bats and ignore career trends. And also duffys 48 at bats. But okay suuuuuure

I don't care about career trends. I see it as play who is producing now.

Here is the problem.

You like Bote so you are making a argument off of like vs production.

But you are not arguing Happ or Pederson. Joc has more of a argument than Bote has. But moving Bryant to the OF is saying Bote > Happ, Pederson or Duffy.

Now I never said shit can. I said make them situational where they have advantage then get them working out why. Not toss more PA's and cross your fingers. That never works when there is a mechanical issue.

When a person is off by that much it is a hole in their swing that teams are exploiting. Or he is flattening his swing path which is killing his production.

Either way there is a core problem going on with Bote and Happ and Joc. But if you have to make a argument you play who you paid. Joc wins.

 

[CSF77]

Regardless all that this has told me is Bryant is back.He is ranked #7 in basebal189 wRC+ Trout leads at 255. He is #2 behind Acuna.

Now you can argue sell sell sell. He is blowing up at the right time. Or you can pay the man and adjust around him because he is that good.

Either argument is a good on and neither is wrong. The Cubs have the 4th largest market so there is no reason why that they can not pay him. It comes down to does Tom want to?

My opinion right now? Shoot I would pay the man. Now I am not 100% behind this as I have my share of doubts but you know you have to look at it as value. Bryant is a beast. He plays 5 positions and will put the team first. And he will age into 1B.

Unless there is is massive haul coming back I would rather see Jed pay the man and build a team around him.

Let's face it. Nico is becoming a star in his own right. That forces playing time. Baez has a incomplete game and there is no reason to lock up payroll with a guy that is a yoyo.

Rizzo made his bed. If he wants 26 AAV GL to him in his endeavors. I would rather pay for a guy that leads the team vs supports the cast.

 

[knoxville7]

I don't care about career trends. I see it as play who is producing now.

Here is the problem.

You like Bote so you are making a argument off of like vs production.

But you are not arguing Happ or Pederson. Joc has more of a argument than Bote has. But moving Bryant to the OF is saying Bote > Happ, Pederson or Duffy.

Now I never said shit can. I said make them situational where they have advantage then get them working out why. Not toss more PA's and cross your fingers. That never works when there is a mechanical issue.

When a person is off by that much it is a hole in their swing that teams are exploiting. Or he is flattening his swing path which is killing his production.

Either way there is a core problem going on with Bote and Happ and Joc. But if you have to make a argument you play who you paid. Joc wins.

couple things, bote has a career low K rate this year...there’s no hole in his swing. And if you’re talking about playing whomst you’ve committed $ to, that would be bote not joc, seeing as how joc is on a 1 year deal and bote is on a multi year deal. Whomst do you think has more potential to be around in the coming seasons?

 

[CSF77]

couple things, bote has a career low K rate this year...there’s no hole in his swing. And if you’re talking about playing whomst you’ve committed $ to, that would be bote not joc, seeing as how joc is on a 1 year deal and bote is on a multi year deal. Whomst do you think has more potential to be around in the coming seasons?

Flattening a swing path would cause a lowering of ISO also.

If Bote is aiming for being a contact hitter that is fine. But the argument is in wRC+. 63 is 27% below league avg.

Again cherry picking one stat doesn't make a strong argument.

Adding PA's to a 63 wRC+ player doesn't magically make them better. What makes them better is a platoon where you minimize that weakness.

Yet again you don't comment on Bote> Joc, Happ or Duffy.

So getting to the real bits.

Hoerner is on the DL.
Happ is recovering from that collision.
Joc returned yesterday.

So Bryant at 1B
Bote 2B
Duffy 3B
Joc LF
Marisnick CF

Injuries and rest days has forced this one.

 

[beckdawg]

Should the cubs remain middling, Jake Marisnick looking like an interesting trade piece. Obviously wont bring the whole farm with him but as a depth type trade for a speedy guy with defense who's hitting well... cubs probably can get a top 30 org prospect type for him.

 

[CSF77]

And results are:

Marisnick 2 RBI.
Joc 1 hit.
Duffy 2 for 2
Contreras has been in a nose dive. .222 BA.
Bote 0 for.
Heyward 0 for.

So the O has been the bench.

Well I can't wait for Nico to return. O needs a boost at the top. Joc leading off is awk.

 

[CSF77]

Should the cubs remain middling, Jake Marisnick looking like an interesting trade piece. Obviously wont bring the whole farm with him but as a depth type trade for a speedy guy with defense who's hitting well... cubs probably can get a top 30 org prospect type for him.

Well IDK. I rather like the guy and it wouldn't pain me to see him take over CF. Happ had 1 good game then hit the shelf. Before that failed lead off.

I for one would be all in on Nico leading off when he returns. He is more of a spark plugs. Happ strikes out far too much and I would rather David move him around again. His strength was his versatile style of play. Going to 3B or RF etc. Adding a left or right bat as needed. This lead off bit is just not him. It never has and never will be with him struging to keep under 30% strike outs.

 

[beckdawg]

Well IDK. I rather like the guy and it wouldn't pain me to see him take over CF. Happ had 1 good game then hit the shelf. Before that failed lead off.

To what end? He's 30 right now and the assumption being the cubs are out of it in 2021. Assuming Davis isn't total shit in AA, he'll likely be knocking on the door by june/july next year if not sooner. I wouldn't really fret over having to find a CF for maybe a half a year on a likely non-competitive team.

 

[CSF77]

On the lead off topic.

The Cubs problem has not been lacking a lead off.

Fowler did great at it.

Joe went with some weird concepts after that and didn't utilize LaStella at all. Even though he became a great lead off after going to the halos.

David is making the same mistakes. Happy (struggles) Contreras (struggles) Joc (joke).

Nico is the ideal guy. Contact hitter that drives to ball. Not afraid to walk.

As far as now:. Duffy, Sogard, Marisnick. Some decent mix and match types to see what they bring.

The issue as I see it is there is a misconception that more pitches seen = great lead off. No. Good OBA=Good lead off. It is a very simple thing to understand. Out=bad. On base = good.

 

[knoxville7]

Flattening a swing path would cause a lowering of ISO also.

If Bote is aiming for being a contact hitter that is fine. But the argument is in wRC+. 63 is 27% below league avg.

Again cherry picking one stat doesn't make a strong argument.

Adding PA's to a 63 wRC+ player doesn't magically make them better. What makes them better is a platoon where you minimize that weakness.

Yet again you don't comment on Bote> Joc, Happ or Duffy.

So getting to the real bits.

Hoerner is on the DL.
Happ is recovering from that collision.
Joc returned yesterday.

So Bryant at 1B
Bote 2B
Duffy 3B
Joc LF
Marisnick CF

Injuries and rest days has forced this one.

you say I’m cherry picking but I at least gave a few different numbers. You’re giving just one stat, and in an extremely small sample size to boot. If you think bote will be a .188 hitter all season, you’re smoking crack.

I’ve commented on bote > those guys you mentioned. I did so when I said the cubs are best with KB in the OF, and bote at 3rd. You already said you didn’t watch the double header...so you missed all the nice defensive plays he made at 3rd on top of driving in 4 runs in the double header.

and again, bote is signed to a team friendly multi year deal. Duffy and joc are on 1 year deals. They have no future with the cubs, bote does. And Happ just sucks

 

[CSF77]

To what end? He's 30 right now and the assumption being the cubs are out of it in 2021. Assuming Davis isn't total shit in AA, he'll likely be knocking on the door by june/july next year if not sooner. I wouldn't really fret over having to find a CF for maybe a half a year on a likely non-competitive team.

Davis shouldn't be a part of the conversation at this point.

Marisnick is not going to bring back much. Unless you start him in CF and he breaks out like LaStella did with the opertunity. It is not out of reach at all and his wRC+ is signaling start him.

Regardless I would be concerned with 2021. 2022 is a whole new scenerio. The top 3 are in AA and you have to expect Iowa next year. Joc has a opt. Cubs have a opt on Marisnick. Heyward has a deal. Happ Arb2. Bote MLB deal. And so on.

So just going with what we know:

Heyward
Pederson
Contreras
Hoerner
Happ
Marisnick

All can return. Then you have to fill the gaps. Nico could move around. Happ can move. You want some stable posts and CF and RF can be that. SS is a strong market. If you invest that is a wise choice Cubs have strong depth here but we are talking about 17 YO players that are going to need 4 years to mature. So Nico at SS makes sense until then. 2B the Cubs could target Jonathan Schoop. Add some power up the middle to replace Javy. If they resigned Bryant 3B would be locked up with Bote freeing Bryant to move. In 4 years when the next wave comes up then Bryant moves to 1B and most likely Hernandez takes over 3B and Howard at SS.

​

 

[Discus fish salesman]

I would most certainly move Bryant. Hes been inconsistent throughout his career. Also injury prone and I don't think he will ever be a guy that stays healthy consistently. He's going to want a long contract where he will likely be on a significant decline the last few years. Hard pass on extending him

 

[CSF77]

you say I’m cherry picking but I at least gave a few different numbers. You’re giving just one stat, and in an extremely small sample size to boot. If you think bote will be a .188 hitter all season, you’re smoking crack.

I’ve commented on bote > those guys you mentioned. I did so when I said the cubs are best with KB in the OF, and bote at 3rd. You already said you didn’t watch the double header...so you missed all the nice defensive plays he made at 3rd on top of driving in 4 runs in the double header.

and again, bote is signed to a team friendly multi year deal. Duffy and joc are on 1 year deals. They have no future with the cubs, bote does. And Happ just sucks

I gave a metric. wRC+. You are the one that keeps pointing to .188. obsess much? I also posted his walks being low. His ISO being low. His BABIP being low. I suggested level swing path or a hole in his swing as a possibility. You countered with his SO rate is so low that there can not be a hole. Conjecture on both cases.

Pitchers can pitch to contact. A low ISO and BABIP with low strike outs and low walks means pitchers are pitching to weak contact and he is playing along.

 

[CSF77]

I would most certainly move Bryant. Hes been inconsistent throughout his career. Also injury prone and I don't think he will ever be a guy that stays healthy consistently. He's going to want a long contract where he will likely be on a significant decline the last few years. Hard pass on extending him

Define inconsistent.

Do you mean playing worse with injury.

I would call Javy inconsistent. Every swing is a home run swing and most of the time the pitcher it blowing high heat by him. But make a mistake bye bye.

Bryant has overcome his kryptonite. The high fast ball. This production is not a fluke. A fluke would be the pitching is just hanging mistakes more than not. An adjustment is acknowledge a weakness. Work on a solution. Put it into practice on a every day basis.

But my point was if you are going to make the investment avoid incomplete players (Javy) or supporting cast (Heyward or Rizzo). Rizzo is a great personality but 26M AAV you really need more that a 108 wRC+. 16M sure. Love Rizzo. But not that much.

The bottom line is Bryant is pushing 150+ wRC+ pretty much every year that he is healthy. He ages into 1B. But until then he can move around. But if Jed dumps 200M+ at him I would expect a bit more protection of that investment.

I just think that Bryant wants to be a Cub. Jed has been pretty much silent on him. So who knows. Boras has done extensions with structure to keep tax in check and his client happy that the team can build around him vs being him and junk.

Enough of that stuff. I made my argument. Trade him for a haul or retain and build around him. Cubs have nothing at 3B of starting quality. SS they have Nico. 2B they can sign a bat first. 1B push Happ or Joc there. Then let time work and get the next generation MLB ready.

 

[Discus fish salesman]

Define inconsistent.

Do you mean playing worse with injury.

I would call Javy inconsistent. Every swing is a home run swing and most of the time the pitcher it blowing high heat by him. But make a mistake bye bye.

Bryant has overcome his kryptonite. The high fast ball. This production is not a fluke. A fluke would be the pitching is just hanging mistakes more than not. An adjustment is acknowledge a weakness. Work on a solution. Put it into practice on a every day basis.

Yeah his bad play has generally been due to nagging injuries. I don't think he'll ever avoid that long term

 

[knoxville7]

I gave a metric. wRC+. You are the one that keeps pointing to .188. obsess much? I also posted his walks being low. His ISO being low. His BABIP being low. I suggested level swing path or a hole in his swing as a possibility. You countered with his SO rate is so low that there can not be a hole. Conjecture on both cases.

Pitchers can pitch to contact. A low ISO and BABIP with low strike outs and low walks means pitchers are pitching to weak contact and he is playing along.

umm no, I was the one that brought up his babip and walk rate. And I mentioned his career numbers and with risp. So no, I didn’t give one metric. You’re impossible to have any rational discussion with, as you’re constantly all over the place and making shit up. Thus, it’s really my fault for trying to engage with you. I’ll refrain from making that mistake again in the future

 

[CSF77]

Yeah his bad play has generally been due to nagging injuries. I don't think he'll ever avoid that long term

That is why I would rather lock him in at 3B for 4 years. Cut the OF as that has been the cause more than not. When Hernandez is ready move him to 1B. He will be 34 then and 1B is a good spot for his bat then.